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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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Once every two years (it switches party in mid terms) :p

if you think this is anything in the same league as "democrats not paying attention in midterms" I don't know what to tell you.

you're looking at red state democrats bothering to turn out in numbers sufficient enough to flip texas, and moderate republicans disgusted enough to say "fuck the party" in a PRESIDENTIAL year. Every year after this in TX/GA/SC you're looking at higher dem turnout than you have been, because suddenly their vote matters.

You're looking at latinos moving away from the GOP to the same degree black voters have- and that shit is VERY hard to reverse once you've been branded "the racist party."

there is no way the republicans recover from getting obliterated this badly at the presidential level in 2, 4, or 8 years. Their infrastructure and fundraising is going to be in shambles for a good long while.

You old enough to remember the Dixiecrats aren't you?

come on man, I'm not THAT old.
 
Ahhhhhh







I don't want to believe, but...

I have to post this. Just LOL. This whole election man. I'm not even sure how I'm going to celebrate on election night.

555.png
 

Slayven

Member
if you think this is anything in the same league as "democrats not paying attention in midterms" I don't know what to tell you.

you're looking at red state democrats bothering to turn out in numbers sufficient enough to flip texas, and moderate republicans disgusted enough to say "fuck the party" in a PRESIDENTIAL year. Every year after this in TX/GA/SC you're looking at higher dem turnout than you have been, because suddenly their vote matters.

You're looking at latinos moving away from the GOP to the same degree black voters have- and that shit is VERY hard to reverse once you've been branded "the racist party."

there is no way the republicans recover from getting obliterated this badly at the presidential level in 2, 4, or 8 years. Their infrastructure and fundraising is going to be in shambles for a good long while.



come on man, I'm not THAT old.

They will learn from the 2016 autopsy like they did with the 2008, and 2012 ones.
 
They will learn from the 2016 autopsy like they did with the 2008, and 2012 ones.

There's nothing to learn. the party isn't salvageable.

The leadership knows full well that doubling down on racism and evangelical bullshit will get them nowhere, but unfortunately the deplorables ALL vote in primaries, and will install their own ridiculous people and vote out the establishment if they get caught "not being conservative enough."

Those people don't believe in compromise, and DO believe in whack ass conspiracy theories. They ignore any media that isn't breitbart, rush, or fox news- so trying to talk sense into them via legitimate media channels is useless.

To fix the party you pretty much just have to let them have the "republican" name and start a moderate party elsewhere with the libertarians or something.
 
North Carolina to PayPal: Give us back the welcome gift

In response to PayPal canceling its expansion to North Carolina over a new law about who can use what bathrooms in public buildings the state has demanded the company return its welcome gift: a bowl.

PayPal has given back the handmade oak bowl that was made from an oak tree struck by lightning last year on the capital grounds and was meant for companies coming to North Carolina, N.C. Commerce Secretary John Skvarla told the Charlotte Observer.

“We reached out to them and said, ‘Give us the bowl back.’ That is a North Carolina artifact from the North Carolina state capitol made by North Carolina artisans for companies that are coming into North Carolina,” Skvarla said.

The state made about 340 bowls from the fallen oak.
 
There's nothing to learn. the party isn't salvageable.

The leadership knows full well that doubling down on racism and evangelical bullshit will get them nowhere, but unfortunately the deplorables ALL vote in primaries, and will install their own ridiculous people and vote out the establishment if they get caught "not being conservative enough."

Those people don't believe in compromise, and DO believe in whack ass conspiracy theories. They ignore any media that isn't breitbart, rush, or fox news- so trying to talk sense into them via legitimate media channels is useless.

To fix the party you pretty much just have to let them have the "republican" name and start a moderate party elsewhere with the libertarians or something.
They pretty much dug their own grave.
 

Slayven

Member
That is petty as fuck, I am sure one bowl will make up for the billions of lost dollars

There's nothing to learn. the party isn't salvageable.

The leadership knows full well that doubling down on racism and evangelical bullshit will get them nowhere, but unfortunately the deplorables ALL vote in primaries, and will install their own ridiculous people and vote out the establishment if they get caught "not being conservative enough."

Those people don't believe in compromise, and DO believe in whack ass conspiracy theories. They ignore any media that isn't breitbart, rush, or fox news- so trying to talk sense into them via legitimate media channels is useless.

To fix the party you pretty much just have to let them have the "republican" name and start a moderate party elsewhere with the libertarians or something.

Yeah their base has them by the balls, but on the other hand it isn't like Paul Ryan has a backbone or anything.
 
They pretty much dug their own grave.

they dug it back in the 80s, when they decided to go after the evangelical vote. those people are 30% of the republican base, and 50% of the primary electorate.

There's so many of them and they vote so frequently that the GOP is forced into doubling down on nonsense fights that damage them with everyone else, like the gay marriage business, creationism, sex ed in schools, etc etc
 

Retro

Member
The problem the Republicans have for 2020 is that even if they could get all the disparate groups kicking around the ol' circus tent to sit down and rationally sort out what went wrong, discuss how to fix it, and then actually act on it, so much of the party has been tainted by Trump that they'll never get off the ground. Elizabeth Warren's comments on Ayotte are basically the 2020 Democratic Party Playbook blueprints for all but a handful of candidates who stayed far away from the dumpster fire. All they have to do is look when a particular candidate endorsed Trump, see if / when the un-endorsed him, and just run down the list of despicable Trumpisms they gave silent consent to before stepping away (if they did at all). The Albatrosses come home to roost all by themselves.

And that's a pretty big if right there at the start. I don't think it's possible for the groups to reconcile with each other ever again, let alone in four years.
 

teiresias

Member
At this point I kinda want Hillary to win in a landslide but lose Ohio so I don't ever have to hear about Ohio again

At this point this is an election that tells the rest of the country if the electorate in your state is worth ever giving a crap about again.
 

Hazmat

Member
Ahhhhhh







I don't want to believe, but...

For people that don't know, Williamson is the very north end of Austin and then suburbs and stuff beyond that. I live right on the border with Travis and at least in my section we're just as liberal as the people across the street.
 
The problem the Republicans have for 2020 is that even if they could get all the disparate groups kicking around the ol' circus tent to sit down and rationally sort out what went wrong, discuss how to fix it, and then actually act on it, so much of the party has been tainted by Trump that they'll never get off the ground. Elizabeth Warren's comments on Ayotte are basically the 2020 Democratic Party Playbook blueprints for all but a handful of candidates who stayed far away from the dumpster fire. All they have to do is look when a particular candidate endorsed Trump, see if / when the un-endorsed him, and just run down the list of despicable Trumpisms they gave silent consent to before stepping away (if they did at all). The Albatrosses come home to roost all by themselves.

And that's a pretty big if right there at the start. I don't think it's possible for the groups to reconcile with each other ever again, let alone in four years.

Their 2020 Senate map is pretty favorable and most of those incumbents are in deep red states. Ayotte and the like are running in blue states in a landslide election for Democrats, that won't be much an issue in the 2020 Senate races. Cory Gardner will get burned by it, but I'm not sure it matters elsewhere except maybe for Thom Tillis. And I'm convinced that whoever wins the Presidential nomination will be someone who didn't run this year.
 

Pyrokai

Member
At this point this is an election that tells the rest of the country if the electorate in your state is worth ever giving a crap about again.

Here's my daily "Ohio will go blue" post. I still believe it.

I think the reason Trump is fairing better hwre than elsewhere is... Youngstown and Toledo. He somehow made huge strides in those two traditionally Democratic strongholds. Elsewhere, it seems like a typical election. Rural for GOP, cities for Dems. Which in itself is sad because Trump shouldn't be fairing decently anywhere.

Source: My ass.
 
At this point this is an election that tells the rest of the country if the electorate in your state is worth ever giving a crap about again.

50 years from now people in the midwest will be hanging their heads in shame, talking about how their parents and grandparents voted- like they do when they find out great uncle abner used to own slaves and shit.

 

Iolo

Member
50 years from now people in the midwest will be hanging their heads in shame, talking about how their parents and grandparents voted- like they do when they find out great uncle abner used to own slaves and shit.

That book cover is great. Hang on to it, it will get much use in the coming years.

Meanwhile.

People working on Trump's White House transition, which is led by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, have been asked by Trump to narrow down those efforts and refocus on the race, the sources, who asked not to be identified, said Tuesday.

They have, as a result, largely set aside efforts to identify candidates for key Cabinet positions, but are continuing work to fill lower-level jobs, such as Securities and Exchange Commission general counsel, that would allow Trump to begin basic work on his agenda if he won on Nov. 8, without worrying about winning political battles first.

Members of the transition team are also avoiding providing Trump with updates on the transition work to allow him and the campaign to focus the core of its efforts on improving his chances of winning the election, the sources said.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN12P2ZS
 
My employer's health care is going up 25% and I don't get a subsidy. So...that sucks.

Ours was going up so much at work, they had to downgrade us to a lower tier because they didn't want to force us to pay that much extra.

The only real difference is I went from a 75 dollar emergency room deductible, to a 250 dollar one. And some minor 5-10 changes to random other stuff.

This can't go on like this though. My employer prides itself on our good benefits, but the company literally cannot afford to continue to offer top-tier insurance forever. We're likely going to have to downgrade every year now until we have a crappy 5k deductible plan like my parents have.
 
My employer's health care is going up 25% and I don't get a subsidy. So...that sucks.

higher deductibles everywhere too. This isn't really the fault of Obamacare and it would have happened anyway to employer health plans. At least with the ACA we get a lot more people insured.

Core problem feels like the lack of cost containment.The fix for the ACA will likely be a multi-headed hydra of a bill, and while I'm OK with that it might be pretty hard to get through even a Dem House and Senate (Ryan's toolbags would happily watch people suffer for ideological gain and won't do anything about the ACA)
 
There are going to be some polls posted on 538 soon. They are from Remington Research Group. They are trash. If anyone bed wets, I will force you to drink whatever cocktail idea comes into my brain.

They have Trump ahead in Ohio, because he's TIED in Cleveland, and he's behind by 1 in Columbus. They have him getting at least 20% of the African American vote in each state they polled. Most states have him getting at least 30% of the Hispanic vote.

This is a republican pollster that worked for Ted Cruz.

Do not give into fear.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
There are going to be some polls posted on 538 soon. They are from Remington Research Group. They are trash. If anyone bed wets, I will force you to drink whatever cocktail idea comes into my brain.

They have Trump ahead in Ohio, because he's TIED in Cleveland, and he's behind by 1 in Columbus. They have him getting at least 20% of the African American vote in each state they polled. Most states have him getting at least 30% of the Hispanic vote.

This is a republican pollster that worked for Ted Cruz.

Do not give into fear.
I think those were posted to 538 earlier and they didn't really affect it much. Though the barage of shit polls (IPSOS, Google Surveys, Remington, Rass, etc.) have been chipping away at their model a tad.
 

Slayven

Member
There are going to be some polls posted on 538 soon. They are from Remington Research Group. They are trash. If anyone bed wets, I will force you to drink whatever cocktail idea comes into my brain.

They have Trump ahead in Ohio, because he's TIED in Cleveland, and he's behind by 1 in Columbus. They have him getting at least 20% of the African American vote in each state they polled. Most states have him getting at least 30% of the Hispanic vote.

This is a republican pollster that worked for Ted Cruz.

Do not give into fear.
In what universe?
10 million people have now voted. That's a little less than 8% of the 2012 electorate.

Good? Bad? compared to this time in 2012
 

jonjonaug

Member
There are going to be some polls posted on 538 soon. They are from Remington Research Group. They are trash. If anyone bed wets, I will force you to drink whatever cocktail idea comes into my brain.

They have Trump ahead in Ohio, because he's TIED in Cleveland, and he's behind by 1 in Columbus. They have him getting at least 20% of the African American vote in each state they polled. Most states have him getting at least 30% of the Hispanic vote.

This is a republican pollster that worked for Ted Cruz.

Do not give into fear.

I think they're already up?
 
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