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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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P

Poodlestrike

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...-but-warning-signs-ahead-bloomberg-poll-shows


-1x-1.jpg
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I don't understand how to read this thing. 16% of respondent's second choice is "no first choice?" Wah?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I need a quote from Mia Love where she says something like "You know, I like Donald Trump" because Trump hates Mormons and a combination of those two things will make a pretty effective attack ad in November...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Honestly, neither do I. The "not sure" is different from "no first choice?" huh?

And then then the 2nd choice lines up with "not sure" from the previous line. What is going on?
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The people who said "not sure" aren't asked whom their second choice is because the question is then nonsensical with two candidates and no first choice.
 
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
I would assume that "not sure" refers to people who are flat out not sure, and that "no first choice" in the second column refers to people that actively do not want to vote for either candidate.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
He still might win the nomination because enough Democrats will vote for him though. That's the scary part. Or he could go third party and leech off a good chunk of the Dem vote.

His proposals are crazy.

Also not sure if Gruco's remark about Trump only getting a small handful of states was legit but any Bernie voter who believes that is so incredibly wrong.
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Sanders won't go third party. He knows exactly what would happen
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
If Hillary is only getting 72% of Democrats even without Bernie, that's pretty bad news. Her favorables are bad enough with non-Dems, the idea that she might even be slipping with Dems is disheartening. Suggests that a GOP that gets their shit together might have a legit shot.
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Not really, no. Bernie's only at 67%!

Basically, all this is indicating is that 15% are at "no choice yet" and without Bernie would pick her obviously or not bother to show up cuz she's unopposed and some % won't switch from Bernie to her.

Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
I would assume that "not sure" refers to people who are flat out not sure, and that "no first choice" in the second column refers to people that actively do not want to vote for either candidate.
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I understand it now.

No first choice means means no second choice too, obviously.

The left side adds to 100%. The 28% means you picked either Hillary or Bernie and have no 2nd choice. This was the part that confused me. I thought that the way the graphic was set up that if you said "no first choice," then 28% also said "no 2nd choice" which made no sense at all.

Basically, it's saying 28% of people who had a 1st choice has no 2nd choice.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Within GOP, Catholics are overrepresented in winner-take-all & take-most states. Could be building block for Rubio.
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Nate, I know you hate Trump, but is Rubio really going to go after a discussion where the Pope said that you weren't a Christian if you focused on building walls? Rubio constantly talks about the border wall now. It would be a horrible trap to walk into.

Everything Sanders proposing polls above 50 percent. What elites are saying is, "The agenda Americans want is not happening, we oppose it"
Click to expand...

The Intercept has fascinating people writing for it.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Coriolanus said:
Can we please let that big fat mess of a meme die already?
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Something's going to die. If it's not the shitty meme, it's everyone who has to suffer the indignity of reading it over and over again. Because we'll all kill ourselves. Because the meme is stupid.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
There needs to be some clear research showing the effect of Republican attacks on Sanders and Hillary released publicly soon. Especially if somehow Hillary loses Nevada.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Suikoguy said:
There needs to be some clear research showing the effect of Republican attacks on Sanders and Hillary released publicly soon. Especially if somehow Hillary loses Nevada.
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Yknow, as much as i might enjoy this race, i do declare that i'd have to reconsider if the data there backed all the FUD.
 
T

Teggy

Member
That NBC poll is looking even stupider given the polls out today. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in their offices today.

OK, real talk here, I am officially sick of the presidential race. I wore this shirt (well, a dark blue variant) to the doctor's office today:

th_banana.jpeg


Two separate doctors asked me if it was some political thing. It's a freaking Banana Republic t-shirt.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Hillary and Bernie are pretty beloved by South Carolina Democrats:

CbhvrIJWAAAEmsi.png


Note that everyone remaining in the Republican primary (other than Rubio and Cruz) is basically 50/50 on people hating them vs. liking them.

Also:

Cbhunf0W4AE3z_S.png
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
The NBC poll isn't stupid. A good pollster needs to have a bad poll randomly, otherwise they'd be doing something wrong. It's how the math works.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Veritigo_X said:
Coriolanus is a mess. Coriolanus is a waste. Coriolanus is a big fat mess.



This right wing publications must love all the new traffic they're getting from people on the left.
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Makes me think of how the European far left and far right both seem to adore Putin. American far left and American far right both despise Hillary Clinton.

(Also the American regular right, but that's neither here nor there).
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Basileus777 said:
It just seems to be a clear outlier. Which all pollsters have even if they don't always release them.
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I have no problem calling it an outlier. An outlier is a good thing! It means they're doing something right.

And I trust a pollster willing to release what they perceive as an outlier more than one that doesn't.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Poodlestrike said:
Makes me think of how the European far left and far right both seem to adore Putin. American far left and American far right both despise Hillary Clinton.
Click to expand...

To be fair, American far left and American far right also adore Putin.

Cruz got fucking bodied by Trump, Dear God (bolded numbers are current favorables):

CbbsJiaUYAAEp0o.png


Democrats are pretty okay with feminists (not overwhelming in favor though) whereas Republicans hate feminists:

CbbGw2NW8AA1f6J.png
 
T

Teggy

Member
Black Mamba said:
The NBC poll isn't stupid. A good pollster needs to have a bad poll randomly, otherwise they'd be doing something wrong. It's how the math works.
Click to expand...

I mean, there's "outlier" and there's "there's no possible way you could have gotten these results unless you ran a bad poll." Based on the discrepancy I'm kind of leaning to the latter.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Teggy said:
I mean, there's "outlier" and there's "there's no possible way you could have gotten these results unless you ran a bad poll." Based on the discrepancy I'm kind of leaning to the latter.
Click to expand...

Uh, no. Pretty sure their results fit just outside 2 Standard Deviations from the mean.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
sillymonkey321 said:
Doesn't every GOP candidate support building a wall though? Which of them wants to pretend otherwise to hit Trump?
Click to expand...

All of them do but Nate Silver was desperately speculating that Trump's feud with the Pope was the opportunity Rubio could use to beat Trump in winner take all states.

Rubio will obviously not pursue that line of attack now.
 
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