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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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U

User 463088

Banned
Nazgul_Hunter said:
CvdE-X7XgAA0eFs

.
Click to expand...
Hnnnnggg
 
S

Souldriver

Member
Oh man I hope this comes through on election day, and that things don't tighten gain so that it's just a boring 4 point margin. Trump has to get wrecked, and I want us to pick up at least one unlikely state.

I want to say on election day "wait, state X went to Hillary? Yas this is over!"
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 1m1 minute ago
This may be an election where turnout goes down but that actually ends up benefiting Democrats
Click to expand...

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
ABC poll finds declining R interest in voting. If that persists it represents the doomsday scenario for R down-ballot candidates
Click to expand...

.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
That Jeb Bush ad predicting an "unprecedented victory not since Reagan 1984" is looking more and more prophetic.

Honestly, I keep waiting for the polls to start tightening, but damn if they aren't staying stubbornly wide for us. Damn.

I hope Trump and the GOP get electorally buried so that they finally get the damn message: NEVER AGAIN.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
NeoXChaos said:
.
Click to expand...

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
ABC poll finds declining R interest in voting. If that persists it represents the doomsday scenario for R down-ballot candidates
Click to expand...

Oh please, this is 100% what is needed here. PLEASE.

HylianTom said:
That Jeb Bush ad predicting an "unprecedented victory not since Reagan 1984" is looking more and more prophetic.
Click to expand...

!
 
C

CCS

Banned
Nazgul_Hunter said:
CvdE-X7XgAA0eFs

.
Click to expand...

Good.

I want every single one of those fuckers to go down with the ship that they hitched themselves to, ignoring every ounce of hated that it was carrying out of their own desperate desire for power.

Rubio, Ryan, Burr, Toomey, Ayotte, Heck, every single last one of them. Carry the weight of your sins until it breaks your fucking backs.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
kellyanne is on with jake and is blaming the media for publishing the poll results showing donald's path to 270 is narrowing.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
sazzy said:
kellyanne is on with jake and is blaming the media for publishing the poll results showing donald's path to 270 is narrowing.
Click to expand...

I love how when the media was basically giving Trump millions and millions of dollars in free publicity during the primaries, the media was fine. Now all of a sudden, they're "terrible."
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
.
Click to expand...

Trump having zero ground game is going to make it even worse. GOP voters who are on the fence aren't being called or contacted in any way by the campaign. Their only exposure to Trump is through his mental breakdowns on Twitter, in debates, etc. He's telegraphing negativity to many republican voters at a time when they need to be riled up and excited by a nominee "fighting until the end."

"Why vote if it's rigged?"
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
They just played the Kander ad on ABC. SO GOOD.

If GOP turnout is down all over the place, I could see Missouri happening. Seeing Blunt go down in flames would be remarkable.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Nazgul_Hunter said:
CvdE-X7XgAA0eFs

.
Click to expand...

Again, and it has to be reiterated-

This is "likely voters." Imagine where "unlikely" voters would take these numbers? We've seen the turnout so far, they're showing up, and showing up in big numbers.

edit: and yeah, if this is anywhere close to real the house is done. an 8 point national lead would send it into D territory. 12+ points is MORE than enough.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
sazzy said:
niiiice

Can anyone explain how they decide on this (from the poll website)

Does that mean that they called up 800+ people and they just happened to be split along on those lines, or that they specifically targeted this split?
Click to expand...

Most pollsters build a larger universe of the electorate to get an idea who is a likely voter. Once that is constructed you go out and try to find voters to fit these categories. If you're expecting to find 40% Dems and 35% Republicans and its 40% each either the sample is wrong or you're model is. Generally the pollster will publish the poll and then go back and see if the model needs to be re-worked.

tldr: Being a good pollster is really hard.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
HylianTom said:
That Jeb Bush ad predicting an "unprecedented victory not since Reagan 1984" is looking more and more prophetic.

Honestly, I keep waiting for the polls to start tightening, but damn if they aren't staying stubbornly wide for us. Damn.

I hope Trump and the GOP get electorally buried so that they finally get the damn message: NEVER AGAIN.
Click to expand...

So, we have what at this point appears to be a clear and growing margin for Hillary. There is vaguely some precedent for this. Trump is getting Akin'd. Nationally.

Obviously it's too early for hard conclusions, depends on how the next few weeks go, (Infomercial, oppo drops, wikileaks, secret endorsements). But as a reminder - Akin polled -6 and finished -16. There's still more room for the floor to fall out from under Trump. Factor in the turnout gap, the likelihood of growing Republican disinterest, and it's increasingly implausible to see the GOP house survive. Or even for Rubio to.
Manmademan said:
Again, and it has to be reiterated-

This is "likely voters." Imagine where "unlikely" voters would take these numbers? We've seen the turnout so far, they're showing up, and showing up in big numbers.

edit: and yeah, if this is anywhere close to real the house is done. an 8 point national lead would send it into D territory. 12+ points is MORE than enough.
Click to expand...

All unlikely Democrats turn up, while many likely Republicans stay home, enraged at the establishment for either bailing on or standing by Trump.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Most pollsters build a larger universe of the electorate to get an idea who is a likely voter. Once that is constructed you go out and try to find voters to fit these categories. If you're expecting to find 40% Dems and 35% Republicans and its 40% each either the sample is wrong or you're model is. Generally the pollster will publish the poll and then go back and see if the model needs to be re-worked.

tldr: Being a good pollster is really hard.
Click to expand...

cool thanks!
 
C

CCS

Banned
A Serious Man said:
Election night is going to be so fucking good. I may not be able to handle it.
Click to expand...

I've already imported a case of my favourite beer from Portugal, booked the next day off work, and I'm commandeering my dad's laptop so I can have two screens as well as BBC News TV coverage. It's going to be beautiful.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Manmademan said:
Again, and it has to be reiterated-

This is "likely voters." Imagine where "unlikely" voters would take these numbers? We've seen the turnout so far, they're showing up, and showing up in big numbers.

edit: and yeah, if this is anywhere close to real the house is done. an 8 point national lead would send it into D territory. 12+ points is MORE than enough.
Click to expand...

My boner respectfully asks that you stop this. It can only take so much.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Gruco said:
So, we have what at this point appears to be a clear and growing margin for Hillary. There is vaguely some precedent for this. Trump is getting Akin'd. Nationally.
Click to expand...

yup.

Obviously it's too early for hard conclusions, depends on how the next few weeks go, (Infomercial, oppo drops, wikileaks, secret endorsements). But as a reminder - Akin polled -6 and finished -16. There's still more room for the floor to fall out from under Trump. Factor in the turnout gap, the likelihood of growing Republican disinterest, and it's increasingly implausible to see the GOP house survive.
Click to expand...

yup.


All unlikely Democrats turn up, while many likely Republicans stay home, enraged at the establishment for either bailing on or standing by Trump.
Click to expand...

we're also missing that there are about 5% "undecided" in that poll. Undecideds are at this point mostly reluctant hillary supporters or independents. I posted an earlier PPP poll that had Trump's favorability with undecideds pretty much at zero. if they show up this group is going for hillary. they're not likely to split equally along party lines, simply because of how terrible Trump is as a candidate.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Is someone going to start an EV pool thread? AVI bets really do make this place fun as hell. I don't follow basketball so I'm always leftout of the bracket-mania
 
N

nature boy

Member
Just to recap:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 21m21 minutes ago Washington, DC
Live interview natl polls
Average: C+8.7
Atl./PRRI: C+15
ABC: C+12
Mon.: C+12
NBCWSJ: C+10
CBS: C+9
Selzer C+9
Bg C+8
Fox C+7
Q C+7
IBD T+2
 
S

shiba5

Member
Did you guys know that there are bee hives on the south lawn of the White House? I just learned that yesterday and thought it was really cool that there are Presidential honey bees.
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
It's really amazing how funny Golden Girls is. I want another women-driven comedy like this. It's so singular in its greatness and what it accomplishes.

You know the writing is spectacular when virtually every scene takes place in either the kitchen or the living room and it doesn't even matter. The dialog and characterization are a Golden (ha ha GET IT?) standard.
 
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