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[Owzers]

This makes me so mad. As if he has any more experience dealing with those than Shaheen does.

All i ask is that Scott Brown does not win, even if the Senate turns Republican, not him.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

Kay Hagen and the no good, evil, rotten voting machines.

Just another reason electronic voting machines have always been the wrong answer to improving balloting.

Funny how these glitches seem to only go one way. H less there are other reports I have missed.

There are reports you have missed.

 

[BertramCooper]

Trying to determine whether I have time to vote during lunch, or if I should get up super early before work and vote.

I'm just telling my boss this afternoon that I'm going to be a bit late into work tomorrow in order to vote.

As a salaried employee I'm permitted under Ohio law to take a reasonable amount of time to vote without penalty from my employer. And that's what I intend to do.

 

[robochimp]

I'm just telling my boss this afternoon that I'm going to be a bit late into work tomorrow in order to vote.

As a salaried employee I'm permitted under Ohio law to take a reasonable amount of time to vote without penalty from my employer. And that's what I intend to do.

Salaried or nonsalaried every employer has to accommodate voting.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I'm just telling my boss this afternoon that I'm going to be a bit late into work tomorrow in order to vote.

As a salaried employee I'm permitted under Ohio law to take a reasonable amount of time to vote without penalty from my employer. And that's what I intend to do.

True. I guess I'll #SaveTheNerd in the afternoon.

 

[Zona]

I will be voting after work. Polling location in NYS are open from 6AM to 9PM, which is nice. I've been encouraging my friends to vote but it's an up hill battle. The liberal ones seem even less likely to bother because it's NY and they think the people they want will win anyway... despite the fact that local government around us is dominated by republicans.

 

[benjipwns]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/opinion/cancel-the-midterms.html?_r=0

There was a time when midterm elections made sense — at our nation’s founding, the Constitution represented a new form of republican government, and it was important for at least one body of Congress to be closely accountable to the people.

...

The main impact of the midterm election in the modern era has been to weaken the president, the only government official (other than the powerless vice president) elected by the entire nation. Since the end of World War II, the president’s party has on average lost 25 seats in the House and about 4 in the Senate as a result of the midterms. This is a bipartisan phenomenon — Democratic presidents have lost an average of 31 House seats and between 4 to 5 Senate seats in midterms; Republican presidents have lost 20 and 3 seats, respectively.

The realities of the modern election cycle are that we spend almost two years selecting a president with a well-developed agenda, but then, less than two years after the inauguration, the midterm election cripples that same president’s ability to advance that agenda.

...

There’s an obvious, simple fix, though. The government should, through a constitutional amendment, extend the term of House members to four years and adjust the term of senators to either four or eight years, so that all elected federal officials would be chosen during presidential election years. Doing so would relieve some (though, of course, not all) of the systemic gridlock afflicting the federal government and provide members of Congress with the ability to focus more time and energy on governance instead of electioneering.

This adjustment would also give Congress the breathing space to consider longer-term challenges facing the nation — such as entitlement spending, immigration and climate change — that are either too complex or politically toxic to tackle within a two-year election cycle.

 

[Ecotic]

The polls out of Georgia don't look good. I don't know what happened except that the shock from the outsourcing gaffe wore off.

At this point I'm just hoping Perdue doesn't cross 50% on election night.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Summary of PPP Senate polls released today:

Georgia: Tied
Iowa: Ernst+1
Kansas: Roberts+1
New Hampshire: Shaheen+2
North Carolina: Hagan+1

But! All of these were conducted for an advocacy group last Thursday and Friday.

PPP will be releasing new polls of all five of these states tonight that were conducted over the weekend.

Nunn has been losing her edge in Georgia polls lately that undersample black voters, who are keeping in line with 2012 turnout (32% AA electorate). The difference between 26% and 32% of the electorate being African-American is the difference between Nunn trailing in an election that will go to a runoff and Nunn winning outright. I'm not too concerned - even if it goes to a runoff it's just a second chance.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Undersampling, underestimating...Dem supporters have become the unskewers this time around?

Dems have lost the Senate. It doesn't really matter because nobody ever got anything done thanks to the House.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Undersampling, underestimating...Dem supporters have become the unskewers this time around?

Dems have lost the Senate. It doesn't really matter because nobody ever got anything done thanks to the House.

The Unskewed Polls guy is great.. His website is still up! I certainly hope nobody on the left will stoop to that level.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/opinion/cancel-the-midterms.html?_r=0

Holy shit. Overhaul the timing of elections to fix two "wrongs":

1. Weaken the presidency (which is arguably not even a wrong)
2. Reduce money going in to elections (why wouldn't donors just use the savings to load up on the four year election cycles, winning just doubled in value)

Unlike say, judges, you want the House of Representatives to reflect the mindset (and whims) of the populace. I'm not saying it has to be two year terms or go down to one year terms or anything, but I want to see more substantial benefits than those two.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Undersampling, underestimating...Dem supporters have become the unskewers this time around?

They at least have a reason to think that way given some of the polls in 2010 and 2012. Then we have whatever Quinnipac has been doing in Colorado to get their results.

 

[ivysaur12]

The polls out of Georgia don't look good. I don't know what happened except that the shock from the outsourcing gaffe wore off.

At this point I'm just hoping Perdue doesn't cross 50% on election night.

New PPP poll has them tied at 46%. It's probably the closest race with Kansas.

The early voting looks pretty good for Nunn, though it will be hard for Nunn to cross 30%
White voters (polls have her around 25% right now).

 

[jamesinclair]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/opinion/cancel-the-midterms.html?_r=0

How much does this country spend on elections?

We would literally save billions

 

[thepotatoman]

I would've given those anti-Franken add-makers more credit had they used a better pic..

Franken should just add that picture to the thing and instantly turn it into the perfect pro-Franken ad.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm going to be very interested in seeing if they try to unskew polls in '16. If they don't, and it looks like a Dem a White House is a foregone conclusion, what would that do to turnout for the GOP?

Instead of voting, their base may end-up focusing more energy on perfecting and spreading their secession manifestos..

Franken should just add that picture to the thing and instantly turn it into the perfect pro-Franken ad.

Absolutely! That pic is a mark in his favor!

 

[Teggy]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/opinion/cancel-the-midterms.html?_r=0

Could you imagine the chaos if every senator and rep were elected in the same year (with the president)? Every phone would be ringing off the hook, every voice mailbox and snail mailbox would be overflowing and there would be no time on tv to actually show programs instead of commercials.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Has anyone done any analysis on Virginia looking bluer and bluer every election year? 2012 it seemed like one of the most stable Obama states even during the "Romney surge' and in 2013 they bucked the trend of choosing a governor from the opposing party. Now it seems Warner will cruise to victory in a state I would have assumed would have been a prime target.

 

[HylianTom]

Has anyone done any analysis on Virginia looking bluer and bluer every election year? 2012 it seemed like one of the most stable Obama states even during the "Romney surge' and in 2013 they bucked the trend of choosing a governor from the opposing party. Now it seems Warner will cruise to victory in a state I would have assumed would have been a prime target.

I've wondered the same thing. While Colorado might be backsliding in the other direction (we'll know more soon!), Virginia looks like it's flirting with the idea of becoming a Wisconsin-style blue-leaner. Those northern suburbs (I.e., "fake Virginia") exploding in population certainly help.

If that's the case, the electoral tightrope that GOP presidential nominees must walk to reach 269 just became lubed-up dental floss.

 

[benjipwns]

Unlike say, judges, you want the House of Representatives to reflect the mindset (and whims) of the populace. I'm not saying it has to be two year terms or go down to one year terms or anything, but I want to see more substantial benefits than those two.

They basically want the part of the parliamentary system in which the elected leader has unchecked institutional power until the next election which isn't too soon as to make them afraid of doing things the populace doesn't want but the party does.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Undersampling, underestimating...Dem supporters have become the unskewers this time around?

Dems have lost the Senate. It doesn't really matter because nobody ever got anything done thanks to the House.

There has been a consistent and predictable pattern of pollsters leaning towards Republicans in Senate polls in both 2010 and 2012. Observe:

California - Boxer +5.0 (actual: Boxer +10.0)
Colorado - Buck +3.0 (actual: Bennet +1.7)
Connecticut - Blumenthal +8.7 (actual: Blumenthal +12.0)
Illinois - Kirk +3.3 (actual: Kirk +1.6)
Nevada - Angle +2.7 (actual: Reid +5.7)
Pennsylvania - Toomey +4.5 (actual: Toomey +2.0)
Washington - Murray +0.3 (actual: Murray +4.7)
West Virginia - Manchin +4.5 (actual: Manchin +10.1)
Wisconsin - Johnson +7.7 (actual: Johnson +4.9)

These are the final RCP averages of nine Senate races considered tossups in 2010. Every result was off in favor of the Republicans, by an average of 4.3 points. They called the winner wrong in Nevada and Colorado and came dangerously close to doing so in Washington too. They were off by a similar amount in 2012 and once again called two races wrong, North Dakota and Montana, but since that's a presidential election with higher turnout that's not quite apples-to-apples.

Now here are the tossups they have this year. There are 8:

Alaska - Sullivan + 2.4
Colorado - Gardner + 2.5
Georgia - Perdue + 3.0
Iowa - Ernst + 1.4
Kansas - Orman + 0.7
Louisiana - Cassidy + 4.8
New Hampshire - Shaheen + 0.9
North Carolina - Hagan + 1.1

If the elections turned out this way, Democrats would have 48 seats on election night (I'm counting Orman as a Democrat just to make things simpler) while Republicans would have 50. (LA/GA go to a runoff) But add those 4.3 points to each Democrat and oh shit! All of them are in the lead except Landrieu who's behind by half a point. Then Democrats have 51 seats to Republicans' 47. (Again LA/GA are runoffs) All it would take is a modest overperformance in Iowa and the systemic bias in Colorado to rear its ugly head and they win a majority by the skin of their teeth.

I'm not saying; I'm just saying.

 

[benjipwns]

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2014-elections-republican-candidates-112428.html

For the Republican Party’s leadership, taking control of the U.S. Senate might not even be the sweetest part of a victory in 2014.

With growing confidence as Election Day approaches, Republican leaders are preparing to argue that broad GOP gains in the House and Senate would represent a top-to-bottom validation of their party’s mainline wing. Having taken a newly heavy-handed approach to the primary season this year, the top strategists of the Republican coalition say capturing the majority would set a powerful precedent for similar actions in the future — not just in Senate and congressional races, but in the presidential primary season as well.

National Republicans managed this year to snuff out every bomb-throwing insurgent who tried to wrest a Senate nod away from one of their favored candidates. They spent millions against baggage-laden activists such as Matt Bevin, the Louisville investor who mounted a ham-fisted challenge to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Mississippi state Sen. Chris McDaniel, the conservative upstart who imperiled a safe seat by nearly ousting longtime Sen. Thad Cochran.

...

Senate GOP Whip John Cornyn, the Texan who twice chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the party had experienced a “very, very important evolution” this year — one from which it would not turn back.

“Where we ran into problems was where that small sliver of the party insisted on nominating people who could win the primary but couldn’t win the general,” Cornyn said of the past two election cycles. Of the party’s successful 2014 course-correction, Cornyn said: “I promise you it’s a lesson we will not forget.”

...

What’s more, the party took additional steps to lean on the primary process and shape it in its favor: In Colorado, Republicans coaxed prosecutor Ken Buck out of his second campaign for the U.S. Senate and into a congressional race, making way for Gardner’s statewide campaign. In Kentucky, after Bevin announced his primary run against McConnell, the Senate leader sent a message across his party’s hired-gun community by banishing Bevin’s consultants from the NRSC.

Indeed, no Republican embodies the campaign to lock down the primary process better than McConnell, the hard-nosed fundraising whiz who told The New York Times in March that he would “crush” the conservative outside groups lined up against him and his colleagues. “I don’t think they are going to have a single nominee anywhere in the country,” he said.

...

For all their successes this year, GOP leaders are by no means confident that they have muffled the intraparty rebellion for good — or that they’ve created adequate maneuvering room in a presidential race for a candidate like Chris Christie, the party’s most prominent blue-state governor, or Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor who’s gotten crosswise with the base on immigration reform and Common Core education standards. (One well-connected Republican strategist warned: “If we get a nominee like Ted Cruz, we’ll have a Todd Akin-level disaster on an even bigger stage.”)

...

As a result, Cole said, there’s a fairly wide recognition in the party — not just among donors and interest groups in Washington — that electoral competitiveness demands a more discerning approach to primaries. He cited Gardner’s Senate campaign and the elevation of Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst, an anointed favorite of longtime Gov. Terry Branstad, as illustrative examples.

“That’s not just orchestrated from Washington, D.C. A lot of Republicans at the local level are also making smart decisions and saying, ‘It’s not enough to win the primary,’” Cole said. “I see the same thing in the House candidates I’ve interacted with over the last year.”

Whether or not the party’s more tactically prudent approach this year carries over into the mood of the Republican base in a presidential cycle, party leaders are confident the 2014 results will bolster electability-minded arguments heading into the next campaign.
“While many point to the president’s abysmal approval ratings or the GOP tilt to the playing field as the primary reasons we may win the U.S. Senate, the real key to victory on Election Day may be the quality of candidates on our side,” said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster who works with many House and Senate campaigns.

Invoking two of the party’s most famously disastrous recent nominees, Blizzard added: “There really are no [Richard] Mourdocks or [Christine] O’Donnells in this class of GOP candidates. That’s because our best general election candidates won their primaries this time around.”

 

[BertramCooper]

Salaried or nonsalaried every employer has to accommodate voting.

Ohio guarantees PTO to vote for salaried employees but not for nonsalaried employees.

Numerous states don't have any laws on the books regarding PTO to vote.

 

[ivysaur12]

@Nate_Cohn
Colorado update: 1,392,273 votes counted, R 40.52, D 32.20.

@Nate_Cohn
32,761 ballots counted so far today, D-27 R-38, but mainly from El Paso, Jefferson, Arapahoe. None from Denver/Boudler.

@Nate_Cohn
Controlling for geography, the returns today are decent for Democrats. Basically deadlocked in Jefferson/Arapahoe, which has been reg R

@Nate_Cohn
So far, when you look by county, today's ballots basically look like those from the weekend

.

 

[Retro]

There has been a consistent and predictable pattern of pollsters leaning towards Republicans in Senate polls in both 2010 and 2012.

I still say the polls are heavily skewed by the decline of residential land lines. Rasmussen point blank says they don't call cellular numbers, for example. Pew did a survey in 2007 that claimed there wasn't any difference, but the demographics in their report showed a clear bias towards young and minority voters being cell phone-only households. (46 percent of the cell-only sample was in the 18 to 29 age group, compared with 12 percent for landline users). 7 years of cell phone proliferation and an economic implosion that has people tightening their belt and going cell phone-only? It's a potentially huge blind spot in the polls.

Haha, as I'm typing this, I got robo-called by Sharron Angle shilling for Kevin Wade. The phrase "Do-nothing establishment" came up. I laughed.

 

[Wilsongt]

Dawn of the final day.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm making a broad effort to reduce stress in my life. Accordingly, I'll be staying away from results tomorrow (aka playing Destiny) until 10 pm pacific time or so, at which point I'll hop in here and see how things are going.

Have fun guys.

 

[ivysaur12]

I'm making a broad effort to reduce stress in my life. Accordingly, I'll be staying away from results tomorrow (aka playing Destiny) until 10 pm pacific time or so, at which point I'll hop in here and see how things are going.

Have fun guys.

The apocalypse will have already started by then, though!

 

[PhoenixDark]

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2014-elections-republican-candidates-112428.html

Makes me wonder if a republican senate might not be horrible on all counts - it'll be bad on most (especially judges) but perhaps the obstruction won't be as terrible. The GOP has two years to audition for 2016, I don't think they'll spend it trying to ban abortion, ban Obamacare, and get nothing done. Maybe we'll get some type of tax reform. Corporate tax cuts and a fast track for TPP are givens, unfortunately.

 

[Metaphoreus]

King v. Burwell Relisted for November 7 Conference:

You know the general caveats. One relist is a sign the petition is likely to be granted–especially after last term where every grant was preceded by a relist. Two or more reslists is a sign that there is a dissental in the works, so the petition will likely be denied. But, with this case, the Court may keep relisting it, or hold it, pending the D.C Circuit’s en banc proceeding on Dec. 11. Stay tuned.

Also, it seems that Justice Thomas is the tech whiz at the Supreme Court:

During a cool event at Yale Law School, we learned that Justice Thomas is the leading technological evangelist at One First Street. He explained that he uses email, though others at the Court don’t.

I use email, but when I first got to the court there was not internal email. So I don’t think we have gotten there yet. In time we will start communicating by internal email. I was in charge in those days of the automation. We have all that now.​

Sotomayor acknowledged that “The most computer savvy Justice is you Clarence.”

Alito added, “The communications about cases are almost all written except when we’re in conference.”

Thomas also noted that they have the capability to edit documents with track changes, and that his chambers is virtually “paperless.” But the other Justices prefer to do it the old-fashioned way.

We have tracked changes. We can do a lot of things on a computer on a document together. But we don’t do it. I do it with my law clerks. But as between each other, I think people prefer hard copies. I work almost exclusively paperless intrachambers. I think at some point we will do it in the court.​

Justice Sotomayor quipped that there are “two reasons why Justices don’t use technology. One is tradition. The other is that they don’t know how.” Thomas chuckled back, “Then there’s that.”

 

[benjipwns]

Makes me wonder if a republican senate might not be horrible on all counts - it'll be bad on most (especially judges) but perhaps the obstruction won't be as terrible. The GOP has two years to audition for 2016, I don't think they'll spend it trying to ban abortion, ban Obamacare, and get nothing done. Maybe we'll get some type of tax reform. Corporate tax cuts and a fast track for TPP are givens, unfortunately.

Lots of people are convinced a Republican Senate is more likely to pass some kind of immigration deal.

 

[thepotatoman]

Mid Election day 2014
32.1% D - 39.4% R
7.3 pt R gap

2014 Monday November 3
32.2% D - 39.7% R
7.5 pt R gap

2010 final (1.7 pt D victory)
33.0% D - 39.8% R
6.8 pt R gap.

2010 Monday November 2
34.6% D - 40.7% R
6.1 pt R gap

2010 Independent split from CNN Exit Poll
53% D - 37% R
15 pt D gap

2014 independent split of RCP eligible polls with crosstabs
Quinnipac 43% D - 36% R, PPP 46% D - 37% R, Survey USA 46% D - 37% R, Marist 44% D - 41% R
7 pt average D gap

 

[PhoenixDark]

Lots of people are convinced a Republican Senate is more likely to pass some kind of immigration deal.

The senate isn't the issue IMO. I don't see the House doing anything major on immigration. Although I suppose they could sell it to the base by claiming they could impeach the president in both the senate and house if Obama doesn't follow the law as passed.

Now...I could see them passing some type of border security bill and daring Obama to veto it.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Now...I could see them passing some type of border security bill and daring Obama to veto it.

How can he veto the "Protecting Our Children from Ebola and ISIS Border Protection Act"

 

[ivysaur12]

Alright, let's just do this. All the relevant CO early voting stats I can think of as relevant:

Provisional 2014 early vote with with democrat heavy districts needing counting
32.2% D - 40.5% R
8.3 pt R gap

2010 final (1.7 pt D victory)
33.0% D - 39.8% R
6.8 pt R gap.

2010 Monday November 2
34.6% D - 40.7% R
6.1 pt R gap

2010 Independent split from CNN Exit Poll
53% D - 37% R
15 pt D gap

2014 independent split of RCP eligible polls with crosstabs
Quinnipac 43% D - 36% R, PPP 46% D - 37% R, Survey USA 46% D - 37% R, Marist 44% D - 41% R
7 pt average D gap

Yeah, I think we need to wait on Denver and Boulder to accurately compare, but so far, I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

[theprodigy]

I'm making a broad effort to reduce stress in my life. Accordingly, I'll be staying away from results tomorrow (aka playing Destiny) until 10 pm pacific time or so, at which point I'll hop in here and see how things are going.

Have fun guys.

But Destiny is such a terrible game!

j/k

 

[ivysaur12]

@ChuckGrassley: Windsor Heights Dairy Queen is good place for u kno what

???

 

[HylianTom]

???

I'm wondering the same thing.. very odd.

 

[Wilsongt]

Makes me wonder if a republican senate might not be horrible on all counts - it'll be bad on most (especially judges) but perhaps the obstruction won't be as terrible. The GOP has two years to audition for 2016, I don't think they'll spend it trying to ban abortion, ban Obamacare, and get nothing done. Maybe we'll get some type of tax reform. Corporate tax cuts and a fast track for TPP are givens, unfortunately.

Honestly, a Republican senate would only NOT be bad if all of the teatards and crazy southern baptists were not a part of the party anymore.

 

[Jooney]

They basically want the part of the parliamentary system in which the elected leader has unchecked institutional power until the next election which isn't too soon as to make them afraid of doing things the populace doesn't want but the party does.

Haven't read the NYT op-ed yet, but don't knock the parliamentary system too hard. At least we have a two year period where the parties can focus on policy and governance and not have to worry about jockeying for positions in the next election. Compare that to Merica, where legislators didn't want to take a position on issues like immigration in 2013 because of an election in 2014. And now that the midterms are over, there's going to be what, a nine month period before the presidential primary season begins? That's a nine month window to get stuff done before parties close ranks amongst their candidates. The 'endless campaign' is suffocating.

Also, let's not forget about the other nice trait or parliamentary systems: six-week campaigns *antoniobanderas.gif*

 

[Jooney]

???

@ChuckGrassley: Windsor Heights Dairy Queen is good place for u kno what

to meet Larry Craig?

 

[Squirrel Killer]

???

Get a speeding ticket?

 

[ivysaur12]

Does any news organization have a person on the ground at the Windsor Heights DQ?!??

 

[benjipwns]

Also, let's not forget about the other nice trait or parliamentary systems: six-week campaign

That's not inherent to parliamentary systems, just election law. That could change in the UK with the now fixed elections.

 

[ivysaur12]

@Nate_Cohn 18s19 seconds ago Manhattan, NY
Colorado update: 1,445,123 votes counted. R 40.41, D 32.12. Still no Denver/Boulder update.

Potentially good. If Denver/Boulder push it below a 6.8 difference, I'll feel good, especially since Gardner's approval numbers are good.

 

[thepotatoman]

Potentially good. If Denver/Boulder push it below a 6.8 difference, I'll feel good, especially since Gardner's approval numbers are good.

That's probably not possible. This is just one day of vote counting, not the entire thing, and I doubt there's that many sunday/monday morning voters to swing things that much. A mid 7 pt difference at most, maybe.

 

[ivysaur12]

That's probably not possible. This is just one day of vote counting, not the entire thing, and I doubt there's that many sunday/monday morning voters to swing things that much. A mid 7 pt difference at most, maybe.

Yeah, I was misreading -- that's too bad.

Also, if the Kentucky House does not pass a bill to allow Rand to also run for president and the Senate at the same time, it'll be an open seat. Perfect time for Grimes to run again?

Same with Nunn again, though she's proven to be a much better candidate than Grimes has.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Keep in mind people can vote in person on Tuesday as well.

 

[Teggy]

http://www.businessinsider.com/chuck-grassley-tweets-about-u-kno-what-at-dairy-queen-2014-11

I guess the answer is getting some ice cream.