cartoon_soldier
Member
Murphy isn't winning the Latino vote with the same margin as Clinton. So it will be very difficult for him.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
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Murphy isn't winning the Latino vote with the same margin as Clinton. So it will be very difficult for him.
User 463088
Banned
I think Texas was winnable this year, honestly. The thing was, there just wasn't the ground work put in there to actually carry it. There's not enough time, really. I know there are a few people on the ground, but I just don't think it's going to be enough.
1. so why did DCCC cancel all their ads? 2. Priorities have yet to go and 3. Cesare has informed us he is toast.
4. Murphy isnt winning the Hispanic vote large enough like Hillary.
It's a tougher race than MO or NC, but it's hardly Strickland tier. If Clinton wins Florida bigly, she can still drag him across the finish line. Though, I do agree with the DSCC's and Clinton campaign's resource allocation.
RCP has Murphy -3.8. Franken was -2.8 and won, and that was in a state that the presidential campaign wasn't active in.
Mighty Chin
Banned
Chuck Todd was pretty good with Kellyanne.
Fenderputty
Banned
Hillary finds out Cubs are going to the world series
Can I stop mail and rescind my absentee ballot? She may as well have lost LA and with it California. FUCK
Basileus777
Member
It'll be less competitive in 4 years when the Republican candidate isn't down double digits nationally. 2024 maybe. Texas is expensive, there will be a lot of reluctance to go in there.
Dude needs to stop getting attention. He's just saying all sorts of bullshit to cover his ass.
User 463088
Banned
Dems have a 13,500 raw vote advantage in Nevada over 2012.
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4531 (2016)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2501 (2012)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4531 (2016)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2501 (2012)
Manmademan
Member
The latino vote isn't monolithic.
i have no doubt that florida cubans are more positively predisposed to rubio than murphy is.
Puerto ricans though? absolutely not. They vote along the same lines as most other latinos do nationally, with no particular love for Rubio.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/in-florida-puerto-ricans-could-help-sway-white-house-race/
Since 2012 there's been a million more latinos moving to Florida. mostly from puerto rico. Few to none of these voters will show up in polling, since by definition they aren't likely voters (never having voted before) and many either speak english as a second language or not at all.
I'm not confident that polling in florida accurately represents latino support because of this- and "ground game" goes pretty far in reaching these voters and turning them out. The DNC is certainly putting the work in to drive out the vote for hillary, running quite a bit in spanish language tv and radio.
It doesn't matter if they're promoting murphy specifically or not, he'll benefit.
1.) promoting murphy specifically isn't a good use of funds. You want to drive unlikely voters to the polls, they're not going to get there to vote for a senate candidate. This is all about Trump, Hillary, and the presidential race- and you count on those voters not to ticket split. The democratic senatorial committee is better off spending their money in other races where raising the profile of a stronger senate candidate will make a difference, like NC or PA.
2.) see the above re: latino polling. I have no confidence that traditional polling especially if its english only is capturing any significant portion of the PR vote there.
banefirelord
Banned
So apart from getting media attention and riling up his base, what exactly would Trump throwing a hissy fit and suing over a "rigged" election actually accomplish for him? For that matter, how could him throwing a hissy fit delegitimize Hillary's victory when the person handing over the reins is Obama and the only people listening to Trump are whackjobs at this point?
TestOfTide
Banned
So just want to make sure I understand the Senate potential pick-up list:
Likely:
- Indiana
- Illinois
- Wisconsin
- Pennsylvania
Possible:
- Missouri
- North Carolina
- Florida
- New Hampshire
- Arizona (if only because McCain has pissed off the deplorables)
Wishful thinking:
- Ohio
- Iowa
- Georgia
Carpe Carnim
Member
Ads: Expensive markets and saturation. This is all on the GOTV apparatus now, but Rubio has to rely on the GOP machine which is getting exactly zero help or coattails from their POTUS candidate.
Rubio's baked-in Miami-Dade Cuban machine has been losing steam for 2 years. Plus he has to climb over the Trump-Cuban affair and increasing good-will from third-gen Cubans from normalizing relations with the island.
Add to that the tough to poll nature of Floridian Latinxs, and you've got an upset waiting to happen.
nature boy
Member
I would send a surrogate to spice things up, TBH.
metalslimer
Member
McCain isn't losing.
Also Tim Kaine came to Houston about a month ago. I would love to see Michelle come here
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Getting a heck of a lot of viewers for his media network.
Carpe Carnim
Member
As a primer for anyone who doesn't understand the fractious nature of Florida, and why we've been a swing-state for years, may I give you a view from a partisan, but clear-eyed operative in the Sunshine State
http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/9/19/florida-is-gonna-florida-2016-version.html
http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/9/19/florida-is-gonna-florida-2016-version.html
Freerepublic
TestOfTide
Banned
McCain will probably win, but we have seen how the deplorables are reacting to anyone that takes back or even seems to take back their endorsements of Trump.
Basically, the slim chance of Kirkpatrick winning relies on record Hispanic turnout, low turnout of moderate republicans, AND enough deplorables refusing to vote for McCain.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Democrats didn't hammer Rubio hard enough on his Trump endorsement, plus Murphy is a flawed candidate to put it lightly. He's going to win enough of the Hispanic vote to beat Murphy.
Some Trump astroturfer was saying on Reputable Sources that they're doing better in NC and FL early voting than last time. Is that true relative to Democrats or just absolutely (like they have more absentee ballots but are losing by more)? I thought they were getting killed in FL absentee voting and NC too.
I think it's a waste. Just hammer Arizona. Send Barack out there and Biden. Michelle can go again too. They can really win AZ. Texas is a pipedream.
I think it's a waste. Just hammer Arizona. Send Barack out there and Biden. Michelle can go again too. They can really win AZ. Texas is a pipedream.
newshinycd
Member
This thread so far this morning:
RustyNails
Member
When does early voting in Florida begin. Do we have any results?
I would say....
Likely D:
- Illinois
- Wisconsin
These have never been seriously contested.
Lean D:
- Pennsylvania
- Indiana
- New Hampshire
- Nevada (not a pick up)
I would almost be tempted to call these safe. Bayh has had good numbers, and PA, NH and NV just have too heavy headwinds for the R candidate to navigate.
Toss up:
- Missouri
- North Carolina
NC has a strong dem operation and MO has an amazing candidate. I think these can both be done, but I wouldn't put money on it.
Lean R:
- Florida
LOL no:
- Arizona
- Ohio
- Iowa
- Georgia
A Serious Man
Member
This plus the growing Latino population will definitely be making Republicans sweat.
2012 crushed him. He's not making that mistake again.
This is one of those moments where I have to pray fervently that someone makes a thread over at FreeRepublic.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Karl Rove has been saying the odds aren't good for trump for a really long time.
Outdoor Miner
Member
Looks like Karl learned his lesson from 2012.
whyamihere
Banned
I'm so proud. It's fun to do something and then see the results.
I believe Dems had a 15 point edge in 2012 first day of early voting but don't quote me on that.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Absentee has been going on for almost two weeks, early in-person starts tomorrow through Nov. 6
https://countyballotfiles.elections...eports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Dems up almost 20K in requests, and only down 20K in returned ballots is huge. That's better than 2012 when Obama won by only 0.9%
exactly.
Manmademan are you assuming that the Hispanic vote Rubio is getting is going to be lower due to new Hispanics voters not answering polls and/or suppressed Cuban turnout?
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Damn. Was hoping to watch his antics on election night.
You did this! Clinton will easily win Nevada by a double digit margin. Maybe not 2008 levels though because the housing and economic collapse pushed a lot of people to Obama, but it'll be decisive.
metalslimer
Member
I'm going to be glued to CNN and I hope they have Lewandowski, Lord, Kayleigh, and Scottie all in a room when the results are announced. Oh yeah and I agree Texas is a lost cause, I just want to see someone outside of Trump (which was horrific).
Tomorrow! +2 for Hillary and Murphy incoming from my wife and I. So fucking excited, let's go blue 3 times in a row! It'll be amazing because of all the disgusting anti Hillary bumper stickers I see on trucks here in Orlando.
My boss, an executive, is a loud mouthed hardcore alt righter from England (I don't fucking get it either) who loves Trump but luckily she's only a green card holder and can't vote. Her bitter tears on Wednesday will be amazing in our daily morning meeting. She has no idea on my political preferences though since I never discuss politics with her since that would be a train wreck.
RustyNails
Member
I think they now understand they miscalculated. There is a clear schism between Hillary Campaign 2016 and the DSCC. Obama campaigning hard in Florida and grilling Rubes is probably not what DSCC expected. DSCC is just looking at the numbers game, all they need is 50. So in their view. its wise to ditch an expensive Murphy in favor of a cheap Bayh. The presidential campaign however sees Rubio as a clear threat.
newshinycd
Member
Isakson and Barksdale could end up in a runoff. In which case Isakson will probably win, but there is a chance.
Dems would need a hell of a GOTV, though.
As a Georgian I'm not holding my breath, for this race. Our state is plagued by the likes of Erick Erickson and Herman Cain.
I still think Georgia goes blue in the Presidential race by 1-2%. It really depends on the turnout of the metro Atlanta counties. I've been a big believer that if Cobb and Gwinnett go blue, so does the state. Here in Cobb, early voting is up 128% over the same time period in 2012.
Dems would need a hell of a GOTV, though.
As a Georgian I'm not holding my breath, for this race. Our state is plagued by the likes of Erick Erickson and Herman Cain.
I still think Georgia goes blue in the Presidential race by 1-2%. It really depends on the turnout of the metro Atlanta counties. I've been a big believer that if Cobb and Gwinnett go blue, so does the state. Here in Cobb, early voting is up 128% over the same time period in 2012.
I want to see them panic if Texas is too close to call at closing. It will be delicious
Carpe Carnim
Member
Holla! Way to go fellow Floridian. Let's get this shit done. Next job is to make sure we remove a Republican from the Governor's office, but that's a discussion for another day
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The Young Turks are amazing.
https://twitter.com/JordanChariton/status/790210279699251200
You have to have a combination of stupidity and dishonesty that is off the charts to quote that one part, it's honestly amazing.
https://twitter.com/JordanChariton/status/790210279699251200
You have to have a combination of stupidity and dishonesty that is off the charts to quote that one part, it's honestly amazing.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I could see that. Rubio's one of the few people I'd be a little afraid of for 2020. Killing his career right here and now brings the 2016 group of republicans that might actually have beaten Hillary down to Kasich, who's never winning the primary.
Clinton machine is Obama on steroids! Love it.
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