ryutaro's mama
Member
I understood that reference.
Not calling you a republican. Just telling you not to go by what "feels" right and look at the numbers.
your averaging ignores that Trump's numbers are getting worse daily. older polls may not reflect this. different pollsters may also take the same data, apply different assumptions about turnout and end up with different conclusions. So far what we've seen from actual results from early voting has democratic turnout drastically exceeding even the rosiest projections. EVERYONE's assumptions about democratic turnout is too conservative.
Because of what we know from turnout numbers breaking records, Clinton is far more likely to be at +12 right now than +6.
something else to consider: The ABC poll gave Clinton a 20 point lead among all women. This is very close to the same conclusion that the CBC came up with yesterday.
Averaging Monmouth, CBS, Moning Consult, and Fox news, Clinton had a 16 point lead among female voters, and was tied among men.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-uselection-polls-women-1.3810292?cmp=rss
considering that women vote slightly more frequently than men do, where exactly does your feeling tell you that clinton ends up with on election day, when winning women by 16-20 points, and men tied to a small lead?
it aint 8-11 points.
I hope you're right.