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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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Z

Zackat

Member
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Cons: I work in a building that has early voting and election day voting. So parking is always hard getting in at work.

Pros: Easy to go vote and can wait until line reduces....my wait continues.
Click to expand...

I went to vote earlier today and there was no line. People coming in and out always though. I live in a little suburb.
 
B

BiggNife

Member
This is interesting to look at because it's easy to forget just how hard John Kerry dropped the ball in 2004.

enten-affirmativeclinton-1-1.gif


Honestly surprised even Hillary polled better than him.
 
M

mclem

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
I always thought a politician simulator similar to that Devolver Digital mobile game, Reigns, would be a nifty game. Here's a quick summary of my ideas:

- Create a politician: Gender, party, personal beliefs (abortion and such)
- Have various demographics represented by little meters. How you build your character affects their starting point (Female = Higher female approval, Republican = Higher approval from big corporations)
- Vote yes or no on an assortment of various legislation. How you vote affects all of the demographics differently
- After a set amount of votes, the game aggregates your approval ratings with everything and will determine if you win reelection or not. Point of the game is to stay in Congress.
- If you don't get reelected, you "lose" and have to start a new character
Click to expand...

You are aware of The Political Machine, right? It seems to fit roughly what you're describing.

Edit: Also Democracy, to some extent.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
The rarely polled Montana, but from 10/3-10/10:

Trump: 43
Hillary: 27

Gov:

Bullock (D): 44
Gianforte (R): 32

House:

Zinke (R): 50
Juneau (D): 31
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
BiggNife said:
This is interesting to look at because it's easy to forget just how hard John Kerry dropped the ball in 2004.

Honestly surprised even Hillary polled better than him.
Click to expand...

Yes, why couldn't Kerry get the Democratic party to come together one year after the war in Iraq? Its not we're still fighting over it 12 years later or anything.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
I always thought a politician simulator similar to that Devolver Digital mobile game, Reigns, would be a nifty game. Here's a quick summary of my ideas:

- Create a politician: Gender, party, personal beliefs (abortion and such)
- Have various demographics represented by little meters. How you build your character affects their starting point (Female = Higher female approval, Republican = Higher approval from big corporations)
- Vote yes or no on an assortment of various legislation. How you vote affects all of the demographics differently
- After a set amount of votes, the game aggregates your approval ratings with everything and will determine if you win reelection or not. Point of the game is to stay in Congress.
- If you don't get reelected, you "lose" and have to start a new character
Click to expand...

The weighting of different aspects of the character would be super-fun to hash out on the development side.

What's the trade-off for choosing a candidate who's a minority? Higher favorables, but from a smaller pool of voters? Do you choose the region you're from, and thus have to mold your votes to conform to that demographic? Intriguing!
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Ralston's continued deep dive into why the NV GOP is fucked. Only 13 more days until I can unfollow him.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

The latest SOS update shows a statewide raw vote lead of 23,874 for the Democrats. (It was 21,000 in 2012 at this time, but there are 200,000 more voters, so very close in percentages.) The percentages are 46-35. So Democrats are almost 7 points above their registration, and Republicans are 2 points above. This is why registration matters, and why that huge Democratic push at the end of registration, including getting that extension of time after warning the SOS, mattered so much.

What to watch:

--Enthusiasm gap seems obvious so far. This will kill down-ballot Republicans if it continues.

--GOP candidates will need indies to win, and they will need them big league. No evidence they are getting them.

--Hispanic turnout seems high so far in key precincts.

--The Washoe numbers are key, and Dems doing well there. It’s no accident major GOP surrogates have been going there — Graham, McCain, Pence. They know.

--The GOP usually does better in the middle days of early voting in Clark, not winning but coming closer. Keep an eye out for that.

--The Clark firewall will kill Trump. Can Heck save himself even if it gets to 70,000-plus Democratic advantage? Doubtful.

The deep dive shows the wave still building — I’ve added the northern state Senate seat:

CD3: Registration is 37-35, Democratic. Dem lead is now 44-35, 3 point improvement for GOP over previous day. 6,524 raw-vote lead for Democrats. Still a lead that keeps getting bigger.

CD4: Registration is 44-29, Democratic, in Clark part of district, which is four-fifths plus of the vote. Dem lead is 51-31, so GOP picked up a point, but Dems still 5 points above registration advantage. Almost a 10,000 raw vote lead now. Don’t see how the rurals save Cresent Hardy.

SD5 (Woodhouse): Registration is 39-34, Democrats. Dem lead is 47-33, so GOP picks up 1 point overnight but still 9 points above registration difference. 1,755 raw vote lead. Real danger sign: Dem turnout is 22 percent and GOP turnout is 18 percent. Down-ballot bleeding sign? Joyce Woodhouse looking solid.

SD6 (Seaman-Cannizzaro): Registration is 41-34, Democrats. Dem lead is 49-33, same as after Monday and still 9 points above registration difference. 2,000 raw vote lead now. And GOP turnout is 4 points under Dem turnout.

SD15 (Gansert-Reese): Registration is 38-36, R. Dem lead is 45-37. Good Washoe day helped GOP play almost to a draw on Tuesday, but lead still 10 points above reg difference. 1,100 raw vote lead. Remember, this is one early not he GOP thought was a lock. It ain’t.

Brief glimpses at key Assembly districts, where Dem leads keep growing and some good GOP freshmen (and some bad ones) seem in big, big trouble. It would be a miracle now if the Assembly does not go Dem — the question might be how many seats will flip. Ten did the other way in 2014.

AD 9 (Gardner): D+850 votes (was 700)

AD 21 (Armstrong): D+900 votes (was 700)

AD 29 (Silberkraus): D+900 votes (was 800)

AD 35 (Jones): D+1,000 votes (was 800)
Click to expand...
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
So not only will Dems win the NV senate seat, CD 3 and CD4, they'll probably break the GOP trifecta and take back the state house and state senate.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
mclem said:
You are aware of The Political Machine, right? It seems to fit roughly what you're describing.

Edit: Also Democracy, to some extent.
Click to expand...

I haven't heard of either of those. I will look into them, thanks! ^_^

Carpe Carnim said:
The weighting of different aspects of the character would be super-fun to hash out on the development side.

What's the trade-off for choosing a candidate who's a minority? Higher favorables, but from a smaller pool of voters? Do you choose the region you're from, and thus have to mold your votes to conform to that demographic? Intriguing!
Click to expand...

Oh yes hashing out all of the details and numbers would be a significant task but if done well the end result would be super awesome to mess around with!
 
U

User 463088

Banned
subrock said:
didn't get an answer yesterday so I'll try again. Is this data actual vote counts or are they just based on exit polls/ voter counting?
Click to expand...
You can't actually release/count votes until election day. These are polling numbers. Some states also let us know the party breakdown of the people that vote. So, in Florida, we know how many Democrats, Republicans, Greens and NPA voters have voted. We can infer how they voted, but we can't get actual results until election day or through polling.
 
D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
So, if Clinton fails to get 50%+ then that's going to be the Republican narrative for four years, isn't it? That most Americans didn't vote for her?
 
P

Pastry

Banned
Dana Bash interviewing Trump: New poll shows you're leading in Florida, other swing states show it very close


lol god I can't stand her
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Pastry said:
Dana Bash interviewing Trump: New poll shows you're leading in Florida, other swing states show it very close


lol god I can't stand her
Click to expand...

they're humoring him

if they get too tough, he'll walk away like a baby crying

this is the first interview he's doing outside of fox for a long time

ratings ratings ratings
 
K

kadotsu

Banned
DrForester said:
So, if Clinton fails to get 50%+ then that's going to be the Republican narrative for four years, isn't it? That most Americans didn't vote for her?
Click to expand...

If it isn't that it will be "the most left democratic caucus in generations" that unfortunately will make any cooperation impossible. At some point the "reckless spending" will need to be stopped by refusal to increase the debt limit.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
I haven't heard of either of those. I will look into them, thanks! ^_^



Oh yes hashing out all of the details and numbers would be a significant task but if done well the end result would be super awesome to mess around with!
Click to expand...

If done correctly, with a useful, touch-friednly UI, that could be a great tool for middle/highschool Civics classes.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@realHarryEnten 56m56 minutes ago
@ForecasterEnten - But the silver lining for Democrats is that I saw some polls that they are likely going to win the House #tothemax

In reply to Nate Cohn
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@realHarryEnten 1h1 hour ago
@Nate_Cohn @nytimes I just some internals that solid Republican House districts in play now for Ds because of strong early voting
Click to expand...

EDIT: Fake Harry Enten. Don't believe
 
B

bananas

Banned
Most of the country has been keeping quiet and just watching for the past 18 months.

They're gonna tell Trump and the GOP to fuck right off on the 8th.
 
H

Hooligan69

Member
whyamihere said:
This is a pretty bad way to evaluate if something is going to pass, fwiw.
Click to expand...

I realize that, but I guess I base that on reading local subreddits and newspaper comment sections as well, all full of reality-bending communism-type comments. All anecdotal, but not giving me a good feeling. I still fully expect it to fail spectacularly, even though my wife and I voted for it.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
BiggNife said:
This is interesting to look at because it's easy to forget just how hard John Kerry dropped the ball in 2004.

Honestly surprised even Hillary polled better than him.
Click to expand...

I'll go ahead and play my usual role of PoliGAF's John Kerry Defense Force. Bush was a very polarizing president after the 9/11 effect wore off so I think it was pretty much inevitable that the 2004 election was going to be more of a referendum on him than anything else. This is a small data set to be working with, but in general you do tend to see especially high percentages of an incumbent's supporters voting "for their candidate" and their opponent's supporters voting "against the incumbent." 1992 doesn't really seem to fit that pattern. Perhaps Perot's strong third party run had something to do with that (or maybe my hypothesis is off). At the end of the day John Kerry was "generic Democrat" in many senses and he basically performed to expectations. I don't think he was a great candidate but I think he was better than, say, Dukakis or Gore.
 
M

mo60

Member
DrForester said:
So, if Clinton fails to get 50%+ then that's going to be the Republican narrative for four years, isn't it? That most Americans didn't vote for her?
Click to expand...

I think she gets to 50. Johnson probably won't get much past 5% if he does get above 5%. Trump will end up getting in the high 30's or low 40's while stein, mcmullin and etc don't crack 1% total probably.
 
P

Piecake

Member
trump-feminine-final-1png.png
Click to expand...

It’s not just a lazy stereotype that men and women speak differently. In fact, researchers who have sifted through thousands of language samples from men and women have identified clear statistical differences. Some of these differences are exactly what you’d expect—men are more likely to swear and use words that signal aggression, while women are more likely to use tentative language (words like maybe, seems or perhaps) and emotion-laden words (beautiful, despise). But other patterns are far from obvious. For example, contrary to the common stereotype that men can’t resist talking about themselves, women are heavier users than men of the pronoun “I” whereas the reverse is true for the pronoun “we”; women produce more common verbs (are, start, went) and auxiliary verbs (am, don’t, will), while men utter more articles (a, the) and prepositions (to, with, above); women use fewer long words than men when speaking or writing across a broad range of contexts.
Click to expand...

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/trump-feminine-speaking-style-214391
 
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