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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
RustyNails said:
Mark Murray hinting that the new NBC/WSJ polls show Clinton still in double digits.

I have a question thats concerning though. Why is there a discrepancy between a double digit national lead vs closer than expected battleground polling (OH, IA, NC, FL mostly)? I remember the opposite case being true in 2012. Obama was down consistently in national polling but had healthy margins in OH and elsewhere.
Click to expand...

Running up margins in solidly blue states basically.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Blader said:
I think I'm going to donate to a handful of Senate candidates this weekend: Hassan, McGinty, Kander, Murphy, Ross, Masto. It'll be the first time I've ever donated to a campaign before :lol Granted, it'll probably only be like $10 per person...six races, that shit adds up!
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Hey, $10 helps man. $10 is enough to get a fuck ton of phone calls, a few doors knocked and help drive a few people to the polls. :)
 
phisheep

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
There's an article in the Washington Post here about a survey that more-or-less debunks the idea that there are "shy" trump voters - people who lie to pollsters but will vote Trump anyway. That's mildly interesting, since it goes against one of the claims of the Trump campaign.

But if you look at the underlying breakdown here there seems to be the exact opposite effect among strongly republican voters - about 7% caught lying to the pollsters by saying they will vote Trump, but intending to vote Hillary.

Now that's interesting.

EDIT: should just mention that it's not a statistically significant result at this level, but what the hell.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
RustyNails said:
But what does this tell us? In future do Democrats have to poll as well as Hillary nationally in order to have a slight advantage in FL/NC/OH? Because Hillary's national lead will not happen every 4 years.
Click to expand...

It's worrying for Ohio, but it's not anything new for the other two. If anything NC and Florida are trending bluer and her advantage in Florida is not slight by historical standards. I think you're forgetting how slim Obama's winning margins in Florida were.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
phisheep said:
There's an article in the Washington Post here about a survey that more-or-less debunks the idea that there are "shy" trump voters - people who lie to pollsters but will vote Trump anyway. That's mildly interesting, since it goes against one of the claims of the Trump campaign.

But if you look at the underlying breakdown here there seems to be the exact opposite effect among strongly republican voters - about 7% caught lying to the pollsters by saying they will vote Trump, but intending to vote Hillary.

Now that's interesting.

EDIT: should just mention that it's not a statistically significant result at this level, but what the hell.
Click to expand...

That 7% fits the narrative of wives whose husbands think they will vote for Trump.
 
C

CCS

Banned
phisheep said:
There's an article in the Washington Post here about a survey that more-or-less debunks the idea that there are "shy" trump voters - people who lie to pollsters but will vote Trump anyway. That's mildly interesting, since it goes against one of the claims of the Trump campaign.

But if you look at the underlying breakdown here there seems to be the exact opposite effect among strongly republican voters - about 7% caught lying to the pollsters by saying they will vote Trump, but intending to vote Hillary.

Now that's interesting.

EDIT: should just mention that it's not a statistically significant result at this level, but what the hell.
Click to expand...

Kinda thought this would be the case all along. If you're willing to vote for Trump after everything he's said and done, you're probably willing to admit to it.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
PR and DC should probably be states. But fuck, 50 is suck a perfect number and they are going to screw up our flag so bad.

Might be the worst arguments someone can make as to why certain places shouldn't get statehood but I'm going to stick by it anyway.
Click to expand...

Actually it could result in a cool looking star setup with an 8x3 Star Rectangle Intersecting a 3x9 Star Rectangle.

Just make sure the Christians don't make it look like a Christian Cross made of stars.
 
D

Dierce

Member
Im torn on this dumbass Florida poll. I know it is being used my the media, especially CNN to justify this narrative of a tossup.

Part of me considers that dangerous and deceitful when countless other surveys say the opposite. It maddens me to see this being used by orange turd supporters as a justification that he can still win.

On the other hand it might not be too bad to have a poll like this to keep potential Hillary supporters from thinking it is already won. I feel very conflicted about this.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
I think if you're still worrying at this point, you prob need to breathe, go out, and disengage for a week or so because you may be in too deep. You already know that polls will inevitably tighten up a bit, not everything will go perfectly and Trump and his cronies will say/do a bout a hundred or so upsetting things between now and election day.

But it's not worth worrying about at all. Do your best to vote yourselves, GOTV as much as you can and trust in that Obama/Clinton turnout machine to prevail.

Furthermore, this has been her 270 firewall for months. He's not upending this in two weeks.

yCGy5MW.png

TF4khLu.png


Yes, I know. We want strikingly-large mandates, we want the house and senate, we want those alt-righters to be completely embarrassed by a historical margin. But those are much tougher goals and may not go our way.

Regardless, my main point is stop consuming this stupid media. Stop engaging in the horserace. You're just wasting your energy on that bullshit and spend it doing your best to actually get her elected. (which I know many of you are already doing!)
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Dierce said:
Im torn on this dumbass Florida poll. I know it is being used my the media, especially CNN to justify this narrative of a tossup.

Part of me considers that dangerous and deceitful when countless other surveys say the opposite. It maddens me to see this being used by orange turd supporters as a justification that he can still win.

On the other hand it might not be too bad to have a poll like this to keep potential Hillary supporters from thinking it is already won. I feel very conflicted about this.
Click to expand...

There's no reason to think about any of this. Take Brinbe's advice.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Spork4000 said:
Figured I'd ask here. I've been told by some experts that the race is tightening and barring another bad week plus a meltdown for Trump it's turning into a toss up, what do you guys think?
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Anyone saying that the presidential race is a toss up is a fucking moron. Even at the height of our bed wetting phase in September, Hillary had almost double digit polling leads in PA, NH, CO, and VA which put her at 273. That hasn't changed at all. Even if Trump pulls the miracle of all miracles and flips FL, OH, IA, NV, and NC, he'd still lose.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Is that +15 again? Jfc lol. Obviously IBD's assumption to correct for party registration just won't work this year, which explains their outlier status.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
This election is secretly a test in how far ahead a presidential candidate can be and still inspire anxiety in PoliGAF posters
 
I

Iolo

Member
AP/GFK seems to be some kind of weird internet panel survey thing, but I guess it provides a nice counterweight to USC/LAT.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Literally if you average LAT/USC and AP/GFK, you get C+6. Not being a tracking poll of course, it will eventually fall off, unlike USC.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Spork4000 said:
What can I say, thus guy does this for a living g and who am I to argue with the "expert."
Click to expand...

He does financial advising for a living, not political analysis.


BTW, also noted on twitter that Trump tried to change the name of the Javits center in the past (to Trump) and was rejected, so he hates the place.
 
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