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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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W

Wilsongt

Member
According to Trump, voter fraud is totally fine as long as you vote fraduently for him.

Oh boy November 9 is going to be a shitstorm...
 
M

metalslimer

Member
adam387 said:
I think we should send someone to Texas. I know Dad went, but maybe we could spare Joe or Michelle.
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I agree with Kev that those resources need to be put elsewhere. I love it just to make the GOP get even more worried, but they need to be hitting every competitive Senate state or at least a place where there is a chance. There is nothing to gain in Texas besides gloating. If TX does fall, it will be from the GOP voting base collapsing by the end of the race.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
metalslimer said:
I agree with Kev that those resources need to be put elsewhere. I love it just to make the GOP get even more worried, but they need to be hitting every competitive Senate state or at least a place where there is a chance. There is nothing to gain in Texas besides gloating. If TX does fall, it will be from the GOP voting base collapsing by the end of the race.
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Then let's send Bernie. He can go to Austin or wherever. Since he is a valued member of our campaign team, and an integral voice in our party's future, let's send him to Texas to help out.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
metalslimer said:
I agree with Kev that those resources need to be put elsewhere. I love it just to make the GOP get even more worried, but they need to be hitting every competitive Senate state or at least a place where there is a chance. There is nothing to gain in Texas besides gloating. If TX does fall, it will be from the GOP voting base collapsing by the end of the race.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Texas is a fun trophy to fantasize about (I'm definitely guilty of it).. but the Congressional GOP is going to question her legitimacy whether she wins with 270EVs or with north of 400EVs. Downticket should be priority #1.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
Ether_Snake said:
My bet is if Trump thinks he's not going to win, he'll tell his voters to NOT go vote. He'll tell them to deligitimize Hillary's win through absentee, so that once she is in office people will be able to say she was elected by the smallest number of Americans ever. Then he has four years to attack her and the Republicans, and hope for a come back in 2020, as a third party. At that point he wouldn't try to win the presidency, he'd just run to destroy the Republicans, a battle he could possibly win.
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I don't think Trump is capable of using game theory to this level.
 
Vigilant Walrus

Vigilant Walrus

Member
I didn't see a thread for this. Was it already posted?;

A specter is haunting Speaker Paul Ryan — the specter of Bernie Sanders controlling the Senate budget committee.

Speaking at an event with College Republicans in Wisconsin earlier this week, Ryan warned that letting the Senate slip back into Democratic hands might give Vermont’s democratic socialist one of the most powerful positions for shaping the federal budget.

“If we lose the Senate, do you know who becomes chairman of the Senate budget committee?,” Ryan said, according to the Nation. “A guy named Bernie Sanders. Ever heard of him? That’s what we’re dealing with here if we lose control of the Senate.”

Ryan’s hit on Sanders backfired, badly. Citing Ryan’s comments in a fundraising blast, Sanders was able to raise just under $2 million in two days for about a dozen Democratic Senate and House candidates — furthering his chances of actually becoming budget committee chair.
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One of the biggest beneficiaries of the fundraising haul was North Carolina Democrat Deborah Ross, who could unseat Republican Sen. Richard Burr in the state, according to the Washington Post. Sanders has made helping in down-ballot races a big priority since exiting the presidential primary, and he was quick to jump at the opportunity created by Ryan’s remarks.

Try to imagine a Ryan-Sanders budget negotiation
For the audience he was addressing, Ryan’s remarks made sense: Conservatives, even young conservatives, have no great love for Bernie Sanders. In that context, citing the Vermont senator to frame the stakes of the 2016 election makes sense.

The problem for Ryan was that his remarks quickly ricocheted around the web and national media. And Sanders doesn’t just retain a big and loyal following that can quickly raise big gobs of cash — he also remains wildly popular with the American public at large.

In fact, as Princeton historian Matt Karp noted this week in Jacobin, Sanders has the highest favorability ratings of any major American politician. Turning the congressional elections into a referendum on Sanders himself is not, from any strategic standpoint, a good move for Ryan:

CvJ36DDXEAAfAfc.jpg
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Moreover, as John Nichols notes in the Nation, Sanders really does stand to dramatically increase his clout if the Democrats retake the Senate. Nichols writes:

Sanders could also end up chairing the powerful Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, which he could use to advance many of the proposals (for affordable college, empowering unions, and investing in public-health programs) that made his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination so popular.

The final list of committee assignments will be influenced by the choices of senior senators, such as Washington’s Patty Murray. “There’s lots of individual choices ahead, of people who are senior to Bernie,” says Senator Charles Schumer of New York, who is set to replace retiring Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada. Yet Schumer says of Sanders, “He will chair a significant committee if we win the majority.’’
In other words, nobody knows exactly how much standing Sanders will have in the next Senate Democratic caucus. But he seems poised to play a big role.

And just trying to imagine how Ryan and Sanders might try to strike a budget deal may make your head spin. Sanders has called for raising taxes on the top 0.1 percent by an average of $3 million. Ryan’s plans would slash the taxes paid by each member of the 1 percent by a quarter-million. Sanders proposed the most dramatic expansion of welfare programs out of every candidate in this year’s race. Ryan would decimate programs for the poor by two-thirds. Sanders wants a single-payer health care system. Ryan wants to raise the Medicare retirement age and has pushed a health care plan that risks leaving millions uninsured.
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http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/21/13358274/paul-ryan-bernie-sanders
 
M

metalslimer

Member
adam387 said:
Then let's send Bernie. He can go to Austin or wherever. Since he is a valued member of our campaign team, and an integral voice in our party's future, let's send him to Texas to help out.
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Haha I know you're just throwing shade, but even he can better used in places.

Edit: In response to that above article, the Sanders wing of the democratic party is going to end up clashing with the White House when the inevitable shutdown threats loom. Also, I don't know how Ryan is going to end up speaker if Trump loses in a landslide. The base will put the blame on him.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Amir0x said:
Only like two weeks left. 16 days for Trump to turn this ship around and be the Republican dream candidate lol
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I'm sure he'll announce a couple more MAJOR SPEECHES that the media will cover like it's a mini-SOTU. There might even be another CAMPAIGN RESET or two including PIVOTS.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
Honestly, Ryan being forced to negotiate a budget with Bernie Sanders gets me harder than the idea of Hillary nominating Obama for Scalia's SCOTUS seat.

Top kek as the kids sometimes say.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
adam387 said:
Then let's send Bernie. He can go to Austin or wherever. Since he is a valued member of our campaign team, and an integral voice in our party's future, let's send him to Texas to help out.
Click to expand...

You just want Bernie out of the way for #podestaemails58 whereby Tom Perez is revealed to have said "bernie is annoying"
 
C

Chumly

Member
kevin1025 said:
Trump must be nervous about Florida, he's there today, tomorrow and Tuesday with five rallies in total.
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Well if he loses Florida he loses the election period so he doesn't really have a choice. In fact he has several must win states verses Hillary technically has many paths to 270
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Stinkles said:
George Stephanolpous just gave Eric Trump a free ride on the following answers:

You're down in the polls by double digits:

Lists LA Times, IBD, Rasmussen - George lets it slide.

Your dad now has 11 sexual assault accusers:

Those women all came forward on Wikileaks day, why didn't they say something before? George lets it slide.

Also let him claim poll rigging has basis in fact etc etc.

George has always been terrible but these things are so easy to refute and rebuke, I assume it's a quid pro quo to even get him on the show.
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It's pretty embarrassing to get outplayed by Eric Fucking Trump.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
It must suck to be John Podesta. Having no one outside of political buffs know you and then suddenly having your emails hacked by a group of people supporting a rapist... Then you become a pawn to try and take down the Nastiest Woman Ever and are posted about on twitter by faux progressives and alt-right scumbags.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Wilsongt said:
It must suck to be John Podesta. Having no one outside of political buffs know you and then suddenly having your emails hacked by a group of people supporting a rapist... Then you become a pawn to try and take down the Nastiest Woman Ever and are posted about on twitter by faux progressives and alt-right scumbags.
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I wonder if his email was hacked the same way some youtube people were hacked.
Calling his cell phone carrier and replacing his phone with one the hacker has.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
His email was hacked in one of those stupid scam emails that says go to this website and you need to change your password for security. So many people fall for that nonsense.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
...... People in the #PodestaEmails16 are very mad that... Hillary's team took polls that had large sample sizes in certain demographics to better estimate her support in those demographics?

CvdejkQUsAALIXX.jpg


The Trump campaign has finally become #GamerGate, where stupidity and ignorance regarding what journalists do and what words mean has caused thousands of tweets. This email has gotten hundreds of tweets and tens of thousands of retweets even though... it's about nothing.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
metalslimer said:
His email was hacked in one of those stupid scam emails that says go to this website and you need to change your password for security. So many people fall for that nonsense.
Click to expand...

Oh, then i'm disappointed he did not have 2 factor.
Especially for email.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Boke1879 said:
I think I read somewhere that his campaign is really going to focus Florida and either VA or PA
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You know what's funny...if Hillary wins NC, she needs neither PA nor FL.

There is no path to a trump victory with the time remaining.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
This is how PEW defines oversampling:

Oversampling

For some surveys, it is important to ensure that there are enough members of a certain subgroup in the population so that more reliable estimates can be reported for that group. To do this, we oversample members of the subgroup by selecting more people from this group than would typically be done if everyone in the sample had an equal chance of being selected. Because the margin of sampling error is related to the size of the sample, increasing the sample size for a particular subgroup through the use of oversampling allows for estimates to be made with a smaller margin of error. A survey that includes an oversample weights the results so that members in the oversampled group are weighted to their actual proportion in the population; this allows for the overall survey results to represent both the national population and the oversampled subgroup.

For example, African Americans make up 13.6% of the total U.S. population, according to the U.S. Census. A survey with a sample size of 1,000 would only include approximately 136 African Americans. The margin of sampling error for African Americans then would be around 10.5 percentage points, resulting in estimates that could fall within a 21-point range, which is often too imprecise for many detailed analyses surveyors want to perform. In contrast, oversampling African Americans so that there are roughly 500 interviews completed with people in this group reduces the margin of sampling error to about 5.5 percentage points and improves the reliability of estimates that can be made. Unless a listed sample is available or people can be selected from prior surveys, oversampling a particular group usually involves incurring the additional costs associated with screening for eligible respondents.

An alternative to oversampling certain groups is to increase the overall sample size for the survey. This option is especially desirable if there are multiple groups of interest that would need to be oversampled. However, this approach often increases costs because the overall number of completed interviews needs to be increased substantially to improve the representation of the subgroup(s) of interest.
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http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/#oversampling

These people are so dumb it's amazing.
 
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