Fenderputty
Banned
Keep your government out of my medicare Jeb!
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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Keep your government out of my medicare Jeb!
http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_summer_sencong072215.pdf
UNH has Ayotte over Hassan, 47 - 41. A lot of that comes from Ayotte having more unified Republican support, and having a (now) 14 point edge in Independents.
Jeanne Shaheen still the most popular politician in the state with a 56/32 approval rating. Frank Guinta's approval ratings are underwater, which one would expect after the scandals he's been involved in. Ann McLane Kuster is slightly underwater at 37/33. Though given her 10% win in 2014, with lower favorables, I wouldn't expect her to be in any danger come 2016.
Remember, New Hampshire is one of THE most elastic states in the country.
UNH has Ayotte over Hassan, 47 - 41. A lot of that comes from Ayotte having more unified Republican support, and having a (now) 14 point edge in Independents.
Jeanne Shaheen still the most popular politician in the state with a 56/32 approval rating. Frank Guinta's approval ratings are underwater, which one would expect after the scandals he's been involved in. Ann McLane Kuster is slightly underwater at 37/33. Though given her 10% win in 2014, with lower favorables, I wouldn't expect her to be in any danger come 2016.
Remember, New Hampshire is one of THE most elastic states in the country.
If you can believe it, yes.
speculawyer
Member
Well, it doesn't matter if he runs on it or not during the general. Just cut up what he already said and make it into a commercial.
Do negative ads even work anymore? both sides are so entrenched in their ideaology with true independents decreasing by the day that I wonder if it will even matter in the end. Both sides will have money to blanket the airways bombing each other. Hillary's "what difference does it make" or "Benghazi" and Jeb's "People need to work longer hours" "Woman need a husband" etc. Both sides will probably have underwater approval rating for most of the campaign.
BertramCooper
Banned
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
On those issues, Trump is far moderate. Trump is only extreme in immigration and possibly foreign policy, though that depends on what Jeb says he'd do about Isis.
Trump is also an all around asshole, but that doesn't make you an extremist by itself.
Spoiler tag that shit, bruh.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Hey PD, that Pew poll has Obama's approval at 48-45. I mean I know you already decided voters are sick of him buuuut.
Jack Remington
Banned
Wat. I thought Ayotte was one of the ones we were definitely knocking off next year.
Not without Hassan and not without a substantial wave that makes it impossible for Ayotte to run up the score ahead of the R nominee.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-small-senate-battlefield/
I was listening to Forum today on NPR and they talked about how, in a normal society, everything Obama has done in the last few weeks would normally result in huge approval boosts.
However, not in today's political climate. The guest didn't directly blame racism, but it really is a combination of racism, Fox News fanning the hate flames, and people like Trump et al leading the birther movement and pandering to the tea party.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Like how Bush's approval was over 90 shortly after 9/11 but Obama topped out at like 56 after Bin Laden was killed.
Yeah... Obama has really been turning to in terms of doing things during his final couple of years. It's a shame only historians will appreciate it... As long as they aren't from Texas and write text books.
Ayotte has never been as much of a slam dunk. It'll be very close, though considering Hassan is in the middle of a budget battle and hasn't even announced, I'm not exactly surprised that her numbers have been a bit depressed.
That being said, Shaheen, Ayotte, and Hassan are the three best politicians that New Hamsphire has. Taking out Ayotte will be challenging and expensive.
I also imagine that, given its swing state status but increasingly D voter thread, the race will polarize more than it is has now.
That being said, Shaheen, Ayotte, and Hassan are the three best politicians that New Hamsphire has. Taking out Ayotte will be challenging and expensive.
I also imagine that, given its swing state status but increasingly D voter thread, the race will polarize more than it is has now.
"I need to keep up with Trump. I know! I'll immediately throw away any chance of winning Florida I might ever have."
Guys, she's got 2018 in the fucking bag:
http://agwired.com/2015/07/15/senator-heidi-heitkamp-honored-by-asa/
http://agwired.com/2015/07/15/senator-heidi-heitkamp-honored-by-asa/
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yup. Bush stands on a pile of rubble and gets the highest approval ratings of any president in history. Obama catches the guy responsible and no one wants to give credit to the black guy.
Also Obama is naive and idealistic for wanting to arrange a peace deal with Iran, strike down embargoes on Cuba and end wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. What a hippie
Btw the only Senate slam dunks really are Wisconsin and Illinois (and I hesitate to say anything is a slam dunk). The good news is that there are so many competitive Senate seats that Democrats just need to pick up two more. FL, OH, NH and PA are all on the board.
It just means you are learning from your 2014 debacle and keeping your expectations in check. That is only a good thing.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I only go into denial during midterms. We've got to win one eventually! (I wasn't politically aware during 2006 so I didn't get to revel in that)
Third Strike
Member
I think the Dems will only get a successful midterm election if it is during the reign of a Republican president, especially an unpopular one (like 2006). I simply hope for great turnouts for the presidential elections, to soften the blow of the succeeding midterms.
Retromelon
Member
If another tragedy on the scale of 9/11 were to happen tomorrow, obama would get the same numbers as bush did, and so would any incumbent president. An existential threat sparks national unity, killing osama is not in the same ballpark. Its not nearly so simple as not giving the black guy credit
Bullshit. It would be "9/11 was an unpredictable black swan event, but it happening again under Obama proves he was asleep at the wheel / derelict in duty.making pacts with Iran and lighting the whitehouse in rainbows when he should have been killing ISIS"
Roland_Gunner
Member
Obviously modern politics is a problem for Obama but don't ignore the facts that labor force participation is at a multi-decade low and wage growth is still very slow. The recovery has been slow given how bad the recession was and people are still feeling the pain.
Retromelon
Member
That is a fringe. That isnt the country
If by fringe you mean about 40% then yes, a fringe. If killing Osama bin Laden didn't bump him up to 90% that says a lot about our country.
No, we are in an election season. Republicans are looking for any way to gain on the democratic party. Obama would be absolutely blasted for "letting it happen" and there would be tons of hearings on the hill, someone would be forced to resign, and national security would immediately become the biggest issue of the campaigns which advantages republicans because it forces social and economic issues to the side. Every republican candidate would attack Obama, the press would give it 24/7 crisis news coverage and the dems would be buried.
Retromelon
Member
What you arent paying enough attention to are the words "on the scale of". When that many lives are affected, you don't play a political blame game with it.
Also, osama in 2011 did not have the heat that killing him in 03-05 would bring. It was a nice achievement but it wouldnt be enough to make people hardened in their opposition to obamacare, taxes and liberalism say that they approve.
Also, osama in 2011 did not have the heat that killing him in 03-05 would bring. It was a nice achievement but it wouldnt be enough to make people hardened in their opposition to obamacare, taxes and liberalism say that they approve.
Jack Remington
Banned
Oh yes you do.
Retromelon
Member
Don't say benghazi
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah I think a lot of people (Republicans) would hold Obama accountable for another 9/11-type event in a way that Bush wasn't, although depending on his reaction there might be a smaller rallying effect.
I don't think any sitting president will ever see 90% approval ratings again, and especially not a Democrat. Generally I think Democrats are more open to liking a Republican than vice-versa, but even then the advent of the Internet has produced echo chambers for each side to a point where there will always be 20-30% dead enders who refuse to support someone on the other side. Clinton's 73% in that one poll is probably the most one could hope for (and his approval will probably go down once the Clintons are more active on the campaign trail). Obama's approvals were high 60s/low 70s when he came into office and that could very well be where he ends up after a few years out of office.
I don't think any sitting president will ever see 90% approval ratings again, and especially not a Democrat. Generally I think Democrats are more open to liking a Republican than vice-versa, but even then the advent of the Internet has produced echo chambers for each side to a point where there will always be 20-30% dead enders who refuse to support someone on the other side. Clinton's 73% in that one poll is probably the most one could hope for (and his approval will probably go down once the Clintons are more active on the campaign trail). Obama's approvals were high 60s/low 70s when he came into office and that could very well be where he ends up after a few years out of office.
He'd never take it. Trump plays second fiddle to no man.
If he did take it he'd wind up sinking the campaign anyway.
He's in it to win. He has no other motives. He wants the big job, it's that simple.
Nah. Really?
Trump is a simple dude. Just imagine the most egotistical insane billionaire you can, multiply that ego and insanity by 10 and you'll start to understand Trump. He really does think he would make a good president, he really believes all the shit he says. Not only that, but he lives for revenge. This is going to be a perfect storm of insanity, just sit back and enjoy the ride.
Retromelon
Member
Who could?
See..because..
See..because..
And by the way, can I just say how I find it hilarious how Republicans are claiming Trump is a Democrat plant. Even if that were the case, it wouldn't take away from the fact that Republican VOTERS are loving what he's saying/doing.
It reminds me of one of my favorite SNL Weekend Update jokes back in the 90s:
"Our top story tonight: a shocking new development in the O.J. Simpson case. Late this afternoon, a high-ranking official in the Los Angeles Police Department admitted to Geraldo Rivera that the police did conspire to frame O.J. Simpson for the murders of Nicole Brown and Ron Goldman. However, they called the conspiracy off when they got to the murder scene, and found that O.J. really did do it. "
Damn it. They used Fox News style graphs. The drop seems a lot bigger than it is only cause they started count at the 70th percentile. Was almost excited for a sec there.
It reminds me of one of my favorite SNL Weekend Update jokes back in the 90s:
"Our top story tonight: a shocking new development in the O.J. Simpson case. Late this afternoon, a high-ranking official in the Los Angeles Police Department admitted to Geraldo Rivera that the police did conspire to frame O.J. Simpson for the murders of Nicole Brown and Ron Goldman. However, they called the conspiracy off when they got to the murder scene, and found that O.J. really did do it. "
Damn it. They used Fox News style graphs. The drop seems a lot bigger than it is only cause they started count at the 70th percentile. Was almost excited for a sec there.
Retromelon
Member
Don't see why you got so excited. I have a white friend and he isn't all what the stereotypes make you think
Great dancer
Great dancer
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
Criminal inquiry sought in Clinton email account:
I'm sure it's nothing.
In other news, I was surprised to see how graciously Ted Cruz handled a group of Code Pink protestors.
NYT said:
I'm sure it's nothing.
In other news, I was surprised to see how graciously Ted Cruz handled a group of Code Pink protestors.
Retromelon
Member
Ted cruz ofen uses politeness to offset his rhetoric and make himself seem reasonable. He remains the garlean emperor
speculawyer
Member
I agree with B-Dubs. He wants to be president and thinks he could win. Don't ever underestimate the ego or irrationality of Donald Trump.
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