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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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Manmademan
Member
no need to hope. It would take some pretty bizarre logic to come up with a scenario where clinton has a legitimate +12 LV lead and doesn't end up flipping the house.
Most analysts had a "house flip" scenario at 6-8 points of actual turnout. The most pessimistic (from kondik) I saw was +10.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Just be lucky Dems didn't run Charlie Crist...again
whyamihere
Banned
Sad!
Exactly. I actually don't think there are many people who would've been able to compete against Rubio.
Murphy was polling ahead all of the Republicans in the primary iirc before Rubio changed his mind about running at the last second.
Manmademan
Member
Rubio before the primary? no. AFTER the primary? probably a different story. Rubio got dragged up and down the stage by Chris Christie of all people and never recovered.
A skilled politician could have made mincemeat out of him in a debate, but Murphy isn't that guy.
Basileus777
Member
Senate debates don't mean shit. No one watches them and even the local stations/papers barely cover them.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Good points obviously but if there were real worries about losing FL because of low turnout the GOP could appeal to the base by running ads against Murphy supporting the evil Hillary Clinton's godless commie-nazi agenda or whatever. And north FL, where most of those voters are, isn't nearly as expensive as downstate.
Manmademan
Member
The debate itself? no. But score an attack that's potent enough, spread it around social media and that's how you get that job done.
or the local news outlets will do it for you.
it's a waste of money. Senate Races don't drive people to polls, presidential races do. The GOP needs to raise Rubio's profile enough to convince some voters- mostly cubans- to ticket split on his behalf when they're in the booth voting for clinton.
Attacking murphy is pointless. no one knows who he is, or anything about him. the vast majority of his votes are coming from people who are just hitting the "straight D" lever.
eBay Huckster
Member
basically if we're really looking at +12 or even +10, it's gonna take bizarrely high ticket-splitting across the country. and i'm not sure we're seeing much of that outside ohio.
whyamihere
Banned
I really don't believe that. What other Florida Democrat could've competed with this name recognition? And those debates would've mattered little -- no one watched. Unfortunately, there just were so many structural problems once Rubio jumped back in the race. Everyone is poo pooing Murphy, but like, I really don't think anyone would've done better.
"Rubio hates being a Senator" attacks just never landed. They tried!
eBay Huckster
Member
i mean, they could run ads and hold events in southern GA (which is even less expensive!) and get the same effect
Basileus777
Member
It'd take something truly out of the norm for a moment from a Senate debate to go viral, it's not something one could count on and even if it did it probably wouldn't move the race. Debate skills aren't Murphy's problem.
makingmusic476
Member
When I was in line to vote early today, I heard someone say they were writing in Justin Trudeau. :lol
Manmademan
Member
could be true. A SKILLED politician could do it- but I doubt we'd end up with another Christie/Rubio moment on stage in a senate debate.
I know very little about what politicians exist in Florida, I honestly couldn't say. You're probably right- murphy is about the best they could do.
but still, it's hard to think that had they KNOWN Rubio was going to jump back in, Murphy is who they would have made the strategic decision to go with.
BotoxAgent
Member
12 point lead but Ohio still a toss up. Sad. 🙁
Aaron Strife
Banned
Bill Nelson is probably the only Florida pol who could beat him on his own merits, and he already has the job.
whyamihere
Banned
Exactly.
Manmademan
Member
Yep. republicans are fucking demoralized EVERYWHERE. Even in Red States. this is a disaster.
Ohio may end up being the outlier not because it's full of ignorant Trumpkins, but because Portman is running such a good senate race that republicans there aren't being demoralized the same way republicans are elsewhere in the country. Everyone seems to have a positive opinion of him and want to turn out on election day.
That could keep moderate republicans from tuning out of the race and no longer being likely voters- which is the effect we're seeing elsewhere.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
It's certainly not a beautiful spring day, lol.
That fundraising news is hysterical for those wanting to watch the GOP burn down.
Millenials paint a pretty future for the GOP
Most educated generation, most diverse generation. The Generation following the Millennials will likely be worse for the GOP than this.
What fundraising news? I've been out most of the day.
Basileus777
Member
If it's a +12 margin on election day Ohio won't be a tossup.
Basileus777
Member
That result would just mean you'd hear about Ohio more.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
HanShotFirst
Member
Hillary's gonna win every Obama state plus Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Alaska, South Dakota, Montana, and Texas, but lose Ohio.
Manmademan
Member
Nah, remember what happened to missouri? used to be "the" bellwether state. Then it ended up going republican when the rest of the nation didn't...and no one cares about it anymore.
The media will all move on to NC or something if that ends up flipping.
lol what the hell?
Basileus777
Member
The Missouri transition happened in a different media environment. Ohio talk will not fade anytime soon. Hell, look at how much coverage PA gets.
He's either hoarding the cash for himself or he doesn't have enough to help. I mean he's stopping all fundraising. Dude knows it's over.
whyamihere
Banned
Ahhhhhh
I don't want to believe, but...
I don't want to believe, but...
Aaron Strife
Banned
As long as we hold Iowa.
I wonder if someone was planning to write in Rachel Notley to.
Manmademan
Member
PA is just bizarre. There's no reason to talk about it at all during election time yet they always do. It's as blue a state as everywhere else in the northeast.
Hell, it even went Kerry in 04.
Manmademan
Member
dont campaign finance laws say you can't do that?
oh wait...Trump is using his own companies to run his campaign to a large degree. He could spend it all on ten million copies of "the art of the deal" and pocket the revenue without much of an issue, probably.
Ohio is the Brandy of states "No republican has ever won the whitehouse without Ohio" = "Moesha"
Manmademan
Member
In it's own strange way this election is just as exciting as 2008.
How often do you just see the complete and utter annihilation of a party?
You should definitely post this in the OT thread about early voting in Texas
Once every two years (it switches party in mid terms)
You old enough to remember the Dixiecrats aren't you?
my name is ed
Banned
Travis County doing me proud 😢
Basileus777
Member
Dixiecrats died while the Democrats held the Presidency so it's not quite the same.
This is what's so tantalizing about Election Night. We don't have a solid idea of what the ceiling is. Between ground game disparity, polling variations, difference in split ticket voting trends from state to state, the not-easily-unquantified potential for disillusioned GOP voters to sit at home.. we might add 15 House seats, we might get 35. We might add 5 Senate seats, we might get 8.
So damn interesting..
newshinycd
Member
This is just what polling is showing right now, correct? I'm starting to wonder if that margin is going to be much bigger come election day. Hillary's campaign has a massive GOTV organization. Trump has essentially zero GOTV, and now he is cutting off money to the GOP. In addition to that, the GOP base is already demoralized while there is a lot of enthusiasm on the Democratic side.
LOL.
I know I just wanted to make a "Manmademan is old " joke
HanShotFirst
Member
If I'm reading this right, Democrats are about twice where they were in 2012 early voting in D majority counties?
EDIT: NVM I was reading it wrong.
Early voting is twice as high in Democratic counties only a third in Republican?
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