Don’t make too much of any single poll. Focus on the average.
It’s possible that Brown is slicing into Shaheen’s lead, but there hasn’t been any sign from any other pollster that Shaheen’s edge is down to 2 percentage points. The other three surveys in the race taken after July 1 gave Shaheen an advantage of 5, 8 and 10 points. Before Thursday, no pollster over the past six months has given Shaheen anything less than a 3-point lead.
Moreover, it’s not like we haven’t been through this song and dance with UNH before. In 2012, the presidential campaign was as stable as perhaps any campaign in modern history. Even when the national polls moved around a lot, swing-state polling was fairly consistent in showing a small but clear Obama edge.
Yet, as many have pointed out online, the UNH poll was not part of this group. In late September, the Granite State Poll gave Obama a 15 percentage-point blowout win in New Hampshire. Next week, that lead was down to 6 points. Two weeks later, it was up to 9. Two weeks later, it was even. Two days later, the lead was back up, to 4 points. In the same span, the Huffington Post Pollster aggregate of polls never had Obama’s New Hampshire lead rising above 5 percentage points or dropping below 2 points.
