Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
There are no words.
I am as well. Much rather have him than Walker, that's for sure.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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There are no words.
I am as well. Much rather have him than Walker, that's for sure.
BertramCooper
Banned
At some point someone on the right will mount a coordinated campaign against him.
Whoever it ends up being will probably try to conceal any connections to the party establishment, but the bread crumbs will be there.
I think he would, if the Republican establishment wasn't going to try to nuke his campaign.
But then I also have a hard time believing that Trump actually thinks he can win; but it does make sense.
Nah. His lead is due to a mix of name recognition, media attention and, crucially, the size of the Republican field. When there's 20 people in the race, you can be on top with 20% even if the other 80% thinks you're an asshole (they don't, but it's close).
Once it's down to Trump and another guy, the other guy will win.
If Trump even thinks he's being forced out he will run 3rd party. Guaranteed.
Aaron Strife
Banned
There was a poll recently that had him at 28% support - granted this was before the McCain comments but he seems to have a much higher ceiling than people are giving him credit for.
If he comes out of the first debate looking good to GOP voters he could take the race.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
US political reporters become idiots when the story involves the clintons.
PhoenixDark
Banned
No, he's not. We saw similar candidates rise and fall in 2012. Trump has no agenda outside of himself, he isn't meeting with voters or doing stump speeches or just about anything but talk to the media. He won't win a single state and will more than likely drop out after March's Super Tuesday. We're all looking forward to the debates and I fully expect him to embarrass himself.
speculawyer
Member
The John McCain & Mitt Romney moderate backlash is real.
The base wants the brashest loudest obnoxious a-hole. And right now, that is Trump.
To some degree, I think the heavy Gerrymandering is back-firing on them. They are so successful at electing fire-breathers into the House of Representatives that they don't see why they can't just elect a fire-breathing nutter into the White House. The big victories in the mid-term elections give them a false sense of popularity.
If Trump crashes & burns, I wonder if some other nutter will replace him . . Cruz, Santorum, Ben Carson, Huckabee are possible . . . but probably Scott Walker.
And none of this really matters because all of them would lose in the general.
The base wants the brashest loudest obnoxious a-hole. And right now, that is Trump.
To some degree, I think the heavy Gerrymandering is back-firing on them. They are so successful at electing fire-breathers into the House of Representatives that they don't see why they can't just elect a fire-breathing nutter into the White House. The big victories in the mid-term elections give them a false sense of popularity.
If Trump crashes & burns, I wonder if some other nutter will replace him . . Cruz, Santorum, Ben Carson, Huckabee are possible . . . but probably Scott Walker.
And none of this really matters because all of them would lose in the general.
So do I, but he's exactly the kind of candidate the tea party has been looking for. He's not going to go anywhere, I agree, but dismissing him outright is silly too. If he does well at the debate, which isn't impossible given the idiots he'd be debating and the crowd he'd be appealing to, he could very well be off to the races.
This just feels different than something like last time's constant rise and fall. I can't exactly put my finger on it, and this isn't just my love for comedy talking.
Jack Remington
Banned
But teh mainstream liberal media!!!
Aaron Strife
Banned
Trump is polling better than any Republican in 2012 at this point and that includes Mitt Romney.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Why? It's another mass shooting that gun control would not have prevented.
Well, he is governor of the state where this happened and running for president and doing very poorly in the polls, just two weeks before the first debate. So just for the sake of attention.
Edit: nvm about riling up the base.
In a state with the least strict gunlaws in the nation.
What? No.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/25/us/lafayette-theater-shooting-john-houser.html?_r=0
If you want to get more technical, maybe this isn't the fault of Louisiana -- we don't know where he bought his guns or how he acquired them, but to brazenly state that gun control couldn't have prevented this is premature at best.
That is ridiculous. He literally devoured everyone else's support in the few weeks since he entered the race.
The polling for the Dems is equally hilarious, but for different reasons. Bernie is barely beating Biden despite Biden not running or even campaigning. Unless upcoming debates change the dynamic of the race, Hillary is running away with this one.
It seems the GOP is truly embracing their new found recognition as being clowns and going with the leader of the three ring circus.
RastaMentality
Banned
Trump doubling 2nd place in that poll. Goddamn.
Coriolanus
Banned
Why? How is this a bad thing?
When wasnt she running away with this one lol.
StopMakingSense
Member
Nah, this is just the logical conclusion of everything the GOP has been doing for the past 20 years. Let it play out.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Have we seen anything like this in the past 20 years? I can't remember anything. It's crazy.
And hilarious.
Jeb! still in 2nd, though. If Trump DOES drop, most of his votes go to Jeb, which sucks for everyone else.
Coriolanus
Banned
If he drops we'll most likely experience the same "anyone but El Jebe!" cycle from last time, before finally settling on him (or walker. 1% difference aint nuthin' to scoff at).
few believed Trump would actually jump into this race, but look where we are now. everything I ever wanted from a Trump campaign has become reality.
we're living in golden times.
Brawndo Addict
Banned
Trump ain't doing shit, he's just a blaggard. People who think there's even an inkling of a third party run are nuts or just having fun; he said he might jump in the 2012 race all the time but no one took that seriously for good reason. He's just gotta ride this out till he can gracefully exit saying that he has "changed the conversation" and "shifted the Republican Party" or whatever. He's not interested in governing, he's interested in being a high-profile candidate; he's never done anything like Reagan's governorship to show he's actually serious.
Coriolanus
Banned
Yes, but he's a billionaire. That means he knows how to run stuff, and why should a billionaire settle for anything as small as a state when he knows he can take care of the whole country? After all, far less successful men than him managed to. Heck, a failed actor and a crappy attorney were the best prezes that country ever had!
I'd say that trying to predict what this version of The Donald will do (aside from saying inflamatory stuff) is a bit of a fool's errand. Just relax and enjoy the ride.
Brawndo Addict
Banned
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It's not, but polling already showed Jeb get a ton of "second choice" votes. If Trump leaves, he's the guy.
I dunno.
Trump said some pretty nasty things about Mexican immigrants and then saw his numbers soar; it's hard to imagine many of his supporters feeling very enthustiastic about Jeb "Act of Love" Bush. I still see this race boiling-down to Bush vs AntiBush, and more and more I'm thinking that the GOP base isn't in a mood to have The Establishment Pick shoved down their throats.
Trump said some pretty nasty things about Mexican immigrants and then saw his numbers soar; it's hard to imagine many of his supporters feeling very enthustiastic about Jeb "Act of Love" Bush. I still see this race boiling-down to Bush vs AntiBush, and more and more I'm thinking that the GOP base isn't in a mood to have The Establishment Pick shoved down their throats.
Biden 2016 motherfuckers
Don't gotta convince me brother, if I hear Uncle Joe's trans-am I'm running to it.
This is what's different now, there's no inevitable candidate behind him waiting for Trump to fall. There's no Mitt Romney with infinite money waiting everyone else out. If Trump can capture that air of inevitability, if he can become this round's Mitt Romney, the guy with all the money who can wait everyone else out, then he's got it in the bag. The scary thing is, this isn't impossible.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah and Jeb Bush is the only other GOPer with meaningful name recognition, essentially making it between himself and Trump.
Civil liberties won tho
Now confirmed with you being wrong!!
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/55b2ba13e4b0224d8832646a?
But yes. Nothing could've been done to prevent this.
Black Mamba
Member
Dude was committed into an institution for mental instability by force and still legally bought a gun soon after release.
The NRA has run up the score.
Meanwhile the NY likely makeup the Clinton story in a hit piece. Newer info.
http://www.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-new-york-times-emails-357246
The NRA has run up the score.
Meanwhile the NY likely makeup the Clinton story in a hit piece. Newer info.
http://www.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-new-york-times-emails-357246
If true, that's horrendous journalism. Oh my god.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
LOL NYTimes.
The sad thing is it doesn't matter, the throw shit of on the wall and make her unlikable works with a lot of people
Manmademan
Member
no one but the hard right wing is paying any attention to the email business, and even they will forget about this shit come campaign season.
RastaMentality
Banned
Yeah, the public got over it pretty long ago and even then it wasn't even massive news. Right wing media blowing it up on a weekly basis is only gonna make people care less.
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