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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Gruco said:
Bernie is openly campaigning on increasing payroll taxes by 50%. And this is on the poor! Let alone everything else. It seriously melts my brain that people think he has any chance in the general.
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I could see an argument that he could scrape together a plurality.

The ones who are like "Bernie will win over Republicans!" are seriously deluded. I'm
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I could see an argument that he could scrape together a plurality.

The ones who are like "Bernie will win over Republicans!" are seriously deluded. I'm
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I stand by thinking that Bernie could beat Trump.

Everything we know politically goes out the window in a Trump vs. Bernie match up. I don't think anyone has any clue what happens in that scenario. But yeah he loses to a normal republican pretty easily.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Gruco said:
Nah, Bernie is ahead of Hillary in general match ups. I think that's all we need to know. People like Bernie. There's no need to worry about the effect of negative campaigning. Authenticity. Etc.
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What a strange opinion, bernie is the least safe candidate the democrats can nominate. You need the middle to win the presidency and you wont win it after an avalanche of socialist ads blanket swing states. The bolded appears to me as an incredibly short sighted assessment
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
I stand by thinking that Bernie could beat Trump.

Everything we know politically goes out the window in a Trump vs. Bernie match up. I don't think anyone has any clue what happens in that scenario. But yeah he loses to a normal republican pretty easily.
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I think people are underestimating *how much* Trump is pandering to gain Republican votes and how easy it will be for him to 180 into a general election message. He's already planted the seeds for it and the media has given him a pass for the most part on his flip flops.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Retromelon said:
What a strange opinion, bernie is the least safe candidate the democrats can nominate. You need the middle to win the presidency and you wont win it after an avalanche of socialist ads blanket swing states. The bolded appears to me as an incredibly short sighted assessment
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They were being sarcastic
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm at the point where I would predict Trump has a better than 50% chance to beat Hillary in a general election. The guy is a masterful politician.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
I stand by thinking that Bernie could beat Trump.

Everything we know politically goes out the window in a Trump vs. Bernie match up. I don't think anyone has any clue what happens in that scenario. But yeah he loses to a normal republican pretty easily.
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So the relevant question is, who wins in Trump v. Hillary?* Because if its Hillary, as I tend to believe, then that's the whole electability argument in a nutshell.




* yes, disastermouse, I know
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
pigeon said:
So the relevant question is, who wins in Trump v. Hillary?* Because if its Hillary, as I tend to believe, then that's the whole electability argument in a nutshell.




* yes, disastermouse, I know
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the democrats have already thrown away the election!!!

ps Jeb is a mess.
 
S

Slayven

Member
NeoXChaos said:
CbhKENmUsAAWMMe.jpg
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Major respect lost
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I know Killer Mike isn't part of Bernie's campaign exactly, but it got me thinking. Assuming Hillary is the nominee, do you guys think any of her potential opponents are disciplined enough to not do something alienating and horribly sexist when campaigning against her? I assume Trump and Cruz will get ugly from the start, and it will be something so obvious that Hillary's campaign won't have to address it because the news media and general public will latch onto it without their help.

There were shit tons of racial dog-whistles along the way in 2008 and 2012 that we paid attention to, but I think were ignored by the majority of Americans. I think it'll be different this time around. For one, Trump lacks the subtlety of his predecessors, and two, there are a lot more women out there to offend than there are minorities.
 
A

aTTckr

Member
kirblar said:
His negatives are sky high outside of the GOP.
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20160218205158253.png


He managed to substantially improve his favorables quite a bit since declaring his candidacy. I'm worried that he will be able to do even better in the general election, once he is able to pander directly to the entire electorate. Especially since I believe he would very much copy many of Sanders economic ideas, while keeping some of his right wing populism on immigration.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Macho Madness said:
I know it's Nate on Trump but he has a point: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/700388524835655680
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He's not wrong, but at the same time if Trump really has started moving to the center in preparation for the general it will help him in those states Nate is worried about. So the whole thing could also be a wash or may even not matter in a month's time. We just don't know enough about how Trump will position himself going forward in the primary.

Captain Pants said:
I know Killer Mike isn't part of Bernie's campaign exactly, but it got me thinking. Assuming Hillary is the nominee, do you guys think any of her potential opponents are disciplined enough to not do something alienating and horribly sexist when campaigning against her? I assume Trump and Cruz will get ugly from the start, and it will be something so obvious that Hillary's campaign won't have to address it because the news media and general public will latch onto it without their help.

There were shit tons of racial dog-whistles along the way in 2008 and 2012 that we paid attention to, but I think were ignored by the majority of Americans. I think it'll be different this time around. For one, Trump lacks the subtlety of his predecessors, and two, there are a lot more women out there to offend than there are minorities.
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Outside of Rubio, no one will be able to help themselves.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
aTTckr said:
20160218205158253.png


He managed to substantially improve his favorables quite a bit since declaring his candidacy. I'm worried that he will be able to do even better in the general election, once he is able to pander directly to the entire electorate. Especially since I believe he would very much copy many of Sanders economic ideas, while keeping some of his right wing populism on immigration.
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That movement came entirely from Republicans. Notice it hasn't changed much since he started campaigning in earnest.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
They're not wrong. I want to put more faith in the American people than this, but for all of Bernie's arguments that "I'll raise your taxes, BUT you get free healthcare!" and how that might make sense, only the first part of that sentence will make it into the attack ads. He plays perfectly into every GOP stereotype about tax and spend liberals, and while that might not be a death knell in every state he'll have a hard time selling that message to swing voters in Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Iowa and Virginia.

I'm pretty sure any candidate would be able to win if they were allowed to explain their positions in their own words to every single voter. But once you slap those party labels on its a tough slog. I'm not convinced Bernie will be able to make himself heard through the noise.
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He still might win the nomination because enough Democrats will vote for him though. That's the scary part. Or he could go third party and leech off a good chunk of the Dem vote.

His proposals are crazy.

Also not sure if Gruco's remark about Trump only getting a small handful of states was legit but any Bernie voter who believes that is so incredibly wrong.
 
K

kirblar

Member
aTTckr said:
20160218205158253.png


He managed to substantially improve his favorables quite a bit since declaring his candidacy. I'm worried that he will be able to do even better in the general election, once he is able to pander directly to the entire electorate. Especially since I believe he would very much copy many of Sanders economic ideas, while keeping some of his right wing populism on immigration.
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A quarter of the electorate is now black or latino.

He needs white voter #s at a nearly unachievable level to make up for that.
imrs.php
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A

aTTckr

Member
Aaron Strife said:
That movement came entirely from Republicans. Notice it hasn't changed much since he started campaigning in earnest.
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Sure, but since he was able to improve his standing with Republican voters, why shouldn't it be possible that he could do the same with voters usually more aligned with Democrats while using the same strategy as with Republicans? Sanders poll numbers show that there is a substantial percentage of Democrats who aren't concerned with with facts or what is realistically achievable. I don't see what speaks against Trump picking up a large chunk of Sanders supporters in the GE.
 
J

JesseEwiak

Member
aTTckr said:
Sure, but since he was able to improve his standing with Republican voters, why shouldn't it be possible that he could do the same with voters usually more aligned with Democrats while using the same strategy as with Republicans? Sanders poll numbers show that there is a substantial percentage of Democrats who aren't concerned with with facts or what is realistically achievable. I don't see what speaks against Trump picking up a large chunk of Sanders supporters in the GE.
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There is the racism and sexism - even if Bernie Bros are diet racists and sexists, a very small amount of Sanders supporters will vote for Trump once the Hillary machine reminds people just how horrible Trump has been.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Oh boy.

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/02/17/3750656/confederate-flag-trump/

WALTERBORO, SC — South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) announced Wednesday that she is endorsing Marco Rubio for president, potentially giving the Florida senator a much needed bump in the state ahead of Saturday’s primary.

But Donald Trump supporters in South Carolina’s lowcountry aren’t bothered that the real estate mogul lost the governor and rising GOP star’s endorsement. Voters at Trump rallies on Wednesday told ThinkProgress that Haley lost their support when she made the decision last summer to remove the Confederate flag from the state capitol, where it had flown for 54 years. And they said they will never forgive her.


“That’s history,” said Tammi Lawton, who attended Trump’s rally in Walterboro with four friends. “No matter which way you look at it, that is history. That’s Southern history, and she’s a stupid idiot.”

Ridgeland, South Carolina-resident Dianne Lawson said that she voted for Haley in 2014, but wouldn’t do it again.

“She lost her support in South Carolina this past summer,” she said. “I’d always been a supporter of Nikki Haley, but I don’t believe the package that she’s selling anymore. She knuckled under to political pressure and she went too quick and didn’t care what South Carolina residents thought. It was all about what was going to make her look good.”
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Just not hiding the racism anymore.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...-but-warning-signs-ahead-bloomberg-poll-shows


-1x-1.jpg



white likely Democratic primary voters narrowly prefer Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, and Sanders is the runaway favorite with whites under 45 in the survey, 67 percent to 22 percent
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3-to-1 advantage among African-American voters, according to a Bloomberg Politics poll that shows the Democrats' fourth nominating contest still can be a Clinton firewall to blunt her rival's momentum.
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K

kirblar

Member
Jeb's a perfect example of "its not our policies that's the problem, its the package!" mentality.

Trump, to his credit, is the only guy actually running on a different policy platform. Along with the racism.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
aTTckr said:
Sure, but since he was able to improve his standing with Republican voters, why shouldn't it be possible that he could do the same with voters usually more aligned with Democrats while using the same strategy as with Republicans? Sanders poll numbers show that there is a substantial percentage of Democrats who aren't concerned with with facts or what is realistically achievable. I don't see what speaks against Trump picking up a large chunk of Sanders supporters in the GE.
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The strategy Trump used with Republicans was "be super racist in order to appeal to the strong racist contingent in the Republican primary base."

That strategy won't work on Democrats!

Nor do I think the Etch-a-Sketch will be effective. It wasn't effective for Mitt Romney, after all. Things you said this year are things you said this year, people can pull them up on Youtube and see them for themselves. I think people suggesting that Trump can just run away from everything he's said in the primary have a weird view of how information works. All that stuff is saved forever and it will be coming back to play. You think Univision is just not going to mention it any more?
 
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