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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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M

Manmademan

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Is this the election that proves, against all semblance of idealism and hope, that putting up two strongly disliked candidates (although Hillary's numbers are inching into "merely mediocre" territory) does more to boost turnout than two well-liked and well-qualified candidates?

Because now every side is turning out to make sure the other one doesn't win.
Click to expand...

Democrats are turning out. Republican turnout is down everywhere.
 
B

BSsBrolly

Banned
How long does it typically take for a candidate to pass the 50% mark in the polls? I feel like we should be seeing some by this point...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
@Nate_Cohn 2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Clinton leads by 7 points, 46-39 percent, in the final Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina
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@Nate_Cohn 39s39 seconds ago Manhattan, NY
Clinton leads 61-36 percent among early voters in North Carolina, according to our estimates http://newsdev.ec2.nytimes.com/preview/2016-10-24-nc-poll/master/ …
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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/25/upshot/north-carolina-poll.html?_r=0

This uses voter rolls so more expensive polls.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Qwerty710710 said:
I don't know yet. I don't know if I'm going to vote I'm not a fan of none of these candidates, but I live in a safe d state of New Jersey so my vote don't count really.
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If you want actual motivation to vote for Hillary, think about the future. Think about 10-20 years from now when someone of the next generation asks you who you voted for in 2016. They will be asking you in the context of what the history books say, which will focus on the following:

1) Hillary Clinton as the first woman POTUS

2) Hillary Clinton as one of the most experienced POTUSes

3) (if we take back the house) Hillary Clinton as the FDR of the 21st century

4) The horrors of the Donald Trump candidacy

And you will have the following ways to respond (with the following reactions):

1) I voted for Hillary Clinton. "Wow cool what was it like to be a part of that history?"

2) I voted for Donald Trump. "Wow you were one of the deplorables. How could you do such a horrible thing?"

3) I voted for neither. "That's kinda disappointing but at least you weren't one of the deplorables."

Only the 1st response is one you will be proud of decades later. All other responses will be either disgusting or disappointing in the eyes of those that ask.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
vxu6UGQ.png


hGudfkZ.gif
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
BSsBrolly said:
How long does it typically take for a candidate to pass the 50% mark in the polls? I feel like we should be seeing some by this point...
Click to expand...

Obama had just about hit 50 now in 2008 in the poll averages, and never hit it in 2012. Hillary's topline number isn't far off from previous years, but there are about twice as many third-party/undecideds still in the polling than usual.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
They can have Ohio honestly. North Carolina is beautiful. Ohio is a shitheap that no one wants to live in.

Lv gap is going to grow in states with early voting because lots of Clinton voters are going to say they already voted. Trump voters will say they are 100% likely to vote on November 35th.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Y2Kev said:
They can have Ohio honestly. North Carolina is beautiful. Ohio is a shitheap that no one wants to live in.

Lv gap is going to grow in states with early voting because lots of Clinton voters are going to say they already voted. Trump voters will say they are 100% likely to vote on November 35th.
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North Carolina is indeed gorgeous.

When my husband and I graduated from college, we faced a fork in the road: Austin, or The Triangle.

We went with Austin (and it worked out well, to be sure), but I always wonder how it would've went had we gone East instead..

...

Anyway.. if Hillary's taking NC by 7, that Senate seat is looking better.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
plagiarize said:
That remains a LOT to hope for.
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It's not impossible, but it's going to depend on polling underestimating the gulf between the 'get out the vote' operations. I don't know if anyone has done any analysis of the number of house races that could be flipped due to that factor. As it won't affect some races in red states that Clinton has not put nearly as much resources into offices and staff.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Suikoguy said:
It's not impossible, but it's going to depend on polling underestimating the gulf between the 'get out the vote' operations. I don't know if anyone has done any analysis of the number of house races that could be flipped due to that factor. As it won't affect some races in red states that Clinton has not put nearly as much resources into offices and staff.
Click to expand...

I think there is a chance, don't get me wrong, but I'll be very happy with taking Arizona in the electoral college, and taking senate control.
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
Not seen this posted here yet...

One GOP woman wonders why the men in her party won’t defend her
As a former communications aide to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and former senator Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), I can personally testify that Republican women have, for years, fended off accusations from the Democrats of the party’s allegedly anti-woman beliefs. What did we get for it? The nomination — by way of a largely older, male voting base — of a brazen and unapologetic misogynist.
Click to expand...

Trump will probably be off on his next grand scheme by 2017, but the party will left in the rubble he created. And, if the next GOP autopsy has any credibility, it needs to contain political obituaries for Trump’s most ardent defenders.

People such as Sen. Jeff Sessions (Ala.), Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Rudolph W. Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee and the others. Those who gave Trump credibility and used their influence to rationalize his obscene words and actions need to be named and shamed for what they did.
Click to expand...
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
gutterboy44 said:
Fantastic news, and a gif I haven't seen since animated avatars were nixed!
Click to expand...

Can someone explain to me the significance of this image on GAF? Is it an old meme? Did everybody make it their avatars or something? I've never really been able to piece it together.

It's like DinoGAF. I'm just not allowed to know.
 
D

Diablos

Member
adam387 said:
It's funny cause it's true....
Click to expand...
OH isn't totally bad. There are some nice areas.
I just want to finally see the argument that it's an oh so critical battleground state to carry if you want to win the general election invalidated.

We are neighbors, man. PA is just as gross as OH in many places. We're just lucky to have Philly to tip the balance during a Presidential race.
 
W

witness

Member
Man seeing that NC number this morning is fantastic.

Want some more Florida info today, very interested in Orange, Seminole, and Osceola county numbers. Voted in Orange so I did my part.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
witness said:
Man seeing that NC number this morning is fantastic.

Want some more Florida info today, very interested in Orange, Seminole, and Osceola county numbers. Voted in Orange so I did my part.
Click to expand...

Democrats entered the day down after about 2 weeks of vote by mail returns (and about 1.2 million ballots) about 20,000 votes. This 1.7% GOP advantage compares to a GOP advantage of 5% in 2012.

Then early voting happened.

First, not all counties have reported yet (17 yet to report, most are small), but when all said and done, over 300,000 will have voted on day one. Just to put into scale, 1.2 million voted by mail in the first two weeks.

When you add in the mail ballots from yesterday, 22% of all the ballots cast in Florida were cast in person yesterday. That is a remarkable number.

In total, Democrats reduced the Republican advantage of 1.7% going into yesterday to around 0.5% after day one (still counties reporting, so this number will move around).

Here are some interesting places on day one:

Won Duval County by 1,700 votes. Duval hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since Carter, and is one of those places where Trump really needs to run up the score. Dems also won the day in Polk County, an I-4 county that also hasn't voted for a Democrat since Carter.

Won Volusia County by several hundred, again a place that Trump was hoping to build on the gains of Romney in 2012.

And in bellwether county Hillsborough, the only place in Florida to vote for Bush twice and Obama twice, Democrats won by almost 3,000 votes, or roughly 14 points (49-35). By comparison, Democrats have a 7 point advantage in registration.

In fact, Democrats won every county along I-4, plus Pinellas -- including both Republican strongholds Polk and Seminole. The total I-4 vote was 48-33D. Seminole County hasn't voted Republican in a Presidential election since 1972.

Base turnout was also very encouraging.

In Orange County, Democrats won a robust day 53-27%

In Broward County, Democrats won a record day 63-20%

In Palm Beach, a county which improved for Romney in 2012, Dems won 53-27%

In Alachua, where the University of Florida is, it was 65-22% Dems.

And in Dade County, 10,000 more voters showed up on the first day of early voting than 2012. Of the 35,000 who cast a ballot, Democrats won the day 53-27%.
Click to expand...
tumblr_nrw9dutnYo1uqrfego1_500.gif
 
I

Incognito

Troll
HylianTom said:
North Carolina is indeed gorgeous.

When my husband and I graduated from college, we faced a fork in the road: Austin, or The Triangle.

We went with Austin (and it worked out well, to be sure), but I always wonder how it would've went had we gone East instead..
Click to expand...

ha. my fiancee are facing same fork in road. triangle or sacramento. and we're in san antonio currently. we've been to the area about 6 times the past two years and its just beautiful, particularly chapel hill. we're scoping out sacramento next month and then we decide..
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
I have now converted to CNN's New Day,
Morning Joe has been a shit show since debate 3 ended (you guys will say it was always a shit show)

Joe complaining about the Alicia Machado story being planned since February LOL,
Nov 9th Morning Joe episode will be glorious
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Can't wait to see some FL numbers once we hit the weekend. Those are historically the strongest days for the Democrats in the early vote.
 
N

nature boy

Member
NBC/SurveyMonkey is one stable mofo poll.

Abuela up 7 in NC and not dragging Ross? Lame.

Gimme dat Rassssss:

The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Clinton with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Donald Trump’s 42%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns five percent (5%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein picks up two percent (2%). Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Yesterday, it was Trump 43%, Clinton 41%. The race has remained competitive in our recent surveys, with the lead shifting back and forth between the top two candidates.
Click to expand...
 
G

gutterboy44

Member
Finale Fireworker said:
Can someone explain to me the significance of this image on GAF? Is it an old meme? Did everybody make it their avatars or something? I've never really been able to piece it together.

It's like DinoGAF. I'm just not allowed to know.
Click to expand...

Maybe there is more to it, but animated avatars used to be allowed, so many of them were. One user, forgot his/her name, had that gif as their avatar and was seemingly a pretty prolific poster on GAF because I felt like I saw it in every other thread. Anytime there would be a thread on complimenting or discussing avatars, everyone would quote that one and talk about how mesmerizing it was. Again, I don't know if there is more too it that lead it to be this well known thing, but that is my personal experience with it. It is definitely the most memorable animated avatar for me.

Back on topic, I have been so happy to see people who were mega Bernie fans, and pretty anti-Hillary, proudly showing themselves going out and voting early and enthusiastically for HRC. A few of them are still, "anyone but Trump" but a surprising amount have actually come around to pro HRC.
 
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