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[Joe Shlabotnik]

Were's the last two percent?

In our hearts.

Or, I can't math.

But 8-ish point win for Clinton, 4 or less for Johnson.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'll dial in my predictions later, but I'm confident Dems will take the Senate,and make scant gains in the House. It's gerrymandered to hell and back and I don't see any possible way it turns without redistricting reform. Not even in wave elections.

 

[lyrick]

Voted over lunch. +1 Hillary in SD (South Dakota was a mistake)

Spoiler

If I could I would redistrict the Dakotas from North and South into West and East, then in a 100% dick move I would rename East Dakota into West Minnesota, just to fuck with West Dakota.

 

[whyamihere]

PPP NY-19

Teachout (D): 44
Faso (R): 41

A race Dems NEED to win to take back the House.

Voted over lunch. +1 Hillary in SD (South Dakota was a mistake)

Spoiler

If I could I would redistrict the Dakotas from North and South into West and East, then in a 100% dick move I would rename East Dakota into West Minnesota, just to fuck with West Dakota.

West Minnesota would be a lovely swing state.

 

[Mac_Lane]

Rassss polled the NV senate race because KTNV-TV 13 Action News was stupid enough to pay them :

Heck losing in a Rass poll ? He's so done.

 

[Basileus777]

@daveweigel
I asked Cruz if there should be votes on Clinton court nominees if GOP holds Senate. He said there's plenty of precedent for <9 justices.

Of course.

 

[BiggNife]

Of course.

Dems not getting the Senate is highly unlikely at this point so that argument is moot.

 

[Regulus Tera]

53-38 is my election night prediction.
We take back the Senate and the House.
Murphy defeats Rubio.

Go big or go home.

So 101 percent of the electorate will vote?

Trump was right. Dead people are voting!

EDIT NEVER MIND CAN'T ADD LOL

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I'll dial in my predictions later, but I'm confident Dems will take the Senate,and make scant gains in the House. It's gerrymandered to hell and back and I don't see any possible way it turns without redistricting reform. Not even in wave elections.

It sounds like GOP is running ahead of Trump too, so that helps.

Only way Democrats make very good house gains (20 seats+) is if Trump stays below 40%.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Nate Cohn:

The first and only Upshot/Siena poll of Pennsylvania will be released tomorrow morning

 

[whyamihere]

AZ early voting data.

@Garrett_Archer
Here is the 8/26 chart by county with parties broken out.

(I'm assuming he meant 10/26)

 

[GhaleonEB]

Over 13m early votes recorded so far. I've seen the state by state early voting comparisons to 2012, anyone know how it's trending in aggregate?

Oregon reported 168,847 as of yesterday, nearly 10% of the vote for 2012. I'm curious if it's more front loaded, given how safe the state is.

 

[mo60]

AZ early voting data.

Republicans are barely leading so fare in early voting in AZ which is bad.

 

[Joeys_Rattata]

I have a random question.

Say November 8th is a nightmare scenario for the GOP and they end up losing the House. Also say the statehood measure passes in DC.

Is a simple majority in the house all that's needed to add DC as the 51st state? (I know the Senate would have to vote on it too). Or would it have to be something like 2/3rds of the House like an amendment would require?

 

[smurfx]

Oh man someone sledgehammered Trump's star on the Hollywood walk of fame.

they should give that star to mark cuban next.

 

[darkstar0155]

Agreed. Failure to respond effectively to the Swift Boat attacks is my single biggest complaint about Kerry.

What a lot of people ignore is that he also did a fair number of things right, including turning in three strong debate performances. Would I have loved a more charismatic candidate? Of course. But Kerry simply wasn't the disaster he's often made out to be. Just because a candidate loses the race doesn't mean they're a bad candidate.

And if memory serves me correctly, has an incumbent ever been voted out in the middle of a war period?

 

[User 463088]

https://twitter.com/WordsOfSarah/status/791313980128129024

Why does Tiffany have her purse? Oh my god. She just randomly shows up at Trump hotels and hopes that someone will be there, doesn't she? Ivanka is like "Father, the other Not Me is here. She wants to participate." And then they have to let her. But they don't take her to the nice rooms where she can put her purse. They're like "No, girl, keep your pocketbook, cause you ain't gonna be staying long...."

SAD

 

[BiggNife]

I'll dial in my predictions later, but I'm confident Dems will take the Senate,and make scant gains in the House. It's gerrymandered to hell and back and I don't see any possible way it turns without redistricting reform. Not even in wave elections.

Yeah, I agree with this. A lot of the talk of dems taking the house seems like wishful thinking (a known side effect of hopium) and not realisitic expectations.

Having said that, I'll take having a democratic Senate because at least that means Hillary's Supreme Court pick will go through.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Over 13m early votes recorded so far. I've seen the state by state early voting comparisons to 2012, anyone know how it's trending in aggregate?

Oregon reported 168,847 as of yesterday, nearly 10% of the vote for 2012. I'm curious if it's more front loaded, given how safe the state is.

I think Florida changed how it did early voting driving a big surge in it.

Also, people might be voting earlier so they can just be "done" with it.

 

[Syncytia]

AZ early voting data.



(I'm assuming he meant 10/26)

CNN says two thirds of voters in AZ voted before election day in 2012. Did not know that.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I have a random question.

Say November 8th is a nightmare scenario for the GOP and they end up losing the House. Also say the statehood measure passes in DC.

Is a simple majority in the house all that's needed to add DC as the 51st state? (I know the Senate would have to vote on it too). Or would it have to be something like 2/3rds of the House like an amendment would require?

I think 2/3rds are needed for new states.

I wouldn't mind seeing them added in pairs, with DC and PR being added at the same time. Both deserve to be states at this point.

 

[Extollere]

Redistricting will occur after the 2020 election.

So... gridlock until 2024 then? Assuming, of course, Democrats don't vote in the 2022 midterm.

 

[plagiarize]

Agreed. Failure to respond effectively to the Swift Boat attacks is my single biggest complaint about Kerry.

What a lot of people ignore is that he also did a fair number of things right, including turning in three strong debate performances. Would I have loved a more charismatic candidate? Of course. But Kerry simply wasn't the disaster he's often made out to be. Just because a candidate loses the race doesn't mean they're a bad candidate.

Co-signed. Kerry thought he could take the high road and just ignore the clearly baseless swift boat attacks, and it proved to be his undoing, but it's pretty harsh to make out he was terrible based on that one mistake.

I'm still mad that people couldn't see through that bullshit.

 

[djplaeskool]

Is a simple majority in the house all that's needed to add DC as the 51st state? (I know the Senate would have to vote on it too). Or would it have to be something like 2/3rds of the House like an amendment would require?

-Referendum affirmed by majority of citizens
-Adoption of government in compliance with the US Consitution
-Simple majority in both Senate and House
-Signed off by Prez

By no means an easy process.
Congress first gave Puerto Rico its blessings to draft a constitution and pursue statehood in the 1950s.

 

[whyamihere]

I think 2/3rds are needed for new states.

I wouldn't mind seeing them added in pairs, with DC and PR being added at the same time. Both deserve to be states at this point.

I believe it's just 50+1 in the H/S.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

I think 2/3rds are needed for new states.

I wouldn't mind seeing them added in pairs, with DC and PR being added at the same time. Both deserve to be states at this point.

GOP would go nuclear, knowing they would see 3-4 Liberal Senators added to the ranks. Ethnic vitriol would spill out, worse than we've seen this past year. We would get solid statistical data that 60% of the population didn't realize Boricua are already citizens. FUN!

 

[Christian]

The party of fiscal and personal responsibility, flushing millions of taxpayer dollars down the toilet on pointless investigations, while refusing to do their jobs when things don't go their way! Yaaaaaaaay! Is it too late to change my voter registration to Fingerlican 4 Lyfe?!

 

[TestOfTide]

I'll dial in my predictions later, but I'm confident Dems will take the Senate,and make scant gains in the House. It's gerrymandered to hell and back and I don't see any possible way it turns without redistricting reform. Not even in wave elections.

Normally I would agree, but we have all the right elements for it to flip:

- Civil War within the GOP
- Polls starting to show GOP with drastically lower voter enthusiasm than usual (Remember what that led to in 2006?)
- Data on early voting and absentee showing that Dems' GOTV is having lots of success in getting unlikely voters on our side to vote this election.
- Suburban are where we are seeing the biggest gains in support, meaning it's not just more votes in districts that already have Dems.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

GOP would go nuclear, knowing they would see 3-4 Liberal Senators added to the ranks. Ethnic vitriol would spill out, worse than we've seen this past year. We would get solid statistical data that 60% of the population didn't realize Boricua are already citizens. FUN!

They'd have no reason to support it at all. There would be no benefit to them being states for the GOP, and there'd be no punishment for being against it.

It'd be a nice 10 or so new blue reps and 4 new blue senators though!

 

[User 463088]

The party of fiscal and personal responsibility, flushing millions of taxpayer dollars down the toilet on pointless investigations, while refusing to do their jobs when things don't go their way! Yaaaaaaaay! Is it too late to change my voter registration to Fingerlican 4 Lyfe?!

Welcome to the 1990s..again

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Co-signed. Kerry thought he could take the high road and just ignore the clearly baseless swift boat attacks, and it proved to be his undoing, but it's pretty harsh to make out he was terrible based on that one mistake.

I'm still mad that people couldn't see through that bullshit.

That was an actually ingenious (but evil) campaign from Rove. Charged headfirst at Kerry's strengths and it worked.

 

[TestOfTide]

I think 2/3rds are needed for new states.

I wouldn't mind seeing them added in pairs, with DC and PR being added at the same time. Both deserve to be states at this point.

2/3rds of both houses of Congress AND 3/4s of states would have to ratify it, right?

 

[whyamihere]

Congrats, Ann Selzer. You've singlehandedly created the narrative that the race is tightening and causing panic all over.

2/3rds of both houses of Congress AND 3/4s of states would have to ratify it, right?

It's not a constitutional amendment.

 

[B-Dubs]

That was an actually ingenious (but evil) campaign from Rove. Charged headfirst at Kerry's strengths and it worked.

Rove is an evil asshole, but goddamn he's good at his job.

 

[BotoxAgent]

Normally I would agree, but we have all the right elements for it to flip:

- Civil War within the GOP
- Polls starting to show GOP with drastically lower voter enthusiasm than usual (Remember what that led to in 2006?)
- Data on early voting and absentee showing that Dems' GOTV is having lots of success in getting unlikely voters on our side to vote this election.
- Suburban are where we are seeing the biggest gains in support, meaning it's not just more votes in districts that already have Dems.

yes! I like ur thinking! I need more

 

[Atlagev]

Welcome to the 1990s..again

Hey, young Millennials! Ever wonder what it was *really* like to live through the '90s? Soon you won't have to!

 

[Boke1879]

Congrats, Ann Selzer. You've singlehandedly created the narrative that the race is tightening and causing panic all over.



It's not a constitutional amendment.

Who's panicked?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Who's panicked?

CNN has two stories on their homepage about Clinton's lead shrinking

r/politics was also in a panic this morning about it.

 

[whyamihere]

@danmericaCNN
Hillary Clinton's election night party will be at the Javits Convention Center in Manhattan, per @jmpalmieri.

Basically one E ride and a few blocks away from Trump Tower.

 

[mo60]

Interesting article about McMullin.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppi...-hes-literally?utm_term=.ufGG473NG#.kgddEXg5d

 

[GhaleonEB]

Normally I would agree, but we have all the right elements for it to flip:

- Civil War within the GOP
- Polls starting to show GOP with drastically lower voter enthusiasm than usual (Remember what that led to in 2006?)
- Data on early voting and absentee showing that Dems' GOTV is having lots of success in getting unlikely voters on our side to vote this election.
- Suburban are where we are seeing the biggest gains in support, meaning it's not just more votes in districts that already have Dems.

I'll set aside some hopium for the 8th, but this is like saying I have the ingredients to make a great souffle, and then expecting what I make to turn out edible. I still think it's very unlikely given districts Dems would need to flip. I'd love to be wrong, though. I just don't see it even with those factors.

 

[sazzy]

So does the redistricting happen by the current president in 2020, or the one (re)elected that year?

the census happens in 2020. after the census, congressional districts can be modified.

presidential election happens in 2020. generally, democrats do better with house seats in presidential year because more people come out to vote for the president, and also vote on down ballot races.

the house is responsible for the redistricting.

democrats ruled the house for 40 years straight, and it ended in late 1990s. if they don't take back the house in 2020, they won't be able to for another decade (provided the GOP stays intact as a party).

 

[whyamihere]

Who's panicked?

Besides cable news (I've been told) and r/politics?

https://twitter.com/morningmoneyben/status/791350310312763392

@morningmoneyben
Seems pretty clear the race is tightening nationally and in multiple states. Real shift or Rs coming home?

Is it?????

 

[B-Dubs]

Basically one E ride and a few blocks away from Trump Tower.

E to the 7, the 7 got extended so it drops you right there.

 

[NeoXChaos]

the census happens in 2020. after the census, congressional districts can be modified.

presidential election happens in 2020. generally, democrats do better with house seats in presidential year because more people come out to vote for the president, and also vote on down ballot races.

the house is responsible for the redistricting.

democrats ruled the house for 40 years straight, and it ended in late 1990s. if they don't take back the house in 2020, they won't be able to for another decade (provided the GOP stays intact as a party).

no. State legislatures are responsible for their state line maps and the congressional maps if they don't have an independent redistricting committee doing it for them.

 

[nature boy]

Besides cable news (I've been told) and r/politics?

https://twitter.com/morningmoneyben/status/791350310312763392



Is it?????

News networks are milking it to the last drop.

 

[sazzy]

no. State legislatures are responsible for their state line maps and the congressional maps if they don't have an independent redistricting committee doing it for them.

yep you're correct

 

[Zukkoyaki]

You can tell the news networks were desperate for some tight polls. It's funny to watch them focus on the Selzer poll while ignoring the other two Florida polls from the past 24 hours showing Clinton +3 and the three national polls today that went +6 +9 +9 Clinton. It's going to make the meltdown on election all the sweeter.

 

[HylianTom]

Where will Hillary's party be on Election Night?

Here - the Javits Center, NYC.

 

[Boke1879]

You can tell the news networks were desperate for some tight polls. It's funny to watch them focus on the Selzer poll while ignoring the other two Florida polls from the past 24 hours showing Clinton +3 and the three national polls today that went +6 +9 +9 Clinton. It's going to make the meltdown on election all the sweeter.

Yup. I understand why the media does it even though it's dishonest. The anchors are told to focus on this stuff even though they know the real deal.

Let them focus on this. Even the GOP knows they are fucked. It'll make Trump and his minions that much more salty come Election day