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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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AndyD

aka andydumi
Explain why you think young people will go for the GOP on economics. The economy completely tanked when they were running things. Their only economic policy for the last 6 years has been "No" and "Cut taxes for rich people!" I don't see that selling well.

Indeed. Promises won't hold much water considering the amount of stonewalling currently going on. Essentially I don't think promises from either party can be taken seriously, only actual actions and votes on issues over the recent years.
 

kehs

Banned
With all the over qualified people dropping out of the workforce and all the menial minimum wage no history needed jobs that Obama has fluffled up his job numbers with, you'd think the young people would be the ones to benefit from this shitty economy.
 
Indeed. Promises won't hold much water considering the amount of stonewalling currently going on. Essentially I don't think promises from either party can be taken seriously, only actual actions and votes on issues over the recent years.

I think it is going to take more than just "I'll vote for the other guys and see if they can do better."

-GOP Jobs programs? Nope.
-Support green energy (Which generates a lot of jobs)? . . . Nope.


What is the GOP economic plan?
-Immigration? . .. . I guess you could say they are more hawkish on this . . . but are people lining up to go pick lettuce or mow lawns? I don't see this as much of an economic issue.
-Deficits? . . . Does this really hurt the economy? Lots of economists are slamming our government for reducing the deficit too fast. We've relied completely on monetary policy (The Fed) instead of any fiscal policy (government spending) to get the economy moving. I don't think has worked well.
-Tax cuts? Just stahp. If Tax cuts were the magic economy elixir, we should be swimming in jobs.

Am I missing something? Their policies seem to be largely "Do nothing" and that is what has been happening since 2010. If this is a bad economy then the GOP deserves to share the blame.
 
Don't forget also that younger voting age populations will become more diverse than ever before in future elections. If Republicans do better among white youths it will likely be canceled out easily by more Hispanics and blacks voting.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Presidential polls don't matter at this point IMO. Give Paul time to campaign, win the nomination*, do events, etc and I genuinely believe he'd do well with young voters. He wouldn't beat Hillary amongst young people but wouldn't lose them 2008 style. I think young people have 6 years worth of experience in this shitty economy to at least give a decent republican a chance.

*not saying he will, just noting a hypothetical.

What are you smoking, and can I have some?
 
So he's down 1, based on Nate Silver's analysis that internal polls are +6 in favor of the preferred candidate. Sounds about right.
Republican internals skew that analysis. Nate just likes to play the "both sides do it!" beltway game.

Democrats' internals have been far more accurate in previous elections. In 2010 Reid's internal pollster was the only one that had him winning.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Another GOP talking point bites the dust:

The recovery in America’s job market is finally spreading to industries with good pay after years of being concentrated in fields with low wages.

Hiring has picked up steam in areas such as construction, manufacturing and professional services in recent months – sectors with a median hourly wage of at least $20. Nearly 40 percent of the jobs created over the past six months have been in high-wage industries, compared with just a quarter during the last half of 2013
, according to an analysis by the National Employment Law Project for The Washington Post. Meanwhile, growth in many low-paying jobs has leveled off or even declined.

...

“The mix of jobs is improving,” said Ryan Sweet, director at Moody’s Analytics, which found that growth in mid-wage jobs has accelerated to an average of 1.5% in 2014, from 1% for the two years prior. “As the economy begins to grow consistently above its potential, we will see more middle class jobs being created.”

This bump in middle class hiring will also give a boost to wage growth. Already, the 1.3 million private sector jobs created this year are paying better: $867 per week, on average, versus the $843 that the existing 117 million private sector workers earn, according to Capital Economics.

Americans are more confident that they can find a good job than any time since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007. Some 35% of Americans say now is a good time to find a quality job, according to a recent Gallup Poll. The share had fallen to as low as 8% in late 2011.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/us-economy-adding-better-jobs-not-just-more-jobs
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
God, I really dislike Karl Rove:

The Arkansas spot goes after Pryor on Medicare, ObamaCare and Social Security, seemingly looking to muddy the issue after recent Democratic attacks on Rep. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) Medicare views.

The ad accuses of Pryor of talking about raising the Social Security retirement age and calls on him to “protect our Medicare by repealing ObamaCare.”

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/health-care-debate-turned-upside-down-arkansas

Is The Nation considered good and reputable?

Yep.
 
Is The Nation considered good and reputable?
They've been better. They're great for a left perspective. Some of their stuff gets to salon levels but its always worth reading.

Don't read their Russia coverage though or most of their foreign affairs, they're big in to contrarianism and write from a very elitist paternalistic ivy tower, they'll excuse most actions of anyone not named the US or Europe (it was the reason hitchens left). They're letters and essasy in the back are always great though. There was a great peace on that very issue the other week.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
You guys ready for the next Obama scandal?

Government Accountability Office says Pentagon violated law with Bergdahl drop

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon broke the law when it swapped Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, a prisoner in Afghanistan for five years, for five Taliban leaders, congressional investigators said Thursday.

The nonpartisan Government Accountability Office said the Defense Department failed to notify the relevant congressional committees at least 30 days in advance of the exchange — a clear violation of the law — and used $988,400 of a wartime account to make the transfer. The GAO also said the Pentagon's use of funds that hadn't been expressly appropriated violated the Antideficiency Act.

"In our view, the meaning of the (law) is clear and unambiguous," the GAO wrote to nine Republican senators, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and various committees. "Section 8111 prohibits the use of 'funds appropriated or otherwise made available' in the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2014, to transfer any individual detained at Guantanamo Bay to the custody or control of a foreign entity' except in accordance" with the law.

(...)

Spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby defended the Pentagon's actions, saying that as Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel stated in his congressional testimony earlier this year, the Defense Department "acted lawfully in the operation to recover Sgt. Bergdahl, a judgment that was supported by the Justice Department."

"The administration had a fleeting opportunity to protect the life of a U.S. service member held captive and in danger for almost five years," Kirby added. "Under these exceptional circumstances, the administration determined that it was necessary and appropriate to forgo 30 days' notice of the transfer in order to obtain Sgt. Bergdahl's safe return."

(...)

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, a member of the Intelligence Committee, said it was "completely disingenuous" for the administration to suggest that notifying Congress might have compromised the transfer because dozens of administration officials knew well in advance.

"It's not hard to imagine that the president didn't notify us until after the fact because he knew the proposed transfer would have been met with opposition," Collins said in a statement Thursday. "The president's decision is part of a disturbing pattern where he unilaterally decides that he does not have to comply with provisions of laws with which he disagrees."
I guess Obama somehow knew Republicans were going to vote against saving Bergdahl despite their widespread appeals to Obama to bring Bergdahl home.
 

Ecotic

Member
I thought I'd share this observation here, being someone who specializes in this type of thing. What is this chart and why does it matter? It's the S&P 500 long-term chart showing the roaring bull market we've been in for years now. But look what's happening, the 'wedge' is closing. It's been totally noticeable to anyone whose job involves markets that the 'run and rest' cycle of markets has been shortening and shortening. Two years ago a 'run' lasted two months, and a restful pullback lasted two months. Now they last two to three weeks. It's because the wedge is closing and the range is getting narrower and narrower.

The wedge closes March 2015. What happens then? Either a break up or a break down, and given we're at such exhausted highs it's very highly statistically probable that you'll see a prolonged break down. To the uninitiated markets seem random, but this is actually very concerted behavior that is lining up just when the Fed's quantitative easing policy is expected to end.

Why does this matter? Imagine it's 2016 and the Dow isn't at 17,000 anymore, maybe it's at 12,000. Recessions come every 7 years on average and we're due. Just in time for everyone to look at their 401Ks and be feeling pretty shitty about the party in charge on election day.

14995549412_02f85308af_b.jpg
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I thought I'd share this observation here, being someone who specializes in this type of thing. What is this chart and why does it matter? It's the S&P 500 long-term chart showing the roaring bull market we've been in for years now. But look what's happening, the 'wedge' is closing. It's been totally noticeable to anyone whose job involves markets that the 'run and rest' cycle of markets has been shortening and shortening. Two years ago a 'run' lasted two months, and a restful pullback lasted two months. Now they last two to three weeks. It's because the wedge is closing and the range is getting narrower and narrower.

The wedge closes March 2015. What happens then? Either a break up or a break down, and given we're at such exhausted highs it's very highly statistically probable that you'll see a prolonged break down. To the uninitiated markets seem random, but this is actually very concerted behavior that is lining up just when the Fed's quantitative easing policy is expected to end.

Why does this matter? Imagine it's 2016 and the Dow isn't at 17,000 anymore, maybe it's at 12,000. Recessions come every 7 years on average and we're due. Just in time for everyone to look at their 401Ks and be feeling pretty shitty about the party in charge on election day.

I spent 2 years of my life living off stock trading, so I'm somewhat specialized in it myself. I don't follow the market at this moment, but I do have a few criticisms based off the chart you have here.

1. The rising wedge never goes all the way to its close. Saying that pattern will hold until march 2015 seems extremely unlikely. I think about 75% the way to completion of the wedge is where the textbook drop would happen, which seems pretty soon.

2. You can't say the market is going to drop that far simply off that pattern. I think a textbook drop would be about 1-1.5 times the size of the wedge at it's opening height, but that's more of a feel thing that you use with other indicators to find the right target. The chart you posted doesn't look like it's going that far down based on what you posted.

3. I find wedge patterns are one of the weaker ones in general. Really do not like to predict anything off it until it gets a confirmed break of the trend line or I use other indicators.

4. I find technical trading to be far too inaccurate in general to try and bring it into other topics. There's no such thing as a sure thing in the stock market. Being right more often than wrong is all you need to make money, but that's not going to be the case when talking politics. You probably won't look any more wrong than the average predictor here, but it does feel a bit more silly to be wrong when you make your prediction look like a science instead of an opinion. I know because I've made that mistake myself.

5. Unless it's a huge, sudden drop, no one cares what the stock market does. This isn't the 90s anymore. All they care about is how easy it is for them to find a reasonably nice, good paying job for their skill level.
 

Ecotic

Member
I spent 2 years of my life living off stock trading, so I'm somewhat specialized in it myself. I don't follow the market at this moment, but I do have a few criticisms based off the chart you have here.

1. The rising wedge never goes all the way to its close. Saying that pattern will hold until march 2015 seems extremely unlikely. I think about 75% the way to completion of the wedge is where the textbook drop would happen, which seems pretty soon.

2. You can't say the market is going to drop that far simply off that pattern. I think a textbook drop would be about 1-1.5 times the size of the wedge at it's opening height, but that's more of a feel thing that you use with other indicators to find the right target. The chart you posted doesn't look like it's going that far down based on what you posted.

3. I find wedge patterns are one of the weaker ones in general. Really do not like to predict anything off it until it gets a confirmed break of the trend line or I use other indicators.

4. I find technical trading to be far too inaccurate in general to try and bring it into other topics. There's no such thing as a sure thing in the stock market. Being right more often than wrong is all you need to make money, but that's not going to be the case when talking politics. You probably won't look any more wrong than the average predictor here, but it does feel a bit more silly to be wrong when you make your prediction look like a science instead of an opinion. I know because I've made that mistake myself.

5. Unless it's a huge, sudden drop, no one cares what the stock market does. This isn't the 90s anymore. All they care about is how easy it is for them to find a reasonably nice, good paying job for their skill level.

1. I just meant by the wedge's end a break one way or another will have to happen, and the closer one gets to the end the more pressure there is to break one way or another. March 2015 is just the latest point, the 'deadline' by which a break will have to have happened.

2. Two years ago the Dow was at 12,000, so a textbook 1-1.5 drop of the wedge's height would put the Dow at around 12,000, which is on the conservative end of exactly the number I said.

3. Wedge patterns are weakest with small capitalization stocks that have the fewest participants with relatively high influence per participant, and increase in indicator strength as the market capitalization increases and therefore the number of trading participants with less individual influence increases and produce less variance. A market index like the S&P 500 that combines a vast number of companies would therefore be the most reliable of all wedge patterns. So I don't think it's unreasonable to say it's a significant pattern. It's certainly held strongly for a long time now.

4. Sure, technical trading by itself shouldn't have much relevance unless it can qualitatively explained to be the reflection of some real macro economic factor. In this case, it's quantitative easing ending.

5. It's been my experience that people care a lot about the worth of their retirement accounts.
 

East Lake

Member
I think we'll be alright. There's been no fiscal stimulus for a while so Yellen is buying time until she sees a repaired economy. Once she's comfortable easing will end and with low unemployment wages will start to grow as people aren't as desperate for low wage work. Then Hillary can take credit for the strong economy. Might be some problems in other markets that could create a few shocks but we'll be fine.
 
Democrats in Kansas might be shoving aside Chad Taylor, the official Dem running in the race, in order to pave the way for (Democrat-turned-independent) Greg Orman to win.

A state convention sponsored by Women For Kansas is being headlined by Orman and every Democrat running for state office... except Taylor.

Maybe that's looking too much into it, but it wouldn't be such a bad idea if the most recent PPP poll is accurate. Sen. Roberts' approval ratings are dismal (27 approve, 44 disapprove) and would lose to Orman by 10 points in a head to head match-up. But even if Kansas voters are willing to dump Gov. Brownback for a Democrat, they might not be willing to send a Democrat to the Senate to "rubber-stamp" Obama's agenda or whatever. An independent candidate like Orman would be best positioned to take advantage of that.

I don't think they should have Taylor withdraw, but rather just let the race play out like Maine's Senate election did in 2012 - keep him around as the token Democrat in the race so swing voters won't catch on that Orman will most likely caucus with the Democrats (Angus King made a show of "debating" which party to caucus with as if it wasn't extremely obvious). Turning it into Orman vs. Roberts could just result in Orman becoming the de-facto Democrat and losing anyway.

tl;dr - Roberts is weak, national Democrats should (and might have already started to) ditch the current D in the race and support the Independent.
 

Ecotic

Member
Folks in these parts know to take the long view when it comes to retirement. I see a drop of that size as an opportunity to invest more and at a bargain, given my investment horizon.

On a related note, I remember when the taper was supposed to destroy the stock market. What happened there?
Well it all depends upon your luck at the time of your planned retirement. If you turned 65 in 2009 you had to work an additional 5 years longer just to break even from where you were, plus you lose 5 years of gains that the market usually delivers. It's hard to take the long view when you don't have time to take the long view.

'Destroy' like another 2008 collapse? That was mostly just click-bait stuff you see on Yahoo Finance's home page sometimes, and some libertarians and Republicans who think the Federal Reserve is evil and their propping up of this economy necessarily precipitates doom.
 
I spent 2 years of my life living off stock trading, so I'm somewhat specialized in it myself. I don't follow the market at this moment, but I do have a few criticisms based off the chart you have here.

1. The rising wedge never goes all the way to its close. Saying that pattern will hold until march 2015 seems extremely unlikely. I think about 75% the way to completion of the wedge is where the textbook drop would happen, which seems pretty soon.

2. You can't say the market is going to drop that far simply off that pattern. I think a textbook drop would be about 1-1.5 times the size of the wedge at it's opening height, but that's more of a feel thing that you use with other indicators to find the right target. The chart you posted doesn't look like it's going that far down based on what you posted.

3. I find wedge patterns are one of the weaker ones in general. Really do not like to predict anything off it until it gets a confirmed break of the trend line or I use other indicators.

4. I find technical trading to be far too inaccurate in general to try and bring it into other topics. There's no such thing as a sure thing in the stock market. Being right more often than wrong is all you need to make money, but that's not going to be the case when talking politics. You probably won't look any more wrong than the average predictor here, but it does feel a bit more silly to be wrong when you make your prediction look like a science instead of an opinion. I know because I've made that mistake myself.

5. Unless it's a huge, sudden drop, no one cares what the stock market does. This isn't the 90s anymore. All they care about is how easy it is for them to find a reasonably nice, good paying job for their skill level.

Can we summarize this please?

Just tell me when I should sell all my stocks. Many of mine are at 400%+ gain since I bought them, is it time to drop and run?
 

gcubed

Member
Well it all depends upon your luck at the time of your planned retirement. If you turned 65 in 2009 you had to work an additional 5 years longer just to break even from where you were, plus you lose 5 years of gains that the market usually delivers. It's hard to take the long view when you don't have time to take the long view.

'Destroy' like another 2008 collapse? That was mostly just click-bait stuff you see on Yahoo Finance's home page sometimes, and some libertarians and Republicans who think the Federal Reserve is evil and their propping up of this economy necessarily precipitates doom.

If you were 65 and had your money that heavily into stocks you have other issues
 
The market is quite confused at the moment. There are all sorts of world geopolitical events happening (Russia/Ukraine/sanctions, Israel/Gaza, ISIS/Iraq, Libya meltdown, etc.) yet the markets seem strangely calm. And oil prices have dropped.

I don't know what to think either . . .

But the USA is doing pretty well. Cheap natural gas to buy and although oil prices are high (in a long term view), we produce much more domestically.
 

Ecotic

Member
If you were 65 and had your money that heavily into stocks you have other issues
I didn't say in my example that they were all in on stocks. You can have a smaller percentage in stocks and still be unable or unwilling to retire if a collapse like fall 2008 happens, depending upon the individual situation.
 

Fuchsdh

Member
Well it all depends upon your luck at the time of your planned retirement. If you turned 65 in 2009 you had to work an additional 5 years longer just to break even from where you were, plus you lose 5 years of gains that the market usually delivers. It's hard to take the long view when you don't have time to take the long view.

'Destroy' like another 2008 collapse? That was mostly just click-bait stuff you see on Yahoo Finance's home page sometimes, and some libertarians and Republicans who think the Federal Reserve is evil and their propping up of this economy necessarily precipitates doom.

Well there was also the issue of people pulling their money out at the height of the recession, which turns all those theoretical loses into very tangible ones. As long as you don't cash out you always have a chance to make it back in most cases (although admittedly if you don't have the cushion to ride the bumps pulling from retirement savings might have been their only option.)
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Well it all depends upon your luck at the time of your planned retirement. If you turned 65 in 2009 you had to work an additional 5 years longer just to break even from where you were, plus you lose 5 years of gains that the market usually delivers. It's hard to take the long view when you don't have time to take the long view.
You are not posting in a community of near-retirees though, so the advice in the thread is largely for those who are working on saving now. And even if you were, folks near retirement would hopefully have balanced their portfolio such that a dip in the stock market does not prevent them from retiring. Worst case, they make some withdrawals when the market is low, but have plenty left to see the upside as the market recovered.
 
Clickhol/The Onione is amazing guys

When I checked Facebook this morning, I noticed my nephew had made a politically charged post about something he appears to care passionately about. Being who I am, a divorced 52-year-old retail manager whose profile picture is the image of a car, I was immediately seized with the urge to make an appropriate response. For this reason, I ask: Would anyone care to engage in a rambling debate with me on my nephew’s politically charged Facebook post?

When I saw my nephew’s politically charged Facebook post, it occurred to me that my aggressive and radically misguided opinions could be valuable to my nephew and his friends if belligerently shoved down their throats through an extended, fairly condescending rant. That’s why I am interested in inserting myself into the comment thread and carrying out a lengthy and convoluted diatribe through a series of ad hominem attacks.

So, what do you say? Anyone care to join me?

Of course, there are other things I hope to do during our debate as well. Perhaps I’ll ramble on and on about something without saying anything at all. Or, maybe I’ll copy and paste an entire essay into a comment, refusing to separate the paragraphs so it’s just one giant block of unreadable text. If things get a little too heated, I know I can always go out with the old staple, “You’re too young to understand these things.”

Anyways, let me know if you’re interested. In the meantime, I’ll be commenting, “Is this supposed to be journalism?” on every article I can find.

http://www.clickhole.com/blogpost/care-engage-rambling-debate-me-my-nephews-politica-763
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
1. I just meant by the wedge's end a break one way or another will have to happen, and the closer one gets to the end the more pressure there is to break one way or another. March 2015 is just the latest point, the 'deadline' by which a break will have to have happened.
The further and further past the 75% mark, the more likely that it'll break through it upwards in my experience, which is partly why I don't like going in early on wedge patterns. Trendlines as resistance never seemed super strong to me, but that might just be me.

2. Two years ago the Dow was at 12,000, so a textbook 1-1.5 drop of the wedge's height would put the Dow at around 12,000, which is on the conservative end of exactly the number I said.
Unless that wedge starts earlier than that, at most the height is 186-162 = 24. Multiply that by 1.5 = 36. Then start it at the start of the breakline at a minimum of 192. 192 - 36 = 156. That's the absolute lowest it could go based off that one pattern before you need other patterns to say it might be worse. If you're really going to use an S&P chart to predict the DOW, the comparable percentage drop on the dow would bring it to about 14,000 at the worst. I would predict 14,800 where it would find the best support, something it saw exactly 1 year ago today, and wouldn't look that disastrous. You kind of need to take technical trading one step at a time, and predicting lower than that would be looking two steps into the future.

Can we summarize this please?

Just tell me when I should sell all my stocks. Many of mine are at 400%+ gain since I bought them, is it time to drop and run?
Technical trading is an analysis that is mostly used for shorter time frames. That makes it hard to translate into advice for people who are investing and not trading.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Early voted for the Primaries today. I really wish it was easier to find info on circuit judges. Even doing my best to look them up, I still felt I was largely throwing darts while blindfolded.
 
Early voted for the Primaries today. I really wish it was easier to find info on circuit judges. Even doing my best to look them up, I still felt I was largely throwing darts while blindfolded.

I felt this way voting in the Ohio Democratic primary a few months ago, I didn't know any of the candidates on the ballot. I hope that I didn't vote for any crazies though it doesn't matter anymore because Fitzgerald is gonna lose and bring down the entire ticket.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Kendra Turner was brought up right. She’s the kind of kid who says “yes sir” and “no ma’am.” She was "raised up right," with good manners as they are prone to say around Dyersburg, Tennessee.

So it was not out of character for Kendra to say “bless you” after a fellow classmate sneezed. But that common courtesy landed the 18-year-old in hot water.

Kendra said she was rebuked by her teacher at Dyer County High School and thrown out of class for violating the teacher’s ban on the words “bless you.”


The school would have us believe that a child telling a classmate “bless you” after a sneeze somehow caused a classroom commotion so severe it warranted a punishment? It’s a good thing Kendra didn’t offer her classmate a tissue.

“She said that we’re not going to have godly speaking in her class and that’s when I said we have a constitutional right,” Turner told Memphis television station WMC.

Another student sent the television station a photo taken inside the teacher’s classroom showing a list of banned words. Among the censored words are "dump," "stupid," "my bad," "hang out" and "bless you."

She wrote about her incredible story on Facebook. It was then picked up by the MomDot.com blog and then, as they say these days, the story went viral.

“I stood up and said, ‘My pastor said I have a constitutional right – 1st amendment freedom of speech,’” Kendra wrote on Facebook. “She said, ‘Not in my class you don’t.”

Kendra says she was tossed out of the class and sent to the principal’s office where things apparently went from bad to worse.

“The assistant principal said if I didn’t want to respect my teacher’s rules then maybe my pastor should teach me because my freedom (of) speech and religion does not work at their school,” she wrote.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/08/20/student-punished-for-saying-bless/
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Cross-posting:

Ignoring the fact that this story is probably bullshit, especially considering it's from a Fox News opinion page, this part:

“I stood up and said, ‘My pastor said I have a constitutional right – 1st amendment freedom of speech,’” Kendra wrote on Facebook. “She said, ‘Not in my class you don’t.”

Kendra says she was tossed out of the class and sent to the principal’s office where things apparently went from bad to worse.

“The assistant principal said if I didn’t want to respect my teacher’s rules then maybe my pastor should teach me because my freedom (of) speech and religion does not work at their school,” she wrote.
is absolutely true. Conservatives really need to read up on the Constitution some more with the way they like to scream about their rights all the damn time.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
If Im long term investing, why wouldnt I want to sell high and buy low at every cycle?

Because it requires you to successfully time the market, again and again, over a long period of time, which is almost impossible to do. History and data indicate just riding the market is the smarter long term strategy. (Thus, index funds.)
 
Because it requires you to successfully time the market, again and again, over a long period of time, which is almost impossible to do. History and data indicate just riding the market is the smarter long term strategy. (Thus, index funds.)

Due to some circumstances I haven't been able to start saving. Will start as soon as I can, though.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
If Im long term investing, why wouldnt I want to sell high and buy low at every cycle?

The big cycles you're probably talking about are mostly determined by fundamentals (ie government actions, economic indicators, and balance sheets), not technicals (tracking market psychology and trends through changes in stock price over time).

Because technicals rely solely on the price of stocks, they're best suited for knowing the exact price to buy and sell at, at the exact right time. It's very much an active, one step at a time style of trading. It's flaw is that it can't really predict things like the subprime crisis months ahead of time.

His reasoning that QE ending will mark the end of bull cycle is an example of fundamental reasoning and might be a good reason to believe we're nearing the top for now, but you still typically want to go with the trend as long as you can, and the trend is still up.
 
Scott Brown pitches a Reporter on their talking points, she declines. Brown then leaks story to Brietbart accusing Shaheen of 'outsourcing campaign'
http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/...graph-Carrying-Shaheen-s-Water-on-Outsourcing



Well . . . they are certainly the most active outside of Israel (and Syria). Sure . . . Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran have lots of equipment & troops but they apparently don't much interest in using them much.

Its a stupid quote. Its wrong on pretty much every level.
 
The big cycles you're probably talking about are mostly determined by fundamentals (ie government actions, economic indicators, and balance sheets), not technicals (tracking market psychology and trends through changes in stock price over time).

Because technicals rely solely on the price of stocks, they're best suited for knowing the exact price to buy and sell at, at the exact right time. It's very much an active, one step at a time style of trading. It's flaw is that it can't really predict things like the subprime crisis months ahead of time.

His reasoning that QE ending will mark the end of bull cycle is an example of fundamental reasoning and might be a good reason to believe we're nearing the top for now, but you still typically want to go with the trend as long as you can, and the trend is still up.

Well September/October is the traditional market crash season. If there is a forecast for a correction, wouldnt it make sense to sell at the end of August and buy once the crash looks to have run its course?
 

pigeon

Banned
Because it requires you to successfully time the market, again and again, over a long period of time, which is almost impossible to do. History and data indicate just riding the market is the smarter long term strategy. (Thus, index funds.)

Most notably, any sort of meaningful trading will incur trading fees, so your return rate has to be enough higher than an index strategy to outweigh your vastly increased overhead. Just sitting in a fund is basically free. Transaction cost is a big deal, which is part of why larger companies -- who can minimize this cost -- are willing to attempt high-frequency trading to maximize their return.
 

Cat

Member
White House Rolls Out New Birth Control Accommodation For Nonprofits

The new accommodation will allow religious nonprofits, such as Catholic schools and hospitals, to opt out of covering birth control by notifying the Department of Health and Human Services of their objections. HHS and the Department of Labor will then arrange for a third-party insurer to pay for and administer the coverage for the nonprofits' employees so that women still receive the contraceptive coverage guaranteed to them by the Affordable Care Act.

I haven't really seen this anywhere on GAF, just saw it trending on Facebook. It sounds like good news, yes?
 
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