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[Holmes]

I'm going to the inauguration. I think I'll fly in the night before and then wait at the national park and then fly out that night. We should have a PoliGAF meet up.

 

[shem935]

I'm going to the inauguration. I think I'll fly in the night before and then wait at the national park and then fly out that night. We should have a PoliGAF meet up.

I'm thinking about making a road trip of it. Not sure yet, have to see if I can get tickets to the official ceremony.

 

[Wilsongt]

Jan Brewer... Just said Trump was waterboarded by the issues...

 

[CCS]

I'm going to the inauguration. I think I'll fly in the night before and then wait at the national park and then fly out that night. We should have a PoliGAF meet up.

If I had enough money I would fly in from the UK for it.

 

[Stinkles]

George Stephanolpous just gave Eric Trump a free ride on the following answers:

You're down in the polls by double digits:

Lists LA Times, IBD, Rasmussen - George lets it slide.

Your dad now has 11 sexual assault accusers:

Those women all came forward on Wikileaks day, why didn't they say something before? George lets it slide.

Also let him claim poll rigging has basis in fact etc etc.

George has always been terrible but these things are so easy to refute and rebuke, I assume it's a quid pro quo to even get him on the show.

 

[Kevinroc]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/karl-rove-donald-trump-cant-win_us_580cb4c1e4b000d0b15727dc

Has PoliGAF discussed how even Karl Rove has said Trump can't win? (We won't have another Rove meltdown on Election Night.)

 

[User 463088]

I'm trying to talk Colt into going, but he's going to be starting school and we won't probably be able to take the time.

 

[CCS]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/karl-rove-donald-trump-cant-win_us_580cb4c1e4b000d0b15727dc

Has PoliGAF discussed how even Karl Rove has said Trump can't win? (We won't have another Rove meltdown on Election Night.)

That was the best part of 4 years ago. Sad!

 

[NeoXChaos]

The only way I'm going is if Cybit or Cesare can get me free tickets, airfare and hotel for 3 nights.

 

[Manmademan]

Honestly? Hopefully never. The risks of tampering are too high to make for up for the convenience. We should all be hoping for a system like in Washington where they just mail everyone their ballot (and automatically register everyone?) and give them a decent amount of time to look everything up and make educated decisions.

Yep. You'll get online voting the same day you get completely, 100% secure online banking.

which is to say, fucking never.

 

[Debirudog]

We probably won't get it but if Hill gets Texas then we deserve the house.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Fox News literally published an article on this email.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...eged-mistress-nicknamed-energizer-bunny.html#

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/23668

It was an email where Hillary's team was mocking a Daily Mail article about a trashy tabloid-like book and then they decided to use that email thread to set up a call.

... Fox wrote an article suggesting that the Hillary team was deeply concerned about the allegations.

Wikileaks was very proud of this article and promoted it on their Twitter account.

Fox picks up our story on Bill Clinton's 'Energizer Bunny' 'affair'

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/789973762594770944


... Can we deport these people to some place since they obviously don't know how to speak English?

 

[Manmademan]

We probably won't get it but if Hill gets Texas then we deserve the house.

it hillary gets texas then we're in landslide territory...which I think we pretty much are.

I don't think this will quite get to "reagan/mondale" 18% margin levels...but it might be close.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

We need Hillary+13 in the polls since I think that would get her to +16 in the actual results (from bandwagon effect and superior organization) and give her around 470 EVs.

 

[Wilsongt]

BOTH SIDES BOTH SIDES OPRAHS UNENTHUSIASTIC ENDORSEMENT IS A TERRIBLE THING FOR HILLARY!!! PODESTA WIKILEAKS TERRIBLE FOR CLINTON ENTHUSIASM GAP

 

[NeoXChaos]

On depressed R turnout:

Sean T at RCP ‏@SeanTrende 16m16 minutes ago
Sean T at RCP Retweeted Kyle Kondik
This=scenario I presented a few weeks back. If this happens lots of assumed safe districts will flip on Election Day. BUT, 1 poll.

 

[Holmes]

I'm trying to talk Colt into going, but he's going to be starting school and we won't probably be able to take the time.

Come on. It's one day.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

It's kind of remarkable that we're halfway through these things and people have to willfully throw aside reading comprehension or contort themselves into a pretzel to find something to tweet about.

 

[Holmes]

Guyyyss. We're young. We can travel, make a day of it and then fly out. 3 nights at a hotel? What are you, the 1%?

 

[Grief.exe]

On depressed R turnout:

Sean T at RCP ‏@SeanTrende 16m16 minutes ago
Sean T at RCP Retweeted Kyle Kondik
This=scenario I presented a few weeks back. If this happens lots of assumed safe districts will flip on Election Day. BUT, 1 poll.

Kyle Kondik
‏@kkondik

ABC poll finds declining R interest in voting. If that persists it represents the doomsday scenario for R down-ballot candidates

It's happening

George Stephanolpous just gave Eric Trump a free ride on the following answers:

You're down in the polls by double digits:

Lists LA Times, IBD, Rasmussen - George lets it slide.

Your dad now has 11 sexual assault accusers:

Those women all came forward on Wikileaks day, why didn't they say something before? George lets it slide.

Also let him claim poll rigging has basis in fact etc etc.

George has always been terrible but these things are so easy to refute and rebuke, I assume it's a quid pro quo to even get him on the show.

There are a lot of journalists who come from 20-30 years ago who aren't equipped to handle the new Trump-inspired politics.

 

[Wilsongt]

Guyyyss. We're young. We can travel, make a day of it and then fly out. 3 nights at a hotel? What are you, the 1%?

I'm broke and I don't travel.

 

[User 463088]

Guyyyss. We're young. We can travel, make a day of it and then fly out. 3 nights at a hotel? What are you, the 1%?

We got two kids brah. But, I'm working on him! I hope he'll cave, but I have my doubts. He hasn't caved on PS VR....

 

[ryutaro's mama]

We need Hillary+13 in the polls since I think that would get her to +16 in the actual results (from bandwagon effect and superior organization) and give her around 470 EVs.

These fanfic EV scenarios are getting out of hand.

 

[SpeedySwaf]

It's happening

Well, like he said, it's one poll.

Now, if more and more start to show the same thing as we approach election day, then you can celebrate. (Or, in their case, panic.)

 

[metalslimer]

Jan Brewer is hilariously insane. It's nice that non Trump surrogate republicans have accepted this is over though.

 

[Retromelon]

Eleanor Roosevelt's mistress died heartbroken and alone

They called each other “darling,” “dear one” and “heart.” They told each other “je t’aime” and “j’adore,” and wrote more than 3,000 letters to one another.

“All day I’ve thought of you . . . Oh! I want to put my arms around you, I ache to hold you close,” the normally reserved Eleanor Roosevelt wrote in March of 1933 to her beloved. No, not her husband, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, but a brilliant, bourbon-drinking, cigarette-smoking Associated Press reporter named Lorena Hickok, or Hick.

“Above all, Hick was a writer,” Quinn concludes. “But she couldn’t seem to sell her work. Part of the problem was her loyalty to the Roosevelts: All her pieces about them lacked critical distance.”

Hick sacrificed that distance for closeness to Eleanor, whose affections later shifted toward her handsome, much younger doctor, David Gurewitsch. “I love you as . . . I have never loved anyone else,” Eleanor wrote him in 1956.

After Eleanor’s death in 1962, Hick lived for 5 ¹/₂ more years, worn down by blindness, arthritis and loneliness. She finally died of complications from diabetes at the age of 75.

With great ceremony, Eleanor was buried alongside Franklin at the Roosevelts’ Hyde Park estate in upstate New York; in addition to the ambassador to the United Nations and two former presidents, Truman and Eisenhower, President John Kennedy attended her funeral, where she was remembered as “the First Lady of the World.”

In her anonymity, Hick was cremated. Her ashes sat on a shelf of a funeral home for 20 years before being interred in an unmarked grave at a cemetery in Rhinebeck.

That last part felt especially poignant in its sorrow

 

[Ecotic]

I really want Darrell Issa to lose.

 

[Manmademan]

These fanfic EV scenarios are getting out of hand.

a margin of 3% not being reflected in polling due to the lopsided disparity in ground game isn't all that unreasonable.

it's exactly what happened with obama/romney in 2012. AFAIK no one has really come up with a good way to account for it, and the gap betwen Trump and Clinton is MUCH bigger than they romney/obama campaigns.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

a margin of 3% not being reflected in polling due to the lopsided disparity in ground game isn't all that unreasonable.

it's exactly what happened with obama/romney in 2012. AFAIK no one has really come up with a good way to account for it, and the gap betwen Trump and Clinton is MUCH bigger than they romney/obama campaigns.

+16 nationally is fanfic.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

+16 nationally is fanfic.

+13 in polling seems like fanfic... Except that a +12 poll was just released.

+13 in polling would lead to a +16 victory nationally, I'm pretty sure.

 

[StopMakingSense]

+16 nationally is fanfic.

Uh, I don't know if you've heard, but anime is real.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

+16 nationally is fanfic.

Before this year, I would have said that Donald Trump being the GOP nominee for president was fanfic, and yet here we are.

 

[Manmademan]

+16 nationally is fanfic.

you think so? then back it up. There was a 3 point gap between Obama's final polling average in 2012, and his actual result, due to ground game. Assuming a similar result in 2016 is actually conservative- Trump has no GOTV effort at ALL.

As for "just one poll"

Just to recap:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 21m21 minutes ago Washington, DC
Live interview natl polls
Average: C+8.7
Atl./PRRI: C+15
ABC: C+12
Mon.: C+12
NBCWSJ: C+10
CBS: C+9
Selzer C+9
Bg C+8
Fox C+7
Q C+7
IBD T+2

ABC is not the only poll that's had clinton over 10+ points. Atl/PRRI had her at 15. Monmouth had her at 12. NBC/WSJ had her at 10. Ignore the obviously bullshit IBD poll (because they have a pattern of being a shit pollster that moves to consensus on the final day, every election) and the PRRI poll (assuming its an outlier on the high end) and she's at an average of 10 points.

There is clear precedent for toxic candidates finishing well below their polling- Todd Akin polled at -6 and finished up at -16. Trump is unlikely to come close to his polling on actual election day- landslide elections depress turnout something awful for the losing candidate. Why bother showing up if you've already lost?

If Hillary POLLS at +13 (which isn't that far off from where she is now) a +16 final result is what I'd expect.

 

[Holmes]

We got two kids brah. But, I'm working on him! I hope he'll cave, but I have my doubts. He hasn't caved on PS VR....

Ditch the kids and the man and come alone. That's what I'm doing. Well, without the kids.

 

[Iolo]

I'm going to be glued to CNN and I hope they have Lewandowski, Lord, Kayleigh, and Scottie all in a room when the results are announced. Oh yeah and I agree Texas is a lost cause, I just want to see someone outside of Trump (which was horrific).

Sean Spicer's Twitter might be amusing as well. Priebus will just be passed out in a bowl of corn flakes, no fun there.

 

[bananas]

Uh, I don't know if you've heard, but anime is real.

all according to keikaku?

 

[ryutaro's mama]

you think so? then back it up. There was a 3 point gap between Obama's final polling average in 2012, and his actual result, due to ground game. Assuming a similar result in 2016 is actually conservative- Trump has no GOTV effort at ALL.

As for "just one poll"

Just to recap:



ABC is not the only poll that's had clinton over 10+ points. Atl/PRRI had her at 15. Monmouth had her at 12. NBC/WSJ had her at 10. Ignore the obviously bullshit IBD poll (because they have a pattern of being a shit pollster that moves to consensus on the final day, every election) and she's at an average of 10 points.

There is clear precedent for toxic candidates finishing well below their polling- Todd Akin polled at -6 and finished up at -16.

If Hillary POLLS at +13 (which isn't that far off from where she is now) a +16 final result is what I'd expect.

I would be the first to happily eat crow if it happened but I just don't see a scenario where a +16 happens on election day.

I think she wins handily but that number feels insane.

 

[Manmademan]

I would be the first to happily eat crow if it happened but I just don't see a scenario where a +16 happens on election day.

I think she wins handily but that number feels insane.

Republicans go by feeling. the rest of us use data.

 

[shiba5]

The only way I'm going is if Cybit or Cesare can get me free tickets, airfare and hotel for 3 nights.

I wonder if the new Trump International hotel in D.C. will have tremendous deals for the inauguration? I can't imagine anyone flying in would want to stay there.
(Assuming, of course, that Trump loses bigly.)

I was born here and never lived anywhere else and have never been to an inauguration. Kinda pathetic.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Republicans go by feeling. the rest of us use data.

I'm not a republican, so nice try. The current DATA is an average of C +8.7. Adding the 3 that most believe is missing in the polls, that's C +11.7.

That isn't +16.

But sure, focus on me typing the word "feel" if you like.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The only factor that is truly unknown is just how bad Trump's organization is. I can't think of the last time we have seen a national campaign that was this unprepared, it's impossible to understand what that will mean.

 

[eBay Huckster]

just wanna point out: the +3 due to ground game disparity is actually a conservative estimate

 

[ryutaro's mama]

The only factor that is truly unknown is just how bad Trump's organization is. I can't think of the last time we have seen a national campaign that was this unprepared, it's impossible to understand what that will mean.

The non existent ground game is what will come out in the wash. Trump thought he could substitute Twitter for an effective ground campaign. That shit may work in a Primary but not in a GE.

 

[User 463088]

Ditch the kids and the man and come alone. That's what I'm doing. Well, without the kids.

This idea has merit.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Zuckerberg's appeasing of the far-right is going really badly in every regard.

https://twitter.com/redletterdave/status/790184689650765825

edit: Hillary is at +8 right now so it's not at all certain or likely that she gets to +13... But I think there's a chance.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

just wanna point out: the +3 due to ground game disparity is actually a conservative estimate

What is the non conservative estimate?

 

[Manmademan]

I'm not a republican, so nice try. The current DATA is an average of C +8.7. Adding the 3 that most believe is missing in the polls, that's C +11.7.

That isn't +16.

But sure, focus on me typing the word "feel" if you like.

Not calling you a republican. Just telling you not to go by what "feels" right and look at the numbers.

your averaging ignores that Trump's numbers are getting worse daily. older polls may not reflect this. different pollsters may also take the same data, apply different assumptions about turnout and end up with different conclusions. So far what we've seen from actual results from early voting has democratic turnout drastically exceeding even the rosiest projections. EVERYONE's assumptions about democratic turnout is too conservative.

Because of what we know from turnout numbers breaking records, Clinton is far more likely to be at +12 right now than +6.

something else to consider: The ABC poll gave Clinton a 20 point lead among all women. This is very close to the same conclusion that the CBC came up with on the 19th, looking at 4 OTHER pollster's detailed demographic data.

An average of four recent national polls that published detailed demographic data (Monmouth, CBS/New York Times, Morning Consult and Fox News) and that were conducted after the second presidential debate, when the sexual assault allegations started making headlines, shows Clinton enjoying a lead of 16 points among decided female voters (53 to 37 per cent) — compared to a tied race among men (43 per cent apiece).

Averaging Monmouth, CBS, Moning Consult, and Fox news, Clinton had a 16 point lead among female voters, and was tied among men.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-uselection-polls-women-1.3810292?cmp=rss

considering that women vote slightly more frequently than men do, where exactly does your feeling tell you that clinton ends up with on election day, when winning women by 16-20 points, and men tied to a small lead?

it aint 8-11 points.

 

[Aaron Strife]

What is the non conservative estimate?

+50

 

[Iolo]

Eleanor Roosevelt's mistress died heartbroken and alone

That last part felt especially poignant in its sorrow

Welcome back

If Hillary won Texas the implosions on twitter would be unprecedented.

Texas couldn't even secede in that case because it would make them a liberal country.

Good article on how amazing Jason Kander is as a candidate.

Now imagine if Dems' bench weren't decimated and we ran reasonable candidates rather than scrublord Murphy and Mr. Strickland.

 

[NeoXChaos]

What is the non conservative estimate?

+6 I would guess. Could be more.