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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Remember when Herman Cain was the flavor of the month? And I believe it was Gingrich after. Maybe the two are flip-flopped. I don't remember that closely.

Ultimately the GOP put a more moderate Romney forward. I think that was probably smart even though they lost.
That Cain=>Gingrich=>Santorum combo was all sorts of magical.

Was also quite interesting to see how even big conservative media would never hype Paul.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So RCP now has Walker leading the GOP field in Iowa (+8) and in New Hampshire (+0.8). We need more polls, but woo wee.

His numbers in New Hampshire are going to drop as the primary closes in, either Rand or Jeb is going to win that one. I can't see Walker winning Iowa and New Hampshire, especially the latter given a lot of his views. He can only sidestep the issues for so long before he has to say something.
 
The petition is close to 200k signatures...wow. I didn't even expect it to overtake the Snowden petition which was the #1 most popular petition for a long time. Although completely useless in its goals, it does add to the widespread condemnation that's going on.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
The petition is close to 200k signatures...wow. I didn't even expect it to overtake the Snowden petition which was the #1 most popular petition for a long time. Although completely useless in its goals, it does add to the widespread condemnation that's going on.

It's a way for people to condemn them for it, it's not gonna do anything but it's a good way to show how seriously people are taking it. I mean the guy behind the counter at my local pizza place was talking about it today, Chelsea was playing PSG today and this guy never not talks about the Champion's League. It was fucking surreal.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Graham wants to use the military to prevent defense budget cuts lololol

God damn, I knew he was crazy, but man, this is really freaking crazy.

Lindsey Graham said:
And here's the first thing I would do if I were president of the United States. I wouldn't let Congress leave town until we fix this. I would literally use the military to keep them in if I had to. We're not leaving town until we restore these defense cuts. We are not leaving town until we restore the intel cuts.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Let's take a moment to appreciate what an amazingly glorious of a choke-job this game was.
SoGood.gif

I still can't believe such a choke-job actually happened. I mean, how do you even fuck up that badly? Zlatan got sent off and everything. They should have waltzed through that game.

God damn, I knew he was crazy, but man, this is really freaking crazy.

He's giving me the vapors, and not in a good way.
 

Chichikov

Member
I still can't believe such a choke-job actually happened. I mean, how do you even fuck up that badly? Zlatan got sent off and everything. They should have waltzed through that game.
WPEmnFc.jpg


Comedy gold.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Ugh, as much as I love Jon Stewart, he does occasionally have this habit of bringing up false equivalencies. On yesterday's episode of TDS he compared what the Republicans did with that letter to Iran with Nancy Pelosi talking to the Syrian prime minister (or whatever the title is for their leader).

Goddamn it, Jon.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Do we have a thread following the Israeli elections? Even the wsj has an article in it this morning about how bibi is sinking so Likud must really be up shit's creek.
 

Diablos

Member
Who is poised to replace Bibi and are they really much different than him?

I doubt it. Jonathan Bernstein has written about this a couple of times.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-12/republicans-arent-rigging-the-electoral-college
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...cans-probably-wont-rig-the-electoral-college/

Two reasons why this is unlikely:

1. Any change like this disempowers the state and the state's politicians while empowering the national party. If Michigan passes this bill it suddenly has the electoral importance of Nebraska. But the people who have to pass this change are the state politicians who will be losing power and influence.
2. The implicit message of a change like this is that, although Republicans control Michigan/Florida/Wisconsin, they are fundamentally blue states that Democrats will continue to win. So to want to pass this bill, you have to believe that you got into office basically on a fluke and don't really represent your state. But you probably don't believe that, because you're a politician. You probably believe that you're the next wave of Republican dominance of these "swing states." In which case, why would you dilute their electoral effectiveness?
Good points, but would it not be tempting to those state GOPers to finally have a reason to prevent Hillary from winning the White House? Some probably would not mind less political ego if it meant that. Thus being the reason why they'd dilute their effectiveness.
 
Do we have a thread following the Israeli elections? Even the wsj has an article in it this morning about how bibi is sinking so Likud must really be up shit's creek.

I refuse to get my hopes up but yea, it seems like he could lose.

A text message sent to Likud activists, imploring them to get friends and relatives to vote on Tuesday, reads: “We are in danger of really losing!”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...c-in-likud-ranks-as-opposition-gains-momentum

doesn't that sound like something dems sent out in October 2012 though? We'll see.
 
looking at polls from the past couple weeks it's looking like Likud's reliably anywhere from tied to 3% behind right now

so I dunno, Bibi might actually finally lose
 
Let me suggest a nonpartisan analogy. Let's say that I post on two Internet forums, the second of which includes a section devoted to discussing the first. Let's say that I, as though a child incapable of understanding his emotions, want to communicate to my fellow second-forumgoers that I wish cancer upon one of the folks posting in the first forum (who goes by the moniker "So-and-so"). So, I write a post at the second forum that says: "Dear So-and-so: I wish you would die of cancer." This serves a function (sparking a discussion about the poster or, at the very least, conveying my disgust with his prolixity), even though it isn't communicated to the person on whom I wish cancer. This is like the Senators' open letter if it is not sent to the foreign leaders: it's accessible to them (being open and online), but not directly sent to them. Its purpose is to force a domestic dialogue with (or about) the president, not to open a dialogue with the foreign leaders.

But imagine that I, childlike emotional underdevelopment and all, feel that the message is pointless unless I am certain it is received. So, I send a PM to the person on the first forum on whom I wish cancer: "Dear So-and-so: I wish you would die of cancer." This serves decidedly different functions, including specifically conveying to that poster how I feel about him and opening a direct dialogue between us. This would be like the open letter if it is sent to the foreign leaders: the Senators can be fairly confident of its receipt, and its sending suggests that perhaps the foreign leaders (as opposed to the president) should be involving Congress in negotiations.

This is a really good analogy, actually.

Another example I thought of would be this. Instead of telling a bunch of low-income people with heart disease, cancer, etc, that I wish for them to die of their conditions, I could just very vocally support an outcome of a lawsuit that would result in some of those people dying of cancer, heart disease, etc. I'm not actually telling them directly that I'm okay with them dropping dead, but I am indirectly saying it.
 
This is a really good analogy, actually.

Another example I thought of would be this. Instead of telling a bunch of low-income people with heart disease, cancer, etc, that I wish for them to die of their conditions, I could just very vocally support an outcome of a lawsuit that would result in some of those people dying of cancer, heart disease, etc. I'm not actually telling them directly that I'm okay with them dropping dead, but I am indirectly saying it.


Ummmmmm ....
 
Hmm. I can't see it being a joke exactly, but I could simply call it a misuse of the word "literally". This is a prime example why "literally" should never be used metaphorically.

Or why people should not literally only use the dictionary definition and instead tell by the tone, and general usage in common parlance
 
Ummmmmm ....

You think Michael Cannon gives a crap if someone on chemo right now gets that treatment cut off if his lawsuit succeeds?

I've got no respect for that man at all. He showed himself to be completely dishonest about the suit when he switched his position from "It's a glitch, but we should go after it anyway" to "That was clearly Congress' intention all along."

Plus some of his columns in Forbes makes it quite clear he cares little about the suffering that could result from this lawsuit.

I'd be happy to link you to the relevant Michael Cannon op-eds if you'd like to see what I'm talking about here.
 

pigeon

Banned
Good points, but would it not be tempting to those state GOPers to finally have a reason to prevent Hillary from winning the White House?

That would require them to believe that Hillary is a shoo-in for winning the White House in general and their states in particular.

It's their whole job to make that not be true!

Even outside of politics, people generally have a hard time making decisions on the basis that they are terrible at their job.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Shutdowns, Government Defaults, Defunct Grand Bargains, Debt Ceilings, Citizens United, People like Cruz/Rubio getting elected, zero compromise. Now they send that letter to Iran.


What happened to the Republican Party? They werent always like this.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Ummmmmm ....

I agree. Jack's first day back and he's already trying to rekindle the King argument? Meanwhile, the rest of us have accepted an implicit truce, whereby I don't subject you all to endless torment and, in exchange, I am not forced to subject you all to endless torment.
 
You know for a lot of people that would have been really difficult an they would have struggled. Cruz is just so robotic, it's kind of amazing. I realize watching that video that he has never actually engaged his audience in any fashion, just recite line, pause for applause, repeat.

Cruz will never be President. Not because of his politics or anything really substantial but because he is the living, breathing form of Droopy.

Droopy_dog.png


Every time I see him speak, I can only see Droopy speaking. He looks and sounds like him. And I'm sure that's in everyone's subconscious.

I know it's superficial, but voters are superficial, and I'm so unafraid of this clown becoming President compared to some others.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Cruz will never be President. Not because of his politics or anything really substantial but because he is the living, breathing form of Droopy.

Droopy_dog.png


Every time I see him speak, I can only see Droopy speaking. He looks and sounds like him. And I'm sure that's in everyone's subconscious.

I know it's superficial, but voters are superficial, and I'm so unafraid of this clown becoming President compared to some others.

Now I can't unhear it!
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Cruz will never be President. Not because of his politics or anything really substantial but because he is the living, breathing form of Droopy.

Droopy_dog.png


Every time I see him speak, I can only see Droopy speaking. He looks and sounds like him. And I'm sure that's in everyone's subconscious.

I know it's superficial, but voters are superficial, and I'm so unafraid of this clown becoming President compared to some others.

Droopy? Nah. He's whiny, sure, but I've never thought of Droopy while listening to him speak.
 
You know for a lot of people that would have been really difficult an they would have struggled. Cruz is just so robotic, it's kind of amazing. I realize watching that video that he has never actually engaged his audience in any fashion, just recite line, pause for applause, repeat.

YES!

That is why it is so hilarious. He is talking at the audience not speaking to them. He would deliver the same speech, regardless of who was in the room and take the same applause breaks.
 
Yeah, when I think of Droopy, I think more of someone like Joe Lieberman.

Yeah, this one obviously works too. He just looks like the old man version. Cruz doesn't have the voice as low, but the mannerisms in tone to me.

regardless, he has the charisma of a plank. We all joked about Romney being a robot but he had 100000 times the charisma of Cruz.
 

bananas

Banned
Shutdowns, Government Defaults, Defunct Grand Bargains, Debt Ceilings, Citizens United, People like Cruz/Rubio getting elected, zero compromise. Now they send that letter to Iran.


What happened to the Republican Party? They werent always like this.

The black guy became president.
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Shutdowns, Government Defaults, Defunct Grand Bargains, Debt Ceilings, Citizens United, People like Cruz/Rubio getting elected, zero compromise. Now they send that letter to Iran.


What happened to the Republican Party? They werent always like this.

They've been like this for as long as I can remember, and I just turned 27.
 

Diablos

Member
They've been like this for as long as I can remember, and I just turned 27.
They've never been this crazy, unless you wanna dial it back to 1920-something.

You know it's bad when Republicans (who are still voting that way) are too embarrassed to identify as one when being polled and so they pollute the "Independent" stat.
 

Chichikov

Member
Who is poised to replace Bibi and are they really much different than him?
It's complicated, but here goes -
The biggest party in the next election will most likely be the Zionist Union, they are for the most part the old labor party, and are center left - they support two state solution and generally promote a more progressive domestic agenda.
This party was formed when Labor joined (for no fucking good reason by the way) with Tzipi Livni and part of the deal was that if they form a government, the head of labor, Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni will do a 2 year rotation each as prime minister.
Isaac Herzog is just a terrible politician, like, his positions on the issues are okayish, I guess, you can't really expect too much from anyone who has any chance to win an election in Israel, but he's so bad at politics, and he's campaigning make me long for John Kerry.
Tzipi Livni is an awful spineless opportunist, but her opportunism put her on the right side of history, at least for now.

With all that being said, I'm really struggling to see how they'll be able to build a sustainable center-left coalition, you can see scenarios where it's mathematically possible, but it will require a whole lot of parties who pull in very different directions, most likely will exclude the real left wing of Israeli politics and might have to form a PM rotation with another party.
And even if they manage to do that it's hard to see how such coalition survives for too long, and it is very unlikely it will be able to do anything too meaningful in regards of the big structural problems Israel is facing.

Sadly, I think the two most likely scenarios are a center right Likud led coalition with Bibi as a PM, or a big unity coalition between the Likud and the Zionist Union (and a few more parties) which I think is going to be even worse for Israel long term.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
They've been like this for as long as I can remember, and I just turned 27.

Almost 27 myself, and my understanding is thus:

Gingrich is basically the father of this current flavor of strong arm/no compromise politics, and abusing procedure to try to get his way anyway he can. Gingrich is also as far back as I can go in personal experience without resorting to history books.

Judicially, starting with the Bush v Gore case, this is about as actively far right as I think the supreme court has been since before FDR.

And I think Joseph McCarthy and Barry Goldwater both could be described like Rubio and Cruz in being crazy conservative republicans, and I'm sure other crazies were around that never made history books, so I'm guessing people like Cruz/Rubio showing up isn't that unique. Though you could say that Reagan made the whole party become Goldwater, and now Cruz/Rubio is going right of that, which would be new.
 

Diablos

Member
It's complicated, but here goes -
The biggest party in the next election will most likely be the Zionist Union, they are for the most part the old labor party, and are center left - they support two state solution and generally promote a more progressive domestic agenda.
This party was formed when Labor joined (for no fucking good reason by the way) with Tzipi Livni and part of the deal was that if they form a government, the head of labor, Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni will do a 2 year rotation each as prime minister.
Isaac Herzog is just a terrible politician, like, his positions on the issues are okayish, I guess, you can't really expect too much from anyone who has any chance to win an election in Israel, but he's so bad at politics, and he's campaigning make me long for John Kerry.
Tzipi Livni is an awful spineless opportunist, but her opportunism put her on the right side of history, at least for now.

With all that being said, I'm really struggling to see how they'll be able to build a sustainable center-left coalition, you can see scenarios where it's mathematically possible, but it will require a whole lot of parties who pull in very different directions, most likely will exclude the real left wing of Israeli politics and might have to form a PM rotation with another party.
And even if they manage to do that it's hard to see how such coalition survives for too long, and it is very unlikely it will be able to do anything too meaningful in regards of the big structural problems Israel is facing.

Sadly, I think the two most likely scenarios are a center right Likud led coalition with Bibi as a PM, or a big unity coalition between the Likud and the Zionist Union (and a few more parties) which I think is going to be even worse for Israel long term.

Ah, yes.

Livni was who I had in mind but I could not remember her name. She seems like the country's best shot even if she is, as you said, a shell. Has to be better than Bibi and I was hoping she'd be next.

Seems like there's no good outcome with Bibi always finding a way to stay in power. smdh Israel.

It will be interesting to see what the future of Israel will look like 10, 15, 20+ years from now.
 

Chichikov

Member
Ah, yes.

Livni was who I had in mind but I could not remember her name. She seems like the country's best shot even if she is, as you said, a shell. Has to be better than Bibi and I was hoping she'd be next.
Herzog is, she weaseled her way into a rotation agreement when she joined forces with labor, though polls showing she and that rotation agreement is actually hurting the zionist union in the poll.
Again, Herzog is TERRIBLE at politics.

Seems like there's no good outcome with Bibi always finding a way to stay in power. smdh Israel.

It will be interesting to see what the future of Israel will look like 10, 15, 20+ years from now.
Bad, worse, even worse, respectively.
And while getting that corrupt asshole and his disgusting wife kicked out of office would be an improvement, even a dream scenario of a left center government is unlikely to able to do the things needed to resolve the Israeli Palestinian clusterfuck.
The majority of the public in Israel is right wing leaning, Bibi is fucking terrible, people and politicians fucking hates him, this created a chance (not a big one, but a chance nonetheless) to get his useless ass kicked out of office, but I really don't see how it make it politically possible to evacuate settlements in the west bank any time soon.
 
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