Link
The Autumn Wind
See above.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
- Status
RustyNails
Member
But GOP hasn't won PA/MI/WI since Bush Sr and MN since at least not in my lifetime. I don't know what they are thinking. 8th time's the charm? I think what happens is these blue states elect a silly republican US senator or congressman during the midterms, which makes the local consultants salivate about swinging the state for real this time. They tell the rnc. Maybe also throw in stats about young people leaving this state for Texas. The national party sends money their way. They splurge the money and chase the wild goose. It repeats every four years.
RustyNails
Member
I think this confirms that Grover Norquist is a troll and playing the long con. One bad month and it's evidence that Obama's high taxes are ruining the economy. How else would he explain the 200k/month streak for the past several months?
benjipwns
Banned
It's because openly giving up on a state as McCain in Michigan did harms the state party. Less volunteers, less donations, depressed turnout, etc.
And perhaps more importantly, it can force the Democrats into shifting resources into those states. If for example Scott Walker is polling behind Hillary around 48-44 in Pennsylvania for the entire month of September, you can be sure the Democrats are moving lots of money into that state, even if that could be simple noise or temporary and the result is likely to wind up 58-42.
This is what the W. Bush campaign did to John Kerry's less well run campaign. It would dump money into states and Bush/Cheney/popular locals would do a bunch of stuff just for media really who would immediately start talking about "is Michigan in play? is New Jersey in play?" because they can't wank without horserace shit, and the Kerry campaign would rush into the state, even though they had an above likely chance at taking it. And visiting the states can help with fundraising if they aren't major stops, like you hit some spots in Illinois on the way from Ohio/Indiana to Iowa.
I agree with you on the stock market, but a lot of the QE money is just sitting in the banks it didn't really enter circulation. I don't know the current state but at one point it was like 80% of it staying in the banks by Fed orders too.
The student loan burst is going to be gross. A lot of the financial conditions that are setup to go tits up over the next few years makes me wonder why anyone sane wants to be President 2017 and forward.
I think you mean 1972? (Which I still think happened because McGovern essentially rigged the process for himself.)
And coincidentally, the Republicans nominated a wildly far right candidate who got vaporized like Daisy and then won five of the next six elections. Two of them by a guy trying to ape as much of Goldwater's positions as possible but being a friendly guy instead a total public asshole.
Serious question, is the DFL a distinct entity at this point?
I always assumed it's just a weird name quirk inherited from the past, and that today it's really not substantially different that you run of the mill state democratic party.
I do however know next to nothing about Minnesota politics and I assumed all of this based on nothing.
Aaron Strife
Banned
No there isn't really a difference. The FL stands for the Farmer-Labor Party which it merged with some decades ago.
The Republican Party also used to be called the Independent Republicans, but dropped the first part after the 94 wave.
What do you guys think will happen when it does crash or whatever?
Can you predict how it will affect me as a student with federal loans?
Will it utterly screw everything up like the housing bubble or whatever in 2009 did?
(That is what happened right, and not just what everyone attributes the cause of the 2009 crash to? Sorry, I try to stay informed as far as current events and politics goes but I'm pretty ignorant of the minute inner machinations of the economy
)PhoenixDark
Banned
I think republicans will do slightly better with that demographic, as they did in 2012 (compared to 2008). The jobs market is horrible for young people and many are disillusioned with Obama. I could see Rubio doing better than Romney with them.
The counter argument would be that Hillary could greatly increase turnout amongst young female voters, thus increasing her margin amongst young voters.
Please do!
Her campaign was comedy gold.
I remember listening to right-wing talk radio on election night 2010 and some guy (whose show is actually from Nevada if I recall) was making the worst plea ever for people to vote for her.
"Hey, go bother your neighbor washing their car, walking their dog, whatever... and tell them to support Sharon Angle so we can vote out WHORE HOUSE HARRY REID."
He said WHORE HOUSE HARRY REID like every 10 seconds, as though it would make a difference or become an overnight meme. Such a blithering idiot. It sure was funny though!
I have to say, whorehouse Harry is the greatest political nickname in since Martin Van Buren's "The Careful Dutchman".
Aaron Strife
Banned
I don't think a Hillary presidency would be that much different than a third Obama term. She's surrounding herself with Obama's people, they're not that much different on the issues (and in some cases Hillary is to Obama's left), she'll likely have to deal with some level of GOP control in Congress, etc
Wait, whorehouse Harry is a known nickname for him?
Link
The Autumn Wind
Just like all of these are known nicknames for Barack Obama:
The Affirmative Action President
Narcissist-in-chief
The Food Stamp President
Teleprompter-in-chief
TOTUS (Teleprompter of the United States)
No Drama Obama
Chicago Jesus
Maobama
President Thin Skin
The Imperial President
Liar-n-Chief
President Mom Jeans
President Stompy Feet
Coriolanus
Banned
Chicago Jesus is legit good.
Also Chuy gon git reamed.
Also Chuy gon git reamed.
Poodlestrike
Banned
I was gonna stick "B-Rock 'The Islamic Shock' Hussein Super-Allah Obama" in there, but I forgot about Conservapedia's ongoing war with the rest of the internet.
Best nickname stays best.
Of course he's a troll. There's no way he believes the bullshit he spews, especially after seeing his predictions be completely wrong over the past 20 years. Dude's always been a grifter, not a true believer.
In other news, Obama just got a major endorsement on the Iran deal by another one of the most hated socialists on the Right:
http://news.yahoo.com/pope-cheers-iran-nuclear-deal-step-more-secure-105513422.html
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yellowtail
Member
I hope Bibi is pleased with the results of his political interference:
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/n...ll-just-54-of-americans-see-israel-as-an-ally
Poodlestrike
Banned
Yellowtail
Member
Because they're responsible for foisting people like Ted Cruz and Justin Bieber on everyone.
Rhomega Beta
Member
Well that's not really a nickname and more of a one-off joke.
One-off? That joke will always be funny! He's captivatingly Kenyan!
I like Chicago Jesus.
Music to my fucking ears. It's about time and at this rate we should be <50% in a few years.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
What do you guys think will happen when it does crash or whatever?
Can you predict how it will affect me as a student with federal loans?
Will it utterly screw everything up like the housing bubble or whatever in 2009 did?
(That is what happened right, and not just what everyone attributes the cause of the 2009 crash to? Sorry, I try to stay informed as far as current events and politics goes but I'm pretty ignorant of the minute inner machinations of the economy
It's really hard to say. It's not like with the dot com bubble or housing bubble where people can sell off their degrees. The downward spiral would probably be lead by the job market where graduates with student loans can't find jobs to keep up with their payment, leading to default, leading to lower demand, leading to fewer jobs, leading to more default.
It could be extra bad if banks instead kept lowering the monthly payments to encourage students to get a job at any price, since banks don't have much collateral to take in a default, leading to a collapse in wages since there's encouragement to get anything.
It might be slower and less intense than the great recession, but it still won't be great.
Coriolanus
Banned
Wouldn't forgiving all the government-backed student debt while also taking the chance to restructure it towards "free" education help overcome the brunt of the damage?
Obviously without considering that such things would have a very hard time going through a republican congress, if it needed to.
---
Wait, what? In 2005 you reformed bankrupcy to make it so that private student loans couldn't be discharged?
Ah, the joys of a republican congress.
Obviously without considering that such things would have a very hard time going through a republican congress, if it needed to.
---
Wait, what? In 2005 you reformed bankrupcy to make it so that private student loans couldn't be discharged?
Ah, the joys of a republican congress.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Much of this debt was taken during those years.
Yellowtail
Member
PhoenixDark
Banned
some surprisingly meh production values in that video, compared to his dad's 2008 campaign
Rand Paul is probably my favorite elected republican alongside Justin Amash. Can't fux with his economic views but many of his foreign policy views mirror mine - or did before he started running for president - and of course I like his civil liberty stances.
Rand Paul is probably my favorite elected republican alongside Justin Amash. Can't fux with his economic views but many of his foreign policy views mirror mine - or did before he started running for president - and of course I like his civil liberty stances.
Yeah but are job prospects worse now than they were in the last few years for young people? If you don't think so it leaves me wondering how defaults are going to get worse in the future.
I find it depressing that the Indiana pizza place got almost a million dollars for saying they won't serve a gay wedding and yet the bakery the the former televangelist tried to make an "example" of has only amassed $10000... I guess the left doesn't like giving out money as much as the right does.
How ironic.
How ironic.
PhoenixDark
Banned
That bakery didn't go out of business though, right? Completely different situations. Personally I think what happened to the pizzeria was completely out of bounds and stupid. Boycott them, demonstrate them, etc. Jamming their phones and making it impossible for them to provide services was an unacceptable move in my eyes.
Sure you can. His economic views are silly and dangerous. Tying our currency to a commodity (gold and/or silver) gains us nothing* and has a pretty huge potential for disaster.
I'm not saying we don't have underlying economic issues that need addressing. I'm just saying Paul (elder or younger) don't have the answer.
* Except an unavoidable recession.
PhoenixDark
Banned
When I say "can't fux with x" I mean "I can't do that." Not "this argument is so good it can't be argued against." Libertarian economics is fantasy shit. I love fantasy literature but I can't fux with fantasy economics.
who are you
He started troll mode early for 2016.
Aaron Strife
Banned
There's a burning building and inside is Rand Paul and Rick Snyder, and you can only save one, who do you pick
Hobbestetrician
Member
Is the fire bad or just "bad" bad?
Did the bakery get anywhere near the media exposure? I've only seen some local newspaper articles about it online.
jamesinclair
Banned
I wonder what percentage see Israel as an enemy.
Hopefully the democrats are paying attention.
Run on a "zero money to Israel" platform and I might even vote for you
benjipwns
Banned
Justin Amash is a great Congressman, views aside, simply because he tries to explain his every vote on his Facebook page and interact with constituents to try and balance their views and interests with his admittingly out of the mainstream ones. His votes against corporate welfare, spying, foreign policy tropes, etc. are part of why the Michigan state GOP spent so much money trying to primary him for a pro-business pro-intervention-all-the-time candidate and his interactions are party of why his constituents shot that all down and re-elected him.
If we had played my game from a few pages ago, I have to imagine many would come around to PD's view that considering most of his social and foreign policy views Rand Paul is a decent and maybe the best GOP politician/candidate because it's not like the rest don't share the bulk of his economic views.
Also to note, Rand doesn't position-wise share his father's love for competing currencies. He pushed for a commission on the gold standard so that government agencies would evaluate the potential outcomes of such a switch. In part because it's all theory and this would get more data, and I assume it was a sop to his dad. He said he'd wait for judgment of the hypothetical commission. (btw, I don't believe him like on many of his sudden social conservative shifts.)
The government won't forgive those loans because they need the money. And the more likely outcome is that they'll take over the private loans, which they've already partly done by adjusting the rules in such a way that many loans are hybrid backed.
The problem as potatoman notes is that there's nothing to repossess and sell off later to gain back some of the losses like in the housing market.
One way the government could do this is by taking on all the existing loans including private ones, refuse to issue future loans and instead making college "tuition free" then making up the difference with taxes. This will shit the bed eventually but will kick the can down the road and have short term political benefits.
The longer term outcome in the private market is that they won't be issuing loans except for probably private universities (which are generally better bets to be paid back) after the government cleans up their current books for them.
One other thing to note, Obama's push for community colleges while being one of his best ideas from a practical point of view, is that it'll slow student loan growth.
If we had played my game from a few pages ago, I have to imagine many would come around to PD's view that considering most of his social and foreign policy views Rand Paul is a decent and maybe the best GOP politician/candidate because it's not like the rest don't share the bulk of his economic views.
Also to note, Rand doesn't position-wise share his father's love for competing currencies. He pushed for a commission on the gold standard so that government agencies would evaluate the potential outcomes of such a switch. In part because it's all theory and this would get more data, and I assume it was a sop to his dad. He said he'd wait for judgment of the hypothetical commission. (btw, I don't believe him like on many of his sudden social conservative shifts.)
It had already been done for public student loans. It's because (short version) a bunch of (mainly) medical/law students were taking the loans, then filing for bankruptcy (which they technically were) to discharge the loans.
The government won't forgive those loans because they need the money. And the more likely outcome is that they'll take over the private loans, which they've already partly done by adjusting the rules in such a way that many loans are hybrid backed.
The problem as potatoman notes is that there's nothing to repossess and sell off later to gain back some of the losses like in the housing market.
One way the government could do this is by taking on all the existing loans including private ones, refuse to issue future loans and instead making college "tuition free" then making up the difference with taxes. This will shit the bed eventually but will kick the can down the road and have short term political benefits.
The longer term outcome in the private market is that they won't be issuing loans except for probably private universities (which are generally better bets to be paid back) after the government cleans up their current books for them.
One other thing to note, Obama's push for community colleges while being one of his best ideas from a practical point of view, is that it'll slow student loan growth.
benjipwns
Banned
Re: Rick Snyder
He faced a conservative revolt almost instantly because they had gained a ton of seats on his coattails, so he had Bryan Calley (a social conservative ticket balancer) help tone down sightly some of the more socially conservative bills in order that Snyder could sign them to later get enough votes to pass his more moderate agenda since there weren't enough Centrist Republicans and Democrats (and really Democrats of any kind in the Senate) in the legislature to do it. Calley nearly faced a convention revolt to kick him off the ticket for this "betrayal" after the right-wing figured it out.
I actually think Snyder may have preferred a one or two seat Democratic majority House or Senate rather than the House or Senate he was given after a year or few months.
Democrats didn't even really attack Snyder hard for the social conservative stuff in 2014 because most everyone in the state knows he personally is more ambivalent on it than supportive. They focused more on economy, Right to Work, education, roads, etc. even though politically it was harder to hit Snyder on considering the state's little economic bump during Snyder's term.
PD can feel free to take issue with any of this.
He faced a conservative revolt almost instantly because they had gained a ton of seats on his coattails, so he had Bryan Calley (a social conservative ticket balancer) help tone down sightly some of the more socially conservative bills in order that Snyder could sign them to later get enough votes to pass his more moderate agenda since there weren't enough Centrist Republicans and Democrats (and really Democrats of any kind in the Senate) in the legislature to do it. Calley nearly faced a convention revolt to kick him off the ticket for this "betrayal" after the right-wing figured it out.
I actually think Snyder may have preferred a one or two seat Democratic majority House or Senate rather than the House or Senate he was given after a year or few months.
Democrats didn't even really attack Snyder hard for the social conservative stuff in 2014 because most everyone in the state knows he personally is more ambivalent on it than supportive. They focused more on economy, Right to Work, education, roads, etc. even though politically it was harder to hit Snyder on considering the state's little economic bump during Snyder's term.
PD can feel free to take issue with any of this.
PhoenixDark
Banned
You're right about Snyder, I don't havemuch to add. Last year the main focus I saw from democrats centered around alleged education cuts. Snyder could have very easily gone full blown right wing idealogue on social issues, like his fellow 2010 governors. It's telling that the panic emails I get from Michigan democrats revolve around what legislators might do, or some crazy bill that's passed but isn't signed by Snyder. He's far from perfect but so far he has shown restraint on social issues.
My problem with Snyder revolves around the revenue sharing schemes that starve Detroit, and senseless tax cuts.
Justin Amash is far from ideal on a variety of issues but like I said, I respect his independence and his fight for civil liberties. If he was a democrat he'd probably have a national profile.
My problem with Snyder revolves around the revenue sharing schemes that starve Detroit, and senseless tax cuts.
Justin Amash is far from ideal on a variety of issues but like I said, I respect his independence and his fight for civil liberties. If he was a democrat he'd probably have a national profile.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked