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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
The whole deficit hysteria has always been a gigantic joke. Republicans always say that the growing national debt is the greatest threat to the country since Hitler+Stalin+Al Qaeda+Ebola+Jane Fonda, and that we should do everything possible to prevent such a thing from happening...except increase taxes.

The debt is this massive, catastrophic, apocalyptic, world destroying scourge...but if we have to raise taxes then it's probably not that bad.

I love my grandchildren dearly, and would gladly give my life for them, but enacting tax hikes? Come on, now. I don't love them that much! Let's not go crazy now.

It bothers me greatly that few people have called them out on this bullshit.
 
Democrats get skewered for not supporting cuts like this. Pretty bad. There are people who really shouldn't have any say in what portions of government are funded. Current GOP is one of them. Spineless Democrats, perhaps.
I remember Franken's rant in his book about how Wellstone was attacked in his 2002 campaign by Bill Frist's group for supporting "wasteful spending" (a grant for aquatic research) in a budget that Frist supported. And Wellstone's son shamed Frist about it at his memorial while Frist tried to shrug it off as politics.

It's such bullshit, it's all a game to them.
 
The whole deficit hysteria has always been a gigantic joke. Republicans always say that the growing national debt is the greatest threat to the country since Hitler+Stalin+Al Qaeda+Ebola+Jane Fonda, and that we should do everything possible to prevent such a thing from happening...except increase taxes.

The debt is this massive, catastrophic, apocalyptic, world destroying scourge...but if we have to raise taxes then it's probably not that bad.

I love my grandchildren dearly, and would gladly give my life for them, but enacting tax hikes? Come on, now. I don't love them that much! Let's not go crazy now.

It bothers me greatly that few people have called them out on this bullshit.

The philosophy is that the government is compared to a bum. If you give him money, he's just going to waste it on booze and drugs, instead of helping himself, because it was his reckless spending that put him there...even if it wasn't his fault and he actually would spend it on something useful.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
You wrote wall of words after wall of words and still didn't answer the very simple question - why do you think the deficit is too high?
Let me ask you it this way - we can all agree that there can be a hypotehtical situation when the deficit is not too high, so can you explain me how you differntiate between that case and now when you think it is?

Using CBO projections, keeping deficits as they are now will cause debt to GDP to flatline, leaving us at a new normal of double the debt to GDP that has been the average in recent times. I think we need a long term plan to enact policy which will change those projections to lower it back toward the average, so that we don't have to keep testing the upper limits of debt to GDP every single time we have a crisis.

CBO said:
For example, bringing debt back down to 39 percent of GDP in 2038—as it was at the end of 2008—would require a combination of revenue increases and cuts in noninterest spending (relative to current-law projections) totaling 2.1 percent* of GDP for the next 25 years.

In 2014, 2.1% of GDP would be about $360 billion. A $25 per metric ton of carbon gas tax would bring in an average of about $100 billion a year averaged over the next 10 years. Increasing the maximum taxable earnings for the Social Security Payroll Tax would bring $47 billion per year averaged over the next 10 years.

That long term plan needs to happen at some point, so now that we're at the very tail end of this recession, it's about the right time to do it.

Sorry if that doesn't answer your question but I think I've laid out what I believe to be the problem and the solution pretty well at this point. How about I ask you, assume in 2015, we see inflation slightly above 2% and unemployment at 5%, what would you recommend we do about our deficit? Should we be ok with keeping debt to GDP where it is now over the long term? At what point would you say austerity is required?

What? I'm sure you know better than this, potato.

You misunderstand. I'm not using that argument to support austerity. I'm using that to debunk his reasoning that the GOP is using austerity talk because of policy reasons, and not simple politics. I don't see what's wrong with that.
 

Diablos

Member
32OfrPp.jpg


Sorry I was bored on a saturday morning.
Oh my
 

Chichikov

Member
Using CBO projections, keeping deficits as they are now will cause debt to GDP to flatline, leaving us at a new normal of double the debt to GDP that has been the average in recent times. I think we need a long term plan to enact policy which will change those projections to lower it back toward the average, so that we don't have to keep testing the upper limits of debt to GDP every single time we have a crisis.



In 2014, 2.1% of GDP would be about $360 billion. A $25 per metric ton of carbon gas tax would bring in an average of about $100 billion a year averaged over the next 10 years. Increasing the maximum taxable earnings for the Social Security Payroll Tax would bring $47 billion per year averaged over the next 10 years.

That long term plan needs to happen at some point, so now that we're at the very tail end of this recession, it's about the right time to do it.

Sorry if that doesn't answer your question but I think I've laid out what I believe to be the problem and the solution pretty well at this point. How about I ask you, assume in 2015, we see inflation slightly above 2% and unemployment at 5%, what would you recommend we do about our deficit? Should we be ok with keeping debt to GDP where it is now over the long term? At what point would you say austerity is required?



You misunderstand. I'm not using that argument to support austerity. I'm using that to debunk his reasoning that the GOP is using austerity talk because of policy reasons, and not simple politics. I don't see what's wrong with that.
And I'll ask you again, what problems do you think the current debt to GDP ratio is causing?
And listen, I'm not saying we should never ever change our fiscal policy, that's mental, and lord know we can have a much better budgets than we've been getting (regardless of your desired deficit target), but again, considering inflation is low, bond yield is low and unemployment is high, we should not be prioritizing the deficit, especially that it is projected to keep on going down for about 4 years even if we do nothing.
 
Nobody gives a shit about the deficit. The sooner people embrace that reality, the better off we'll be. There will always be an attempt by the media to trump up the idea of the deficit because it's very easy to bullshit on, especially if someone doesn't understand math or how budgets or deficits work (see: the 2009 deficit). In sports terms, it's like ESPN harping on a player "wanting it more than the other team" or "he plays the right way." It doesn't mean anything and simplifies more complex stuff.

So what you have is an issue where two sides (republicans and the media) get to bullshit in a business where you're losing when you're explaining.
 

Chichikov

Member
Nobody gives a shit about the deficit. The sooner people embrace that reality, the better off we'll be. There will always be an attempt by the media to trump up the idea of the deficit because it's very easy to bullshit on, especially if someone doesn't understand math or how budgets or deficits work (see: the 2009 deficit). In sports terms, it's like ESPN harping on a player "wanting it more than the other team" or "he plays the right way." It doesn't mean anything and simplifies more complex stuff.

So what you have is an issue where two sides (republicans and the media) get to bullshit in a business where you're losing when you're explaining.
There isn't even an opposite side on this issue.
Democrats attacked Bush on the deficit, Clinton goes on parading his balanced budget (that once again, is mostly due to a surging economy he had little to do with and spending cuts that were in large part pretty damn bad) and now Obama and the partisan talking heads celebrating the reduction of deficit like it's this great goal in and by itself.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Nobody gives a shit about the deficit. The sooner people embrace that reality, the better off we'll be. There will always be an attempt by the media to trump up the idea of the deficit because it's very easy to bullshit on, especially if someone doesn't understand math or how budgets or deficits work (see: the 2009 deficit). In sports terms, it's like ESPN harping on a player "wanting it more than the other team" or "he plays the right way." It doesn't mean anything and simplifies more complex stuff.

So what you have is an issue where two sides (republicans and the media) get to bullshit in a business where you're losing when you're explaining.
Okay, you spewed out some generalities about how the politicians don't care. Okay, let me tell you for a fact, and Stephen A. can validate this, that Barack Obama listened to what I said for about what, eight years, he said I was his Howard Cosell. This year to his credit, he tuned out all the noise, that's all we saw in these midterms, he's reading The Hunger Games, he's meditating.

Don't ever use facts? That's all I use.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Do you have a link to that?

I'd like to see their assumptions between 2017 and 2037 in the alternative model.
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/45471-Long-TermBudgetOutlook_7-29.pdf

That quote was from the 2013 version because I took all that data off something I wrote a year ago. New one is apparently a bit larger, with 2.6 percent of GDP needed in each year beginning in 2015 and in 2015, 2.6 percent of GDP would equal about $465 billion.

And I'll ask you again, what problems do you think the current debt to GDP ratio is causing?

Today, none, which is why I've focused on the long term in all my explanations, but long term plans does require actions in the short term. Would deficit cuts the type i'm referring to significantly hurt the recovery of the things you're worried about?
 

benjipwns

Banned
Thanks, I think figure 6-3/7-5 is more likely (than the cover or summary 1) because of things that result in figure C-1.
 

Chichikov

Member
Today, none, which is why I've focused on the long term in all my explanations, but long term plans does require actions in the short term. Would deficit cuts the type i'm referring to significantly hurt the recovery of the things you're worried about?
So you're saying we don't need to lower the deficit now, but we might do in the future, therefore we should do it now?
Doesn't make a whole lot of sense for me.

And I think that both carbon tax and removing the payroll tax cap are good policies, but not for fiscal reasons.
 
The whole deficit hysteria has always been a gigantic joke. Republicans always say that the growing national debt is the greatest threat to the country since Hitler+Stalin+Al Qaeda+Ebola+Jane Fonda, and that we should do everything possible to prevent such a thing from happening...except increase taxes.

The debt is this massive, catastrophic, apocalyptic, world destroying scourge...but if we have to raise taxes then it's probably not that bad.

I love my grandchildren dearly, and would gladly give my life for them, but enacting tax hikes? Come on, now. I don't love them that much! Let's not go crazy now.

It bothers me greatly that few people have called them out on this bullshit.

The worse thing is that as soon as they get the Whitehouse, all care about the deficit is immediately thrown out the window. At least that is they way it was with Reagan and Bush 2. Bush 1 cared about the deficit . . . so he got thrown out of office.
 
There isn't even an opposite side on this issue.
Democrats attacked Bush on the deficit, Clinton goes on parading his balanced budget (that once again, is mostly due to a surging economy he had little to do with and spending cuts that were in large part pretty damn bad) and now Obama and the partisan talking heads celebrating the reduction of deficit like it's this great goal in and by itself.

But the talking heads aren't talking about the reduction of the deficit - they're still inviting Paul Ryan to tell us how high and out of control the deficit is. It's dropped to "normal" levels and no one has anything to say, because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's just a talking point, and while you're right that both sides use it for the most part it's a republican staple. And the Serious People media plays along.
 

Chichikov

Member
But the talking heads aren't talking about the reduction of the deficit - they're still inviting Paul Ryan to tell us how high and out of control the deficit is. It's dropped to "normal" levels and no one has anything to say, because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's just a talking point, and while you're right that both sides use it for the most part it's a republican staple. And the Serious People media plays along.
It came from the Republican party no doubt, they tried to persuade people that they shouldn't want government programs, when that failed spectacularly, they moved to try to scare them into thinking they can't have them, or else...
Nah, he ran into this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm–Rudman–Hollings_Balanced_Budget_Act after the Savings and Loan collapse.

Reagan signed tax increases that were almost 3% of GDP in 1988 to stave the bill's "sequester" off.

EDIT: So, he unintentionally fucked Bush over to avoid spending cuts lol
Best Bush got dealt a rough hand by history.
 

benjipwns

Banned
2 out of 3 ain't too bad.
I mean he teamed up with them: http://johnsonbushandnixonkilljohnfkennedy.blogspot.com/
CIA_zps45019900.jpg

The night before Kennedy was killed, a party was held, at the Dallas home of oil millionaire Clint Murchison, where there was a secret meeting of about 25 men that took place to discuss the assassination and the cover up of JFK the next day. President Kennedy was about to have Lyndon Johnson, and Billie Sol Estes, indited and put in jail for running a vast scam where they were getting $21 million dollars a year federal agricultural subsidies for "growing" and "storing" non-existent crops of cotton. At this meeting was some of Kennedy's most powerful enemies, R.L. Thornton former Dallas Mayor, Texas Governor John Connally, Cliff Carter Chairman of the Democratic committee, H.L Hunt a Texas oil billionaire who wanted Kennedy killed because he had the Congress eliminate the tax breaks for the oil companies, which was costing the Texas oilmen 300 million dollars a year. Also John J McCloy the CEO of Chase Manhattan Bank, Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations; and co-founder of the CIA; He was an agent of the Rothschild's and a high-ranking member of the Illuminati, a former president of the World Bank, who control the Federal Reserve, and who wanted Kennedy dead; Because on June 4, 1963, JFK had stripped the Federal Reserve Bank of all its power to loan money to the U.S. government at 10% interest, by signing Executive Order No. 11110 that returned to the U.S. government the power to issue currency interest free, without going through the Federal Reserve.

George Brown (of Brown and Root) was also at the meeting, he controlled all the big Military contracts and he offered Johnson lucrative kick backs to have Kennedy killed, so they could continue to keep the Vietnam war going for as long as possible. Johnson hired Cord Meyer, CIA Assassin Master to put together the death squad to kill Kennedy. Cord Meyer's hated Kennedy because his wife Mary Meyer was said to have had a affair with JFK. Johnson started the entire Brown & Root, Halliburton military takeover of the U.S government, which reaped him huge sums of money from the escalation of the Vietnam War. For example Johnson owned 200 thousand in Bell Helicopter stock which was worth 6 million by the time he left the White House. 5500 U.S helicopters were shot down during the war which was good for business. Halliburton in those days was know as"Dow Chemical," which made billions on selling napalm, and agent orange.


Also at the meeting was Earl Cabell the Mayor of Dallas, and the brother of General Charles Cabell who was the Deputy Director of the CIA who was fired along with Director Allen Dulles, by Kennedy over the Cuba invasion and the Bay of Pigs fiasco, which nearly ended up in a nuclear confrontation with the Russians. The CIA wanted JFK dead because he had threatened to get rid of their corrupt Nazi clandestine organization and shred it into a thousand pieces. Also included at the meeting was Richard Nixon, FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover (33 degree Illuminati Freemason), Clyde Tolson the assistant Director of the FBI, Bill Decker (Dallas Sheriff), Clint Peoples (U.S. Marshall), Don Smith, Amon G. Carter owner of the Fort-Worth Star Telegram, B.R. Sheffield, George Owens, John Currington, Joe C. Yarbrough, W.O. Bankston, and Texas Governor John Connally. Johnson appointed Hoover Director of the FBI for life, not only to help cover up the JFK murder, but to make sure that there would never be any investigation into his involvement in the assassination.

George H. W. Bush and Richard Nixon joined Hoover that night in Dallas at the Murchison gathering on November 21, 1963 before Kennedy arrived the next day, according to alleged Kennedy co-conspirator and spotter Frank Sturgis. Sturgis’ explosive revelations about Bush and Nixon is also confirmed by a living witness who worked for Clint Murchison at the time of the assassination. Incredibly, not only did the witness collaborate their meeting prior to the assassination, but also a second gathering involving the alleged co conspirators (including the assassins and their spotters) who toasted and celebrated Kennedy’s death as they watched television reports the next night. People had seen George Bush in Dallas staying in the Adolphus Hotel, and Bush had spoke to a group of oil men in Dallas the night before the Assassination.

George Bush had worked for Clint Murchison in Haiti, and was also one of his business partner. At the time George H.W. Bush was the head of Zapata Oil, which was on an Island close to Cuba, and he was placed in charge of the CIA invasion of Cuba. In 1961 the Navy ship yard delivered three ships to the CIA agent in charge named George Bush, who immediately had the 3 ships painted to look like they were civilian vessels. Then he named these 3 ships after his wife, his home town, and his oil company. He named the ships: Barbara, Houston & Zapata. Any book on the history of the Bay of Pigs invasion will mention the names of these 3 ships. Again, this is just one more finger pointing at George Bush's involvement in organizing the Bay of Pigs invasion, and in sending his trained assassins to kill John F. Kennedy.

Considering the hatred that the CIA felt toward Kennedy over their failed invasion of Cuba and Bush's involvement in that same mission, it is obvious what Bush's feelings toward John F. Kennedy really were, and what a major role he played in bringing his assassin teams up from Cuba to kill the president. Although George H. W. Bush has admitted to being in Texas that day, he cannot account for his exact whereabouts at the time of the assassination. Some people believe that he was standing on the steps of the School Book Depository watching the whole thing.

http://jfkmurdersolved.com/bush3.htm

Though the Bush Family planned since the 1920s to take down Nixon:
http://whowhatwhy.com/2012/05/07/watergate-revelations-the-coup-against-nixon-part-1-of-3/
 

Chichikov

Member
They've stopped a monster, god bless big dick Johnson those Nazis...
also, LO-fucking-L at the idea that JFK wanted to curb the CIA, he and his brother were the biggest enablers of their bullshit.
 

benjipwns

Banned

And since I know you're wondering:
https://twitter.com/SenJohnMcCain/status/1972425520
John McCainVerified account
‏@SenJohnMcCain
Obama has more czars than the Romanovs - who ruled Russia for 3 centuries. Romanovs 18, cyberczar makes 20.
9:12 AM - 30 May 2009


They've stopped a monster, god bless big dick Johnson those Nazis...
also, LO-fucking-L at the idea that JFK wanted to curb the CIA, he and his brother were the biggest enablers of their bullshit.
My favorite part is just the random list of names of people who may or may not have been in Dallas at some point in time in the 1960s.
 
The Deficit is only a distraction. It's a bit of an issue, but not too much. The easiest way to reduce it would just be to spend less money on the Defense Budget, raise taxes, and invest in infastructure. You can't say it won't work because it has never failed. There are fairly easy ways to fix most of the problems we have, the issue is that they have downsides for elected officials. Vote to lower Defense Budget? You don't care about the troops! Vote to raise taxes? You're takin our money! Vote for stimulus? You want to waste tax payers dollars on bridges to nowhere! Politicians are too concerned with losing office and less concerned with actually making a difference.
 
Isn't the former the mechanism for the latter?

Yea I could see that. I had a weird connection in my head but the issue still remains that we have politicians that can stay in office for 10, 20, even 30+ years and not really contribute to any meaningful change. Why would they do the right thing or push for actual change if it could cost them their comfortable job in DC?
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
So you're saying we don't need to lower the deficit now, but we might do in the future, therefore we should do it now?
Doesn't make a whole lot of sense for me.

And I think that both carbon tax and removing the payroll tax cap are good policies, but not for fiscal reasons.

Now i'm getting pretty annoyed. I didn't realize this was a Fox news interview. I've tried to answer your questions in as many ways as I could in good faith, but I feel like you were just ignoring everything and trying to get me to simplify my answer just enough so that you can completely misrepresent my view. We're both even completely for the same policies, so it's not like we have any incentive to intentionally mislead each other here, so there's no need to be so hostile. It's just a difference of opinion on how to look at the economics of it.

Anyhow, this is what you asked:

And I'll ask you again, what problems do you think the current debt to GDP ratio is causing?

Do you think we can only care about debt to GDP once it's causing problems in the present? Debt is the type of thing that's liable to spike in crisis, like it has over the last 6 years and, as the CBO points out, bringing it down requires 25 years of some fairly major plans. If we wait until it's causing problems, it would be causing problems for a long time before it's fixed. That's obviously not the type of problem you wait to fix.

So maybe if you want me to get technical with it, my problem with the current debt to GDP ratio is that it doesn't allow enough headroom for future crisis. If we want to be able to do much bigger stimulus than what we saw in 2009 like we originally wanted, it'd be safer and easier to enact that if that overhead of too much debt isn't looming around as an honest potential problem.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Yea I could see that. I had a weird connection in my head but the issue still remains that we have politicians that can stay in office for 10, 20, even 30+ years and not really contribute to any meaningful change. Why would they do the right thing or push for actual change if it could cost them their comfortable job in DC?
Maybe we could look into something like this:
Loganlifeclock.jpg


Pretty much.
If you can't tell, the jokes not for you.
 

Chichikov

Member
Now i'm getting pretty annoyed. I didn't realize this was a Fox news interview. I've tried to answer your questions in as many ways as I could in good faith, but I feel like you were just ignoring everything and trying to get me to simplify my answer just enough so that you can completely misrepresent my view. We're both even completely for the same policies, so it's not like we have any incentive to intentionally mislead each other here, so there's no need to be so hostile. It's just a difference of opinion on how to look at the economics of it.

Anyhow, this is what you asked:



Do you think we can only care about debt to GDP once it's causing problems in the present? Debt is the type of thing that's liable to spike in crisis, like it has over the last 6 years and, as the CBO points out, bringing it down requires 25 years of some fairly major plans. If we wait until it's causing problems, it would be causing problems for a long time before it's fixed. That's obviously not the type of problem you wait to fix.

So maybe if you want me to get technical with it, my problem with the current debt to GDP ratio is that it doesn't allow enough headroom for future crisis. If we want to be able to do much bigger stimulus than what we saw in 2009 like we originally wanted, it'd be safer and easier to enact that if that overhead of too much debt isn't looming around as an honest potential problem.
I don't think ignore anything, at least no willfully, I merely try to understand why you think we should reduce the deficit right now.
Currently the only think I can I understand from you is that there's a problem with the debt to GDP ratio, even though it's not currently manifesting itself in any measurable way and even though that ratio is not actually not going to go up any time soon.
I'm sorry, to me that not a good enough reason to focus on the deficit, especially since we can't even hit our inflation target.

If you don't want to answer my question directly, maybe you can explain to me what is your criteria to decide whether the deficit is too high, too low or just right.
The Deficit is only a distraction. It's a bit of an issue, but not too much. The easiest way to reduce it would just be to spend less money on the Defense Budget, raise taxes, and invest in infastructure. You can't say it won't work because it has never failed. There are fairly easy ways to fix most of the problems we have, the issue is that they have downsides for elected officials. Vote to lower Defense Budget? You don't care about the troops! Vote to raise taxes? You're takin our money! Vote for stimulus? You want to waste tax payers dollars on bridges to nowhere! Politicians are too concerned with losing office and less concerned with actually making a difference.
I think (I hope I don't misinterpret you) that you already implicitly accepted that idea that "lower deficit = good".
This is idea had plagued American politics for almost 30 years.
It's silly.
You almost in all cases want to have come deficit, and there should definitely be a discussion about what is the right level of deficit at any given time, it's an important (though a bit boring and technical) discussion to be had. But you really can't have it if we axiomatically think that the very concept of deficit is something we should fight against.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Currently the only think I can I understand from you is that there's a problem with the debt to GDP ratio, even though it's not currently manifesting itself in any measurable way and even though that ratio is not actually not going to go up any time soon.
Define "soon" because I assume the alternative baseline is much closer to likely.
 

Chichikov

Member
Define "soon" because I assume the alternative baseline is much closer to likely.
A few years, that's plenty of time.
Also, if I'm wrong and it shoot up, we can and should react to that. Personally I don't think anything terrible would happen if debt to GDP goes up a bit, I mean, what problem it is supposed to cause?
People warned about loss of confidence and how no one would like to buy US debt, but bond yields are fucking low.
 

benjipwns

Banned
A few years, that's plenty of time.
Also, if I'm wrong and it shoot up, we can and should react to that. Personally I don't think anything terrible would happen if debt to GDP goes up a bit, I mean, what problem it is supposed to cause?
People warned about loss of confidence and how no one would like to buy US debt, but bond yields are fucking low.
If you'll oblige assume for the sake of argument that the debt-to-GDP ratio grows by 5% a year for the next 20 years.

At what point is it time to react and how?

I guess, an easier way to put it since he probably made all these graphics himself, where on Paul Ryan's chart here does it become an issue and when does it need to be addressed:
eab75875-e106-43bc-8d72-e12975b18d16.jpg

This must be old because his later documents weren't getting it down to zero under the PATH TO PROSPERITY until 2080 assuming ahistoric economic growth.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Democrats are up to their old dirty tricks:
Perhaps the most hard-fought Senate race this year will be Colorado’s showdown between Democratic senator Mark Udall and Republican congressman Cory Gardner. The RealClearPolitics average of polls in the race shows Gardner holding a lead of 1.3 percentage points. The outcome may determine control of the U.S. Senate, and the margin of victory could be less than the 11,000-vote margin by which Democratic senator Michael Bennet was reelected in Colorado in 2010.

But there is a significant difference in this year’s Senate race. In 2013, a new Democratic state legislature rammed through a sweeping and highly controversial election law and convinced Democratic governor John Hickenlooper to sign it. The law, known as House Bill 1303, makes Colorado the only state in the country to combine two radical changes in election law: 1) abolishing the traditional polling place and having every voter mailed a ballot and 2) establishing same-day registration, which allows someone to appear at a government office and register and vote on the same day without showing photo ID or any other verifiable evidence that establishes identity. If they register online a few days before, no human being ever has to show up to register or vote. A few keystrokes can create a voter and a “valid” ballot. ​Once a ballot cast under same-day registration is mixed in with others, there is no way to separate it out if the person who voted is later found ineligible. Other jurisdictions that have same-day registration, such as Washington, D.C., treat the vote as a provisional ballot pending verification. Colorado immediately counts the vote.

“We have uniquely combined two bad ideas, both of which open the door to fraud and error along with creating huge administrative headaches,” warns Republican Scott Gessler, Colorado’s secretary of state. Along with the liberal Denver Post (the state’s leading newspaper) and a few Republican clerks from the state’s largest counties, Gessler fought passage of the law.

Wayne Williams is the clerk of El Paso County, which includes Colorado Springs, the state’s second-largest city. He says HB 1303 was sold as a way to “modernize” elections and increase turnout, but it’s fixing a system that wasn’t broken. In 2012, Colorado was among the top three states in the turnout of eligible citizens. Its number of registered voters that year climbed 13.7 percent, well above normal population growth. At the same time, the state’s online voter-registration system processed 250,000 changes submitted by voters, ensuring a more accurate and less duplicative record of the electorate.

Colorado’s system works well enough that when progressive activists placed a measure on the state’s ballot to impose same-day registration in 2002, it was rejected by more than 60 percent of voters despite a massive spending advantage for same-day-registration supporters. “There was general agreement it wasn’t needed and would increase fraud and confusion,” Bill Cadman, minority leader of the state senate, told me. He notes that on the same day Colorado rejected same-day voter registration in 2002, voters in liberal California rejected it by a similar landslide.

Having suffered stinging defeat at the polls, advocates of same-day registration were careful in 2013 to have it approved by the state legislature instead of the people. They rammed through the bill without any bipartisan input. It allowed those running voter-registration drives to delay delivery of the registrations they accepted, reducing the time available to check the data on them. It stripped county clerks of the ability to review new voter registrations and forced every Colorado voter to receive a mail ballot, including 800,000 who had clearly expressed their desire to vote only at polling places. Ballots will be mailed to people who don’t vote and no longer live in Colorado, because the law makes it very difficult to remove names from the voting rolls.

Williams, the El Paso County clerk, warns that the law “takes us back to the corruption of 19th-century Tammany Hall” and will reduce public confidence in the integrity of the balloting. Having voting conducted on an “honor system” is one thing, but Colorado’s law actually creates incentives for mischief that would test the honor of many campaign workers. Williams’s office has posted a video to YouTube showing just how easy it is to commit fraud in this election; Williams is also sharing tips to prevent fraud.

All mail-in ballots in Colorado will be ripe for abuse because “ballot harvesters” are allowed to go door-to-door and collect up to ten ballots with no effective enforcement if they collect more and deliver them at other times. Amazingly, these operatives can be paid based on the number of ballots they collect. The potential for harvesters to pressure voters to turn over ballots, open ballot envelopes, alter ballots, or even throw them away is real. “Voters would never hand over their credit card numbers to strangers ringing their doorbell, but they’re allowed to surrender their ballot,” says Marilyn Marks of the Rocky Mountain Foundation, an election-integrity group. She notes that secrecy controls are so lax that election workers who receive mail-in ballots can figure out how individuals voted in many counties.

Secretary of State Gessler says the same-day-registration provisions of HB 1303 create added potential for mischief. “We were told that eleven other states have that system, but during legislative debate, warnings based on the experience of those states were ignored,” he told me.

One of the examples he cites is Wisconsin. In 2008, a 68-page Milwaukee Police Department report confirmed that in the last presidential election, claims that thousands “more ballots [were] cast than voters recorded were found to be true.” The report found that there had been an organized effort by political operatives from out of state to swing the election. It concluded “that the one thing that could eliminate a large percentage of fraud or the appearance of fraudulent voting in any given election is the elimination of the on-site or same-day voter registration system.”

Gessler also point to Minnesota. A statewide watchdog group called Minnesota Majority scoured the 2008 election results and identified 1,099 felons who had voted illegally. Even though violators must essentially admit their crime before they can be charged, prosecutors managed to secure 177 convictions of fraud by felons. Such numbers matter — in 2008, Al Franken won his disputed Senate race by only 312 votes, and a local TV station found that nine out of ten illegal felon voters in that race said they had cast ballots for Franken. The Minnesota Majority report concluded that “while some ineligible felon voters registered in advance of the election and should have been flagged for challenge, the overwhelming majority who evaded detection used Election Day registration, which currently has no mechanism to detect or prevent ineligible voters.”

Gessler hopes his fears about election chicanery in Colorado will prove unwarranted, but he is concerned that the effort to “politicize” election laws will spread to other states. “Colorado didn’t need these changes,” he says. “We had one of the highest of all voter turnouts, and people could register everywhere, from online sites to the DMV. We can make it easy to vote and tough to cheat, but the law here now makes it impossible to maintain a healthy balance in both areas.”

Opponents of HB 1303 worry that because the new law leaves the door wide open for fraud, it could cast a taint over the results in this November’s critical races for senator, representatives, governor, and state attorney general. They advise people to treat their mail-in ballot as if it were cash and cast it in person at their local clerk’s office or at “voter service centers” that are authorized to receive them. “Treasure what your ballot represents,” says Marilyn Marks. “It’s your voice in how we govern ourselves.”
The New Republican Senate Majority should seat Gardner no matter what the fraudulent results say.
 

Chichikov

Member
If you'll oblige assume for the sake of argument that the debt-to-GDP ratio grows by 5% a year for the next 20 years.

At what point is it time to react and how?

I guess, an easier way to put it since he probably made all these graphics himself, where on Paul Ryan's chart here does it become an issue and when does it need to be addressed:
eab75875-e106-43bc-8d72-e12975b18d16.jpg

This must be old because his later documents weren't getting it down to zero under the PATH TO PROSPERITY until 2080 assuming ahistoric economic growth.
ROFL

But to answer the question (I think) you're asking -
When the inflation is higher than you want it, it's time to lower the deficit.
As for debt to GDP, there isn't really a compelling model suggesting that levels as you see in the US (or even places like England) hurt growth. There are short term indicators, like having to raise return on bonds in order to get people to buy them, but that isn't happening right now. Otherwise, this can and should wait until you reduce the levels of spare capacity in your economy.
 

benjipwns

Banned
When the inflation is higher than you want it, it's time to lower the deficit.
So then the U.S. government fucked up big time in the 1970s and early 1980s. Since they, for the most part, greatly increased deficits before, during and after WIP.

As for debt to GDP, there isn't really a compelling model suggesting that levels as you see in the US (or even places like England) hurt growth.
But assume the levels in the chart, for the sake of explaining the theory.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Should be WIN, whoops:
704311765_3c8163f9b7.jpg


As for THAT chart, clearly the lack of x-axis labels indicate that the projections are post WiiU/PS4/XB1 release.

I'm just asking if deficits don't matter, but debt-to-GDP does at some point, when it is, and what do you do to fix it then if you're to assume the estimates of everyone about future debt-to-GDP.
 
random thought that's not quite a complete aside to Deficit Chat:

does anyone else not really see much non-semantic difference between [social] liberalism and progressivism as movements in the united states since about 1960? because it really seems to me like there's not much distinction anymore on account of democrats using both terms essentially interchangeably.
 

Chichikov

Member
Deficits do matter, for example, they affect inflation, I'm just not sure why anyone would think that the deficit is too high right now, given that inflation is too low, bond yield are historically low and unemployment is too high.

And debt to GDP in and by itself doesn't matter, it can impact the economy in two ways -
  1. Something something, confidence bond vigilantes (i.e. you'll have to raise returns on your debt in order for people to buy it).
  2. Your payment on your debt are going to take a bigger part of your budget.
Of course 1 affects 2, and both of those things come into play in a single way - they can make it harder (read: you'll need higher taxes and/or lower spending than you would otherwise) to hit a specific deficit target.
But given that the current rate of debt to GDP and bond yield make it quite easy to hit any sort of deficit target you'd want (i.e. they're really a small part of the budget) and given that it look pretty damn stable in the next few years, I see no reason what so fucking ever to prioritize it over unemployment.

p.s.
With all that being said, I think it's important to remember that not all deficits are created the same, and the way we hit a specific deficit target do matter a whole lot, even for things like inflation. And hey, you can certainly have a better budget than what we got right now with a lower deficit (just like you can have one with a higher one), all I'm saying is that I see absolutely no reason to put reducing the deficit as a goal fro the next budget.
 

benjipwns

Banned
random thought that's not quite a complete aside to Deficit Chat:

does anyone else not really see much non-semantic difference between [social] liberalism and progressivism as movements in the united states since about 1960? because it really seems to me like there's not much distinction anymore on account of democrats using both terms essentially interchangeably.
The "prudes" of the "old vices" were cast out of cosmopolitan culture. I think it had something to do with that whole global war and then cold war thing.

given that inflation is too low
What should inflation be? 3% or whatever Milton said?

Answer as if you don't already know I think CPI is complete bullshit.
 
I think (I hope I don't misinterpret you) that you already implicitly accepted that idea that "lower deficit = good".
This is idea had plagued American politics for almost 30 years.
It's silly.
You almost in all cases want to have come deficit, and there should definitely be a discussion about what is the right level of deficit at any given time, it's an important (though a bit boring and technical) discussion to be had. But you really can't have it if we axiomatically think that the very concept of deficit is something we should fight against.

I don't necessarily think running a deficit is dangerous or anything like that, but removing such a deficit removes any argument about it. Scaling back things like Defense Spending would lead to (hopefully) increased spending on things like infrastructure spending and other policies that bolster the middle class--the ones that really drive economic growth. I'm not for eliminating the deficit, just readjusting what contributes to it.
 

Chichikov

Member
I don't necessarily think running a deficit is dangerous or anything like that, but removing such a deficit removes any argument about it. Scaling back things like Defense Spending would lead to (hopefully) increased spending on things like infrastructure spending and other policies that bolster the middle class--the ones that really drive economic growth. I'm not for eliminating the deficit, just readjusting what contributes to it.
I agree completely.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Here's the bad thing though. Defense spending probably bolsters the middle class more than anything else in the discretionary budget. Defense is the worlds largest employer and that doesn't count their contractors.

It's the largest "company" in the world in revenue too.

HHS is next and it only gets $78 billion vs. $527 billion.

And you could argue that the Intelligence agencies and Homeland Security are close enough to be part of that whole industrial complex.
 
And you could argue that the Intelligence agencies and Homeland Security are close enough to be part of that whole industrial complex.

DHS is a waste of taxpayer money. It's redundant and has done very little to help keep the country safe. Fuck, the TSA hasn't caught a single terrorist to date. In fact, the 1 well publicized incident (shoe bomber) made it past them with ease and was only caught by an onboard Air Marshall. A lot of these organizations are pointless, and we would be better off getting these people employed doing something other than degrading every innocent person trying to get on an airplane.
 
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