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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LOL at Fiorina being double-digits. Definitely the Herman Cain of this cycle. She'll implode soon enough.

I expect the poll to be similar to that NBC/Survey Monkey poll result.

Also, Trump leading with evangelicals? WHAT? I seriously wonder what would have happened if he would have had to answer that last question at the debate.
 

Bowdz

Member

original


I honestly can't believe how much coverage Trump managed to get this weekend. On CNN, literally every show with the exception of Zakaria GPS started with Trump news. He is going to be studied for generations to come in marketing with regards to dominating the news cycle.
 

thefro

Member
original


I honestly can't believe how much coverage Trump managed to get this weekend. On CNN, literally every show with the exception of Zakaria GPS started with Trump news. He is going to be studied for generations to come in marketing with regards to dominating the news cycle.

Dude learned from the master Vincent Kennedy McMahon

gxV6ZDul.jpg
 

Ecotic

Member
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-still-leads-in-iowa-fiorina-on-fire-paul-tanking.html

PPP's newest Iowa poll finds Donald Trump leading the Republican field in the state even after a weekend of controversy. He's at 19% to 12% for Ben Carson and Scott Walker, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Carly Fiorina, 9% for Ted Cruz, and 6% for Mike Huckabee and Marco Rubio.

The other 9 candidates are all clustered between 3% and having no support at all (George Pataki)- John Kasich and Rand Paul are at 3%, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum at 2%, Chris Christie at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, and Pataki all have less than 1%.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Surprised Walker is still the leading "establishment" Republican after that snoozer of a debate performance. He seems to be just waiting for Trump and co to blow up and hope everything falls his way.
 

Konka

Banned

Even better.

But at any rate Trump does have the advantage with pretty much every segment of the GOP electorate- he's up with Evangelicals, men, women, voters in every age group, moderates, voters who are most concerned with having the candidate who is most conservative on the issues, and voters who are most concerned about having a candidate who can win the general election.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 52% to 25% for Bernie Sanders, 7% for Martin O'Malley, 3% for Jim Webb, and 1% for Lincoln Chafee. That represents a decent amount of tightening since April- Sanders' support has increased from 14% to 25%, with Clinton's dropping correspondingly from 62% to 52%.

Dominating still.
 
Bobby Jindal almost out of the kids table. He can almost taste being watched on national television for a non-shooting again.

Rubio's numbers still suck for being the guy who seems like he should eventually be the nominee.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Lol @ Christie

When can we expect this blowhard to drop out? Dude missed the golden opportunity in 2012. He could have even made Obama sweat. The crown was his for the taking and he just shat the bed spectacularly.

He didn't stand a chance back then either, he wasn't disciplined enough for a general election. He'd have yelled at a marine who disagreed with him at a town hall and ended his campaign right there.
 
Look I'm just saying the GOP voting base has proven time and time again that they've both lost their grip on reality and don't give a shit.

Not surprised Paul dropped off. He was humiliated in that debate. Might as well come into the next one wearing a dunce cap.
 

teiresias

Member
Being concerned about electability against Hillary and still picking Trump just shows how delusional the base of the GOP is at this point.
 
Surprised Walker is still the leading "establishment" Republican after that snoozer of a debate performance. He seems to be just waiting for Trump and co to blow up and hope everything falls his way.

Iowa is part of the Walker's midwest "base". He needs to be winning there. PPP just pointed out that he was at 23% the last time they polled Iowa.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Surprised Walker is still the leading "establishment" Republican after that snoozer of a debate performance. He seems to be just waiting for Trump and co to blow up and hope everything falls his way.

Not surprised at all. He said absolutely nothing in the debate. Nobody attacked him. Once they start attacking his record, he's done.

I'm stunned Jeb! is still in double-digits.
 
Also find it just fascinating when you consider the state of the race just a few weeks ago. Trump was leading, but Walker and Bush were never too far behind and everyone else (save Rubio and Paul I guess) were practically nonentities.

Now you're telling me that fucking Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are in the top 5? The undecided voters aren't flocking to the frontrunners, they're propping up the joke candidates.
 

StoveOven

Banned
I wouldn't worry too much about Christie being so low. He was never going to win Iowa. Now if he's down that low in New Hampshire and National polls, then he'll have some issues
 

RDreamer

Member
Retweeted by PPPPolls:

Aggregate of @ppppolls in Iowa;
Never Held Office: 41%
No Longer in Office: 23%
Currently in Office: 35%

lol, GOP...

Surprised Walker is still the leading "establishment" Republican after that snoozer of a debate performance. He seems to be just waiting for Trump and co to blow up and hope everything falls his way.

That might be a decent strategy. I still think Trump is going to blow up. After that I think there'll be a dwindling field to flock to, and Republicans are going to be hesitant to hold their nose and vote for another "Romney" with Bush. They were already told to vote for the establishment candidate last time. I don't really see that working again. So that leaves Walker as a sort of middle ground between what the crazies want and what the establishment wants.

I really hope while he's in the lead Trump takes out Walker with some punches, though.
 
Surprised Walker is still the leading "establishment" Republican after that snoozer of a debate performance. He seems to be just waiting for Trump and co to blow up and hope everything falls his way.

Agreed. Walker is sitting pretty waiting for the inevitable fall of Trump. The true danger is Cruz IMO. He could split the conservative vote and perhaps hand Bush the victory.

I think Walker, Rubio, Cruz, and Bush will be the last men standing. I used to think Rand would be apart of that group but now...I'm stunned at how bad his campaign has been.
 

Konka

Banned
Is it now fair to recognize that Trump isn't like the flavor of the week candidates from 2012 and is actually the real front runner?
 
Voters are clearly tired of career-politicians not getting the results they want. I can see people reasoning that perhaps the only way to move forward is with a candidate completely outside of politics altogether.

Now obviously there's a big difference between a Perot/Bloomberg and Trump/Carson, but it's not like they have good non-political options available.

How Trump is winning women though, that's inextricable.
 
Trump leads the Republican field with 32 percent of the vote, up 7 percentage points over last week’s Morning Consult tracking poll. Trump’s nearest GOP rival, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, clocked in at 11 percent.

No other Republican contender reaches double digits – retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson sits in third place at 9 percent, followed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 6 percent.

http://morningconsult.com/2015/08/trumps-lead-grows-after-debate-controversy/
 
Is it now fair to recognize that Trump isn't like the flavor of the week candidates from 2012 and is actually the real front runner?
I think so. He just needed to have a good debate and by all accounts he did.

Its still possible that his candidacy will implode but man, the days turn to months and he's still on top.
 
Is it now fair to recognize that Trump isn't like the flavor of the week candidates from 2012 and is actually the real front runner?

I do feel like Trump has held too wide a lead for too long to be considered dismissable. At this point, I think a lot of his supporters want him and only him so badly that they'll stay home on election day if he isn't the nominee. His appeal is that he isn't a politician, his base won't turn around and vote for Jeb!.
 

Konka

Banned
eh, its only been one debate and 2 months since he announced?

He has a broad coalition, he is leading among groups that play to the strength of other candidates, like Huckabee with Evangelicals while leading among moderates. Something that broad doesn't just flame out overnight.
 
I think Trump is dangerous for the GOP largely because his base consists of people who otherwise wouldn't give a shit. If any other candidate drops out, their base will move on to some other candidate. If Trump drops out, some of his base may go to Cruz but I think the bulk are going to say "fuck it, I don't care any more". He seems to have a pool of voters all to himself that the rest of the party can't access.
 

RDreamer

Member
I think Trump is dangerous for the GOP largely because his base consists of people who otherwise wouldn't give a shit. If any other candidate drops out, their base will move on to some other candidate. If Trump drops out, some of his base may go to Cruz but I think the bulk are going to say "fuck it, I don't care any more". He seems to have a pool of voters all to himself that the rest of the party can't access.

It just shows how much republican propaganda has really pushed anti-government, anti-establishment sentiment. Look at that post I had up a bit. 41% of republicans in Iowa are for someone who has never held office in their life. They're fed up with everything and while I can't say the bulk are going to say "fuck it" and not vote... well, I think a good portion of them will fight to the very last and if Trump or someone does run 3rd party, good fucking luck to 'em.

The establishment can't push the narrative that the base has to hold their nose and vote for someone who can win this time. They tried it twice. The bases kicked and screamed and ultimately voted Romney, but even that didn't work. They're going to rebel this whole cycle and it's going to be hilarious.
 
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