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[joebruin]

heck no

 

[mo60]

Thought experiment - if Romney ran this year, would he have won the primary?

No. He would have been destroyed by trump.

 

[Teggy]

Is this actually happening?

It's a Facebook event, so...maybe?

 

[User 463088]

Thought experiment - if Romney ran this year, would he have won the primary?

Oh god no.

 

[RustyNails]

I dont believe that there are enough motivated voters who think Trump is shit but continue to support their R senator. Like I dont think anyone would stand in line for an hour to vote for Heck and not vote for Trump.

 

[Iolo]

22% of LV have already voted....these numbers sense do not make. Any.

As of when?

The Marist polls were in the field from Oct 20-24, so a couple days ago.
I wonder how they are determining who voted already.

Mark Murray Verified account
‏@mmurraypolitics

Marist's LV model uses a probability scale to determine horserace score. A voter who already voted registers 100% on the probability scale

So I guess they are asking whether they voted? If so (and I'm just speculating) would their info from earlier polling days not be out of date?

 

[phisheep]

Thought experiment - if Romney ran this year, would he have won the primary?

No. We'd have had Loser Mitt along with Lyin' Ted and Little Marco.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

This year, Mitt Romney ran under the name Jeb! Bush.

 

[whyamihere]

I no longer believe the difference between Democrats and Republicans is an ideological divide on the role of government.

No. It's that when there's 9 good polls and 1 bad poll, Democrats have a laser focus on the bad poll and how everything is going to shit. And when there are 9 bad polls and 1 good poll, Republicans have a laser focus on the good poll and believe everything else is rigged.

 

[mo60]

Still think clintons winning by 6-7%, despite these tempting +10 polls coming out. Aggregates are around 6% don't think she'll double them even if LA Times IBD and Rasmussen are mucking everything up.

I think she's going to win by anywhere between 7 and 12 points at this point.I don't think anything in this race has changed much to prevent a result somewhere in that range from occurring on november 8th.

 

[TS-08]

Thought experiment - if Romney ran this year, would he have won the primary?

Think about how Trump humiliated the other viable candidates.

Now think about how he would do against the guy who lost to Obama in his re-election bid.

 

[jiggle]

And when there are 9 bad polls and 1 good poll, Republicans have a laser focus on the good poll and believe everything else is rigged.

Didn't D do that with Kerry Dud?

 

[sc0la]

Think about how Trump humiliated the other viable candidates.

Now think about how he would do against the guy who lost to Obama in his re-election bid.

Did this hypothetical Romney run and lose against Obama in 12'? If yes then he wouldn't have had a shot in hell.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Still can't believe Ohio and Iowa may go against the national vote share by 6+ percent.

 

[mo60]

Still can't believe Ohio and Iowa may go against the national vote share by 6+ percent.

They won't.

 

[User 463088]

The Marist poll has Trump getting 40% of the Hispanic vote.
By their own admission, they sampled way too many Hispanic men.

Also, Heck is winning Latinos in Nevada, against the potential first Latina Senator.

 

[eBay Huckster]

ohio won't, iowa might and i don't give a shit about it

 

[whyamihere]

lol Jon Ralston just told Chuck Todd the Nevada poll was shitty.

 

[Teggy]

Think about how Trump humiliated the other viable candidates.

Now think about how he would do against the guy who lost to Obama in his re-election bid.

Did this hypothetical Romney run and lose against Obama in 12'? If yes then he wouldn't have had a shot in hell.

No. We'd have had Loser Mitt along with Lyin' Ted and Little Marco.

They were showing Mitt on TV saying people asked him why he didn't run. My thought was, "what difference would that have made."


Also, this is the guy who lost to Ryan in the primary:

 

[kirblar]

I no longer believe the difference between Democrats and Republicans is an ideological divide on the role of government.

No. It's that when there's 9 good polls and 1 bad poll, Democrats have a laser focus on the bad poll and how everything is going to shit. And when there are 9 bad polls and 1 good poll, Republicans have a laser focus on the good poll and believe everything else is rigged.

Plenty of Dems were like that in the primaries tho.

Kerry/Bush was close, as was Gore/Bush. None of the 3 since have been.

 

[Qwerty710710]

That Nevada polls doesn't make sense I think. She's dominating in early vote numbers unless alot of democrats are voting republican which I doubt.

 

[Hindl]

Advises trades based on the political climate for the living.

Sounds pretty bad at his job if he just listens to CNN horserace narratives instead of doing actual analysis

Would that constitute as treason and sedition?

I'm just wondering if we would have an excuse to kick out a congressman and give his seat to the Democrat uncontested.

He's a former congressman so he's already out. He's a conservative talk radio host now

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I would say Ohio won't go Trump but isn't adam's mother making calls for Hillary?

 

[Piecake]

I no longer believe the difference between Democrats and Republicans is an ideological divide on the role of government.

No. It's that when there's 9 good polls and 1 bad poll, Democrats have a laser focus on the bad poll and how everything is going to shit. And when there are 9 bad polls and 1 good poll, Republicans have a laser focus on the good poll and believe everything else is rigged.

pessimists versus delusional conspiracy theorists

 

[Carpe Carnim]

The Marist poll has Trump getting 40% of the Hispanic vote.
By their own admission, they sampled way too many Hispanic men.

Also, Heck is winning Latinos in Nevada, against the potential first Latina Senator.

Might be a feasible voter file if 60% of Dem Hispanics already voted early...and you squint

 

[RustyNails]

There is no way Heck is leading the Latino vote in Nevada. Reid's Dem machine in Nevada would have had to fuck up in the highest order imaginable for that to happen.

 

[Iolo]

I checked this morning and there were 13 days of this left, I just checked again and there are still 13 days left.

 

[mo60]

They were showing Mitt on TV saying people asked him why he didn't run. My thought was, "what difference would that have made."


Also, this is the guy who lost to Ryan in the primary:

Does that guy even have a seat in the house? Why the hell would he challenge ryan after he got crushed by him in that primary.

 

[User 463088]

I would say Ohio won't go Trump but isn't adam's mother making calls for Hillary?

Yes, she is. She did an hour or two today, I think.

Might be a feasible voter file if 60% of Dem Hispanics already voted early...and you squint

The entire sample is insanely male. The weighted sample is 49 male/51 female. 2012 was 47 male / 53 female.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Yes, she is. She did an hour or two today, I think.

Well, there's still hope for Iowa, at least.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Yes, she is. She did an hour or two today, I think.

The entire sample is insanely male. The weighted sample is 49 male/51 female. 2012 was 47 male / 51 female.

LOL. What was the other 2% in 2012? Dogs of indeterminant gender?

 

[User 463088]

Well, there's still hope for Iowa, at least.

Well, she's not just calling Ohio. And, while I shit on her a lot, she's really, really thrown herself into this. She's so damn engaged. She's never given two shits about politics before, but she literally knows everyone in every campaign. She's really good at sticking to the script. (mostly).

 

[User 463088]

LOL. What was the other 2% in 2012? Dogs of indeterminant gender?

Should have been 53/47 in 2012. I fixed it. I had a dumb.

 

[whyamihere]

WI Dems are asking the DOJ to monitor the election in Wisconsin:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewi...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Democratic U.S. lawmakers from Wisconsin sent a letter to the Department of Justice Wednesday requesting that it deploy federal poll monitors to the state after reports that local officials were providing potential voters with inaccurate information about the state's voter ID law. The letter also raised concerns about "potential voter intimidation at polling places, particularly in light of recent, high-profile rhetoric that alleges 'election rigging.'"

"National figures have suggested that there is widespread voter fraud in our country and have encouraged private citizens to monitor voting behaviors of certain communities for potential misconduct," said the Democrats' letter, which was signed by Sen. Tammy Baldwin, and Reps. Gwen Moore, Ron Kind, and Mark Pocan.

The letter cited reports that voters who do not have the IDs required by the state's voter ID law were having trouble obtaining the free IDs the state was supposed to provide for them to vote. It specifically cited the misinformation being given to them by local officials that was at odds with a court ruling over the summer.

 

[SexyFish]

So when does Trump announce he's running for Speaker of the House?

Spoiler

Yes I listen to Keepin' it 1600.

 

[sc0la]

They were showing Mitt on TV saying people asked him why he didn't run. My thought was, "what difference would that have made."


Also, this is the guy who lost to Ryan in the primary:

Wait he is running for speaker and isn't even in the house? lmao
(Yes I know speaker can be anybody, but let's be real)

 

[Gattsu25]

Posted this elsewhere but Hillary's latest ad had me on the verge of tears.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/790904200863617024

 

[Joeytj]

Ok, so a lot of "shitty" polls today, some other great ones, but all of them against the backdrop of real and actual votes now being cast in many states.

Do pollster adjust their methodology to reflect what we are now seeing in states like FL, NV, NC and others? I mean, that Nevada poll from Marist is ridiculous. Early voting numbers are practically contradicting many of these pollsters now, and if projections are correct, up to 40% of votes in this election will be cast before Nov. 8, a record number.

How long before obvious outliers like Selzer's and others are discarded by the media right away after looking at early voting numbers? By next Monday we should get an even clearer picture of which pollsters were right, won't we?

EDIT: Huge jump for HIllary on FiveThirtyEight after that AP poll and others, she's back at above 86%. They haven't factored in the new NBC numbers though.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Sassy Trump is hilarious

 

[RustyNails]

I wonder what Trump's nickname for Romney would have been.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Should have been 53/47 in 2012. I fixed it. I had a dumb.

No worries. I don't even pay attention to polling out of NV and FL at this point. Seems that almost all pollsters can't handle the high rates of Latinxs, and seem to just be guessing. GOTV is the key, as always!

 

[User 463088]

Ok, so a lot of "shitty" polls today, some other great ones, but all of them against the backdrop of real and actual votes now being cast in many states.

Do pollster adjust their methodology to reflect what we are now seeing in states like FL, NV, NC and others? I mean, that Nevada poll from Marist is ridiculous. Early voting numbers are practically contradicting many of these pollsters now, and if projections are correct, up to 40% of votes in this election will be cast before Nov. 8, a record number.

How long before obvious outliers like Selzer's and others are discarded by the media right away after looking at early voting numbers? By next Monday we should get an even clearer picture of which pollsters were right, won't we?

You don't really change anything because of early voting. It;s just if you say you've already voted, you're 100% in the LV pool no matter what.

Today really hasn't been a bad day in polling for Hillary.

Nationally:

Hillary +15
Hillary +9
Hillary +9
Hillary +6

She got two good leads in NH, and a really fucked up poll in NV.

The Florida poll is just not right for a lot of reasons, but people love to focus on the one odd thing...

 

[Iolo]

I wonder what Trump's nickname for Romney would have been.

The Mormon

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I wonder what Trump's nickname for Romney would have been.

Same one we used:

 

[Cybit]

No worries. I don't even pay attention to polling out of NV and FL at this point. Seems that almost all pollsters can't handle the high rates of Latinxs, and seem to just be guessing. GOTV is the key, as always!

To be fair, even the campaigns are having a hell of a time even this late in the game.

 

[mo60]

To be fair, even the campaigns are having a hell of a time even this late in the game.

With internal polls or getting people to vote?

 

[NeoXChaos]

To be fair, even the campaigns are having a hell of a time even this late in the game.

I hope you give us one big fat dose of hopium on Monday Nov 7th.

 

[phisheep]

I really hope that the media roll out the wagon on headlines after the election and throw back at Trump all the epithets he has applied to other people through the campaign.

Lyin' Donald
Crooked Donald
Little Donald
Loser Donald
etc

Or even just keep referring to him as "Donald L Trump" because Loser is his middle name.

Childish I know.

 

[Dr. Worm]

Ok, so a lot of "shitty" polls today, some other great ones, but all of them against the backdrop of real and actual votes now being cast in many states.

Do pollster adjust their methodology to reflect what we are now seeing in states like FL, NV, NC and others? I mean, that Nevada poll from Marist is ridiculous. Early voting numbers are practically contradicting many of these pollsters now, and if projections are correct, up to 40% of votes in this election will be cast before Nov. 8, a record number.

How long before obvious outliers like Selzer's and others are discarded by the media right away after looking at early voting numbers? By next Monday we should get an even clearer picture of which pollsters were right, won't we?

EDIT: Huge jump for HIllary on FiveThirtyEight after that AP poll and others, she's back at above 86%. They haven't factored in the new NBC numbers though.

IIRC, the issue with using early voting in polling is that early voters are non-random; they can often skew Democratic, because of the reasons involved for doing so.

 

[whyamihere]

This is interesting, and I'll explain why!

https://www.buzzfeed.com/tarinipart...-down-ballot?utm_term=.jvB5pdN0gy#.fro6k7YlV4

After months of refraining from attacking Senate Republicans, in the the last few days, Clinton has hit Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey during an event in Pittsburgh, New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte in Manchester, and Sen. Marco Rubio while campaigning in South Florida for not standing up to Trump.

But Clinton still isn’t attacking all Senate Republicans. The decision to hit individual Republicans is more calculated. For example, in North Carolina over the weekend, Clinton gave Democrat Deborah Ross a shout-out but didn’t mention GOP Sen. Richard Burr.

“It always makes sense to advocate for the Democrat, and there are times where it makes sense to make a specific contrast with the Republican based on the state, the race, the particular candidates,” Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri told reporters on the flight to Florida ahead of a two-day swing through the battleground state.

Asked specifically about going after Toomey in Pennsylvania on Saturday, but not Burr in North Carolina a day later, Palmieri said: “Our calculation is that makes sense to do in Pennsylvania.”

“The argument against (Ayotte) is that she is essentially politically craven, politically motivated, supported Trump for all these terrible things, said he was a role model … then ran away,” the official said. “Part of what we’re trying to do is essentially send a message to both Trump supporters who are not aware that Kelly is running away from him and to reasonably-minded Republicans and independents who need to understand that she’s trying to have it both ways.”

Priorities will also likely be moving into other traditional battleground presidential states — including Nevada and North Carolina — that also have competitive Senate races. It could also invest in Florida, where Democratic outside groups have pulled out due to budget constraints. It’s unlikely that the group will go into red states with tight Senate races, where Clinton is not competing: Missouri and Indiana.

There's a very specific list of targets for Hillary, and I think a political calculation that Hillary will have to work with Ayotte and Toomey if she is president. So she's choosing to attack them even though she would have to work with them because she thinks the upside is that they are very beatable. On the other hand, she is NOT attacking Burr because that's a race where Ross is facing some headwinds, and because she'll have to work with Burr as president, it makes sense NOT to attack him but instead to talk up Ross.