Since we are gonna get the Senate almost certainly now, I don't see how. If they try to block a Supreme Court nomination for four more years despite Democratic control of the Senate, they will end up going nuclear and forcing it through. Dems aren't gonna let such an important opportunity go, nor let Republican obstructionism shut down key institutions of our country.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
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Since we are gonna get the Senate almost certainly now, I don't see how. If they try to block a Supreme Court nomination for four more years despite Democratic control of the Senate, they will end up going nuclear and forcing it through. Dems aren't gonna let such an important opportunity go, nor let Republican obstructionism shut down key institutions of our country.
The polling in NV is comedy levels. Always remember Reid against Angle.
Modelling out the raw vote in Clark County is so easy - you have to make some cray cray assumptions for a Dem to lose NV.
Raw vote held up pretty good in 2012 and I think this year we go above and beyond again. The other side simply do not have the numbers to catch up to even a 2012 margin. NV is 1.3 on betfair if anyone is interested - free money.
SpeedySwaf
Member
Yeah, I feel they'd go with a "she's still being investigated!" defense, and make sure Congress is always trying to find something to investigate or uncover, regardless of how frivolous it is. They'll find any reason to deny a SC appointee, even if it means twisting their logic into knots or being just plain hypocritical.
whyamihere
Banned
Basileus777
Member
It's just been passed around this thread a bunch of times now.
User 463088
Banned
How? What does "going nuclear" mean exactly?
I realize they can throw a fit, but do they actually have a way to bypass their obstructionism?
A Link to the Past
Banned
This is so exciting today
1. Indiana tied
2. NV and NC favoring Dems
3. Republican turnout is dropping
Barring Clinton caught on tape murdering Benjamin:
1. Indiana tied
2. NV and NC favoring Dems
3. Republican turnout is dropping
Barring Clinton caught on tape murdering Benjamin:
Ending the filibuster at least for Supreme Court nominees, possibly for everything. It only takes a bare majority to change the rules of the Senate.
User 463088
Banned
We can get rid of the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees. It's the nuclear option, but we will definitely have to do it. As it stands, you need 60 votes for cloture. That's just a senate rule, not an actual law. We can change the senate rules by a majority vote, so that the GOP can't actually block Supreme Court nominations.
A member will motion to use majority rules to vote on the motion to begin debate on the nominee. A majority of members will approve said motion, and then they will begin debate with a majority, instead of a super majority.
Basically the terminology of "going nuclear" is a misnomer. It means the Senate will act with Majority Rule, you know, how most citizens actually incorrectly think it does.
whyamihere
Banned
I wasn't here yesterday! This thread moves fast.
Her doctor. She's probably dying too.
I've been so busy the last few days that I have almost no clue what's going on.
Wang has senate at 51 for dems+ind now though so I guess things are going well!
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yep, considering the shit the GOP has gotten away with, they will certainly do the same when they (in 8 to 16 years) win the presidency.
A GOP in 8-16 years capable of winning the Presidency will not resemble anything of the GOP today. So it'll be fine.
Looks like her bodyguard, the one people say looks like Hugh Jackman. Not sure his name.
bangbang i'm a timpani
Banned
User 463088
Banned
If I wasn't a taken woman, I would say he could guard my body any day of the week. Twice on Sunday.
User 463088
Banned
We need to win by 12 points now Adam! 12! Hillary is a tireless taskmaster, this is the new watermark. Make them phonecalls go go go!
VendettaRed07
Member
Probably already posted. But damn, what a badass ad this is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wqOApBLPio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wqOApBLPio
Carpe Carnim
Member
Wow, what a day. Hours on the road, finally check in with the goings on, and all this positive news is waiting for me. Now I've got my dog friend to give some belly rubs to, cold beers to drink, a Dolphins win against the Bills and promises of pizza from the wife. Could a Sunday be much better?
Good, it can finally take its rightful place alongside Minnesota.
RustyNails
Member
What a nice Sunday. And to top it off we still got the new The Walking Dead premiere tonight
whyamihere
Banned
Jon Ralston does a deeper dive at how awful these early numbers are for Republicans, especially in CD3 -and CD4:
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog
whyamihere
Banned
And OT wonders why we call him Bad Nate
Edit: Our issue with 538 this year in one image
There's something in the way either it averages state forecasts, or it possibly tries to extrapolate national #trendz based off of state polls, that causes the model to absurdly overreact to polls from safe blue and safe red states. Sorta like how she only had an 80% chance to win New Jersey at one point.
8 X 11 Printer Paper
Member
...
Somebody please stop Nate.
....Nate Copper really needs to think his model through a bit more.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Can people summarize the good news. I've been day drinking with friends (had some good jambalaya I really miss new orleans btw)
C +12 in ABC tracking poll.
Extremely promising early voting numbers for Democrats in NC and Nevada. Kellyanne Conway admits her campaign is behind.
Basically game over.
The main two things are a new ABC poll with Hillary +12 and indicating suppressed Republican turnout, and very good early vote numbers in NV.
And PoliGAF fan favorite Jon Ralston says downballot NV numbers look real bad: http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog
Also Clinton +3 in Florida, Trump +3 in Texas
Aaron Strife
Banned
Democrats will probably win the Senate race, CD-4, state house and senate and possibly CD-3. Good times.
Re:Indiana the race has kind of settled from the early gaudy double digit leads Bayh was posting early in the cycle, which would seem good for Republicans if they assume that trend will continue and the streams cross, but I'm not buying it. I feel fairly confident about this race.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Obama is looking Good. Silver has him at ~330 EV. Looking solid going into Election Day.
ThLunarian
Member
Wow this guy Jeff Jackson in Charlotte is good. He might be going places
...
Somebody please stop Nate.
Yes, just saw that and I came hear hoping for an anti-BadNate rant. Wasn't disappointed.
I mean, if this doesn't make him doubt his model... I don't what will. Hillary being -30 en Oklahoma brings her down 1.3 points?
Sure Nate.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Do we have any Aussie GAF that can shed some light on Assange's history in the cult, "The Family"?
What I can find online comes from some pretty sensationalist sources, and I can't find primary sources for most of the info. Is it true it was both White Supremecist AND Doomsday? And how does the bleaching of the hair fit into the scheme of things, and is there a reason he still bleaches his hair to this day?
What I can find online comes from some pretty sensationalist sources, and I can't find primary sources for most of the info. Is it true it was both White Supremecist AND Doomsday? And how does the bleaching of the hair fit into the scheme of things, and is there a reason he still bleaches his hair to this day?
Basileus777
Member
Those gaudy numbers were mostly from leaked Dem internals anyway.
Aaron Strife
Banned
We're on pace to start winning by triple digits. Please retire this meme.
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