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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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B

Basileus777

Member
Cohn on the NYT poll:
We have 189 respondents from our two NC polls who have already voted early, per state data. Clinton leads among them 57-36. Johnson 3.
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Early voting data is validating our sampling of low turnout voters. EV = 12% of active NC vtrs and 12% of respondents. Most polls too high
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So those low turnout Trump supporters are not turning out, shocking!
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
What's that second thing mean

Expecting noncollege to turn out a lot? Don't worry they will vote EN MASSE on Election Day.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Worst Nate keeps being worst. Justin Wolfers, a respected economist at Michigan, points some out some issues with his model and guess what happens?

Justin Wolfers: There looks to be something very broken in the 538 “polls only” election model. (1 of a few)
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Worst Nate seven minutes later: I'm just going to say this once, but you make some very lazy critiques. Build a model yourself and see how this stuff works.
Click to expand...

Justin: Nate, I love what you guys are doing. And I'm taking it totally seriously. But I don't think the questions are out of bounds.
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How can someone be so sensitive over so reasonable questions from a serious academic?
 
B

Blader

Member
RustyNails said:
Kerry needs to stick around for few more years as SoS. I dont think I've seen such a consequential and effective SoS in recent history. Saved Afghanisthan from another civil war, Iran nuclear deal, mideast talks, dealing with Russian/Ukraine crisis, putting together the anti ISIS coalition, and whole host of other things I am not remembering. He is really good at this.
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Kerry's biggest and most important legacy will be negotiating (and saving at the very last minute) the Paris climate deal.
 
I

Ithil

Member
Teggy said:
I expect Trump is going to be all Obamacare all the time for the next 2 weeks.
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I wish someone would just call out this bullshit point he says over and over ("We're going to repeal Obamacare and replace it!") with the very obvious answer of "Replace it with what?".

Then he'll ramble about good deals and negotiations incoherently because he doesn't have an answer.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Bowdz said:
Beyond the awesome lead in the presidential number, this is more what I expect the final result to be. Tight in the Senate race and a decent margin for Cooper in the gubernatorial race.
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I will keep my ass-pulled opinions, mostly, to myself about the inadequacies of polling in FL, but until someone can show me conclusive evidence that this will be the year of the Ticket-Splitters, I will believe that Murphy has a good chance of pulling this off.

Rubio is not some magical Latino, with a wide and deep base, even in Miami. Murphy may be boring and unknown, but this wave is big enough to carry his ass.
 
B

bananas

Banned
First day of early voting for my county (Flagler County, FL) is up 20% from 2172 to 2774. Not to mention there are 5 extra days of early voting this year due to the hurricane.

My county went 53-45 for Romney in 2012, and more registered Republicans to Democrats (36-32).
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Is Trump seriously trotting out current employees of his to vouch for him? Yeah, as if they have a choice.
 
B

Barzul

Member
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/790904200863617024

Powerful ad from the Hilary campaign. They found a woman that the Trump Org discriminated against when it came to renting. Got major feels from it. Might be because I'm black...don't know I think most people would get strong feelings from it too. It just really emphasizes how much progress we've made as a country and Trump wants to take us back. No way. Vote people.
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
mclem said:
Deleted, what was it?
Click to expand...

Weird. Try this?

https://twitter.com/christianmccrea/status/790648440124342272

EDIT: The tweets are still there, but the link doesn't seem to work. I don't know why, maybe it's for followers only?

In any case:

XMROQiz.jpg

oWurHD5.jpg
Click to expand...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Barzul said:
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/790904200863617024

Powerful ad from the Hilary campaign. They found a woman that the Trump Org discriminated against when it came to renting. Got major feels from it. Might be because I'm black...don't know I think most people would get strong feelings from it too. It just really emphasizes how much progress we've made as a country and Trump wants to take us back. No way. Vote people.
Click to expand...
I am seething.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Barzul said:
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/790904200863617024

Powerful ad from the Hilary campaign. They found a woman that the Trump Org discriminated against when it came to renting. Got major feels from it. Might be because I'm black...don't know I think most people would get strong feelings from it too. It just really emphasizes how much progress we've made as a country and Trump wants to take us back. No way. Vote people.
Click to expand...

I am surprised Priorities USA did not have something like this on TV. Remember the Romney ad "Coffin" was brutal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1ZKV5h87RE
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Barzul said:
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/790904200863617024

Powerful ad from the Hilary campaign. They found a woman that the Trump Org discriminated against when it came to renting. Got major feels from it. Might be because I'm black...don't know I think most people would get strong feelings from it too. It just really emphasizes how much progress we've made as a country and Trump wants to take us back. No way. Vote people.
Click to expand...

Wow. This is amazing.
 
A

aaaaa0

Member
Barzul said:
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/790904200863617024

Powerful ad from the Hilary campaign. They found a woman that the Trump Org discriminated against when it came to renting. Got major feels from it. Might be because I'm black...don't know I think most people would get strong feelings from it too. It just really emphasizes how much progress we've made as a country and Trump wants to take us back. No way. Vote people.
Click to expand...

Brutal.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Barzul said:
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/790904200863617024

Powerful ad from the Hilary campaign. They found a woman that the Trump Org discriminated against when it came to renting. Got major feels from it. Might be because I'm black...don't know I think most people would get strong feelings from it too. It just really emphasizes how much progress we've made as a country and Trump wants to take us back. No way. Vote people.
Click to expand...

Fuck him so much. I just donated again. Every little bit counts.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Barzul said:
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/790904200863617024

Powerful ad from the Hilary campaign. They found a woman that the Trump Org discriminated against when it came to renting. Got major feels from it. Might be because I'm black...don't know I think most people would get strong feelings from it too. It just really emphasizes how much progress we've made as a country and Trump wants to take us back. No way. Vote people.
Click to expand...
When we talked about oppo back in the Spring, this is the kind of stuff I expected to see, along with ex-students from Trump U and a never-ending stream of screwed-over contractors. I guess those are negative ads you'd see more of in a relatively close election featuring a more normal candidate. In this environment, with this candidate, I guess it's hard to make an impact unless the oppo is truly spectacular.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Of all the fuckery and bad faith generated in 2010, nothing hurts my soul more than what the GOP has done to WI. I always looked towards my Cheesehead brothers and sisters for a glimmer of hope that our nation could be caring and sensible.

City clerk in Green Bay refused to put early voting site on campus because "students lean more toward the Democrats"
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As a result of the court decision, Madison opened 11 early voting locations, including at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Edgewood College, and Milwaukee opened three sites, with a massive increase in hours from 2012. State Representative Eric Genrich proposed opening an early-voting location at UW–Green Bay for 20 hours during the week before Election Day, at a cost of no more than $10,000, which the city had a surplus to pay for, but the city clerk wouldn’t budge. The early voting turnout in Green Bay has so far lagged behind the rest of the county and the state.

Green Bay’s refusal to put a polling place at the campus is indicative of the Wisconsin GOP’s broader attack on student voting. Under Wisconsin’s strict voter-ID law, student IDs from most public and private universities and colleges are not accepted because they don’t feature signatures or a two-year expiration date, compared to a ten-year expiration for driver’s licenses. Only three of twenty-six schools in the University of Wisconsin system offer compliant IDs, according to Common Cause Wisconsin.
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https://t.co/jaePEMWAQc
 
D

Deleted member 1159

Unconfirmed Member
Carpe Carnim said:
Of all the fuckery and bad faith generated in 2010, nothing hurts my soul more than what the GOP has done to WI. I always looked towards my Cheesehead brothers and sisters for a glimmer of hope that our nation could be caring and sensible.





https://t.co/jaePEMWAQc
Click to expand...

How hard can it be to create new IDs in compliance? Not that they should have to, but fight fuckery with fuckery.
 
T

thebloo

Member
Barzul said:
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/790904200863617024

Powerful ad from the Hilary campaign. They found a woman that the Trump Org discriminated against when it came to renting. Got major feels from it. Might be because I'm black...don't know I think most people would get strong feelings from it too. It just really emphasizes how much progress we've made as a country and Trump wants to take us back. No way. Vote people.
Click to expand...

"As if he were some pet...dog"

Man, you can feel the anger in her words. It's not a race thing, it's a human thing. Fuck those guys.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Thaedolus said:
How hard can it be to create new IDs in compliance? Not that they should have to, but fight fuckery with fuckery.
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For a lot of people, very difficult. They usually cost money. Not everyone can afford $20 to get an ID card, or whatever it is. Even if they are free, they consistently make it hard to get them. Not everyone drives or has access to public transportation. (And the latter isn't free). Often these locations have shitty hours that people simply can't get to. My DMV isn't on the bus route. I'd have to walk about half a mile from the bus stop to get to it if I didn't have my fiance to drive me or whatever.

And, even if they're free and they have decent hours, not everyone has access to the documents you need to get an ID. Ohio requires a Social Security card and a birth certificate. It costs to get each of those, and a lot of them require you show up in person. When I had to get my ID, I had to go get an actual certified copy of my birth certificate. I had to drive 45 minutes to the health department where it was, because they wouldn't mail a copy to me. It also cost money.
 
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