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[ivysaur12]

We should be asking what has caused dem ID numbers to plummet, not questioning the poll. I'd imagine it's Obama Fatigue and the economy, which isn't good to many regular people.

Maybe Sanders would be a better candidate? If his numbers are the same as Hillary's right now, they can only go up once people get to know him...

Well, no, we know that Dem ID is relatively stable, and has gone up right after both the 2008 and 2012 election:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

And let's look at the HuffPo aggregate:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification

If anything, Dem party ID is only going UP. I'm sort of not that thrilled with questioning a poll based on party ID because that's not, like, an innate trait and can change, but again, you're wrong on the idea of Dem party ID going down, at least in the aggregate.

¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[RustyNails]

At the very least that Quinn poll should give the Republicans the boost they need. It will reinforce their views that they don't need minorities or Latinos.

 

[ivysaur12]

Also, as of now Republicans have a bare majority in the NY State Senate, 31-30, counting the 1 Dem caucusing with the Republicans and the 5 Independent Democrats who are caucusing with the Republicans.

If one more Republican gets indictedseat changes hands, they'd have their first majority in a while, save for that blip in 2009-2010.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Republican presidential candidate and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul says he supports military action against Iran to prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon, even though he says it would only delay Iran getting a bomb.

it won't work but bomb them anyways!

 

[Black Mamba]

it won't work but bomb them anyways!

I don't understand the point...

 

[Poodlestrike]

it won't work but bomb them anyways!

Well, it's like this:

We have to stop Iran from getting a bomb.

Use of force could stop Iran from getting a bomb.

Interfering in other countries affairs is wrong.

Doing a big wrong thing is worse than doing a small wrong thing.

Therefore, if Iran is looking to get a bomb, we should bomb them just enough that our efforts to stop them from getting a bomb is not outweighed by the wrongness of bombing them, even if that doesn't actually stop them from getting a bomb.

Bomb bomb bomb bombombombombombombombombomb

 

[Plinko]

LOL at Walker announcing he'll go after each state that legalized marijuana until the laws are changed.

States' rights, am I right?

 

[ivysaur12]

More:

http://www.lohud.com/story/news/pol...utm_medium=['twitter']&utm_source=['dlvr.it']

ALBANY – Sen. Thomas Libous, the state Senate’s second-ranking Republican and a Southern Tier political institution for more than two decades, was convicted Wednesday of lying to the FBI, a felony that will force his removal from office.

A jury found Libous, 62, guilty of lying to federal investigators during a 2010 interview at his State Capitol office, where he was quizzed about an alleged scheme to use his influence to get his son at the politically connected Westchester County law firm of Santangelo Randazzo & Mangone.

The verdict was announced Wednesday in White Plains federal court.

“Today, a jury unanimously found that Tom Libous, the second highest ranking New York Senator, told lie after lie to hide the truth from federal agents investigating corruption in Albany,” U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said in a statement. “Libous’s lies have been exposed, his crime has been proven, and Albany will be the better for it.”

Libous, R-Binghamton, has been a leading politician in his home region since 1988, when he was elected to replace longtime Senate Majority Leader Warren Anderson.

He is the Senate’s deputy majority leader, serving as the Republican majority’s floor leader. Libous is also facing cancer he says is terminal, which started in his prostate and spread to his lungs.

His expulsion from the Legislature’s upper chamber leaves Republicans with 31 seats in the 63-seat chamber, one seat short of a majority. But Sen. Simcha Felder, D-Brooklyn, sits with the GOP, which maintains the party’s last grasp on power at the state level.

But half these people are under investigation anyway!

 

[Metaphoreus]

Anyone following the tunnel issues in NJ this week? The train tunnels into penn station in NY are falling apart. Issues have been exacerbated this week some engineers think because of heat.

Christie is such a disaster.

Did I post this already? I meant to, if not:

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obama administration in final stages of planning Gitmo closing

The Obama administration is in the "final stages of drafting a plan to safely and responsibly" close the terrorist prison at Guantanamo Bay, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Wednesday.

"That has been something that our national security officials have been working on for quite some time," Earnest said.

Earnest was responding to a question about a story in The New York Times that says the effort to close the prison, one of the first promises the president made back in 2009 upon taking office, was faltering and "collapsing again."

Any plan would have to be approved by Congress, which has placed significant obstacles in the way of transferring detainees out of the prison.

Obama is the worst on civil liberties! He hasn't even closed Gitmo!

He might have some support from Congress:

Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, has opened the door in Congress for the administration to submit a plan to close the prison in exchange for tightening restrictions on transferring detainees abroad. But it's considered unlikely the measure will gain enough support from other Republicans to pass.

Here's his bargaining chip:

Earnest said the president has decided to veto a defense spending bill now being negotiated in Congress if it includes provisions that would make it harder to close the prison.

 

[Poodlestrike]

More:

http://www.lohud.com/story/news/pol...utm_medium=['twitter']&utm_source=['dlvr.it']



But half these people are under investigation anyway!

Albany was a mistake, it's nothing but trash.

 

[Metaphoreus]

How to destroy your cell phone with Lindsey Graham

 

[Wall]

Well, no, we know that Dem ID is relatively stable, and has gone up right after both the 2008 and 2012 election:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

And let's look at the HuffPo aggregate:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification

If anything, Dem party ID is only going UP. I'm sort of not that thrilled with questioning a poll based on party ID because that's not, like, an innate trait and can change, but again, you're wrong on the idea of Dem party ID going down, at least in the aggregate.

¯\_(&#12484_/¯

I'm not a fan of using party ID to question a poll either, but when you have a set of polls that diverges so markedly from other polls conducted around the same time, it is hard not look for reason behind that divergence.

All the more reason to only look at polling in the aggregate, rather than focusing on individual polls.

 

[GPsych]

Another caveat is that Quinnipiac has a particularly bad record at polling CO. They had Romney winning by 2 in their final poll and Obama was by 5. In 2014 Hickenlooper was down 10 points in one of their late polls!

Their biggest issue seems to be they always undersample Latinos. A lot will depend on turnout.

Another big issue is that this is the first presidential election in Colorado where they will use mail-in ballots. While no one seems to really know what effect this will have on voter turn-out, the general consensus is that it will likely increase. Personally, I think the mail-in ballots actually helped to save Hickenlooper and defy the polls, but I don't have much in the way of evidence to support this. Anecdotally, I know that a number of younger voters ended up voting because "it was so easy."

 

[Fenderputty]

How to destroy your cell phone with Lindsey Graham

Unsurprisingly, not a very eco friendly way to get rid of electronics. Also what an old ass flip phone.

 

[ivysaur12]

I just.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...s-gop-field-but-descent-may-be-beginning.html

PPP's newest national poll finds that Donald Trump is likely facing at least some fallout from his comments about John McCain over the weekend. Nevertheless we do find him narrowly leading the national field in our survey, which went into the field on Monday. Trump gets 19% to 17% for Scott Walker, 12% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Ben Carson and Marco Rubio, 8% for Mike Huckabee, 4% each for Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, and Rand Paul, 3% each for Chris Christie and John Kasich, 1% for Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum, and less than 1% each for Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.

Trump's lead comes despite the fact that only 22% of Republicans agree with the comments he made about John McCain over the weekend compared to 50% who disagree. Despite his overall lead there are some signs that Trump's comments may have hurt him. For one thing his favorability rating is back down in the 40s, at 48/39. Although it's not a perfect comparison, our state polls in Virginia (58/32) and North Carolina (55/32) over the previous two weeks had found him with numbers in the mid to upper 50's. And although it's an even more imperfect comparison to compare numbers with other polling organizations, Trump's 2 point advantage is a lot less than the 11 point one had in an ABC/Washington Post poll conducted largely before Trump's comments about McCain.

Nevertheless Trump is doing well across the GOP electorate. He leads among voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative' with 20% to 17% for Walker and 16% for Carson. But he also has the advantage with moderates, getting 22% to 19% for Bush and 13% for Rubio. Additionally Trump has the lead both among primary voters who say their biggest concern is having the candidate who's the most conservative on the issues (he gets 20% to 16% for Walker, 12% for Huckabee, and 11% for Carson) and with primary voters who say their biggest concern is winning in the general election (19% to 16% for Walker, 14% for Bush, 13% for Rubio, and 10% for Carson.)

He may not quite have as much support as Trump for the nomination, but Walker is the most widely liked of the Republican candidates following his announcement last week. 58% see him favorably to 15% with an unfavorable opinion. Others in the 50s are Marco Rubio (54/19), Ben Carson (53/19), Ted Cruz (51/21), and Rick Perry (50/20). Their popularity positions all of them well to potentially gain some momentum further down the line.

I'm not a fan of using party ID to question a poll either, but when you have a set of polls that diverges so markedly from other polls conducted around the same time, it is hard not look for reason behind that divergence.

All the more reason to only look at polling in the aggregate, rather than focusing on individual polls.

Yeah, I agree with this, which is why I went after PD on the ID point even though I don't love questioning ID because it is what it is, at some point.

 

[Aaron Strife]

And Clinton leads the 3 GOP front runners (Walker, Bush, Rubio) by 5 in the PPP poll which lines up with her numbers in their last Virginia poll.

But yeah it's way more plausible she's trailing hard in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. Obama fatigue and Benghazi finally kicking in I guess.

 

[Plinko]

I just.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...s-gop-field-but-descent-may-be-beginning.html

"Yeah, he's a racist douche. But he's OUR racist douche."

 

[NeoXChaos]

Clinton is in pretty good shape when it comes to potential general election match ups as well. She leads all of the potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 3 to 13 points, comparable to a month ago when her advantages over them ranged from 3 to 7 points. The Republican who comes closest to Clinton is Rand Paul, who trails by 3 at 45/42. Also coming close are Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker all of whom trail by an identical 5 point margin at 46/41.

and with that, Quinnipac can go right into the trash where it belongs.

 

[FiggyCal]

Why doesn't he just disappear before the debates. It's what three weeks away?

Edit: why does Lindsey Graham have so many cell phones?!?

 

[Aaron Strife]

and with that, Quinnipac can go right into the trash where it belongs.

I think the political temperature of the country hasn't changed much since 2012, but as a consequence of the demographic shifts since then (as well as continued economic improvement, improvements in world relations and Obamacare success stories) Hillary will swing an extra point or two over Obama. She might even match his 2008 performance in the popular vote even if the electoral college totals don't change much.

Hope she has coattails! The Democrats trailed Obama on the House generic ballot by about three points.

 

[RustyNails]

My prediction: RNC will panic and dump Trump right before the debates with the hopes of saving themselves from embarrassment. Trump will pull a George Wallace and unite all the racists under a new AIP. Eventually the GOP will be purged of all the racists and imbeciles, but at the same time also lose electoral advantage. By the time 2016 elections roll out, Trump will be long out of the Presidential race but still plugging his new Apprentice type show on his own channel.

 

[ivysaur12]

also lol:

Trump could definitely make a splash in the general running as an independent at this point though. He gets 23%, taking almost exclusively from Jeb Bush, and leaving Clinton with a 43/25 advantage. Independent voters are a three way tie in that scenario with Clinton and Trump each getting 29% and Bush at 28%. And it's a measure of Bush's difficulties on the right that with 'very conservative' voters Trump actually gets 44% to 41% for Bush and 6% for Clinton.

 

[Yellowtail]

!!!

In 3 way general Clinton gets 43% to 25% for Bush, 23% for Trump

Praying that Trump really is a secret hillaryis44 fanboy right now.

 

[Cheebo]

The real story is Walker breaking away from Bush and being the clear non-Trump front runner consistently in polls. People focus on Trump but Walker keeps rising.

 

[Black Mamba]

also lol:

I'd hate this. Trump running 3rd party will give the GOP every excuse not to change in the next 8 years. Which is bad for the country.

The GOP needs to have someone like Scott Walker get destroyed. Then they can stop crying that it was because of Bush, too moderate new englander, spoiler trump, etc that caused them to lose but rather their platform.

Maybe.

 

[RustyNails]

I'd hate this. Trump running 3rd party will give the GOP every excuse not to change in the next 8 years. Which is bad for the country.

The GOP needs to have someone like Scott Walker get destroyed. Then they can stop crying that it was because of Bush, too moderate new englander, spoiler trump, etc that caused them to lose but rather their platform.

Maybe.

Trump running 3rd party will purge the party of racists and all it will be left with will be paulbots and Goldwater types. Don't we all want that?

 

[FiggyCal]

My prediction: RNC will panic and dump Trump right before the debates with the hopes of saving themselves from embarrassment. Trump will pull a George Wallace and unite all the racists under a new AIP. Eventually the GOP will be purged of all the racists and imbeciles, but at the same time also lose electoral advantage. By the time 2016 elections roll out, Trump will be long out of the Presidential race but still plugging his new Apprentice type show on his own channel.

The RNC is most definitely going to try to bury Trumps campaign. I read something recently that they demanded that the candidates turn their financial disclosures on time to get stage time in the debates. That is a challenge to Trump right? Or am I reading too much into it?

 

[Cheebo]

The RNC is most definitely going to try to bury Trumps campaign. I read something recently that they demanded that the candidates turn their financial disclosures on time to get stage time in the debates. That is a challenge to Trump right? Or am I reading too much into it?

Trump already filed that.

 

[Yellowtail]

The real story is Walker breaking away from Bush and being the clear non-Trump front runner consistently in polls. People focus on Trump but Walker keeps rising.

Trump's helping Walker right now. Walker's Achilles heel is that while he's the perfect nominee on paper he's one "Oops" away from imploding. But no one cares that Walker's just called for war on Iran or said that being gay is a choice while Trump is sucking up all the oxygen in the room.

There's also the argument that Trump is helping Jeb by making him look more moderate, but the base are really going to struggle to accept Jeb's immigration stance after all this. The genie is truly out of the bottle.

The RNC is most definitely going to try to bury Trumps campaign. I read something recently that they demanded that the candidates turn their financial disclosures on time to get stage time in the debates. That is a challenge to Trump right? Or am I reading too much into it?

The RNC is powerless. Preibus phoned up Trump to tell him to tone it down, and Trump smacked him down in public. The establishment piled on after his McCain comments and it had no effect. The only organization that can stop Trump is Fox and right now they're actively abetting him. Even Murdoch has lost control:

According to sources, Murdoch has tried — and failed — to rein in Fox News Chairman and CEO Roger Ailes, who, insiders say, is pushing Fox to defend Trump’s most outlandish comments. This week, Ailes told his senior executives during a meeting that Murdoch recently called him and asked if Fox could “back off the Trump coverage,” a source told me. Ailes is said to have boasted to his executives that he told Murdoch he was covering Trump “the way he wanted to.” The implication was that he wasn’t going to budge.

It’s understandable that Murdoch would be frustrated. Fox News has been a ringleader of the Trump circus. Shortly after Trump jumped into the race, he had a "2-to-3 hour" private lunch with Ailes, sources told me. Last month, Fox gave Trump more airtime than any other candidate. And, according to sources, the channel's personalities are taking an active role in aiding Trump, both on- and off-camera. One source explained that Ailes has instructed The Five co-host Eric Bolling to defend Trump on air. A review of Bolling’s comments shows that over the past week, he’s gone to bat for Trump numerous times. Last Friday, for example, Bolling complained that conservatives shouldn’t be criticizing the real-estate mogul. “There's a problem in America, and it's not Donald Trump,” Bolling declared. He continued to make pro-Trump arguments on Monday and Tuesday’s shows. Another Trump ally is Fox political analyst and pollster Pat Caddell. According to a source with direct knowledge, Caddell has been speaking to Trump “almost every day” about his campaign. “Everything coming out of Trump’s mouth sounds like Pat,” the source said. This morning, Fox & Friends — a show that is used by Ailes to inject his point of view into debates — ran a fawning interview with Trump.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/07/on-trump-murdoch-has-lost-control-of-ailes-fox.html

 

[FiggyCal]

Trump already filed that.

Yeah. But the statement was put out July 9 and Trump released it July 15.

But that's not just it. They also sharply criticized Trump for calling McCain's heroism into question and told him to tone it down when speaking about Latinos.

Edit: see the above

 

[HylianTom]

There's also the argument that Trump is helping Jeb by making him look more moderate, but the base are really going to struggle to accept Jeb's immigration stance after all this. The genie is truly out of the bottle.

If you go to FreeRepublic, Breitbart, or any of the other big conservative news sites, you'll see in the comments that Jeb is regarded as Obama-lite - no better than Satan. Common Core, immigration, his tepid response to the Obergefell ruling, his refusal to roll-back Obama's Iran deal on Day 1.. they have a huge laundry list of complaints about him - a list that's sure to grow if he should get the nomination and continue to triangulate for the general.

If 5% of the GOP base sits at home or goes third party on Election Day as a result of Jeb's nomination, this race is over. They truly mathematically can't afford to lose 5%.

 

[B-Dubs]

Trmup is a run away train. The GOP got into bed with a man they didn't fully understand. He's not in it for the furthering of the conservative cause, the fact they thought he was shows how little they understood his motivations.

 

[Aaron Strife]

If Trump jumped in as a third party candidate I would actively root for him to finish in 2nd place, ahead of Bush. Let the "moderate" Republican establishment face the monster created by the tea party, which they couldn't even credibly claim as a spoiler (if anything Bush would be the spoiler for Trump - not actually but that's the narrative Trump and his supporters would sell) while the Clintons laugh all the way back into the White House.

 

[thepotatoman]

Trump's helping Walker right now. Walker's Achilles heel is that while he's the perfect nominee on paper he's one "Oops" away from imploding. But no one cares that Walker's just called for war on Iran or said that being gay is a choice while Trump is sucking up all the oxygen in the room.

There's also the argument that Trump is helping Jeb by making him look more moderate, but the base are really going to struggle to accept Jeb's immigration stance after all this. The genie is truly out of the bottle.

The RNC is powerless. Preibus phoned up Trump to tell him to tone it down, and Trump smacked him down in public. The establishment piled on after his McCain comments and it had no effect. The only organization that can stop Trump is Fox and right now they're actively abetting him. Even Murdoch has lost control:


http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/07/on-trump-murdoch-has-lost-control-of-ailes-fox.html

Murdoch lost control of Ailes long ago, and probably never had it in the first place. Ailes was never someone you could tell what to do.

I mean, the quote was honestly taken out of context, and Trump brings in the ratings, so why would he want to shove him out of the race for that?

 

[NeoXChaos]

@ppppoll: Ironic thing about Trump trailing Clinton by 13- he leads GOP field w/ voters who say winning in fall is top concern:

hold me.

 

[Plinko]

hold me.

Finding it very, very hard not to generalize the entire GOP base right now.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

There is no chance in hell Trump runs third party. I don't believe it for a second. He's too full of himself to take a chance doing something he could publicly fail at. All his other failures he's been able to brush under the rug or bluster his way through somehow. But taking on the entire GOP, insulting all the candidates, then losing, attempting to take his ball and go home, and losing again? I can't see him doing that.

 

[B-Dubs]

There is no chance in hell Trump runs third party. I don't believe it for a second. He's too full of himself to take a chance doing something he could publicly fail at. All his other failures he's been able to brush under the rug or bluster his way through somehow. But taking on the entire GOP, insulting all the candidates, then losing, attempting to take his ball and go home, and losing again? I can't see him doing that.

If the GOP brass forces him out he will absolutely run third party. Dude will be on a mission to fuck them in the worst way possible.

If he loses because his support dries up then he won't run 3rd party. But if he gets forced out while his numbers are still good? It'll be on like Donkey Kong.

 

[NeoXChaos]

If the GOP brass forces him out he will absolutely run third party. Dude will be on a mission to fuck them in the worst way possible.

If he loses because his support dries up then he won't run 3rd party. But if he gets forced out while his numbers are still good? It'll be on like Donkey Kong.

^This. Trump only cares about one person and that is Trump. He will absolutely do it if they force him out. What better motivation than if Bush ends up as the nominee. He can't stand Jeb and his family. There will be many Republicans that will flock to him in a general election if it came to it.

 

[ivysaur12]

Not gonna lie, Maddow interview Santorum feels a bit gross. Seems like a quick ratings grab from a struggling network to have the personification of homophobia on screen against Maddow. And one who might not even qualify for the debates.

 

[Mario]

hold me.

That seems to line up with the conclusion Republicans seemed to collectively arrive at from the last election - "not conservative enough".

Apparently, a "no nonsense", outspoken, hardliner, wanting to "take the country back" with extreme policies is viewed as more likely to win the Presidency than somehow who can find common ground and compromise amongst all citizens. Assign blame, rattle the sabers, and let them know how discontent and morally outraged you are at pretty much everything even louder than before while offering no practical solutions and this time victory will surely be achieved!

This is why Republicans will lose again.

 

[Trouble]

Not gonna lie, Maddow interview Santorum feels a bit gross. Seems like a quick ratings grab from a struggling network to have the personification of homophobia on screen against Maddow. And one who might not even qualify for the debates.

Just felt boring to me. He gave the same non-answers that he has been giving for a while.

 

[Plinko]

Steve Doocy compared Trump to a Navy SEAL today.

OK.

 

[Fenderputty]

Even the polling dicussion kinda bores me I'm glad you've all moved on to a new page. Staring at Coulter's jaw line was bothering me.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Finding it very, very hard not to generalize the entire GOP base right now.

"Everyone I know supports Trump! He could win!"

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Steve Doocy compared Trump to a Navy SEAL today.

OK.

I see no distinction between SNL and real life anymore.

 

[B-Dubs]

I see no distinction between SNL and real life anymore.

SNL isn't as funny.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

SNL isn't as funny.

this made me LOL in real life.

 

[Retromelon]

Even the polling dicussion kinda bores me I'm glad you've all moved on to a new page. Staring at Coulter's jaw line was bothering me.

She's a handsome woman.