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[Black Mamba]

My response wasn't directed to Texas specifically, either. But I'm not sure SCOTUS would reach the question of whether sexual orientation is a suspect or quasi-suspect classification, because there are a number of ways to decide this case in favor of same-sex marriage without touching that issue. For instance, the Court could decide that, regardless of what standard applies, same-sex marriage bans fail to satisfy the rational basis test; or, they could decide that same-sex marriage is just a facet of the fundamental right to marry, and so apply strict scrutiny review on that basis; or, they could decide that same-sex marriage bans discriminate on the basis of sex, which is already treated as a quasi-suspect classification, and so dispense with it on that basis.

Rational basis would be extremely tough to pull off. I highly doubt they'd go that route because it would put a precedent into actually not rubber stamping most things the gov't want to do (and as weird as it is to say, under rational basis the bans be deemed illegal seems wrong). Not sure how the basis of sex would work.

And I don't see how they re-affirm a "fundamental right to marry" without addressing Equal Protection. I mean, that's basically Loving v Virginia in a nutshell. "Marriage is a fundamental right and denying it based on [insert classification} violates the 14th."

It essentially determined suspect classification.

Put it this way. The Court may even not outright state it, but it will exist once ruled. If they follow Loving v Virginia to the T, it exists.


Regardless of all this, homosexuals should be protected from such discrimination. I really don't care how it's done, just that it is done.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

From PPP.

Do not like...

This was obviously gonna play a part and while liberals shouldnt have jumped on that.

 

[thepotatoman]

From PPP.

Do not like...

It's basically showing a drop in Orman support from a drop in favorability, which was honestly to be expected and makes me think that's a very accurate poll. As with most other polls in kansas, there's lots of undecides that'll determine that election. Roberts at 37/47 favorability and Orman at 42/38 favorability suggests Orman will still benefit from the break. I don't know how popular advance voting is in kansas, but that starts in 2 days, so they might be running out of time to attack Orman into unfavorability.

I'm much, much more concerned with the SurveyUSA poll putting Gardner up 4 in Colorado. Like I said, the Denver Post won't shift any polls, and came out after the SurveyUSA poll was done, but I think it might really personify that Gardner is getting away with appearing moderate on women's health issues, and that's bad news when it is far and away Udall's number one platform he's focusing on.

I know polling probably biases republicans in Colorado, with the large Spanish speaking community being hard to poll, but that might not be enough if Udall lets it get too far away from him.

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's basically showing a drop in Orman support from a drop in favorability, which was honestly to be expected and makes me think that's a very accurate poll. As with most other polls in kansas, there's lots of undecides that'll determine that election. Roberts at 37/47 favorability and Orman at 42/38 favorability suggests Orman will still benefit from the break. I don't know how popular advance voting is in kansas, but that starts in 2 days, so they might be running out of time to attack Orman into unfavorability.

I'm much, much more concerned with the SurveyUSA poll putting Gardner up 4 in Colorado. Like I said, the Denver Post won't shift any polls, and came out after the SurveyUSA poll was done, but I think it might really personify that Gardner is getting away with appearing moderate on women's health issues, and that's bad news when it is far and away Udall's number one platform he's focusing on.

I know polling probably biases republicans in Colorado, with the large Spanish speaking community being hard to poll, but that might not be enough if Udall lets it get too far away from him.

Orman's support seems to be staying about the same - he's at 46% in a two-way which matches his previous result. Roberts just gained some of the undecideds.

SUSA just polled CO twice for some reason, and they actually only have Gardner up 2 in this one. The crosstabs are really bizarre, they have Gardner winning Hispanics 49-35 - there's no way. Like you mentioned pollsters always have trouble with Colorado because of Hispanics, and I easily see this as being like CO 2010 where the polling averages missed the result by 5.

They also had Romney winning CO at this time two years ago, btw.

 

[Black Mamba]

It's basically showing a drop in Orman support from a drop in favorability, which was honestly to be expected and makes me think that's a very accurate poll. As with most other polls in kansas, there's lots of undecides that'll determine that election. Roberts at 37/47 favorability and Orman at 42/38 favorability suggests Orman will still benefit from the break. I don't know how popular advance voting is in kansas, but that starts in 2 days, so they might be running out of time to attack Orman into unfavorability.

I'm much, much more concerned with the SurveyUSA poll putting Gardner up 4 in Colorado. Like I said, the Denver Post won't shift any polls, and came out after the SurveyUSA poll was done, but I think it might really personify that Gardner is getting away with appearing moderate on women's health issues, and that's bad news when it is far and away Udall's number one platform he's focusing on.

I know polling probably biases republicans in Colorado, with the large Spanish speaking community being hard to poll, but that might not be enough if Udall lets it get too far away from him.

More concerned about Brownback poll TBH.

Orman's support seems to be staying about the same - he's at 46% in a two-way which matches his previous result. Roberts just gained some of the undecideds.

SUSA just polled CO twice for some reason, and they actually only have Gardner up 2 in this one. The crosstabs are really bizarre, they have Gardner winning Hispanics 49-35 - there's no way. Like you mentioned pollsters always have trouble with Colorado because of Hispanics, and I easily see this as being like CO 2010 where the polling averages missed the result by 5.

They also had Romney winning CO at this time two years ago, btw.

On the flip side, it only has Gardner up 6 among white voters, which makes no sense at all. If he only wins that by 6, he can't possibly win. It's countered by the funky latino vote going for him in this poll.

Basically, this poll looks worthless. Note that I'm not skewing it up for Udall or anything. His white share vote is too high and latino vote share is too low. What I'm saying is the poll is so bad it probably is junk. Garder's lead may be even better than the 4 they stated. I don't know. The crosstabs are nonsense.

 

[Aaron Strife]

The Gardner+2 poll has Udall leading with white voters. By 1.

If he were even tied he should be winning easily.

SUSA is wayyy undersampling Hispanic voters, and the ones they're getting seem to be far more right-leaning than the state as a whole. They make up 6% of their poll. They were 12% of the electorate in 2010. Thanks to vote-by-mail being instated this year, there's no real point in focusing on likely voters because literally every registered voter will be getting a ballot in the mail. No one has to "turn out."

 

[theprodigy]

I'm just gonna go with "these Colorado polls should be ignored" cause nothing makes sense in there.

Spoiler

more likely: Xbox One wins September NPD or Udall wins white voters and/or loses Hispanics

 

[Aaron Strife]

dat Destiny bump

 

[Black Mamba]

The Gardner+2 poll has Udall leading with white voters. By 1.

If he were even tied he should be winning easily.

SUSA is wayyy undersampling Hispanic voters, and the ones they're getting seem to be far more right-leaning than the state as a whole. They make up 6% of their poll. They were 12% of the electorate in 2010. Thanks to vote-by-mail being instated this year, there's no real point in focusing on likely voters because literally every registered voter will be getting a ballot in the mail. No one has to "turn out."

I think we're at the point where it's too difficult to poll Colorado accurately. Anything and everything is on the table!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Rhomega Beta]

All this election season, I've been seeing ads for (but mostly against) Ann Kirkpatrick for Representative. Looking at the ballot, she's not even on it. What gives?

 

[JesseEwiak]

All this election season, I've been seeing ads for (but mostly against) Ann Kirkpatrick for Representative. Looking at the ballot, she's not even on it. What gives?

Overlap where the media area covers more than 1 congressional district?

 

[RustyNails]

This Kentucky debate....

"Do you believe global warming is real?"

 

[Josta]

This Kentucky debate....

"Do you believe global warming is real?"

On the bright side, neither of them said no...

 

[RustyNails]

On the bright side, neither of them said no...

Grimes said she believes its real and her work is to find balance between clean energy and coal jobs in kentucky

Mcconnell flatly laughed it off and quoted a line from george will where he said the scientists in 1970 believed we were heading towards ice age (ergo scientists are dumb dumbs).

 

[Josta]

Grimes said she believes its real and her work is to find balance between clean energy and coal jobs in kentucky

Mcconnell flatly laughed it off and quoted a line from george will where he said the scientists in 1970 believed we were heading towards ice age (ergo scientists are dumb dumbs).

I guess I just interpreted it differently. I read McConnell's answer as more of an "I don't care"

 

[thepotatoman]

Orman's support seems to be staying about the same - he's at 46% in a two-way which matches his previous result. Roberts just gained some of the undecideds.

SUSA just polled CO twice for some reason, and they actually only have Gardner up 2 in this one. The crosstabs are really bizarre, they have Gardner winning Hispanics 49-35 - there's no way. Like you mentioned pollsters always have trouble with Colorado because of Hispanics, and I easily see this as being like CO 2010 where the polling averages missed the result by 5.

They also had Romney winning CO at this time two years ago, btw.

That's really odd they had two polls of the same thing in the same day.

But yeah, that margin does make me feel a lot better.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Mcconnell flatly laughed it off and quoted a line from george will where he said the scientists in 1970 believed we were heading towards ice age (ergo scientists are dumb dumbs).

They also thought Lead and Mercury were pretty harmless since they occurred in Nature for a few centuries.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

How in the hell did Colorado turn so competitive?

 

[thepotatoman]

They also thought Lead and Mercury were pretty harmless since they occurred in Nature for a few centuries.

Because they didn't have the evidence to tell them otherwise at the time. But because current evidence might be overruled by future stronger evidence, we should probably just assume all evidence is bunk and move back to assuming lead and mercury are fine.

 

[RustyNails]

How in the hell did Colorado turn so competitive?

Obama won Colorado by 5.4 points

 

[neurosisxeno]

Because they didn't have the evidence to tell them otherwise at the time. But because current evidence might be overruled by future stronger evidence, we should probably just assume all evidence is bunk and move back to assuming lead and mercury are fine.

That's what I was getting at. We can't quote old scientific beliefs because they are increasingly ridiculous. People assumed Lead was fine because it had always been around and there was no in your face evidence it was bad. Climate Change is in a similar boat except we have better scientists who are certain it's a problem with a proponderance of evidence. To suggest it's just a fad is ridiculous.

 

[Wilsongt]

Less than a month until the Republican Wave. How are we celebrating?

 

[Oblivion]

So...how's the senate prospects looking so far?

Mcconnell flatly laughed it off and quoted a line from george will where he said the scientists in 1970 believed we were heading towards ice age (ergo scientists are dumb dumbs).

Isn't that some inane right-wing meme where they take a few articles that some scientists may have written about in the 70s but was never the consensus?

 

[Wilsongt]

I'm beginning to think I might need to ignore PD until after the November elections. It's just getting old and annoying.

 

[thezerofire]

the Global Cooling thing was also from taking the science out of context, and only happened in Newsweek one time, which was later retracted (in 2006)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling#1975_Newsweek_article

 

[benjipwns]

www.newrepublic.com never heard of it. Sounds like the name of a magazine Rand Paul would run after he creates Rapture where man is entitled to the sweat of his brow.

Naw, it was started by a guy who wrote things like this:

In becoming responsible for the subordination of the individual to the demand of a dominant and constructive national purpose, the American state will in effect be making itself responsible for a morally and socially desirable distribution of wealth.

Croly firmly believed that labor unions were “the most effective machinery which has yet been forged for the economic and social amelioration of the laboring class.” He wanted unions to have the right to negotiate contracts to ensure companies would only hire union workers. Unlike other progressives, Croly did not want the government to wage war against large corporations. He wanted the Sherman Anti-Trust Act repealed and replaced with a national incorporation act that would regulate and, if necessary, nationalize corporations. Croly had little sympathy for non-union workers and small businesses, declaring that “Whenever the small competitor of the large corporation is unable to keep his head above water, he should be allowed to drown.”

Croly’s strong central government needed strong individuals to lead it. His ideal was Abraham Lincoln, a person who was “something of a saint and something of a hero” and understood that democracy in America was greater than "rights"; it was a national ideal. Croly, like Hamilton, had a faith in the powerful few and sincerely believed that those few would remain democratic.

[Croly] said that a “great” and heroic revolutionary leader was needed in order to restore American pride; rejected the concept of parliamentary democracy; believed that society could be guided to enlightenment by an intellectual elite – a cast of “social engineers” whose “beneficent activities” could bring about a “better future”; and rejected individualism, saying that “an individual has no meaning apart from the society in which his individuality has been formed.”

In January 1927, Croly wrote a New Republic editorial, "An Apology for Fascism," endorsing an accompanying article, "Fascism for the Italians," written by the distinguished philosopher Horace M. Kallen, a disciple of John Dewey and an exponent of progressive pragmatism. Kallen praised Mussolini for his pragmatic approach, and in particular for the élan vital that Mussolini had infused into Italian life. True, Professor Kallen conceded, fascism is coercive, but surely this is only a temporary expedient. Noting fascism's excellent achievement in economics, education, and administrative reform, Kallen added that "in this respect the Fascist revolution is not unlike the Communist revolution. Each is the application by force …of an ideology to a condition. Each should have the freest opportunity once it has made a start…." The accompanying New Republic editorial endorsed Kallen's thesis and added that "alien critics should beware of outlawing a political experiment which aroused in a whole nation an increased moral energy and dignified its activities by subordinating them to a deeply felt common purpose." New Republic 49 (January 12, 1927), pp. 207–213.

And before he left:

In his first book on the subject, Public Opinion (1922), Lippmann said mass man functioned as a "bewildered herd" who must be governed by "a specialized class whose interests reach beyond the locality." The elite class of intellectuals and experts were to be a machinery of knowledge to circumvent the primary defect of democracy, the impossible ideal of the "omnicompetent citizen".

 

[Wilsongt]

*sigh*

However, the members of the National Coalition of Black Pastors and Christian Leaders, a client of the Thomas More Law Center, a public interest law firm based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, promised the news media and the American people that these African American church leaders would press on and fight for the traditional marriage between a man and a woman.

 

[speculawyer]

The Gardner+2 poll has Udall leading with white voters. By 1.

If he were even tied he should be winning easily.

SUSA is wayyy undersampling Hispanic voters, and the ones they're getting seem to be far more right-leaning than the state as a whole. They make up 6% of their poll. They were 12% of the electorate in 2010. Thanks to vote-by-mail being instated this year, there's no real point in focusing on likely voters because literally every registered voter will be getting a ballot in the mail. No one has to "turn out."

Yeah but they are all 'illegals'.


I think Udall should win without too much problem.

 

[speculawyer]

the Global Cooling thing was also from taking the science out of context, and only happened in Newsweek one time, which was later retracted (in 2006)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling#1975_Newsweek_article

Yeah, it is fucking embarrassing that people think some single article in Newsweek in 1975 suddenly represents all of 'science'. FFS.

"This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through . . . a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels."

Spoiler

-Lyndon Johnson, 1965!

 

[RustyNails]

Naw, it was started by a guy who wrote things like this:






And before he left:

I stand corrected. Let me modify my quote

www.newrepublic.com never heard of it. Sounds like the name of a magazine Bernie Sanders would run after he creates Rapture where man is not entitled to the sweat of his brow.

 

[JesseEwiak]

I honestly think Colorado at this point, is a bigger cocktease than even PA for Republican's at this point. At least Republican's win statewide races in Pennsylvania every so often. I think Udall and Hick will both win 52-47 or something along those lines.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I honestly think Colorado at this point, is a bigger cocktease than even PA for Republican's at this point. At least Republican's win statewide races in Pennsylvania every so often. I think Udall and Hick will both win 52-47 or something along those lines.

Yeah. I should say it wouldn't particularly surprise me if Gardner won but I still expect Udall to pull it out. Vote by mail traditionally boosts turnout.

 

[speculawyer]

Got my ballot today. I almost forgot there was an election coming up. Then again, I don't have anything interesting to vote on. I have a 3rd stringer Dem that you've never heard of for my Representative, Anna Eshoo. At least I assume that is who it is. She's been sitting in office for over a decade . . . . I could not tell you anything that she has done.

 

[Diablos]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I am getting the impression that it doesn't seem to matter what Obama does regarding immigration, be it before or after the midterms. If anything doing nothing just suppresses hispanic turnout. I don't believe he would have become any less popular with whites by acting on it.

In which case, he should tell any Democrat who dares defy him to fuck right off and sign the executive order asap.

I knew it. It is entirely about that would-be gotcha moment where she wouldn't say if she voted for Obama. You know if she had answered McConnell would blast that answer on TV 24/7. This is just another case of the media pulling its slack for the Republicans.

What is wrong with saying "yes, I did in fact vote for the President, but his time has come and gone and I'm here to work for Kentucky for the next six years." It's kind of rude to Obama, yes, but he'll get over it and if she has to talk the talk to unseat turtleface, welp...

I'm just so bummed Mitch will be keeping his seat most likely. So, so bummed.

 

[Wilsongt]

FUCK Lamar Smith.

Four times this past summer…. two congressional staffers spent hours poring over material relating to 20 research projects that NSF has funded over the past decade. Each folder contained confidential information that included the initial application, reviewer comments on its merit, correspondence between program officers and principal investigators, and any other information that had helped NSF decide to fund the project.

The visits from the staffers, who work for the U.S. House of Representatives committee that oversees NSF, were an unprecedented—and some say bizarre—intrusion into the much admired process that NSF has used for more than 60 years to award research grants.

The Republican aides were looking for anything that Representative Lamar Smith….could use to support his ongoing campaign to demonstrate how the $7 billion research agency is "wasting" taxpayer dollars on frivolous or low-priority projects, particularly in the social sciences.

There's no end in sight: The visits are expected to continue into the fall, because NSF has acceded—after some resistance—to Smith's request to make available information on an additional 30 awards.

http://io9.com/the-gop-intensifies-its-attacks-on-the-national-science-1645733575

 

[RustyNails]

What is wrong with saying "yes, I did in fact vote for the President, but his time has come and gone and I'm here to work for Kentucky for the next six years."

Because the bolded will become a soundbite in the next mcconnell ad and it will play till the eve of election.

 

[Diablos]

Because the bolded will become a soundbite in the next mcconnell ad and it will play till the eve of election.

Oh well! If she's destined to lose she can go out with some fucking dignity. I've lost nearly all respect.

You can't dodge the question like someone at the dinner table who doesn't like to talk politics when you ARE politics. It just makes her look incredibly inept at being an effective campaigner.

 

[benjipwns]

Oh well! If she's destined to lose she can go out with some fucking dignity. I've lost nearly all respect.

You can't dodge the question like someone at the dinner table who doesn't like to talk politics when you ARE politics. It just makes her look incredibly inept at being an effective campaigner.

Modern politics is all about how you can't do [X] that you claim to stand for because other people will say bad things about you.

 

[ivysaur12]

I don't know about you all, but I plan on being VERY drunk on election night.

 

[Diablos]

Modern politics is all about how you can't do [X] that you claim to stand for because other people will say bad things about you.

If she cannot even say she voted for Obama I feel bad for her and her campaign. They are fucking fools. By dodging it like she did (man, was that ever embarrassing), she made herself look even worse than she may have by simply telling the truth but cleverly distancing herself from the President. So what if turtleface blasts an ad with her saying it.

Grimes: SHE VOTED FOR OBAMA

omg!!! No kidding. What looks worse is "Grimes: She can't even tell us if she voted for Obama... so how can she tell us how she'll represent Kentucky in the Senate?"

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hey PD, did you watch the Kentucky debate? Grimes said something to the effect of "I won't be the senator who votes to rip away insurance from half a million people"

 

[Diablos]

Hey PD, did you watch the Kentucky debate? Grimes said something to the effect of "I won't be the senator who votes to rip away insurance from half a million people"

LOL. Supports Obamacare openly -- but won't admit to voting for him.

What a clustefuck.

 

[Wilsongt]

I don't know about you all, but I plan on being VERY drunk on election night.

Yes. You betta share the alcohol. We're gonna have some Roveesque meltdowns in here

 

[RustyNails]

Oh well! If she's destined to lose she can go out with some fucking dignity. I've lost nearly all respect.

You can't dodge the question like someone at the dinner table who doesn't like to talk politics when you ARE politics. It just makes her look incredibly inept at being an effective campaigner.

Dignity is the downfall of democrats and how they lose elections. Dignity has won no one victories.

In American politics you have to be a slimeball of the highest order to win. You accuse decorated war veterans of being traitorous bastards and you run on a campaign of change after 30 years in congress.

 

[Diablos]

I went through like 3/4 of a Maker's Mark bottle on election night 2012. I got up to use the restroom and fell twice on the way over.
I don't drink a lot so let's just say I was in really, really bad shape.

 

[Averon]

So the Turtle is going to win? Blegh. At least him losing would've been a way to help soothe what will likely be a bitter election night.

 

[B-Dubs]

So the Turtle is going to win? Blegh. At least him losing would've been a way to help soothe what will likely be a bitter election night.

He was always going to win, kicking him out was always a long shot.

 

[thepotatoman]

Yes. You betta share the alcohol. We're gonna have some Roveesque meltdowns in here

I still think a republican win might be a long term democrat win. The shutdowns and impeachment discussion/proceedings that result will be the only way democrats have a chance at winning the house before 2022.

Would prefer to win without going through that but can't deny there is a bright side. It'd be the more entertaining of the two possibilities at the very least.

 

[Jooney]

I blame benjipwns for this neogaf ad.

and another:

 

[Jooney]

Hey PD, did you watch the Kentucky debate? Grimes said something to the effect of "I won't be the senator who votes to rip away insurance from half a million people"

That's good. Would have been a more effective months ago though.