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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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P

pigeon

Banned
Metaphoreus said:
Honestly, I'm like many of you, in that I think the 2016 election is particularly important for Supreme Court nominations. So, like many of you, I'd reluctantly cast a defensive vote for a candidate I'd rather not vote for, if necessary (e.g., Bush or--God help us--Trump). Luckily, I know how my state will go, so casting such an odious vote won't be necessary.
Click to expand...

I appreciate your bravery in admitting that you'd vote for Trump over any Democratic candidate.

If Trump is actually elected I will immediately call for your banning. Nothing personal!
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Grexeno said:
That's because that only flied with Republicans because it simply was demonstrably false.

Bernie Sanders has literally said, on video, that he is a socialist.
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Except the type of socialist the Republicans want to paint isn't what Sanders is, either.

And I'm not saying it wouldn't be a detriment, just that it isn't as big as if he had run 8 years ago pre-Obama. After 8 years of saying he's the most left person to ever walk the face of the earth and socialist as all fucking hell and will ruin everything because of that I'm just not sure they'd be able to make that point quite as well. They'd either have to walk back the talking points of Obama being a socialist or go full on even more ridiculous with the accusations and I'm just not sure that's even possible.

Coriolanus said:
Do not misconstrue the issue, there is no need for that. You're dealing with people that think that having a socialist running against whatever clown is put up by the other side is a bet worth taking.

To be fair to them, the opposition's field has seldom been weaker.
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Yeah, I'm pretty confident in Sanders vs Trump.

Sanders vs someone else is much, much rougher.
 
Z

Zero-Crescent

Member
dramatis said:
I thought "Eagle One" from the "Man Guarding Muslim-free Gun Range Shot Himself" thread was the worst nickname I've seen today, but apparently not.
Click to expand...

Not everyone can be Carlos Danger.
1TQKShO.gif
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Grexeno said:
The Unites States elected George W. Bush because we would like to have a beer with him and Al Gore was a bit of a weirdo.

I feel like one side is clearly delusional.
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The United States elected an atheist black kenyan muslim from a fundie church running on Hope and Change. Twice. One of those over a war hero.

Weirder things have happened.

Y'all's cray cray, is what i'm saying.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Carson also struggled to both explain and defend his 10 percent flat tax plan – one in which he said earners would pay “according to your ability” but that in fact would turn the progressive federal income tax system on its head. Flat tax plans have been kicking around Washington and conservative think tanks for years, but Carson said he got the idea from the Bible and the concept of tithing, in which the faithful routinely contribute a tenth of their income to the poor and needy.

“You make $10 billion a year, you pay a billion,” he explained to Wallace. “You make $10 a year, you pay one. You get the same rates. That's pretty darn fair if you ask me…. Now some people say poor people can't afford to pay that dollar,” Carson added. “That's very condescending. I can tell you that poor people have pride too. And they don't want to be just taken care of."

A dubious Wallace pointed out a serious flaw with the flat tax when applied to “the real world.” Citing a study by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, Wallace said that the government couldn’t raise as much in revenue as it does now unless the flat tax rate were higher than 20 percent – which would effectively raise the tax rate for many lower income wage earners while reducing the existing tax rate for upper income Americans.

"That's actually not -- I don't agree with that assessment," Carson replied. "Because I've been in contact with many economists. And in fact, if you eliminate the loopholes and the deductions then you're really talking about a rate somewhere between 10 and 15 percent."

Wallace didn’t appear convinced. "I've got to tell you that outside experts we talked to, you're talking in the 20s. For instance, you talked about low-income families. Not only don't they pay, they actually get an earned income tax credit. Now, you're going to have them paying 10 to 15 percent of whatever income they have or 20 percent if my experts are right."
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/carson-faces-increased-scrutiny-rises-201100301.html

LOL Carson. Sure. "Poor people have pride" is the new talking point, eh? Yeah, I'm sure that's enough reason to put the massive tax burden on their shoulders.

I don't think these idiots have any idea how crushing a flat tax would be to the economy because of what it does to the poor and middle-class.

Then again, maybe they do, and that's the reason they want it this way.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
I think general election polls this early do have some predictive power. Obama held a consistent lead in the poll averages in 2011 all through 2012. People had decided early on they were going to give him a second term.

This time around there'there's no great mystery. People know how they feel about Obama's tenure and they know they feel about Hillary. She's an incumbent practically. It wouldn't surprise me if her lead holds for 90% of the time from now until election day, except for a convention bounce or bounce from securing the nomination.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
It feels dirty to me. I know it's not a rational feeling at all. I can't help it though. The Bernie Sanders threads and his supporters are actually making me not like Bernie.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Incognito said:
james carville comes out of retirement to belittle luke russert

http://www.msnbc.com/andrea-mitchel...inton-adviser-hits-back-at-media-508613699830

best 6 minutes ever.

i haven't laughed this hard in a long. luke russert's intro: "hillary clinton defiant in the face of polls showing a campaign in decline....." this guy.
Click to expand...

I always liked seeing him on CNN or wherever talking about shit after debates or on election night, I miss him. He had enough style that watching talking heads became bearable.

Plinko said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2015/08/19/scott-walker-goes-wobbly/

Hilarious article on how Walker is losing his followers because he is grasping on to birthright citizenship/etc. his campaign team says he is going to try and latch onto the antiestablishment fervor.

Good luck with that.
Click to expand...

Welp, there goes Walker.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Y

Yellowtail

Member
Plinko said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2015/08/19/scott-walker-goes-wobbly/

Hilarious article on how Walker is losing his followers because he is grasping on to birthright citizenship/etc. his campaign team says he is going to try and latch onto the antiestablishment fervor.

Good luck with that.
Click to expand...
Walker is dumb as hell. I don't understand why he's overreacting so badly to falling in the polls. It's not as if he could reasonably expect to hold on to a lead in Iowa for ten months straight until the caucus.

He's a good fit (on paper) for Iowa. The trick has always been to organize, organize, and organize, and then get hot and seize the momentum in the month before the caucus. Obama understood that, Huckabee got that, Clinton gets that now. Instead of waiting things out, Walker's blowing up his chances with donors, local party activists, and general election voters by trying to out-Trump Trump. Stupid.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Yellowtail said:
Walker is dumb as hell. I don't understand why he's overreacting so badly to falling in the polls. It's not as if he could reasonably expect to hold on to a lead in Iowa for ten months straight until the caucus.

He's a good fit (on paper) for Iowa. The trick has always been to organize, organize, and organize, and get hot in the last month before the caucus. Obama understand that, Huckabee got that, Clinton gets that now. Instead of waiting things out, Walker's blowing up his chances with donors, local party activists, and general election voters by trying to out-Trump Trump. Stupid.
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It's because he's dumb as hell. You answered your question in your first sentence.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Has he faced a serious primary or opposition candidate as Governor? I had heard that a major reason he won was WI's Democratic Party has no good candidates.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
Has he faced a serious primary or opposition candidate as Governor? I had heard that a major reason he won was WI's Democratic Party has no good candidates.
Click to expand...

The biggest thing shielding Walker is that he has never actually faced a presidential electorate. He's only run in midterms.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
pigeon said:
The biggest thing shielding Walker is that he has never actually faced a presidential electorate. He's only run in midterms.
Click to expand...

Basically, this.

That combined with opponents that do absolutely nothing for younger voters means he really wasn't facing much.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
B-Dubs said:
It's because he's dumb as hell. You answered your question in your first sentence.
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Lol yeah. Part of Walker's problem is that he has to win Iowa. He's got no chance in New Hampshire and he's polling terribly across the South (although I'm not entirely sure why).

I'm increasingly struggling to see his path to the nomination. Although that' s true of all of them really.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
Also, HA, Jennifer Rubin wrote that article. Yeesh.

He really is looking like Rick Perry '16.
Click to expand...

Like PD I still think he is the most likely pick. Trump and Carson are not surviving in the top spots till Feb and who else is there? He is really the only one left that both the base and the establishment both are equally fine with.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Cheebo said:
Like PD I still think he is the most likely pick. Trump and Carson are not surviving in the top spots till Feb and who else is there? He is really the only one left that both the base and the establishment both are equally fine with.
Click to expand...

And by fine you mean apathetic about.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Basileus777 said:
And by fine you mean apathetic about.
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The base is a lot less apathetic about Walker than Bush.

It's going to be one of the 3: Bush, Walker, or Rubio (although I think Rubio has no chance at all, its more Walker or Bush). The non-politicians are not going to win this thing. And of those 3 Walker is the safest pick from both perspectives.

My prediction remains and I see absolutely no reason for it to change yet:

Clinton/Castro

vs.

Walker/Rubio
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
PoliGAF 2016 Republican Nomination Winner Prediction Sweepstakes

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wKbdijaOwa_gPNJYrGktcaa9l2qRmKiUb0OAZ9Qw2J4/edit?usp=sharing

Walker
PhoenixDark 8/19/15
Cheebo 8/19/15
RDreamer 8/19/15
FiggyCal 8/19/15

Trump
Plinko 8/19/15
B-Dubs 8/19/15
Poodlestrike 8/19/15
Jack Remington 8/19/15
Makai 8/19/15
SourShoes 8/19/15
Fenderputty 8/31/15
Ivysaur12 8/31/15
Aaron Strife 8/31/15
HylianTom 8/31/15


Bush
NeoXChaos 8/19/15
kingkitty 8/19/15
NYCmetsfan 8/19/15
ErasureAcer 8/19/15
titiklabingapat 8/19/15
Y2Kev 8/19/15
Trouble 8/19/15
Bowdz 8/19/15
Ignatz Mouse 8/20/15

Rubio
Frank the Great 8/19/15
Farmboy 8/19/15
ItWasMeantToBe19 8/20/15
KMS 8/20/15
BertramCooper 8/31/15

Jindal
Retromelon 8/19/15

Cruz
JesseEwiak 8/19/15
Manmademan 8/20/15


Kasich

Fiorina

Carson

Huckabee

Gilmore

Patacki

Santorum

Perry

Graham

Paul

Christie
Click to expand...

List will be updated periodically. You have till October 2nd* to choose a candidate. Choose wisely.

*New Date
 
I

Incognito

Troll
give me a break with julian castro talk. that guy is a dud. i'd actually much prefer his twin brother joaquin since julian's allies have been burning bridges in clinton world talking him up for VP.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Republican Nomination Winner Predictions

Walker
PD
Cheebo

Trump
Plinko
B-Dubs

Bush
NeoXChaos
Ivysaur12

Rubio

List will be updated periodically
Click to expand...

I'd probably be in the Walker prediction camp given those choices.

Feels weird though because I so desperately want him to tank harder than anyone else.

My prediction does hinge on Trump tanking at some point, and as time goes on I'm a bit less sure on that...
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I think Rubio has a much better chance than Walker. Rubio does well in debates, and we've got many more to go.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Republican Nomination Winner Predictions

Walker
PD
Cheebo
RDreamer

Trump
Plinko
B-Dubs

Bush
NeoXChaos
Ivysaur12

Rubio

List will be updated periodically
Click to expand...

Stick me under Trump. I think he's gonna carry this thing, unless the establishment actively screws him out of it, be that in terms of media or in a brokered convention.

Incognito said:
give me a break with julian castro talk. that guy is a dud. i'd actually much prefer his twin brother joaquin since julian's allies have been burning bridges in clinton world talking him up for VP.
Click to expand...

Actually heard a really great interview with Julian the other day on NPR; dude sounds like he gets it. Would be great for outreach to younger voters, and of course Latinos (though that might not be necessary if it comes down to Hildawg vs. Trump).
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Fenderputty said:
It feels dirty to me. I know it's not a rational feeling at all. I can't help it though. The Bernie Sanders threads and his supporters are actually making me not like Bernie.
Click to expand...

I'm a lot more apathetic about him than I used to be, but it's less because of his supporters and more because I've actually started paying attention to some aspects of his platform (and I can thank pigeon for that)

e: Also, gonna wait a bit before I enter the PoliGAF GOP Nomination Sweepstakes
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
RustyNails said:
When does the entry to this competition end? I would like to wait until few more RNC debates and more polling.
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Havent decided. Trump is the biggest wildcard to lock in a time and vote. He could implode any day now. On the other hand if your a Rubio, Walker or Bush guy they will go the long haul indefinitely passed the first 4 contest.

If I had to pin a date for the lock in it would be after the 3rd Debate. It would give the Trump people enough time to see whether Trump is really another "flavor of the month" or something unprecedented.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Poodlestrike said:
Actually heard a really great interview with Julian the other day on NPR; dude sounds like he gets it. Would be great for outreach to younger voters, and of course Latinos (though that might not be necessary if it comes down to Hildawg vs. Trump).
Click to expand...

but there's so many other qualified latinos who are just as good, if not better. granted, he's not as stilted in interviews as he used to be, but trust me having worked with him and against him, the guy is a total snooze fest, especially compared to joaquin. he needs to lighten up and cool it on copying obama's mannerisms....
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
NeoXChaos said:
Havent decided. Trump is the biggest wildcard to lock in a time and vote. He could implode any day now. On the other hand if your a Rubio, Walker or Bush guy they will go the long haul indefinitely passed the first 4 contest.

If I had to pin a date for the lock in it would be after the 3rd Debate. It would give the Trump people enough time to see whether Trump is really another "flavor of the month" or something unprecedented.
Click to expand...

If Trump survives the second debate and is still on top then he is not flavor of the month. I don't really think you can call him that now as he is literally setting the standard for the GOP litmus tests.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
B-Dubs said:
If Trump survives the second debate and is still on top then he is not flavor of the month. I don't really think you can call him that now as he is literally setting the standard for the GOP litmus tests.
Click to expand...

Fair point. The 2nd debate is September 16th and polls take a week or more to show an effect. The contest closes September 25th. Could that work?
 
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