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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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Hill could be coasting to a 5%+ victory in those states and I doubt they call all of them before 11.
This so much.
Is there a chance it can be fixed even with a Republican House and a Democratic Senate?
I hate the current House so much and all its gerrymandered bullshit. One HALF of one BRANCH of government blocking all 3 branches. Disgusts me.
User 463088
Banned
RIGHT!?
Grew up in Polk County. I know GOP will take the lead again, but man that makes me giddy.
RustyNails
Member
Did Upshot/Sienna release the internals of the NC poll? I am beginning to think the LV model for Republicans is collapsing due to all the rigging claims. ABC poll hinted this.
TestOfTide
Banned
Good. Chris Cuomo is much more enjoyable than Morning Joe.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Yea it's like +6 irrc
I don't think Bloomberg would want state.
Also joe Scarborough had a meltdown about Cheryl mills this morning so I would love that.
bangbang i'm a timpani
Banned
no ivanka? shes secretary of state free.
(also lets be real chief of staff is going to be huma)
Carpe Carnim
Member
Dat I-4 yo. If you can start cutting into the lead in and around The Villages (Sumter, Lake, etc.) we might be able to start fantasizing about 2020 and an actually sane redistricting. But that's a long way off, and Floriduh finds new and interesting way to disappoint me, constantly.
The further we get from a national television event with Hillary the more Trump will close the gap. Been like that all election. It's why I expect Hillary's odds to be around 75% come election day.
RustyNails
Member
Kerry needs to stick around for few more years as SoS. I dont think I've seen such a consequential and effective SoS in recent history. Saved Afghanisthan from another civil war, Iran nuclear deal, mideast talks, dealing with Russian/Ukraine crisis, putting together the anti ISIS coalition, and whole host of other things I am not remembering. He is really good at this.
I knew it. I hope the trend continues and Trump keeps up with rigging bullshit. Nice going orange moron.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Burr has been 'forced' to start humping Trump's leg. There has to be some terrifying internals for NC if his teams' best strategy seems to be circle the wagon and protect his share of the GOP vote. A wave in NC, if sustained, would be amazing. I am boycotting the state at the moment, but I really want to go back to Asheville soon. Dat Green Man and Wedge Breweries, yo
nature boy
Member
Man, that Steve Schale post is a huge shot of hopium.
User 463088
Banned
Well, this is just fundamentally not accurate. The main reason her numbers in 538 haven't gone up is, as per Bad Nate, they can't at this point. 2 weeks out, she's maximized where she is. Other models with less uncertainty continue to move in her favor.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The closer we get to the election, the more confident models get. If Hillary is 5-10% in basically every poll, all models will inch closer and closer to 100%.
Because you just don't gain 5-10% in 2 weeks right before the election.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This is what I wanted to see. Fantastic news.
RustyNails
Member
PantherLotus had that gif as his avatar and it drove gaf crazy. Its simple as that lol
Once upon a time that was an amusingly plausible story; keep up, Erik!
Now, though? For that to be true, he'd be committing massive character assassination on himself. Trump isn't going to walk away from this undamaged.
Cook Political report now predicting a Senate gain of +5 to +7 for Dems.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/10113
*squee*
http://cookpolitical.com/story/10113
*squee*
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Yup
Isn't IBD the one Trump was spewing bullshit about it being the most accurate poll ever?
I love the idea that an Evil Voting Machine would surreptitiously change your vote - and then tell you about it.
If you're going to make an Evil Voting Machine to modify votes, just do it in secret!
Spoiled Milk
Banned
IBD was widely recognized as the most accurate poll in the last three elections.
Yes, and if you read about it, they were the most accurate at the very end of the election, where their very wrong number mysteriously shot up to match the real number.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Sort of.
If we had known a while back that the win would have this much margin, more resources might have been spent on House seats, and better candidates (or any) might have run.
I still think there's a chance, given that the downside of gerrymandering is weakening even stronger seats to make more of them. But I think there was a lot of lost opportunity in that nobody thought it would even be close.
I wonder if you asked any of those people who Soros even is or what he does, would they have an answer?
Man can't wait till I naturalize so I can actually vote in these things. Still doing everything I can by donating and pushed all the people around me to register and vote. Those Florida numbers are looking great. If Murphy somehow beats Rubio, I think Obama might've single-handedly carried him across the finish line. Even with all the Trump BS that kept coming out I couldn't have envisioned that.
Carpe Carnim
Member
This election is teaching me that there is nothing the National GOP can endure, no stupidity they can muster, no horrific policy they can imagine that is not the fault of the Dems, or just bad PR.
Modern Conservatism cannot fail, it can only be failed. There will be no introspection, no 2016 autopsy; nothing will convince them that this election was anything other than a fluke.
Realizing your base is full of neoNazis, cranks, and oven-meme connoisseurs? "Third-party saboteurs!" You lost women by historic margins? "They all want to have third trimester abortions! We'll teach them, lovingly, why being a broodmare is in all of our interests!" Evidence that Latinxs views of your party have catered? "More fucking taco bowls!"
whyamihere
Banned
NYT/Siena, NC:
Hillary: 46
Trump: 39
Ross: 47
Burr: 46
Cooper: 51
McCrory: 45
Wow.
Early voters 61/36 for Hillary.
Hillary: 46
Trump: 39
Ross: 47
Burr: 46
Cooper: 51
McCrory: 45
Wow.
Early voters 61/36 for Hillary.
Carpe Carnim
Member
HALP! HALP! My erection has lasted longer than 4 hours!
gutter_trash
Banned
yeah, the GOP have worked it for 2010 with redraws to the point that Dems have to plan for 2020's redraw
Rachel Maddow had an interesting segment on redistricting last night,
Obama and Holder will get active on a plan for 2020's redraw
Fragamemnon
Member
Warren has made it clear that appointees are policy and unacceptable appointees will be handled in the same way unacceptable policy would be.
Obama's economic team was not the best in his first term but I give him a pass-he needed proven performers with access to help deal with the 08 meltdown. Hillary should be able to pick from a bigger pool.
Obama's economic team was not the best in his first term but I give him a pass-he needed proven performers with access to help deal with the 08 meltdown. Hillary should be able to pick from a bigger pool.
Dang the Senate race is so tight, is Burr the incumbent?
whyamihere
Banned
Burr is the Republican incumbent.
Beyond the awesome lead in the presidential number, this is more what I expect the final result to be. Tight in the Senate race and a decent margin for Cooper in the gubernatorial race.
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