PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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Teggy said:
The date range matters because the mean/SD is different if your sample is polls from the past 5 months vs. the past month. Limiting to polls from the past month where the race has matured would make a lot more sense here.
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Of course. But again, his mean is like 37-38 and he got a 26. This isn't something unusual. Random sampling just ended up getting a lot of Cruz people and less Trump people.

It was also a LV screen instead of RV screen, which lowers his averages a bit.

The number is perfectly in line with an outlier poll. I don't understand why you're arguing this. It's not like he ended up with 14% which would obviously be a stupid poll.
 
Friedmantrayal. The establishment must be holding his family.
Black Mamba said:
The NBC poll isn't stupid. A good pollster needs to have a bad poll randomly, otherwise they'd be doing something wrong. It's how the math works.
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A good pollster probably knows how to make a bad poll happen. Virtual tie!

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So, I think Clyburn endorsing next week would probably solidify the existing advantage. Alternatively, she somehow gets Sharpton to do it. The reactions would be glorious.
 
Gruco said:
If Sanders really cared about poor people, he'd stop wasting their money like that.
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Yeah, people throwing their money away. This money could help the DNC win so many down ticket elections, but people blowing it all on a man that doesn't give a shit about the democratic party.
 
Gruco said:
If Sanders really cared about poor people, he'd stop wasting their money like that.
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I though we were all white, male, young and privileged - now it's poor people?

BoboBrazil said:
Yeah, people throwing their money away. This money could help the DNC win so many down ticket elections, but people blowing it all on a man that doesn't give a shit about the democratic party.
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polls_first_lady_hilary_clinton_wincing_in_199_1_4259_281217_answer_1_xlarge.jpeg
 
He has been flushed with cash, but most of the spending I've seen talked about in articles is about advertising. So I'm kind of curious the degree to which he's spending on the elusive "ground game" in these states and beyond, or whether he's more reliant on his army of volunteers.
 
shinra-bansho said:
He has been flushed with cash, but most of the spending I've seen talked about in articles is about advertising. So I'm kind of curious the degree to which he's spending on the elusive "ground game" in these states and beyond, or whether he's more reliant on his army of volunteers.
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Perhaps he's counting on killer Mike to drive turnout?
 
Black Mamba said:
Of course. But again, his mean is like 37-38 and he got a 26. This isn't something unusual. Random sampling just ended up getting a lot of Cruz people and less Trump people.

It was also a LV screen instead of RV screen, which lowers his averages a bit.

The number is perfectly in line with an outlier poll. I don't understand why you're arguing this. It's not like he ended up with 14% which would obviously be a stupid poll.
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I'm arguing it because it doesn't seem out of the question that it's a bad poll. If there is evidence that pollers are throwing out polls like this left and right, I guess that's something else.

BTW, just for giggles, I calculated Cruz's mean on this poll including all polls during this month. His score on this poll is 2.45 standard deviations above the mean for polls since 2/1. Assuming a normal distribution (although granted, I don't know enough about voting science to say you can), that would be a .7% chance of getting this result (or greater).
 
Teggy said:
Do evangelicals even consider Catholics Christians? I believe Coulter has brought that line of attack up before.
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I'll put it this way

My aunt and members of her congregation had no problem telling my mom (often) that our family was going to hell because we're Catholic. Or mocking her for needing an intermediary to "talk to God" whereas she had a "personal connection" to God.
 
BoboBrazil said:
Yeah, people throwing their money away. This money could help the DNC win so many down ticket elections, but people blowing it all on a man that doesn't give a shit about the democratic party.
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Many of us are progressives first, Democrats second (or not at all). This isn't a knock on Sanders that many supporters are going to care about, and it's silly because it ignores that benefits that a drawn-out Democratic primary will offer to the party as a whole.
 
East Lake said:
So after being painted as a delusional berniestan/communist it turns out he's not. Not surprised this thread turns to mocking Bernie supporters though. Might be embarrassing to look inward.
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No, I'll keep mocking a guy projecting 5.3% growth and the highest work force participation rate in U.S. history if Bernie's plans are implemented.
 
East Lake said:
So after being painted as a delusional berniestan/communist it turns out he's not. Not surprised this thread turns to mocking Bernie supporters though. Might be embarrassing to look inward.
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Well thank fuck he's not Hillary's economist. She probably didn't hire his ass in the first place so he asked Sanders Senpai to notice him.
 
East Lake said:
So after being painted as a delusional berniestan/communist it turns out he's not. Not surprised this thread turns to mocking Bernie supporters though. Might be embarrassing to look inward.
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I can't imagine how. He made terrible projections, is ideologically inclined towards Bernie, but still won't vote for him because Bernie is a single issue candidate. How is this supposed to be an embarrassing event for people pre-disposed to mocking Bernie?
 
Gruco said:
I can't imagine how. He made terrible projections, is ideologically inclined towards Bernie, but still won't vote for him because Bernie is a single issue candidate. How is this supposed to be an embarrassing event for people pre-disposed to mocking Bernie?
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Single issue because his main focus is campaign finance reform which effects every other issue?
Lessig was a single issue candidate, not Bernie.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Finance reform doesn't really stop a bakery from refusing to sell a wedding cake to two lesbians.
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It does in the sense that most people dont want that but the issue is used as a wedge by the republicans. If congress better represented us (theres a good article on how it doesnt really represent anyone but the wealthy), this wouldn't be as much of a problem. I'll give you straight raw bigotry isn't really accounted for by finance reform, but it does indirectly via congress simply not representing the american people well.
 
Jay-Hova said:
Single issue because his main focus is campaign finance reform which effects every other issue?
Lessig was a single issue candidate, not Bernie.
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I mean, I don't want to oversell the point. Bernie cares a lot about income inequality! It's a really, really big issue. And that's awesome, really. But he doesn't really have any passion when he talks about anything else. In some cases he's straight up ignorant. He's bad at talking about race, and clueless on foreign policy. On top of that he's not very good at economics and has no real policy chops. But even the people who disagree with that (Freidman) and think THE WORLD of his economic plan can't get behind him because he lacks breadth as a candidate.
 
BoboBrazil said:
Yeah, people throwing their money away. This money could help the DNC win so many down ticket elections, but people blowing it all on a man that doesn't give a shit about the democratic party.
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I mean, people gave that money to the Sanders campaign to use how they see fit. Even if they are pissing it up a rope in SC.
 
A woman on NBC Nightly News just legitimately issued the following statement:

Trump is a good Christian, just like the Pope.


I .... I can't. I just, I fucking cannot even.
 
adam387 said:
A woman on NBC Nightly News just legitimately issued the following statement:

Trump is a good Christian, just like the Pope.


I .... I can't. I just, I fucking cannot even.
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To be fair, Trump will probably cause fewer deaths than the Popes before Pope Francis (fucking assholes not supporting condoms in Africa).

But "we have to go after their families" being a good Christian thing would help me be more focused on being an atheist.
 
Two interesting articles by/about Friedman (i think his healthcare analysis is pretty on point about the Thorpe one, take it all with a grain of salt).

http://dollarsandsense.org/blog/2016/02/friedman-responds-to-thorpe.html

And a bit more info into his 5.3% growth factor and stuff (once again big grain of salt but it doesnt seem hes projecting 5.3% growth for 10 years, really just a one or two year correction but sensationalism wins at the end of the day).

http://fortune.com/2016/02/18/bernie-sanders-economic-growth/
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
It's just one dude from fucking UMass, not part of Bernie's campaign (or even voting for Bernie).
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Their campaign is actively promoting the numbers in fundraising material. Let's dispel with this fiction that he's some no-name guy. The fundraising team knew exactly what it was doing.

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