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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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W

WayneMorse

Banned
http://www.texastribune.org/2015/01/29/rep-staff-ask-muslim-visitors-pledge-allegiance/

Freshman state Rep. Molly White, R-Belton, is not in Austin today to celebrate Texas Muslim Capitol Day. But she left instructions for the staff in her Capitol office on how to handle visitors who are, including asking them to declare allegiance to the United States.

"I did leave an Israeli flag on the reception desk in my office with instructions to staff to ask representatives from the Muslim community to renounce Islamic terrorist groups and publicly announce allegiance to America and our laws," she posted on Facebook. "We will see how long they stay in my office."

Texas Muslim Capitol Day, which began in 2003, is organized by the Texas chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations and brings members of Muslim communities in Houston, Dallas and other areas of the state to the Capitol to learn about the political process and meet state lawmakers. Texas has the eighth-largest Muslim population in the United States, with more than 420,000 Muslims residing in the state, according to estimates from the Texas State Historical Association.

Even before participants in Thursday's event — about 100 Muslims, mostly children — could get to lawmakers' offices, they encountered opposition from a group of about 25 protesters outside the Capitol holding signs. One said, "Radical Islam is the New Nazi." Another said, "Go Home & Take Obama With You."
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John Roberts told me racism was over!!!
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
WayneMorse said:
Yes we all remember when Wisconsinite Paul Ryan was put on the ticket in 2012 and subsequently turned the Midwest red.
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w7pOI4I.gif
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
WayneMorse said:
Yes we all remember when Wisconsinite Paul Ryan was put on the ticket in 2012 and subsequently turned the Midwest red.
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This too. Voters don't turn into mindless sheeple just because of a home state candidate. Jeb Bush won't win Florida either.

If we're going to indulge ourselves in these "Republicans winning blue states" fantasies we might as well go for broke and talk about Pennsylvania and Michigan.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
I'm still convinced Walker will be the nominee, and his "impressive" (to conservatives, not me) performance there last week was no surprise. Could he beat Hillary? Under the right circumstances sure, but I don't think those will exist in 2016. Barring an economic explosion the US will be in pretty good shape by summer 2016 when the campaign begins in earnest. My fear is moreso the WH fucking up another foreign policy issue.

Hillary's problem is that she's not really a good campaigner and struggles as a politician. When she makes a mistake she doubles down, then plays the victim as the media lampoons her. Obama ran circles around her on the trail. Luckily there's nobody on the right who is talented enough to expose those weaknesses effectively.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
CygnusXS said:
Cultural chauvinism is still essentially racist.
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Ehh, the very pedantic (or those willfully acting as such) can still make a thing out of it, since cultural chauvinism does not necessarily involve what we would generally think of as different races (even though it usually does).
 
A

Averon

Member
NeoXChaos said:
A Tie means a republican victory in 2016.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/for-republicans-a-2016-tie-is-a-win/

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images//KDK2015012901-map2.png[IMG][/QUOTE]


LoL.
In what universe is Hilary losing Iowa?
Any scenario in which IA goes red, you'd imagine CO, NV, and VA would go red as well.
Things would have to go in a really, really wrong direction for Democrats between now and November 2016 for that to happen.
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N

NeoXChaos

Member
Averon said:
LoL.
In what universe is Hilary losing Iowa?
Any scenario in which IA goes red, you'd imagine CO, NV, and VA would go red as well.
Things would have to go in a really, really wrong direction for Democrats between now and November 2016 for that to happen.
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Only if Hispanic turnout is oppressed or super low will NV go R. NV and NM are similar in their huge Hispanic population. I dont see how NV is a swing state come Fall 2016. NM is gone. CO theoretically should be lean blue. Gardner only won by 2 in a midterm.

FL is the big kahuna. If Hillary is winning those places big, no way Florida goes R. If there is one state that fits her, FL is it.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Only if Hispanic turnout is oppressed or super low will NV go R. NV and NM are similar in their huge Hispanic population. I dont see how NV is a swing state come Fall 2016. NM is gone. CO theoretically should be lean blue. Gardner only won by 2 in a midterm.

FL is the big kahuna. If Hillary is winning those places big, no way Florida goes R. If there is one state that fits her, FL is it.
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Man.

If the GOP's candidate loses by another huge EV margin for the third election in a row.. could you imagine the fireworks?

It'd be one thing to lose in a 2004-style 10-20EV squeaker, but another thing to once again fall >50EVs short.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
HylianTom said:
Man.

If the GOP's candidate loses by another huge EV margin for the third election in a row.. could you imagine the fireworks?

It'd be one thing to lose in a 2004-style 10-20EV squeaker, but another thing to once again fall >50EVs short.
Click to expand...

Until the Republicans turn blue states into red states, they will always have to run the table.

If winning in 2016 means Jindal isnt Health and Human Services Secretary then I want a win.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
The Republican brand in Wisconsin is toxic on a statewide, presidential year turnout basis. Hence the reason why Tommy Thompson couldn't get elected senator in 2012.

If you could get everyone who voted in 2012 to consistently vote in every election year the entire Midwest would be solid blue save for Indiana and Missouri.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
What do you think of that Daily Show guy who replaced Jon Oliver? Is his show any good?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Oblivion said:
What do you think of that Daily Show guy who replaced Jon Oliver? Is his show any good?
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Do you mean Larry Wilmore? Because he replaced Colbert. There's parts that are really good and parts that aren't so hot, Keeping it 100 is great. I think they're still trying to figure out the panel conversation segment though, which is the weak part of the show.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
B-Dubs said:
Do you mean Larry Wilmore? Because he replaced Colbert. There's parts that are really good and parts that aren't so hot, Keeping it 100 is great. I think they're still trying to figure out the panel conversation segment though, which is the weak part of the show.
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Argh. Yeah I met Colbert, lol. Does the panel have like minded people or are there Republicans like on Real Time?

I'm not too hot on this Wilmore fella. I don't even know how he got his own show when he rarely showed up on TDS. They should have given the slot to Samantha Bee and Jason Jones.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Oblivion said:
Argh. Yeah I met Colbert, lol. Does the panel have like minded people or are there Republicans like on Real Time?

I'm not too hot on this Wilmore fella. I don't even know how he got his own show when he rarely showed up on TDS. They should have given the slot to Samantha Bee and Jason Jones.
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It's less Reps vs Dems and more just finding people on each side of an issue. Like each episode they'll pick a recent issue and go with that. He does a pretty good job with it, I just don't think he has enough time in an episode to get the most out of the panel segment. I think it's worth tuning in for the opening segment and keeping it 100, the panel bit is good but not great. That said they're still figuring things out and if it gets better it could be a really good show.

Honestly, if Jon goes off to do movies full time, which he has hinted was an option for his future, I want Sam Bee and Jason Jones to take over for him. I think they'd kill it.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
WayneMorse said:
The Republican brand in Wisconsin is toxic on a statewide, presidential year turnout basis. Hence the reason why Tommy Thompson couldn't get elected senator in 2012.

If you could get everyone who voted in 2012 to consistently vote in every election year the entire Midwest would be solid blue save for Indiana and Missouri.
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Yo.

I personally wouldn't be surprised if the Midwest (particularly WI/IA/OH) starts moving right eventually as demographics and parties change, but I don't think it will happen in 2016. Republicans will have a decent chance in Ohio, a small chance in Iowa, no chance in Wisconsin, just like it has been for a while.

I think as Democrats start making more inroads in the South - say by 2020 NC is a light blue state like VA is now, and GA is a tossup/light red state like NC is now - the GOP will have to craft a platform that appeals to Midwestern voters to make up for it. But what's tricky is that NC/VA/FL/GA add up to 73 electoral votes whereas IA/OH/WI add up to just 34. They'd need to add MI and PA (which brings them to 70) to roughly balance it out, which still sucks for them because the Democrats have an advantage in the electoral college right now, so just balancing it out means the Republicans still lose. Taking the Obama/Romney map and giving the Democrats NC and GA while giving the Republicans IA, OH, WI, MI and PA results in a 293-245 win for the Democrat.

It'll be interesting to see what they do. Clinton could lose in 2016 but most signs point to her winning. If she gets reelected then that's 16 straight years of Democratic rule at which point voters might be ready for a different party. But if in ten years the GOP is still run by socially conservative bomb throwers without a sound plan for anything other than "Fuck Obama/Clinton" then either the Democrats win again or that different party ain't them.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
B-Dubs said:
It's less Reps vs Dems and more just finding people on each side of an issue. Like each episode they'll pick a recent issue and go with that. He does a pretty good job with it, I just don't think he has enough time in an episode to get the most out of the panel segment. I think it's worth tuning in for the opening segment and keeping it 100, the panel bit is good but not great. That said they're still figuring things out and if it gets better it could be a really good show.

Honestly, if Jon goes off to do movies full time, which he has hinted was an option for his future, I want Sam Bee and Jason Jones to take over for him. I think they'd kill it.
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I'd actually love to see Jessica Williams get the mantle. She's their top talent right now, I think.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Romney not running

http://www.hughhewitt.com/romney-st...eaders-party-opportunity-become-next-nominee/

Let me begin by letting you know who else is on this call, besides Ann and me. There are a large number of people who signed on to be leaders of our 2016 finance effort. In addition, state political leadership from several of the early primary states are on the line. And here in New York City, and on the phone, are people who have been helping me think through how to build a new team, as well as supporters from the past who have all been kind enough to volunteer their time during this deliberation stage. Welcome, and thank you. Your loyalty and friendship, and your desire to see the country with new, competent and conservative leadership warms my heart.

After putting considerable thought into making another run for president, I’ve decided it is best to give other leaders in the Party the opportunity to become our next nominee.

Let me give you some of my thinking. First, I am convinced that with the help of the people on this call, we could win the nomination. Our finance calls made it clear that we would have enough funding to be more than competitive. With few exceptions, our field political leadership is ready and enthusiastic about a new race. And the reaction of Republican voters across the country was both surprising and heartening. I know that early poll numbers move up and down a great deal during a campaign, but we would have no doubt started in a strong position. One poll out just today shows me gaining support and leading the next closest contender by nearly two to one. I also am leading in all of the four early states. So I am convinced that we could win the nomination, but fully realize it would have been difficult test and a hard fight.

....


I’ve been asked, and will certainly be asked again if there are any circumstances whatsoever that might develop that could change my mind. That seems unlikely. Accordingly, I’m not organizing a PAC or taking donations; I’m not hiring a campaign team.

I encourage all of you on this call to stay engaged in the critical process of selecting a Republican nominee for President. Please feel free to sign up on a campaign for a person who you believe may become our best nominee.

I believe a Republican winning back the White House is essential for our country, and I will do whatever I can to make that happen.

To all my supporters, friends and family who worked both tirelessly and loyally to support my campaigns in the past, I will always be deeply appreciative. What you have already done is a tribute to your patriotism. We are overwhelmed and humbled by your loyalty to us, by your generosity of spirit, and by your friendship. God bless you all.
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O

Owzers

Member
Romney is such a loser, apparently he said that he thinks he could win but it would be hard. I say apparently because i heard it on Fox.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
The big loser in this news: Walker.

Establishment money and "moderate" (yes, those are sarcastiquotes) primary voters will now line-up.
 
A

Avon Barksdale

Member
I still think Willard will do a 180 and run if Jeb starts slipping.

And PPP just released their first GOP poll of 2015:

PPP's newest national poll finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican candidate field, although not by a particularly substantial amount. He's at 21% to 17% for Jeb Bush, 15% for Ben Carson, 11% for Scott Walker, 9% each for Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee, 7% for Chris Christie, 4% for Rand Paul, and 2% for Rick Perry.

Romney's leading based on a formula that sounds pretty similar to a lot of 2012 polls. He isn't the top choice among 'very conservative' voters, getting 16% to Cruz's 19% and Carson's 18%. And he isn't the top choice among moderates either, getting 22% to Bush's 28%. But where he does have a substantial advantage is with 'somewhat conservative' voters, the center of the Republican primary electorate, where he gets 27% to 18% each for Bush and Carson.

If Romney doesn't run for President and his supporters are reallocated to their second choices, Bush leads with 21% to 16% for Carson, 14% for Walker, 12% for Huckabee, and 10% for Cruz.

Here are the winners, losers, and in betweeners from this poll:

Winners

-The biggest winner has to be Scott Walker. His 11% standing appears to be the first time he's registered at double digits in a national poll. He's reached that level of support despite having the lowest name recognition of any candidate we tested, which is a pretty good indication that when voters get to know him they're coming to like him. Walker's near 3:1 favorability rating among those who have heard of him is second only to Carson. Things are headed in the right direction for Walker.

-The other big winner is Ben Carson. Despite being the only person in this mix never to have served in a major office before, he's outpacing other hopefuls with Tea Party credentials like Ted Cruz and Rick Perry. Carson's +38 net favorability rating at 49/11 matches Romney for the best among any of the GOP hopefuls. Carson has consistently been hitting double digits in our state polling as well.

Losers

-The biggest loser in this poll is Rand Paul. In addition to being in 8th place for people's first choice, he's also tied for 8th place as people's second choice. Only 10% of respondents list him as either their first or second choice, the lowest of any of the candidates we tested. Paul's net favorability with GOP primary voters has dropped by 10 points in the last year from +37 at 58/21 to now +27 at 50/23.

-Republican primary voters simply don't like Chris Christie. His net favorability rating with them is -8 at 35/43. Among voters describing themselves as 'very conservative,' it's 24/51- they just don't trust him at all. Last January Christie was polling at 14% for the nomination and now he has just half that level of support.

-The other loser is Rick Perry. Republicans actually like him fine- his +29 favorability rating at 50/21 is equal to Walker's and better than Bush's. But he's still in last place at just 2% suggesting that even among voters who like him, few of them want him to be the nominee in 2016. His last best chance may have passed.

-Last January Mike Huckabee was leading our national Republican polling at 16%. Now he's fallen back to the middle of the pack at 9%. Huckabee's 58% favorability rating trails only Romney among Republican voters, but that too is down from 64% a year ago. Huckabee's still in the mix but his stock isn't what it was a year ago.

In Between:

-Jeb Bush has had the largest decline in his net favorability of any of the GOP hopefuls over the last year. Last January he was at +38 (56/18) and that's declined now by 15 points to +23 (47/24). But Bush is still in second place and he's the second choice of a lot more Romney backers than Carson is, so if Romney doesn't end up running Bush is likely to be the early leader.

-Ted Cruz is pretty much running in place. Last January he was at 8% and this January he's at 9%. Last January his favorability rating was 45/20 and now it's a pretty similar 49/19. Cruz is the second choice among Ben Carson supporters, so if Carson fades as voters become more familiar with him Cruz could move into the top tier.

-On one hand Mitt Romney leads the Republican primary field. On the other hand 74% of GOP primary voters would prefer for someone else to be the nominee- not terribly impressive. His 62/24 favorability rating with primary voters is way down from 85/13 right before the 2012 election.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 60% to 15% for Joe Biden, 10% for Elizabeth Warren, 2% for Bernie Sanders, and 1% each for Martin O'Malley and Jim Webb.

Clinton's a little less strong than she was a year ago. Our two national polls in early 2014 found her at 66-67%. Nevertheless she is polling at at least 55% among liberals, moderates, men, women, whites, African Americans, and Hispanics- a pretty thorough lead at this stage.
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/01/good-news-for-walker-carson-in-gop-poll.html
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Avon Barksdale said:
I still think Willard will do a 180 and run if Jeb starts slipping.

And PPP just released their first GOP poll of 2015:



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/01/good-news-for-walker-carson-in-gop-poll.html
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On one hand I agree yet I can't help but think his decision is largely based on his former campaign officials jumping to Bush. Most of the experienced GOP campaign "talent" will be working for various candidates by primary season: even if Bush struggles early it would be hard for Romney to find a team.

I definitely think Bush will struggle early. Iowa should be Rand's to lose. He'll probably do well in NH but SC will be ugly, then five more southern states have a Super Tuesday in early March. Money isn't going to buy a win for him.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
The GOP should run a different and super popular candidate in every state, deny the electoral college majority to Hillary, then elect a GOP President with the House. Easy peasy.

Mike M said:
I wish you would stop harping on this, it is an absolutely meaningless factoid with no predictive value.
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No Democrat has EVER been elected to a second consecutive term without a Van Buren, Wilson, Roosevelt, Clinton or Obama on the ballot!
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Black Mamba said:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/health-care/can-the-health-care-industry-save-obamacare-20150129

...

I personally think the legal argument is so bad and would open a pandora's box no one on the high court wants but just in case, I think the economic impact and begging from big business to not do it would be the final nail in the coffin.
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It's just terrible how beholden to large corporations the Court is that they'll overlook the plain text that Congress passed just to fill the pockets of more rich fat cats.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Speaking of plain text in the ACA, Section 1115 Medicaid implementation's getting another boost:

Seen from a purely political vantage, this hasn’t been the greatest week for Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, who is often mentioned as a potential dark horse for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. For one thing, the 2016 aspirant whose profile most closely resembles Pence’s, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, is riding a boomlet following his strong performance at a conservative cattle call in Iowa last weekend. For another thing, Pence’s launch of a new government-run news service, “Just IN,” ran into so much ridicule that it was shut down well before the first issue of the Pence Pravda could hit the newsstands.

But Pence can take solace in the fact that he has this week achieved something far more consequential than these fleeting tribulations. His agreement with the Obama administration to expand Medicaid in Indiana on the state’s own terms may very likely come to be seen as a major turning point in the central battle in the implementation of Obamacare. More than that, the staunchly conservative Pence may have taken a big step toward fundamentally reshaping one of the country’s biggest safety-net programs—so much so that many liberals who generally cheer any expansion of coverage are feeling deeply ambivalent about this development.

Their ambivalence is understandable. But in the context of the extraordinarily toxic political environment around Obamacare, the Indiana news should be viewed as a step forward.
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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
NOOOOOO. He is too old.
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Was Jerry Brown too old?

Strickland is our best possible candidate. This is great news.

My starting lineup for fantasy politics is about in place. Feingold-WI, Hassan-NH, Hagan-NC, Sestak-PA, Murphy-FL, Duckworth-IL, and now Strickland-OH. The only one who isn't running (per insider reports or whatever) is Murphy, everyone else has at least been talked about.

Of those seven though I'd say Ohio will be the hardest for Democrats to win - maybe call it a solid Lean R. Florida is Lean R with Rubio, tossup without, NC and NH are tilt R, PA/IL/WI are tossup.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Idk Aaron. We need a bench warmer like Grassley and McCain. If someone like Ernst can come from nowhere, then its worth a shot with the young guy.

Strickland only seems strong becuase the OH D's got destroyed last cycle like the FL Democrats
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
on the bright side, this probably means Sittenfeld can make a run for Governor in 2018
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He's young enough. Run a statewide campaign this round to get his name recognition up, come back swinging two years later.

Hopefully Hillary's first two years goes more smoothly than Barack's and Democrats will have a chance in the midterm at swinging some open governor's seats.
 
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