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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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I'm going with Bush, but I don't think anyone is really a favorite.

Except Trump who will get screwed out of the nomination somehow and run as a third party candidate and beat Bush for 2nd.
 
PD's lost so many avatar bets. They're like a gentlemen's wager for $1 to him at this point in time.

This go around seems so crazy I wouldn't dare bet away the awesome Vin Scully. That might change in 3-4 weeks but I doubt it.
 
Surely you mean borderline receiving funding from terrorists.

I don't think he's allowed to accept any money from Israeli citizens. But by hosting his event there, he is providing economic support to the Israeli settlers living in an area where official US policy is "they should not be living there".
 
The fascinating thing about that bit, were it to happen, is that pretty much nothing would create the New Republican Party faster.

I wonder if we'll ever see a realignment in our lifetimes like what happened in the 60s.

Here's hoping that happens with Trump, his hard push for immigration and it splinters the hardcore tea parties from the moderates.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
What's going to happen to all of Jeb's money if he loses?

tumblr_mhdd50Ewot1qazkdco1_500.gif
 

watershed

Banned
Mike Huckabee and self-declared liberals using the same argument against Black Lives Matter: MLK would disapprove.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...matter-martin-luther-king-121524.html?hp=l6_4

“When I hear people scream, ‘black lives matter,’ I think, of course they do. … But all lives matter. It’s not that any life matters more than another,” Huckabee said. “That’s the whole message that Dr. King tried to present, and I think he’d be appalled by the notion that we’re elevating some lives above others.”

I don't know about any of you, but I've lost count of how many times liberal friends and people around me and on gaf tout the "MLK would disapprove" or "I agree with BLM but let's not forget all lives matter" arguments.
 
To be honest, I think the GOP primary is way too up in the air to wager anything on.

I can only go so far as to say I think one of the outsider candidates will win. Just as expected, this is looking like the Republican version of the 1968 or 1972 Democratic primaries, where party power is unraveling as the party coalition comes apart. Could be Trump. Could be Cruz. Could be Carson. Could be Huckabee! But right now my bet is that it won't be Jeb, Walker or Rubio. (Or just maybe it is Rubio, he wins, and he's the Republican Carter and is out after four years when it becomes clear he can't actually deliver any Republican goals because they're insane.)

I kind of predicted this after 2012. Only, I thought it would be more like 2020 when this happens (after a Hillary defeat).

But Trump seems to be accelerating the process.

If a guy like Bush or Kasich wins the primary and lose badly to hillary, then by far and away it will crumble in 2020. It'll be the last straw against the party power. Probably true with Rubio and others (including Walker).

But if someone like Cruz or Trump wins, not sure if that means it unraveled now or will happen in 2020. Trump in particular could be described as a celebrity joke in the end.

Man, this primary is so nuts. It's funny to see the GOP in such disarray in terms of the Presidency,
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I wonder if we'll ever see a realignment in our lifetimes like what happened in the 60s.

Here's hoping that happens with Trump, his hard push for immigration and it splinters the hardcore tea parties from the moderates.

It seems very likely with the demographic problems facing republicans. Maybe republicans can make do with a small change but the problems they're facing seem much deeper than that.

Who knows what the bible belt will do if all of their social issues completely go away and they're faced with the simple choice of higher spending verses lower taxes.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Trump is light years ahead of the rest of the field when it comes to speaking to the public. I mean, it's not even close.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Trump is light years ahead of the rest of the field when it comes to speaking to the public. I mean, it's not even close.

Sure, except for when he turns into Grampa Simpson and trails off on unimportant details.
 
Jeb Bush said while he supports granting birthright citizenship to the children of immigrants, the policy needs "greater enforcement" to prevent "abuse."

Appearing on Bill Bennett's radio show Wednesday, the former Florida governor and current Republican presidential hopeful said he backs cracking down on potential exploitation of the immigration system.

"If there's fraud or if there's abuse, if people are bringing, pregnant women are coming in to have babies simply because they can do it, then there ought to be greater enforcement," he said. "That's the legitimate side of this. Better enforcement so that you don't have these, you know, 'anchor babies,' as they're described, coming into the country."


Bush made similar remarks Tuesday, calling birthright citizenship a "constitutionally protected right," but adding that there should be a "targeted way" to "solve abuses, of people coming into the country so their children can become citizens."

Bush's remarks came as a number of his fellow GOP candidates have voiced support for repealing or changing the 14th Amendment, which says all individuals born in the United States are citizens regardless of their parents citizenship status. The idea of repeal picked up traction with Republican candidates after business mogul Donald Trump included it in his immigration plan, calling birthright citizenship "the biggest magnet for illegal immigration." Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker joined in on Monday, saying birthright citizenship should "absolutely" end. A number of other GOP candidates, including Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, have all called for changing or re-examining the policy.

As The Huffington Post's Cristian Farias reported Wednesday, attempts to end the policy would likely be unconstitutional:

The reason these proposals would be found unconstitutional is rooted in the very thing Republicans are attacking: the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

Because for all the provisions and principles that the 14th Amendment stands for -- and birthright citizenship is only one of them -- one of the amendment's cornerstones is its promise of equal treatment for everyone.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeb-bush-birthright-citizenship_55d51071e4b055a6dab2e315

Wow. This is some Grade A weakness. Good luck selling that shit to the base. It looks pathetic to Hispanics and hardcore conservatives at the same time (for different reasons). This guy...
 

danm999

Member
Not sure I understand what Trump was saying when he tied Jeb and chief justice Roberts in with obamacare.

I think he was basically saying you can't trust the Bushes to make intelligent calls with regards to the Supreme Court. Roberts was their guy and he let Obamacare off the hook twice.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I think he was basically saying you can't trust the Bushes to make intelligent calls with regards to the Supreme Court. Roberts was their guy and he let Obamacare off the hook twice.

Are we in a world where Thomas does not exist because I am quite sure a Bush appointed him. Come on Donald try harder next time.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Gloves are off.

Trump is going to go off on Jeb tomorrow.

Though I'm not sure how quickly the field will be whittled down, I really want it to come down to these two for the nomination. We'd see a shit-ton of money spent attempting to destroy each other, and one side would be verrrrrrrry unhappy with the result. It'd be like one of those cartoon arms races where they're each taking turns pulling out increasingly large weapons.. it'd be glorious.
 
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