1. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (previously 2)
Bush has claimed a clear lead in polling both nationally and in New Hampshire. He runs 7 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival in CNN’s latest national poll and beats the field in New Hampshire by about 5 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average.
He’s also expected to have truckloads of cash, meaning he can sustain a long campaign.
That could help him on Super Tuesday, March 1, when 11 states are scheduled to vote. If the race is still competitive by March 15, Bush’s money edge will be augmented by home-court advantage when Florida votes, along with Illinois, Missouri and Oregon.
The bad news: Despite his national strength, Bush is highly unlikely to win the Iowa caucuses, where he places sixth in the latest major poll, from Quinnipiac University. That ups the stakes for Bush in New Hampshire. If he fails to win the Granite State, he could be in trouble.
2. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (3)
Walker is the favorite in Iowa, where his 17.5 percent support in the RCP average sounds modest but is approximately double the support claimed by his nearest challenger.
An Iowa win would help Walker position himself as the main conservative challenger to Bush. If he locked in that status with an adequate performance in New Hampshire and a stronger one in more ideologically friendly South Carolina, other conservatives are likely to drop out. Walker would be perfectly placed to hoover up their support.
The bad news: Skeptics question whether Walker, the only top-tier contender not officially in the race, has the personal dynamism to deliver on his potential.
3. Sen. Marco Rubio (1)
Rubio has the potential to expand the Republican tent without unduly antagonizing the base.
The Florida senator also has greater crossover appeal to the different factions within the GOP than any other candidate. He was first elected with Tea Party backing; his hawkish foreign policy positions appeal to national-security conservatives; and his youth, Cuban heritage and charisma lead many in the GOP establishment to believe he would be the party’s strongest choice to take on Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
The bad news: Rubio is in fourth place in the RCP national polling average and faces a pressing question: Where, exactly, is he going to win?
In Iowa, Rubio is tied for fourth in the RCP average and seventh in the latest major poll. Unlike Bush, he cannot be confident of bouncing right back in New Hampshire, where he is currently running fifth.
If, as seems probable, he fails to win either contest, there is no guarantee South Carolina would prove more hospitable. Rubio may have a broad base, but it’s easy to see how he could find himself 0-3.