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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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Dominican Power

Dominican Power

Member
gutter_trash said:
I agree with Bill Clinton and Harry Reid on this.

Rubio is a future threat, best sink him now and be done with it
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The same Rubio that couldn't beat the likes of Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Donald Trump? He didn't even win the primary in his own home state. He's nothing. He's nothing but an empty suit.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Plinko said:
Yes. Oh, yes.
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burns-excellent.gif

On to 50%!
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Fucking Schumer. Why the fuck is he spending any money at all on TV ads? Dump that money all into Murphy's race and let's put Rubitron down.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
We should probably listen to Bill and Reid when it comes to politics.
Click to expand...

Murphy is below 50% name recognition. 2 weeks of sustained, expensive ads in a saturated market ain't gonna change that.

Murphy will win or lose on the strength of Dem GOTV anyways. I would rather see that cash go to Ross and Kander where it could do some good. As much as I like Reid, I think this comes from a raging hate-boner for Rubio, rather than cold electoral calculations.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
gutter_trash said:
Nixon didn't disappear after 1960, he returned in 1968

Reagan didn't disappear after 1976, he returned in 1980
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Pat Buchanan didn't disappear after 1992, he...uh...

Well Mike Huckabee didn't disappear after 2008 he...uh...

Well Rick Perry didn't disappear after 2012 he..uh...he...oops.

FloydtheFathead said:
That gives me a small glimmer of hope if that reflects the Puerto Rican community at large.

If he loses this race... This would derail him even for running for Governor.. right?
Click to expand...

would you like a bigger glimmer?

It turned out that it did not take much persuasion to move the new Puerto Ricans into Clinton’s column. Latino Decisions, a polling firm that supplies her campaign with research on Hispanic public opinion, found Clinton winning 74 percent of the vote to Trump’s 17 percent, with an even larger margin among the subset of those born on the island. The island-born viewed Clinton more favorably, and Trump more unfavorably, than their mainland-born peers. And within both groups, only 11 percent of voters said the debt crisis was the most important issue to them, behind even “immigration or deportations”—even though as citizens those issues are unlikely to affect Puerto Rican families directly.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-25/florida-puerto-rican-immigrants-clinton

re: the bolded it's worth pointing out again that about a million PR's moved to florida between 2012 and 2016.

if LD is correct, Puerto Ricans specifically favor clinton 74 to 17- which is about where latinos are as a whole nationwide, outside of florida cubans.

Their strategy with that group is simply to mobilize them. turn out as many of them to the polls as possible. If they manage a successful GOTV effort, Rubio is completely fucked- and as we mentioned several times over the past couple of days, Latino early voting is up 99% over 2012.

Guess why.

the bloomberg article does mention that PR's are evenly split between Rubio and Murphy, but this is to be expected when Murphy has no name recognition. it's not really worth worrying about since in practice no one ticket splits.
 
H

Hooligan69

Member
Fragamemnon said:
colorado commies: how is Amendment 69 polling? Here and Now on NPR had a story on it today and I found both the for and against arguments interesting.

bird impacts from wind turbines are not very significant and easily mitigated by proper siting. Habitat loss due to other development, tall building impacts, and domestic cats kill orders of magnitude more songbirds per year.
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With all the derpy commercials I'm seeing daily, I fully expect it to die in a dumpster fire of epic proportions. The Koch bros and like PACs have gone full-on trying to defeat it. :(
 
T

TI82

Banned
Great video from GQ and Keith Olbermann addressed to people voting third party:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpDUz-D7aM8

Basically talking about how a vote not for Hillary is a vote from Trump and thus a vote for the end of democracy and this country. Third parties are getting talked to like they are serious candidates and falling apart lately and it's amazing.
 
M

MetalGearZed

Member
Yep, Santorum and Perry returned from their 2012 burial and ended up doing much worse this cycle. Rubio will most likely continue that pattern if he runs again. He suffered too much Trumpism
 
I

Iolo

Member
While I think Reid and Clinton have a point that we shouldn't abandon Florida, the argument that internal polls only have Murphy down by 5-10 is not very persuasive.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
This isn't a complaint, just an observation.

Thank fuck Trump is bad at this. While the Obamacare numbers aren't that bad when you understand them in context, the OPTICS aren't great. Someone who wasn't an imbecile could have owned a news cycle or two. Of course, he's fucking stupid, so he can't even fucking land a clean blow on a gift wrapped line of attack. Instead, Nightly News is talking about the video from 2008, and talking about his leaked audio tapes from his biography. It's just fucking ridiculous that this man child has made it to 70.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
adam387 said:
This isn't a complaint, just an observation.

Thank fuck Trump is bad at this. While the Obamacare numbers aren't that bad when you understand them in context, the OPTICS aren't great. Someone who wasn't an imbecile could have owned a news cycle or two. Of course, he's fucking stupid, so he can't even fucking land a clean blow on a gift wrapped line of attack. Instead, Nightly News is talking about the video from 2008, and talking about his leaked audio tapes from his biography. It's just fucking ridiculous that this man child has made it to 70.
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Seriously he fucked up an easy line of attack. Bill Clinton made a better case.

Trump said he provides healthcare for his employees. But then makes a statement today saying many of his employees use Obamacare and how it's bad. He's so fucking dumb.
 
K

kadotsu

Banned
adam387 said:
This isn't a complaint, just an observation.

Thank fuck Trump is bad at this. While the Obamacare numbers aren't that bad when you understand them in context, the OPTICS aren't great. Someone who wasn't an imbecile could have owned a news cycle or two. Of course, he's fucking stupid, so he can't even fucking land a clean blow on a gift wrapped line of attack. Instead, Nightly News is talking about the video from 2008, and talking about his leaked audio tapes from his biography. It's just fucking ridiculous that this man child has made it to 70.
Click to expand...

Let us also appreciate how fucking good Bill Clinton is at this. He gave Hillary a way to differentiate her view on the ACA by creating a "gaffe".
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
The more lucid partisans who can read trends and statistics are trying to let their base down very softly.

Pennsylvania has added 275,901 voters to the rolls from November 4, 2015 to present. Of those, 46.8% have registered as Democrats, while only 36% have registered as Republicans. Bear in mind that Democrats usually dominate in Pennsylvania voter registration, but some tend to vote Republican in elections. Still, in 2012, the split was 45/35, slightly narrower than what L2 sees in new registrations. The opportunity for this cycle was to improve the GOP’s numbers, which does not appear to have happened. Also, only 66.7% were white voters, below 2012’s turnout model of 78% white voters. Another 13.2% were of undetermined ethnicity, but Hispanics were confirmed at a higher rate (7.1%) than in the 2012 model (6%).
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In Florida, the news also doesn’t look terribly promising. L2 estimates that the state added 692,321 registered voters over the past year, with a Dem/Rep/Ind split of 33.4/28/35. That’s off from 2012’s 35/33 split in the last presidential election. Interestingly, while 18-29YOs make up a plurality of new registrants (as one might expect), that accounts for just 35.3% of all registrations, according to L2. The second-fastest-growing demo is the 50-69YO range, which accounts for 25.2% of all new registrations, about the same as the two demos between 30 and 49 years of age. That might help Trump, but another demo looks like particularly bad news: Hispanics make up 26.6% of all new registrations, far above their 17% share of the 2012 election turnout. Whites comprised 47.7% of new registrations, almost 20 points below their share of 2012’s turnout.

Unlike Pennsylvania, almost half (46%) of all new registrations came from an urban area
Click to expand...


http://hotair.com/archives/2016/10/25/data-mining-dems-leading-new-voter-registrations-pa-fl/
 
L

Loudninja

Member
adam387 said:
This isn't a complaint, just an observation.

Thank fuck Trump is bad at this. While the Obamacare numbers aren't that bad when you understand them in context, the OPTICS aren't great. Someone who wasn't an imbecile could have owned a news cycle or two. Of course, he's fucking stupid, so he can't even fucking land a clean blow on a gift wrapped line of attack. Instead, Nightly News is talking about the video from 2008, and talking about his leaked audio tapes from his biography. It's just fucking ridiculous that this man child has made it to 70.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure Romney did the same stuff messing up easy attacks.

Its hilarious.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Republicans don't seem to be buying into Murphymentum either. They're dumping $25M into last minute senate buys but staying out of Florida entirely

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/panicking-gop-makes-major-last-minute-senate-investment-230309
Click to expand...

to be fair there are other races where they're in a lot more trouble than florida. NC and MO should have been easy wins, but they are rapidly heading into "loss" territory there.

FL is a tough nut to crack, because so much of that market is spanish speaking, and ads are expensive as hell. Rubio's name recognition also can't really get much higher than it is- the primaries took care of that.

GOTV is going to mean more than trying to flood the air with ads at the last minute- but they don't have a GOTV infrastructure worth a damn there.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I find it bizarre that the Florida dems couldn't find somebody more appealing than Murphy.

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 7m7 minutes ago

Dem pollster Greenberg on new survey matching ABC's 12-pt lead: "a chance to translate Clinton's emerging landslide into wave down-ballot"
Click to expand...

Here's hoping.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Dominican Power said:
Olberman works for GQ? How the mighty have fallen.
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Well, it's a step down from MSBNC but definitely a step up from Current. God, that network was such a shitshow. I used to watch Olbermann religiously while he was on MSNBC, but once he went to Current, I only caught half of one episode during his whole tenure there.

GQ is definitely an improvement. Glad to see him back in the saddle.
 
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