Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 1m1 minute ago
16. Anyway, tweetstorm concluded.
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
15. Maybe that backlash would actually open up some of those Deep South/Appalachian seats, like in 06-08. But not this year w/ Trump
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
14. Answer is, probably during a backlash year against an R president, or at least that's what history suggests
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 3m3 minutes ago
13. The good thing for Ds is that Trump is a bad fit for many of these districts. But if they can't win them now, when can they?
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 4m4 minutes ago
12. it'd be so much cheaper if the DCCC could just swoop in and buy an Arkansas or WV seat. But they can't anymore
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 5m5 minutes ago
11. Key Dem targets include seats in NoVa (VA-10), Philly (PA-8), Twin Cities (MN-2, MN-3). These can be pricey places to advertise
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 5m5 minutes ago
10. The added challenge to competing for those seats, though, is that many are covered by big, expensive media markets
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 6m6 minutes ago
9. We see that in Dem targets this time - they are going for suburban, educated seats where Trump likely will do poorly
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 6m6 minutes ago
8. The next Dem House majority will be built on strong Dem urban seats as well as suburban swing seats.
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 7m7 minutes ago
7. Those Deep South/Appalachian districts are now gone. Dems came close to winning a couple (WV-2) in 2014. But uncompetitive this year
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 8m8 minutes ago
6. In addition to often not being competitive, these districts are generally covered by inexpensive media markets
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 9m9 minutes ago
5. Just as a small example, before 2010 Dems held 3/4 seats in Arkansas and 2/3 in West Virginia
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 9m9 minutes ago
4. But another one is this - Democrats used to be able to rely on a base of conservative, blue dog Appalachian/Deep South districts
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 10m10 minutes ago
3. Those include GOP control of redistricting in many states and also the poor distribution of Democrats across the country
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 11m11 minutes ago
2. There are lots of built-in challenges for Democrats in the House that have been explained over and over again