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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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R

RustyNails

Member
Trump looks like the kind of guy that says to brietbart that they're losers and he's the best thing that ever happened for their site hits. I highly doubt such a blindingly ego driven guy like Trump would feed scraps to anyone.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
NeoXChaos said:
If they don't think he is a threat why the desperate attempts at secretly sabotaging him? They seem to be fueled by their own sense of paranoia. You don't see Hillary's camp trying to sabotage bernie sanders. They must not be confident in any of their candidates to survive the primary without huge scars.
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Uh...take a look at the Black Lives Matter thread. Some allege Hillary people got BLM to go after Bernie.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I made this for you PoliGAF:

YAmTv4c.jpg
Click to expand...

I love misusing marketing campaigns.

EDIT:
http://www.straightouttasomewhere.com/
May I suggest someone make a "Straight Outta Calgary" one for Ted Cruz
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
NeoXChaos said:
can you avatar that for me if possible. I want to use it.


28k in portland. 9,000 outside the door. Hillary needs to start doing rallies. I wonder if she could get that high amount?

proxy.jpg
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She got 5,500 for her announcement speech, I'm not sure that she will really excite people enough to turn out in droves like Bernie does until she becomes the nominee.


That said, even from Hillary's position, I'd be a little concerned knowing that Bernie is getting literal stadiums of people to show up. He'll be in Los Angeles tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if the crowd exceeds 50,000.
 
W

watershed

Banned
Bernie is doing the Obama thing. I wonder if Hillary's team is gonna make the same mistake again of not taking their opponent seriously until the dynamics of the primary have hardened and she loses any momentum she might have had.
 
K

Konka

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
She got 5,500 for her announcement speech, I'm not sure that she will really excite people enough to turn out in droves like Bernie does until she becomes the nominee.


That said, even from Hillary's position, I'd be a little concerned knowing that Bernie is getting literal stadiums of people to show up. He'll be in Los Angeles tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if the crowd exceeds 50,000.
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It literally doesn't matter. Ron Paul got stadiums of people too.

watershed said:
Bernie is doing the Obama thing. I wonder if Hillary's team is gonna make the same mistake again of not taking their opponent seriously until the dynamics of the primary have hardened and she loses any momentum she might have had.
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No.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
OrangeGrayBlue said:
She got 5,500 for her announcement speech, I'm not sure that she will really excite people enough to turn out in droves like Bernie does until she becomes the nominee.


That said, even from Hillary's position, I'd be a little concerned knowing that Bernie is getting literal stadiums of people to show up. He'll be in Los Angeles tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if the crowd exceeds 50,000.
Click to expand...

Demographics matter and that's one white looking crowd.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
watershed said:
Bernie is doing the Obama thing. I wonder if Hillary's team is gonna make the same mistake again of not taking their opponent seriously until the dynamics of the primary have hardened and she loses any momentum she might have had.
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I'm not sure there's much she can do.

What would you advise? Perhaps coopt some of bernie's positions?
 
W

watershed

Banned
speculawyer said:
I'm not sure there's much she can do.

What would you advise? Perhaps coopt some of bernie's positions?
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Start campaigning more probably. She's got another policy rollout soon but she hasn't been nearly as visible either with the press or voters as Bernie has. He is running a campaign to build momentum and she isn't. She's taking the Jeb Bush route of building up money instead. I will give her credit for getting a strong ground organization going and Bernie is not as much of a thread as Obama was in 2008, but she seems to be giving up the "enthusiasm gap" again when she doesn't have to.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
RE: Bernie rallies.

Is there anything really impressive about Bernie getting huge rallies in Seattle or Portland? He should be getting big numbers there. White, educated, liberal bases play exactly to his strengths.

(Also, Hillary really needs to be doing more of these types of events)
 
I

IronicallyTwisted

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I doubt any serious republican candidate or operative is worried that Trump will get the nomination - he won't even win one contest. The fear is twofold:

-If you're an establishment candidate like Rubio or Bush you realize Trump's presence hurts the brand. His comments on Hispanics have done real damage to the party, and if I was a GOP official I'd want him out of the race ASAP before he can do more damage.

-If you're a conservative or fringe candidate, Trump is stealing momentum and headlines from you. Cruz has been quite cordial to Trump but I'd bet his campaign is very frustrated that their man cannot grab headlines like he used to. Cruz's big dust up with McConnell last week barely registered in the news due to Trump. Likewise a candidate like Fiorina is being sidelined by him, despite the fact that she's a good enough campaigner to be in the top ten.
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Trump isn't gathering support from the fringe right, he's gathering support from the moderate wing. He's a secular candidate with an immigration policy that explicity favours Americans and has a softer line on healthcare. No other candidate has that mix of attributes.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
IronicallyTwisted said:
Trump isn't gathering support from the fringe right, he's gathering support from the moderate wing. He's a secular candidate with an immigration policy that explicity favours Americans and has a softer line on healthcare. No other candidate has that mix of attributes.
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That would explain why religious zealots ted cruz & ben carson kept their supporters.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
IronicallyTwisted said:
Trump isn't gathering support from the fringe right, he's gathering support from the moderate wing. He's a secular candidate with an immigration policy that explicity favours Americans and has a softer line on healthcare. No other candidate has that mix of attributes.
Click to expand...

speculawyer said:
That would explain why religious zealots ted cruz & ben carson kept their supporters.
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Gah... no, it doesn't. Trump's appeal has little to nothing to do with his policy positions and everything to do with his messaging. His people are voting for him because they're so fucking angry at... something, that the guy expressing that anger most directly is who they gravitate to. If it wasn't for Trump, they'd be going to someone like Cruz with the record of obstructionism, but Trump's brash in-your-face style trumps Cruz' substance.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
IronicallyTwisted said:
Trump isn't gathering support from the fringe right, he's gathering support from the moderate wing. He's a secular candidate with an immigration policy that explicity favours Americans and has a softer line on healthcare. No other candidate has that mix of attributes.
Click to expand...

I think it's right that Trump is taking more support from the moderate right than is often assumed, however I don't think policy is the reason. The reason is simple marketing.

The establishment candidates usually can rest on marketing from media coverage, television advertisements, and history in the spotlight which all reach the mainstream, continually reinforcing the view of that candidate as president, while the Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruzs of the world mostly get stuck where only the political nerds out there know them well enough to see them as president material.

Trump is the rare candidate that can get all that mainstream branding as president material without the establishment helping him out. His style of marketing might only work on conservatives, but its quantity and loudness is reaching beyond conservative nerds who live and breath conservative politics and into the mainstream.
 
I

IronicallyTwisted

Banned
thepotatoman said:
I think it's right that Trump is taking more support from the moderate right than is often assumed, however I don't think policy is the reason. The reason is simple marketing.

The establishment candidates usually can rest on marketing from media coverage, television advertisements, and history in the spotlight which all reach the mainstream, continually reinforcing the view of that candidate as president, while the Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruzs of the world mostly get stuck where only the political nerds out there know them well enough to see them as president material.

Trump is the rare candidate that can get all that mainstream branding as president material without the establishment helping him out. His style of marketing might only work on conservatives, but its quantity and loudness is reaching beyond conservative nerds who live and breath conservative politics and into the mainstream.
Click to expand...

I think its fairly clear its his immigration comments alongside the Kate Steinle murder propelled him to front-runner status. Leaving out Trumps political agenda is just giving a license not to think about his political success at all.
 
D

dramatis

Member
ivysaur12 said:
RE: Bernie rallies.

Is there anything really impressive about Bernie getting huge rallies in Seattle or Portland? He should be getting big numbers there. White, educated, liberal bases play exactly to his strengths.

(Also, Hillary really needs to be doing more of these types of events)
Click to expand...
The number itself is still pretty impressive. The problem is that his crowds are basically seas of white.

Seattle supposedly has a 33% non-white population, and Portland 28%. For a number like 15k or 20k, you'd think there would be more minority representation.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
B-Dubs said:
Demographics matter and that's one white looking crowd.
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I'm not disagreeing, but it's Portland. The city is over 75% white, and less than 7% black.

Edit- I'll be at the rally in LA tomorrow, which I think will give a better idea of whether or not Bernie can draw non-white crowds. The city has less than 30% non-hispanic white population. If the crowd is still predominantly white then yeah, it's a problem.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
RE: Bernie rallies.

Is there anything really impressive about Bernie getting huge rallies in Seattle or Portland? He should be getting big numbers there. White, educated, liberal bases play exactly to his strengths.

(Also, Hillary really needs to be doing more of these types of events)
Click to expand...

To be perfectly honest I don't think Hillary could get that many people at a rally in Seattle or Portland.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
We should be getting the post-debate polls today, shouldn't we?
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Poodlestrike said:
Gah... no, it doesn't. Trump's appeal has little to nothing to do with his policy positions and everything to do with his messaging. His people are voting for him because they're so fucking angry at... something, that the guy expressing that anger most directly is who they gravitate to. If it wasn't for Trump, they'd be going to someone like Cruz with the record of obstructionism, but Trump's brash in-your-face style trumps Cruz' substance.
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The antiabortion religious zealots will not support Trump unless he gets the nomination. And maybe not even then. He's been pro choice in the past so they don't trust him. With good reason.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
HylianTom said:
And now, the next page of the story.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppin...y-to-site-for?utm_term=.ury0oMxm0w#.otPdKRwNZ

I'm going to run out of popcorn gifs before we even get to September.
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Plinko said:
Why wouldn't this have hit two weeks ago? Why not days before the event? All of a sudden FOUR of these people say it happens? Seems suspicious.
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Mckay coppins is a shill for the GOP establishment. And using random anonymous sources who don't even know how such a thing is going on they just "suspect?" The amount of transparent GOP leaks in an attempt to shut trump down is embarrassing they're funneling most of the oppo-anti-trump stuff to the Daily Beast and Buzzfeed it seems. So that if anything blows up they aren't harming the rightwing outlets trust with the readers. They went a bit far with the FOX debate and I think they learned their lession
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
To be perfectly honest I don't think Hillary could get that many people at a rally in Seattle or Portland.
Click to expand...

And if you put Hillary in a Cleveland or Cincinnati, her rallies would probably eclipse those of Bernie's.

Also, for fun: The PVI of every state in every election from 1828-2012 -- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...gzfcA4JS4VNgIqcj_wAPc-XzE/edit#gid=1370551484

ALSO: Yes, Frank Guinta is probably not going to run because he's currently being crushed by ethics complaints, BUT GUESS WHO'S GETTING READY TO RUN AGAIN https://twitter.com/SamEB_NHPR/status/630768422960398336
 
K

Konka

Banned
Is it entirely out of the realm of possibility for Romney to step in at some point if the whole process is in danger of implosion?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
ivysaur12 said:
And if you put Hillary in a Cleveland or Cincinnati, her rallies would probably eclipse those of Bernie's.

Also, for fun: The PVI of every state in every election from 1828-2012 -- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...gzfcA4JS4VNgIqcj_wAPc-XzE/edit#gid=1370551484

ALSO: Yes, Frank Guinta is probably not going to run because he's currently being crushed by ethics complaints, BUT GUESS WHO'S GETTING READY TO RUN AGAIN https://twitter.com/SamEB_NHPR/status/630768422960398336
Click to expand...

Amazing PVI doc. You can tell by the PVI when the states start changing parties. Kansas has not had a +D PVI since 1916. How has that state managed to be Republican for so long?
 
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