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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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I think we should do a golden girls made of PoliGAFfers. I want to be Sofia.
(adam is obviously
rose
User 463088
Banned
So, I talk shit about my mom being cray-cray, but I might as well say something nice about her.
In the last week, she's done almost 35 hours of phone banking for Hillary. This is the first time in her life she's ever volunteered or donated to a campaign. She has been killing it. I've tried to talk her into going down to the local office, but she's not comfortable doing that. She's stuck to the scripting too, which...I wasn't sure.
Also, fiance agreed to help drive people to the polls on election day. We took our neighbor already, and next week we're going to take her daughter to vote since she doesn't drive. Every little bit helps!
In the last week, she's done almost 35 hours of phone banking for Hillary. This is the first time in her life she's ever volunteered or donated to a campaign. She has been killing it. I've tried to talk her into going down to the local office, but she's not comfortable doing that. She's stuck to the scripting too, which...I wasn't sure.
Also, fiance agreed to help drive people to the polls on election day. We took our neighbor already, and next week we're going to take her daughter to vote since she doesn't drive. Every little bit helps!
Crude pass:
2000
Presidential: D +.5
House: R+.5
2004
Presidential: R +2.5
House: R+2.5
2008
Presidential: D +7
House: D+11
2012
Presidential: D +4
House: D+1
I mean, the amount of inference here is obviously quite limited. But the house margin relative the the presidential margin in recent history appears to depend on house incumbency, but that advantage is limited to 3-4 points.
If Hillary wins the presidency by 10 points, we are either going to see a completely a very stark change in down ballot voting patterns from recent years. Which I suppose is possible if republicans start getting excited about Johnson or something. Given that Johnson is falling towards pre-2012 levels of support (where he got 1% of the vote), this seems unlikely. How are the Republicans supposed to keep the House at this point?
2000
Presidential: D +.5
House: R+.5
2004
Presidential: R +2.5
House: R+2.5
2008
Presidential: D +7
House: D+11
2012
Presidential: D +4
House: D+1
I mean, the amount of inference here is obviously quite limited. But the house margin relative the the presidential margin in recent history appears to depend on house incumbency, but that advantage is limited to 3-4 points.
If Hillary wins the presidency by 10 points, we are either going to see a completely a very stark change in down ballot voting patterns from recent years. Which I suppose is possible if republicans start getting excited about Johnson or something. Given that Johnson is falling towards pre-2012 levels of support (where he got 1% of the vote), this seems unlikely. How are the Republicans supposed to keep the House at this point?
User 463088
Banned
If you haven't, watch Designing Women. It may not resonate as much if you're not a southern gay, but it's still really, really smartly written. (Until the season when Suzanne leaves, but it rebounds in the last season!) The episode "Killing all the Right People" about HIV/AIDS and LGBT issues in the 80s is fucking perfect, as is "Julia Drives Over the 1st Amendment." There's even an episode that celebrates Bill Clinton being President, because the writers/creator of the show is a huge Democrat!
I'll happily be Rose!
Carpe Carnim
Member
TIL there was a Golden Girls spin-off called "The Golden Palace"
In that case, I want to be Ricardo Montalbon or Cheech Marin
TumblingHippo
Member
If I ever want to become a powerful dictator, I'm hiring Kellyanne. You can claim she's a lot of awful things, but being bad at her job and lacking dedication is not one of them.
I might be giving too much credit.
I might be giving too much credit.
There's a what? A spinoff???
Manmademan
Member
you're better off not knowing about that one.
User 463088
Banned
Pretend you didn't learn this. Trust. It's awful.
Sophia, Blanche and Rose buy a hotel. And it's just terrible.
Some gays have children! And also, fuck off Bill Mitchell.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
You know what would make those numbers better?
D R O P P O T H E O P P O
D R O P P O T H E O P P O
Finale Fireworker
Member
You guys can do whatever you want to do as long as I get to watch it.
...wait.
I will definitely check this out. I have heard somebody talking about this show before, so I have a little context. I may not be a Southern Gay, but good writing can take me anywhere.
They do a Golden Girls drag show every year for Halloween in Salem, MA. I've never seen it because it's so popular and expensive. They do it like it's a whole episode. I did pass the performers though and they were COMPELLING.
banefirelord
Banned
I had a very vivid, unpleasant dream where I went to my polling place on election day and some Trumper jackass was trying to convince an Hispanic woman that the election was actually the nexy day.
While I was arguing with the "observer", a white nationalist militia surrounded the polling station and started shooting. We all had to fight our way out of the building.
Later on the resilts came out and due to depressed turnout from violence, we only took two House seats.
Hope it's not prophetic.
While I was arguing with the "observer", a white nationalist militia surrounded the polling station and started shooting. We all had to fight our way out of the building.
Later on the resilts came out and due to depressed turnout from violence, we only took two House seats.
Hope it's not prophetic.
Carpe Carnim
Member
I feel like The Golden Palace episode titles were quite prophetic in describing the 2016 election:
"Sex, Lies and Tortillas"
"One Angry Stan"
"One Old Lady To Go"
"Marriage on the Rocks, With A Twist"
"Senor Stinky Learns Absolutely Nothing About Life"
Bill Mitchell is going to have the biggest meltdown on election night.
Multiple Fox hosts explaining how Trump is behind in polling but hoping for a comeback.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NSpSXHuy8I
I can imagine them not pushing the voter fraud story if Trump refuses to concede - quite a shift for this channel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NSpSXHuy8I
I can imagine them not pushing the voter fraud story if Trump refuses to concede - quite a shift for this channel.
User 463088
Banned
The Night the Lights Went Out in Georgia
Killing all the Right People
Also, since this is PoliGaf, here is Julia in a debate when she was running for City Council
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnMn-ObT0r8
SO GOOD
Also, Julia Sugarbaker calls Donald Trump
nature boy
Member
3 POINTS FOLKS
StopMakingSense
Member
If Trump truly doesn't concede after a 10 point plus loss, every GOP official is going to use that opportunity to finally drop a hot steaming load on that loser.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Yeah, another thumbs-up for Designing Women. They went a little too campy with their obviously gay, black assistant, but such were the times in the early 90s.
Used to watch reruns during Summer Break. Memories...
Manmademan
Member
3 POINTS FOLKS
was this the texas poll we were waiting on?
I would say they're going after it in 2016.
Flipping it this year means the GOP has to dump a ton of resources into texas just to keep it for 2020 (as opposed to losing it by narrow margins and it still being assumed "safe") leaving the rest of the map underfunded and trending D by default. Texas being in play at all is a horrible scenario for republicans.
SpeedySwaf
Member
Yeah, I'm actually trying to not get my hopes up for the house. I still have this pessimistic feeling that things are going to get really close in the end, mainly because Hopium is infamous for its violent withdraws.
Really hoping that if their really are other tapes, they at least further confirm the stories of at least one of the accusers. Would be really fitting in light of his threats to sue them.
If the loss is as massive as it's looking now (which, again, I'm bullish on), the conservative machine is going to do everything in its power to place the blame solely on Trump. Otherwise he's just going to come back and possibly screw their chances again.
metalslimer
Member
Come on Trump keep up the rigged talk. Make it the central theme!!
cartoon_soldier
Member
NEVADA!
For real, Barack and Murphy need to do a rally.
Carpe Carnim
Member
We're gonna drag Murphy's silly ass across the goal line. That slime-trail Rubio must never even sniff the title of Senior Senator of the Great State of Floriduh.
Yes but they are about the only online pollster that's worth a damn (maybe Survey Monkey)
User 463088
Banned
YouGov's last poll of Florida was +2, which when accounting for house effect adjusted to +5. That is not too close for comfort. YouGov has consistently been Hillary's worst pollster because of their methods. (Online, English only, etc).
You don't know that. Obama wouldn't be going to bat for him this late in the game if he didn't think he had a chance.
I totally understand Dems bailing on Strickland but I think they should have given Murphy more time.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I know Hillary has been steadily winning Florida polling, so I'm not too worried about it. I think they'll be fine.
Carpe Carnim
Member
You shut your mouf! Murphy may be a non-descript white guy in a suit, but he's running against a first-term waffling slime-ball who is disliked by a half of his own party, with no legislation to his name
RustyNails
Member
All past 5 or so polls had Hillary +4. There is bound to be Hillary +2 or +3 once a while.
nature boy
Member
Yes, CBS/YouGov poll
Manmademan
Member
high voter turnout will absolutely win murphy florida, if likely voter polls are showing a dead heat.
Heavy democratic ground game, plus the massive influx of citizens from puerto rico since 2012 mean democratic support is undercounted there in polling, possibly more than any other state.
edit: oh wait, Yougov is english only?? EVEN BETTER
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