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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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V

Veelk

Banned
Okay, I just took a day long nap because of my fucked up sleep schedule.

I remember reading a post that today Wikileaks would drop more oppo on HC that would end her.

I wake up to find the world is not on fire, so I'm guessing it's nothing?
 
GutsOfThor

GutsOfThor

Member
nature boy said:
They don't do a lot of polls (they're failing bigly) and we're 2 weeks out.


Current early voting:
Cvjaq3TWEAA-uVE.jpg:large
Click to expand...

A little concerned about those PA,FL and MI numbers.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Veelk said:
Okay, I just took a day long nap because of my fucked up sleep schedule.

I remember reading a post that today Wikileaks would drop more oppo on HC that would end her.

I wake up to find the world is not on fire, so I'm guessing it's nothing?
Click to expand...

Hillary thought an idea of a man dressed in a Donald Duck costume asking Trump about his taxes would be funny. And then her SuperPAC did it a few weeks or months later.

... Yes, that was the nuclear bomb.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
GutsOfThor said:
A little concerned about those PA,FL and MI numbers.
Click to expand...
PA has essentially no early voting at all.

MI basically has no early voting either. You can vote absentee, but there are fairly strict guidelines.
In order to vote before Election Day you need to meet one of the following qualifications:

You’re physically disabled and as a result, you cannot vote on Election Day without another person’s assistance
You can’t vote on Election Day because of the tenets of your religion
You can’t vote on Election Day in the precinct where you reside because you are an election precinct inspector in another precinct
You’re 60 years of age or older
You’re absent or expect to be absent from the township or city in which you reside during the entire time the polls are open for voting on Election Day
You’re confined in jail awaiting arraignment or trial
Click to expand...

Florida, those numbers are insanely good for us. GOP had a 5% early vote lead in 2008 and 2012, both times we won the state. The NPA is also up from 2012, I believe. We also have evidence that Hispanic vote is up 99% over 2012.
 
M

mo60

Member
I find it funny how trump supporters are constantly wishing for a polling error as big as the Alberta 2012 provincial election or the 2013 BC provincial election to happen in this election. A polling error that big has no chance of happening in this election.
 
J

johnny956

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
PA doesn't technically have early voting and requires some kind of legitimate excuss to vote absentee. Republicans typically dominate early voting in FL so that is a great result there.

No comment on MI
Click to expand...

Yea I thought it was common for Republicans to vote more early overall but not sure if that's nationwide or in specific states like Florida
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Doug Owens is promoting internal polls that have him down by 8.

Wrap it up, he's done.

Kind of weird he's done so much worse than two years ago considering 2016 is a great Dem year and 2014 was a terrible year.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
NeoXChaos said:
bummer.
Click to expand...

I feel kondik is being too conservative in his analysis. but that aside, I have the biggest issue here:

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
15. Maybe that backlash would actually open up some of those Deep South/Appalachian seats, like in 06-08. But not this year w/ Trump

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
14. Answer is, probably during a backlash year against an R president, or at least that's what history suggests

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 3m3 minutes ago
13. The good thing for Ds is that Trump is a bad fit for many of these districts. But if they can't win them now, when can they?
Click to expand...

Kondik suggests democrats would have a better time during a "backlash year" on a republican president than this year, because "history suggests it."

That doesn't hold water at all.

Go back and try and find a republican president more toxic than Trump is now. Trump right now is at 35.7 favorable and FALLING.

The only presidents remotely close to a second term average that bad are Harry Truman in the early 50s (36.5), Nixon during the watergate scandal (34.4), and GWB in the middle of Iraq war implosion (36.5) how often do presidents that fuck up THAT badly actually show up? Implying that democrats need to wait for americans to elect Nixon 2: Electric boogaloo before they realize what a shitshow the GOP is and dems take back the house is nonsense. You put the work in for that now, it will pay dividends.

Trump's favorability is already at the level where we impeach presidents and call to string them up for war crimes. You aren't getting anyone worse. Democrats are falling all over themselves to turn out to the polls while moderate republicans and conservatives are giving up on the race entirely. This is ABSOLUTELY the most ideal conditions for a flip- and I don't think we saw this kind of reaction even in 08. Trump is literally down to only the most ignorant, dyed in the wool hard right assholes and those are never up for grabs even in a "backlash" year.

Second- the "history suggests" argument ignores that the further back you look historically, the whiter and more male the electorate is.

We are rapidly speeding past the point where poorly educated white males decide much of anything. Recent polls have Trump losing women by 20 points and minorities by 50-80 points.

you don't need to convince rural whites in appalachia to vote for democrats when you're losing every moderate area in a landslide.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hillary thought an idea of a man dressed in a Donald Duck costume asking Trump about his taxes would be funny. And then her SuperPAC did it a few weeks or months later.

... Yes, that was the nuclear bomb.
Click to expand...

Yeah but she was caught on video blinking in Morse code "PRIORITIES USA IM DEAD SERIOUS ABOUT THE DUCK THING STOP INVEST AT LEAST A HALF MILLION IN COSTUMES STOP".

Very damning.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
BiggNife said:
It's the bullshit "silent majority" argument that has floated around since the primaries but there is absolutely zero proof of it. In fact, in the primaries most undecideds didn't vote trump.
Click to expand...

Funniest part is that there have been Trump rallies where people held up signs saying "The Silent Majority Stands With Trump" and the first thing that popped into my head was "If you guys are a silent majority then why won't you shut the fuck up?"

It's like the sign stuff. I have had a few Hillary supporters say they are worried because they see so many Trump signs and no Hillary signs and I immediately respond by explaining a few things:

1) Trump's fanbase are the ones who are so obsessed with projecting their love for Trump that they won't just get standard lawn signs but many will get those 6 ft x 4 ft signs because they don't want people to think they only kinda like Trump.

2) Trump's fanbase have literally been constantly taking down any Hillary signs they see. Yes some Hillary supporters have done this with Trump signs, but in most areas it's the deplorables that seem obsessed with taking down opposition signs.

3) Signs in general are a bad measurement for the same reason rallies are a bad measurement. Hillary supporters are the ones that don't spend all their days listening to talk radio and watching Fox News. Most will vote for Hillary and are excited to make her president, but 9 times out of 10 if they are the kind of people to get lawn signs then they are probably already volunteering for the campaign.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
mo60 said:
I find it funny how trump supporters are constantly wishing for a polling error as big as the Alberta 2012 provincial election or the 2013 BC provincial election to happen in this election. A polling error that big has no chance of happening in this election.
Click to expand...

what if we have a polling error as big as 2012 MO-Sen, though

by which I mean Clinton wins by 15 instead of 8
 
M

Manmademan

Member
adam387 said:
PA has essentially no early voting at all.

MI basically has no early voting either. You can vote absentee, but there are fairly strict guidelines.


Florida, those numbers are insanely good for us. GOP had a 5% early vote lead in 2008 and 2012, both times we won the state. The NPA is also up from 2012, I believe. We also have evidence that Hispanic vote is up 99% over 2012.
Click to expand...

I told y'all about that florida hispanic vote.
 
M

MetalGearZed

Member
You can't simultaneously claim you have the biggest crowds AND the silent majority. like, why tf would they be silent? they're the bullies. their whole message is anti pc/tell it like it is, standing up to the "establishment", merica' my baby lets protest gung ho
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
+1 for Hillary in Boise. The early voting is pretty smooth here at the Ada Country DMV. It's busy, but I didn't have to wait in line. They seem to be moving people along as quick as they come in.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
RustyNails said:
Telegraph says it uncovered Trump foreign fundraising scandal using undercover reporters.

Exclusive investigation: Donald Trump faces foreign donor fundraising scandal

Hillary PACs dodged a bullet
Click to expand...

Fucking of course. And the worst part is that nothing will ever come of it because we've decided as a nation that politicians can't be charged with shit since it looks "biased." Trump's campaign has several FEC violations against it, but none of it matters.

The worst thing about Trump is that he's called the bluffs that our country won't fix. Everybody always releases their taxes? Fuck that, why? Can't take donations from people abroad? Fuck that, why?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Are we ever going to make the individual mandate punishment bigger so that young people will buy health insurance and make the Obamacare exchanges actually viable?
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
losing to child molesters and then losing to a serial sexual assaulter in the span on two weeks. Disgusting.

(she wins Ohio, but it's much closer than 2012)

Are we ever going to make the individual mandate punishment bigger so that young people will buy health insurance and make the Obamacare exchanges actually viable?
Click to expand...

yes, with the carrot for this stick being medicare for all
 
V

Veelk

Banned
I have to admit, this place got a bit more boring now that we're not losing our heads over an impending apocalypse. Now it's just regular news stories about Trump being hilariously and disgustingly stupid and Hillary being hilarious and disgustingly not corrupt.
 
J

jiggle

Member
Veelk said:
I have to admit, this place got a bit more boring now that we're not losing our heads over an impending apocalypse. Now it's just regular news stories about Trump being hilariously and disgustingly stupid and Hillary being hilarious and disgustingly not corrupt.
Click to expand...
We need that oppo bomb
 
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