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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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I understood that reference.


Not calling you a republican. Just telling you not to go by what "feels" right and look at the numbers.

your averaging ignores that Trump's numbers are getting worse daily. older polls may not reflect this. different pollsters may also take the same data, apply different assumptions about turnout and end up with different conclusions. So far what we've seen from actual results from early voting has democratic turnout drastically exceeding even the rosiest projections. EVERYONE's assumptions about democratic turnout is too conservative.

Because of what we know from turnout numbers breaking records, Clinton is far more likely to be at +12 right now than +6.

something else to consider: The ABC poll gave Clinton a 20 point lead among all women. This is very close to the same conclusion that the CBC came up with yesterday.



Averaging Monmouth, CBS, Moning Consult, and Fox news, Clinton had a 16 point lead among female voters, and was tied among men.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-uselection-polls-women-1.3810292?cmp=rss

considering that women vote slightly more frequently than men do, where exactly does your feeling tell you that clinton ends up with on election day, when winning women by 16-20 points, and men tied to a small lead?

it aint 8-11 points.

I hope you're right.
 
CNN created a small webseries called Science of Political Deception that examines Hillary and Trump with regards to lying and bullshittery by bringing experts to examine their "lies". Each episode is 3 mins and there are 5 in total.

DF6Xs0L.png


TLDW: Hillary lies just as much as a normal private citizen does, meaning, not much and the lies themselves are protective in nature. Trump is on a completely different level. If you do not wanna watch the 5 webisodes, watch just this one.. I screamed fuck yes after watching it. The way the media treated both Hillary and Trump's lies as equal in magnitude is something that greatly annoyed all of us this election.
 

Dany

Banned
I really like Jake tapper. He doesn't put up with the bullshit that either side spew. And his questions are so much more direct and pushing.
 

shiba5

Member
CNN created a small webseries called Science of Political Deception that examines Hillary and Trump with regards to lying and bullshittery by bringing experts to examine their "lies". Each episode is 3 mins and there are 5 in total.

DF6Xs0L.png


TLDW: Hillary lies just as much as a normal private citizen does, meaning, not much and the lies themselves are protective in nature. Trump is on a completely different level. If you do not wanna watch the 5 webisodes, watch just this one.. I screamed fuck yes after watching it. The way the media treated both Hillary and Trump's lies as equal in magnitude is something that greatly annoyed all of us this election.

It's still incredible to me that Hillary is the "liar" while Trump's pathological lying is given a free pass.
 
I understood that reference.




I hope you're right.

So does America.

It's possible that trump and clinton's numbers revert to some kind of mean over the next 16 days or so, but I don't really see this happening. Trump has been VERY successfully branded as someone guilty of repeated sexual assault, and that's not something that goes away all that quickly.

the narrative is also rapidly building that Trump has already lost- look at Rove on television this morning, just giving up. all that's going to do is going to depress republican turnout. Democrats and women on the other hand are all too motivated to express just how angry and disgusted they are with Trump- even if they're not in love with clinton.
 
It's still incredible to me that Hillary is the "liar" while Trump's pathological lying is given a free pass.
They also examine that as well.

Trump is a runaway freight train of lies and falsehoods, whereas Hillary is a normal human being. The reason why people buy Trump and not Hillary is because Trump uses 5th grader vocab. Hillary uses more complex sentences. Dumb Americans think that since he talks "just like me", he can't be lying whereas Hillary is hiding behind complete sentences and accurate grammar. It makes sense and cuts to the heart of American politics.

In a roundabout way, after watching this series I have come to respect Hillary more. It's like...she's NORMAL HUMAN BEING. Trump is a colossal lying fuck.
 
They also examine that as well.

Trump is a runaway freight train of lies and falsehoods, whereas Hillary is a normal human being. The reason why people buy Trump and not Hillary is because Trump uses 5th grader vocab. Hillary uses more complex sentences. Dumb Americans think that since he talks "just like me", he can't be lying whereas Hillary is hiding behind complete sentences and accurate grammar. It makes sense and cuts to the heart of American politics.

one could also phrase it in the sense that Trump comes off as speaking off the cuff and "what he feels" so it doesn't matter if it's accurate or not, he's being transparent and that's what matters.

Deplorables on the other hand see Hillary's falsehoods as being calculated deceptions designed to trick them- so she's worse.
 
So does America.

It's possible that trump and clinton's numbers revert to some kind of mean over the next 16 days or so, but I don't really see this happening. Trump has been VERY successfully branded as someone guilty of repeated sexual assault, and that's not something that goes away all that quickly.

the narrative is also rapidly building that Trump has already lost- look at Rove on television this morning, just giving up. all that's going to do is going to depress republican turnout. Democrats and women on the other hand are all too motivated to express just how angry and disgusted they are with Trump- even if they're not in love with clinton.

Yeah the "already lost" narrative hit one of my friends who is hard R republican in Texas. Voted on everything else, left the top of the ballot blank. His words, "No point, man. Already decided." He voted Romney and McCain in the last two.

Pretty sure he isn't alone. Meanwhile, up here in Washington, I can assure you the top of my ballot won't be blank. :)
 

Amir0x

Banned
The best thing about this isn't that no one saw it coming. It's that everyone saw it coming.

Democrats were crowing from the rooftops that Trump was their dream candidate, and would be completely unelectable in the general.

Establishment republicans were shitting themselves during the primaries, trying to drive home the point that Trump would be a general election disaster.

The "deplorables" didn't care. they drove this car right off a cliff despite being told the obvious.

They will not learn a lesson from this, they will claim "Fraud", burrow further into the breitbart media hole, and emerge again in 4 years backing an even worse candidate than they did in 2016.

This party is done.

I dont know how you could nominate a candidate worse than Trump. An actual card carrying Neo Nazi pedophile next up or some shit?
 

LotusHD

Banned
It's still incredible to me that Hillary is the "liar" while Trump's pathological lying is given a free pass.

I think in Trump supporters' minds they're able to handwave it away because Trump has never held office in anything. So somehow, he'll magically "tell it like it is" when he becomes the president. Whereas Hillary is the typical slimy politician that they've been taught to distrust since Day 1 (All politicians lie after all), so from their perspective, they perceive Hillary as lying about really serious shit, and being someone who they could easily see attempt to cover up something that the public might want to know about.

With Trump's lies, they only think of obvious shit like "I have the most respect for women", or "I am the least racist person you've ever met". Whereas Hillary has to deal with the emails, conspiracies of her involved in the deaths of 3 people, Benghazi, the already inherently low amount of trust people have for politicians in general, etc. Plus if you're watching things like Fox News or hearing Crooked Hillary repeatedly, it's unsurprising if you turn out having a negative opinion of her. As far as they're concerned, none of Trump's serious lies could ever equate to whatever they think Hillary has done.
 
I don't know if it's the vocabulary.

Ben Carson has a pretty normal speaking skills compared to other politicians and he's viewed as honest despite everything he's says being a lie.

I dont know how you could nominate a candidate worse than Trump. An actual card carrying Neo Nazi pedophile next up or some shit?

Paul LePage will get 14/88 tattoos and then win the nomination.
 
It's because liberals are critical of their own candidates' statements, but conservatives are not. Therefore, Hillary's statements are critiqued from the left and the right, but Trump's statements are only critiqued from the left.

Plus, Hillary is a woman and thus isn't given the benefit of the doubt that she is telling the truth because she's ambitious, and ambitious women are considered to be equivocating and dissembling right off the jump in the United States.
 
I dont know how you could nominate a candidate worse than Trump. An actual card carrying Neo Nazi pedophile next up or some shit?

you say this, but forget that Ben Carson was at one point the overwhelming #2 favorite right behind Trump.

And lest we forget 2012...Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum...
 

tuffy

Member
As I suspected, the "Trump is doomed" death-spiral is on its way for the last couple of weeks of the campaign. And since Trump doesn't give a damn about anyone else on the ballot, I expect he'll double-down on crazy conspiracy theories and "rigged" rhetoric which will drive down Republican turnout even more.
 
I don't know if it's the vocabulary.

Ben Carson has a pretty normal speaking skills compared to other politicians and he's viewed as honest despite everything he's says being a lie.



Paul LePage will get 14/88 tattoos and then win the nomination.

Ben Carson still spoke like a slightly polished Trump. Hillary - like a person who's careful her words do not get twisted - uses lot of qualifiers and specifics in talking about her actions. For example, she is technically correct that she did not send or receive anything that was marked classified. How are emails marked classified? It is relayed in the Header. She hung on to that specific, but had to dial back and say sorry to the idiot country made up of idiot people.
 
you say this, but forget that Ben Carson was at one point the overwhelming #2 favorite right behind Trump.

And lest we forget 2012...Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum...

And this election is going to make the politicians left in the GOP even more extreme. Just look at the threats Paul Ryan is getting from within and he isn't even that moderate! The Tea Party types got a hold of the party and they are screwed.
 
Now that I've voted and Hillary's victory seems all but assured I'm enjoying tuning out of this race for a bit.

It's been so damn exhausting
 
I guess it's old news, but Trump hotels will no longer feature Trump's name

http://www.travelandleisure.com/hotels-resorts/trump-scion-hotels
I feel kinda mixed about this.

On the one hand Trump deserves failure but on the other I have a personal connection with the many workers at his hotels in NYC and know how hard they work and how hard they've fought for their union and contracts and if this leads to determinations in their standards it would suck. Especially since many of these workers are the ones trumps demeaned and insulted.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Although it is still informative of how toxic the Trump brand is now. Aint no one think it is good business to be associated with the Trump brand.
 
I'm assuming everyone has seen the new CBS Texas poll?

Trump +3

Texas is officially in toss-up territory.

I'd like to see more polls by reputable pollsters saying the same thing before I'm comfortable declaring that, but so far it seems that way.

GOP has to be shitting themselves.
 
I don't know if it's the vocabulary.

Ben Carson has a pretty normal speaking skills compared to other politicians and he's viewed as honest despite everything he's says being a lie.



Paul LePage will get 14/88 tattoos and then win the nomination.

Ben Carson = Doctor = Saving lives = honest person
Hillary = Lawyer = Ruining lives = Liar

That's how the easily fear mongered see it anyway.
 
I really liked this NYT article about Democrats moving to the cities.

Democrats just don’t want to live where they’d need to live to turn more of the map blue.

As a native Missourian I totally felt this a few years ago. I was 100% determined to move out to one of the coasts and escape the shit-ness that is a large majority of this state. But instead I've come to appreciate St. Louis much more, despite all its problems. It helps that I'm currently in a small college town (that actually isn't that bad either), so when I come back for break or whatever I get to see all the cool things about being from that city from a different perspective. And as a result my vote is going to be a big deal, helping to get a Dem in both Senate seats and the Governorship, and perhaps even work to turn MO blue, though it's very unlikely.
 

hokahey

Member
I'd like to see more polls by reputable pollsters saying the same thing before I'm comfortable declaring that, but so far it seems that way.

GOP has to be shitting themselves.

3 polls since mid month are in the 3-4 point range. The spread is what makes it a toss up, not just that poll. It's officially a toss-up.

And yes, I bet they are. Feels good man.
 

hokahey

Member
I really liked this NYT article about Democrats moving to the cities.



As a native Missourian I totally felt this a few years ago. I was 100% determined to move out to one of the coasts and escape the shit-ness that is a large majority of this state. But instead I've come to appreciate St. Louis much more, despite all its problems. It helps that I'm currently in a small college town (that actually isn't that bad either), so when I come back for break or whatever I get to see all the cool things about being from that city from a different perspective. And as a result my vote is going to be a big deal, helping to get a Dem in both Senate seats and the Governorship, and perhaps even work to turn MO blue, though it's very unlikely.

Fuck yeah. Despite all of the hoosiers (inside joke just for us!) there are a lot of good people here and great things about STL.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
My bet is if Trump thinks he's not going to win, he'll tell his voters to NOT go vote. He'll tell them to deligitimize Hillary's win through absentee, so that once she is in office people will be able to say she was elected by the smallest number of Americans ever. Then he has four years to attack her and the Republicans, and hope for a come back in 2020, as a third party. At that point he wouldn't try to win the presidency, he'd just run to destroy the Republicans, a battle he could possibly win.
 

Bowdz

Member
Awwwww yeah buddy!

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...elle-obama-to-hold-first-joint-rally-thursday

First lady Michelle Obama will appear at a campaign event with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton on Thursday for their first joint appearance of the 2016 campaign, according to reports.

The event will take place in Winston-Salem, N.C., a state where Clinton leads GOP nominee Donald Trump by more than 2 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

Clinton held rallies in the state on Sunday as well, as she works to earn the state’s 15 electoral votes.

Obama has appeared on the trail for Clinton several times as Election Day draws nearer.

Her takedown of Trump earlier this month for boasting about his sexually aggressive behavior toward women earned praise from political strategists as one of the most effective stump speeches of the 2016 campaign.

Queen + queen
 
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