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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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benjipwns

Banned
Since I dug these up earlier...Primary Polling Averages for Jan-June year prior (so 1975, 1979, 1983, etc.) including eventual non-candidates in parenthesis.

1976:
Republicans: 38% Ford, 20% Reagan (10% Goldwater, 7% Rockefeller)
Democrats: 20% George Wallace, 11% Scoop Jackson, 2% Julian Bond, 2% Lloyd Bentsen, 2% Mo Udall, 1% Jimmy Carter, 1% Fred Harris, 1% Birch Bayh, 1% Jerry Brown, 1% Frank Church (15% Hubert Humphrey, 9% Ed Muskie, 8% George McGovern, 3% John Glenn)

1980:
Republicans: 29% Reagan, 10% Baker, 8% Connally, 1% Dole, 1% Bush (17% Ford, 1% Percy)
Democrats: 54% Kennedy, 30% Carter, 6% Jerry Brown

1984:
Democrats: 35% Mondale, 24% Glenn, 3% Alan Cranston, 3% Jesse Jackson, 2% Hart, 1% Askew

1988:
Republicans: 36% Bush, 21% Dole, 7% Kemp, 4% Robertson, 4% Haig, 2% du Pont, 2% Laxalt (2% Baker)
Democrats: 13% Hart, 13% Jackson, 8% Dukakis, 4% Gephardt, 4% Simon, 3% Gore, 2% Biden, 2% Babbitt (6% Cuomo, 0.5% Clinton)

1992...this one is hilarious:
Republicans: 72% Bush, 15% Buchanan, 4% David Duke
Democrats: 2% Doug Wilder, 2% Tom Harkin, 2% Clinton, 1% Bob Kerrey, 1% Paul Tsongas (21% Cuomo, 10% Gore, 9% Bentsen, 9% Jackson, 6% Gephardt, 6% McGovern, 5% Nunn, 4% Bradley, 3% Ann Richards, 2% George Mitchell, 2% Jay Rockefeller)

Then the ones done in July-December after all those candidates but Cuomo said no:
15% Jerry Brown, 10% Wilder, 8% Clinton, 8% Kerrey, 6% Harkin, 4% Tsongas (10% Cuomo)

1996:
Republicans: 50% Dole, 11% Gramm, 6% Buchanan, 5% Pete Wilson, 3% Lamar Alexander, 2% Dick Lugar, 2% Arlen Specter, 1% Bob Dornan, 1% Alan Keyes (2% Newt Gingrich)

2000:
Republicans: 46% Bush, 18% Elizabeth Dole, 7% Quayle, 5% McCain, 5% Forbes, 3% Buchanan, 2% Kasich, 1% Gary Bauer, 1% Alexander
Democrats: 54% Gore, 21% Bradley (3% Jackson, 2% Gephardt)

2004:
Democrats: 20% Lieberman, 14% Kerry, 13% Gephardt, 7% Edwards, 4% Sharpton, 4% Dean, 4% Graham, 2% Mosley Braun, 1% Kucinich (1% Gary Hart, 1% Hillary Clinton)

2008:
Republicans: 32% Giuliani, 20% McCain, 9% Romney, 8% Fred Thompson, 2% Huckabee, 1% Brownback, 1% Tommy Thompson, 1% Duncan Hunter, 1% Tancredo, 1% Ron Paul (5% Newt Gingrich)
Democrats: 38% Clinton, 23% Obama, 14% Edwards, 3% Richardson, 2% Biden, 1% Kucinich (4% Gore)

Worth noting that all the available recordings of primary debates from 1984 forward are on C-SPAN's website, 1984 and 1988 are particularly amusing, including one where Al Gore makes an epic joke about Jesse Jackson. And there's a 1984 one where the Democrats argue over who will raise taxes the most.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Wait, I already do all those things.

WHAT would I do?!?

Catch up on my TV backlog?

lol ya rite


EDIT:
Just remembered something I wanted to post earlier before I got distracted with those old polls.

There's this hardcore election game:
http://270soft.com/us-election-games/president-election-game-2016-infinity/

Sometimes I find it interesting to play as a non-entity candidate just to watch the major parties stuff happen.

A fella has been making scenarios from 1956 back recently, that's been quite fun for me:
http://campaigns.270soft.com/category/president-infinity/

There's an older version:
http://270soft.com/us-election-games/president-election-game/

I made a couple scenarios for that which were decade focused so you could like play 1976/1980/1984/1988/1992 with the "winning" candidates moving onto the next election since the regular scenarios take out candidates who didn't actually run.

As a game it's much much better than something like The Political Machine though not as casual. Mostly it's a fun little time waster. Though I might wait for when he runs a sale if you don't want to really plunge in. (It's just one guy who makes it.)

Also based on my last run playing as Jill Stein (who got 2.2%!) this cycle's election (with no Hillary since she admits to bengazhi and drops out leading to more Democratic candidates) will see a Bush/Haley ticket defeat an O'Malley/Klobuchar ticket 55-40 with 404-134 in the electoral college.

Bush/Haley will then win re-election in 2020 over Klobuchar/Emanuel with 73-24 in the popular vote and 521-17 in the electoral college. (Stein will only get 0.5%!)

(The last 2012 run was a little more realistic with Obama/Biden defeating Gingrich/Pawlenty 51-38 and 451-87.)

Though none were as thrilling as the recent 1920 and 1924 elections in which the GOP won the electoral college while losing the popular vote:
1920 - Hughes 37.5% (270) - Cox 47.9% (251) - La Follette 12.2% (10) - Debs 2.4%
1924 - Harding 39.9% (284) - Cox 41.9% (201) - La Follette 15.8% (46) - Debs 2.3%
 

benjipwns

Banned
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-acti...ld-force-supreme-court-to-enroll-in-obamacare
A House Republican on Thursday proposed forcing the Supreme Court justices and their staff to enroll in ObamaCare.

Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas) said that his SCOTUScare Act would make all nine justices and their employees join the national healthcare law’s exchanges.

“As the Supreme Court continues to ignore the letter of the law, it’s important that these six individuals understand the full impact of their decisions on the American people,” he said.

“That’s why I introduced the SCOTUScare Act to require the Supreme Court and all of its employees to sign up for ObamaCare,” Babin said.

Babin’s potential legislation would only let the federal government provide healthcare to the Supreme Court and its staff via ObamaCare exchanges.

“By eliminating their exemption from ObamaCare, they will see firsthand what the American people are forced to live with,” he added.
 
"Republican Insiders Expect No Harm from Confederate Flag Controversy"

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...ederate-flag-controversy-119457.html?hp=lc1_4

What a joke. This is going to come back to bite hard in the general. Bush is maybe the only one who can get out from under it. Rand? Hell no, four days of silence, and everyone else holding the states' rights line until Haley gave them the all-clear. People are going to remember outside the primary bubble, man. Especially if some southern states haven't cleared their décor out. South Carolina will have the traitor rag down by the end of July, methinks, but Mississippi will take a lot longer if it even decides to move, changing your state flag takes a lot of committee work. If they don't move on it then it will still be an exploitable issue by the time the general rolls around.

On a side note, that European circle jerk still carries on in full swing in OT main, I'm changing my vote from Hildawg to Rand. Isolationism was clearly the way to go in hindsight. Putin take them all! /s.... mostly.
 

Diablos

Member
Do Republicans even know what Obamacare is
They want the SCOTUS to enroll in Obamacare. Wow, what a bunch of assholes. They know this will never become law. Please DO YOUR JOB and vote on things that matter. Fucking cartoon character villian GOP Congress, I hate them with every fabric of my being.

That was a lark of a comment on my part. I clearly don't know shit.
Eh, don't sugar coat it. King v. Burwell was absolutely terrifying before we knew the ruling.
 

Diablos

Member
Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas) said:
“That’s why I introduced the SCOTUScare Act to require the Supreme Court and all of its employees to sign up for ObamaCare,” Babin said.

Babin’s potential legislation would only let the federal government provide healthcare to the Supreme Court and its staff via ObamaCare exchanges.

“By eliminating their exemption from ObamaCare, they will see firsthand what the American people are forced to live with,” he added.
Okay, bro. Here's what I "live with" right now: Superior health benefits from my employer, but the security of knowing if I lose my job or transition to a new one, I can get a plan on the FEDERAL EXCHANGE WITH SUBSIDIES AWWYIS until my next employer once again offers superior benefits, typically after an evaluation period or what have you.

How is this so fucking awful?
 
They want the SCOTUS to enroll in Obamacare. Wow, what a bunch of assholes. They know this will never become law. Please DO YOUR JOB and vote on things that matter. Fucking cartoon character villian GOP Congress, I hate them with every fabric of my being.


Eh, don't sugar coat it. King v. Burwell was absolutely terrifying before we knew the ruling.

Oh, I was concerned all right. But I meant that I'm the last person to trust for predictions.

Me, in 1995-- "the Web craze is going to die down before it really takes off."

Granted, that was before web commerce was very practical and content hadn't hit critical mass yet-- but it's hilarious in hindsight.
 

Fuchsdh

Member
Speaking of Presidents, I posted this in that hysterical Reagan thread but it can't be posted enough:
dx2fqVj.jpg


Ronaldus Maximus was amazing in so many ways.

I had jammies in that pattern when I was a kid.
 

Diablos

Member
Everyone said television was going to be a fad, too.

re: Reagan pic, what kind of man dresses in that way and leads the country? Even in the 1980's. Shit.

But at least he's wearing a tie, right Republicans?

I wonder what all of these ancient Republicans would think if they came back from the dead and saw Obama as the sitting President.
 
I read this recently:

And it was worth it for the drunk Nixon stories, apparently the guy was a major lightweight.

Notable events Buchanan relates from the 1968 campaign:
-Drunk Nixon walking out into the middle of Fifth Avenue to hail Buchanan a cab and nearly getting hit.
-Drunk Nixon sending Buchanan and other staffer into an airport to get snacks, then as they're coming back Nixon is wandering towards them down the corridor because he decided he wanted some chili. When they get to Miami at 2AM they have to go find an all-night chili place.
-Hunter S. Thompson travels with them for a bit, first he nearly kills them all by smoking next to where the plane was being refueled. Then when he gets his "exclusive hour" with Nixon they spend the entire time talking about football.
-Hunter showed up to the first date Buchanan had with his wife, which was at a hotel with some other politicos/reporters in a group setting. Hunter brought a half gallon of Wild Turkey, which he and Buchanan then consumed entirely while arguing about the Soviet Union to the point of screaming at each other into the morning. The two remained friends until Thompsons death.

It also details Nixon's 1968 strategy of "don't fuck up, let everyone else fuck up, then do something just good enough to look awesome by comparison" and his complete lack of political and ideological principles.

Still one of the best obituaries ever written.
 

Diablos

Member
Whether it's today or not, I find it hard to believe the SCOTUS would rule against Obergefell. There's literally no suspense here, unlike King v. Burwell.
 
Whether it's today or not, I find it hard to believe the SCOTUS would rule against Obergefell. There's literally no suspense here, unlike King v. Burwell.
Eh. I dunno. I was cautiously optimistic about both so while I'm happy that worked out for Burwell I have my reservations about this. Not gonna get my hopes up until it happens.
 

Diablos

Member
Eh. I dunno. I was cautiously optimistic about both so while I'm happy that worked out for Burwell I have my reservations about this. Not gonna get my hopes up until it happens.
Okay well you know the 4 libs are in the bag.

Given how Roberts has ruled in the past I think he'd be receptive to joining them.
Kennedy I think will go that way too.

It's gonna be another 6-3 vote.
 

Diablos

Member
Well, there you have it. 5-4. Kennedy opinion.
Oh shit! Roberts isn't the ultra-liberal that GOP crybabies and their ilk/voterbase are making him out to be. He clearly has some conservative principles, but also employs common sense if necessary. In that regard, he's a very balanced member of the court, but still leans right.

This is another great day for progress in the US.
 
This land is your land, this land is my land, from California, to the New York Island. From the redwood forests to the gulf stream waters, this land was made for you and me!

Patriotism has been vindicated. I knew we could do it. One step closer to the founding promises.
 

Fuchsdh

Member
All four dissenters wrote a dissent. ALL OF THE SALT!

Don't think that necessarily means salt (although I'm sure salt will figure.) If they have differing reasons for dissent it makes sense to write them all out.

EDIT: Roberts' dissent at least doesn't follow that, although I'm sure he'd have to articulate how the Supreme Court doesn't change laws "to how they wish them to be" works with yesterday's decision, since you could make an argument they're the same. The rest of his dissent is mostly that the Constitution guarantees a right to marry but doesn't specify how that right is interpreted.
 
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