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[Joeytj]

You don't really change anything because of early voting. It;s just if you say you've already voted, you're 100% in the LV pool no matter what.

Today really hasn't been a bad day in polling for Hillary.

Nationally:

Hillary +15
Hillary +9
Hillary +9
Hillary +6

She got two good leads in NH, and a really fucked up poll in NV.

The Florida poll is just not right for a lot of reasons, but people love to focus on the one odd thing...

Oh, ok, so only likely voter screens become more accurate, is what you're saying?

Also, I meant "shitty" in terms of quality. I know those "bad" polls are outliers. I'm worried/frustrated that we haven't gotten that much traditionally quality polls this election, especially with less than two weeks to go.

 

[Fragamemnon]

I wonder what Trump's nickname for Romney would have been.

would have been calling him a loser right out of the gate.

talking up Ross in NC make some sense because there's that race hasn't had a fraction of the exposure that Trump/Clinton and McRory/Cooper have had. They did one debate no one watched and Burr has been low energy as possible to try to coast in.

 

[Cybit]

With internal polls or getting people to vote?

Little bit of both - so many cell phones, and voter excitement has been swinging around like crazy. I'm not gonna be too hard on pollsters this year...this year is weeeiiird.

I hope you give us one big fat dose of hopium on Monday Nov 7th.

 

[Black Mamba]

The poll showing Nevada tied is right in line with Hilary winning by 4-5. Their polls have also favored trump on nv all cycle.

Plus haven't changed a thing yet.

 

[Slayven]

Why is the news trying to build a narrative that there will be in fighting on the Democrats side?

 

[User 463088]

Oh, ok, so only likely voter screens become more accurate, is what you're saying?

Also, I meant "shitty" in terms of quality. I know those "bad" polls are outliers. I'm worried/frustrated that we haven't gotten that much traditionally quality polls this election, especially with less than two weeks to go.

I don't know that they get more accurate, exactly. Just that you might end up with people in the LV pool who wouldn't be in there if they hadn't already voted. But, I have no idea if that makes them more or less accurate. Logically, I would assume more....but I'm a dumb about some things.

 

[Valkyr Junkie]

Same one we used:

His better EP

 

[Slackerish]

Frank Thorp V ‏@frankthorp 35m35 minutes ago Washington, DC
Paul Nehlen, who lost to @SpeakerRyan in the WI-01 GOP primary by nearly 70 points, says he's now running for Speaker ==>

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/791389319663464448

 

[User 463088]

The poll showing Nevada tied is right in line with Hilary winning by 4-5. Their polls have also favored trump on nv all cycle.

Plus haven't changed a thing yet.

Oh no, that poll is just straight up fucked up. Like, it's just a mess. Trump is over performing Romney among Hispanic voters by 16 points. SIXTEEN POINTS. He's getting 40% of the Latino vote.

 

[nature boy]

Fox News poll +3 Clinton

PANIC

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Little bit of both - so many cell phones, and voter excitement has been swinging around like crazy. I'm not gonna be too hard on pollsters this year...this year is weeeiiird.

This is why I'm not all that concerned with polling in NV and FL. Lots of young, cell-phone only voters, who also happen to be highly mobile, and while Dem-leaning, register as NPA. It's a perfect storm of confusion and hit-n-miss polling. Coordinating the last 10 days of reminders to vote, and polling place information dissemination will be where efforts are focused with these voters, IMO

 

[Bowdz]

Fox News poll +3 Clinton

PANIC

FUCK!!!!!

Drop all of the oppo!

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Fox News poll +3 Clinton

PANIC

Game over!

 

[Boke1879]

Fox News poll +3 Clinton

PANIC

SHIT!

 

[B-Dubs]

FUCK!!!!!

Drop all of the oppo!

 

[Y2Kev]

Wow Hillary is losing Nevada now because systematic polling errors will cancel out all that early voting

lolo help

 

[RustyNails]

DROPPA OPPA

 

[Iolo]

I can't help. It's over.

 

[kadotsu]

Give it to me straight. How over is it?

 

[Pyrokai]

Why is the news trying to build a narrative that there will be in fighting on the Democrats side?

I don't know. We should ask FiveThirtyEight.....


Also this is very important:

https://youtu.be/sK5T7CLujoc

 

[Y2Kev]

Ugh no help from lolo

 

[SexyFish]

Give it to me straight. How over is it?

It is more done than Trump likes his steaks.


We're fucked.

 

[HylianTom]

Give it to me straight. How over is it?

As Dr John used to sing, "it's all over now."

 

[RustyNails]

Give it to me straight. How over is it?

Hillary pneumoniaghazi stumble over

 

[Bowdz]

Give it to me straight. How over is it?

We just lost it. Trump just won with a Clinton +3 poll from Fox. The world of men will fall. Osgiliath has been overrun.

 

[User 463088]

Wait.
No one is freaking the fuck out!?

 

[HanShotFirst]

Good job guys how could you let this happen?

 

[Y2Kev]

What was the actual result

 

[commedieu]

So trump just won?

 

[Chezzymann]

What was the actual result

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/26/fox-news-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-three-points.html

 

[Black Mamba]

So trump just won?

Trump's been president for 6 months now.

 

[Boke1879]

So trump just won?

Yup. Fuck November 8th. Trump just won on October the 26th! FUCK.

 

[8 X 11 Printer Paper]

So trump just won?

Yep, Trump just won his election for Prime Minister of Canada. This whole presidential bid has been a ploy!

 

[chefbags]

Give it to me straight. How over is it?

Donald Trump is

 

[whyamihere]

Really seems like today has something for everyone.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

The whiplash these polls are going to induce when they all swerve Left next week will be amazing.

Someone get Bill Mitchell a neck brace and a drool cup, he'll need help

 

[Y2Kev]

Oh Hillary is kinda flat and trump is up. That's kind of to be expected. She's lower in this survey than in most others.

 

[GutsOfThor]

Can't remember if I asked this before but how bad will this Obamacare shit hurt her if at all?

 

[commedieu]

Trump's been president for 6 months now.

Yup. Fuck November 8th. Trump just won on October the 26th! FUCK.

Yep, Trump just won his election for Prime Minister of Canada. This whole presidential bid has been a ploy!

What's the gist? Coworker just came in saying trump is ahead in a poll/easy voting in Florida..? I mean I'm sure there's more to it. But what's happening?

 

[Y2Kev]

Florida is closed. There are no more poll.

 

[Boke1879]

Can't remember if I asked this before but how bad will this Obamacare shit hurt her if at all?

IMO the emails and her passing out on 9/11 have more of an impact of hurting her. This doesn't move the needle imo.

 

[whyamihere]

Can't remember if I asked this before but how bad will this Obamacare shit hurt her if at all?

You're asking for something that's kind of impossible to discern from public polling. There's no way to know how much one specific variable, in this race especially, is moving voters one way or another without doing a deeper dive into some sort of panel to ask voters who used to support Clinton and now do no (or are not responding) why they rescinded their support. The campaign might have information like that, but that's not something we can really get from public polling.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Can't remember if I asked this before but how bad will this Obamacare shit hurt her if at all?

Not when people trust her more on healthcare.

 

[nature boy]

Can't remember if I asked this before but how bad will this Obamacare shit hurt her if at all?

She's done, Trump POTUS and Bill Mitchell Press Secretary

 

[tedtropy]

I come home to find CNN (or at least Wolf) really trying to push the "it's anyone's race!" narrative again. If the side effect is more panicked Democratic turnout, sure, why not. At this point I assume all Trumpettes have demanded their respective TV services strike the Clinton News Network from their plans.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

If it wasn't over before, it certainly is now, folks!

Intrepid journalist and truth-teller HAHA Goodman is now writing for the Daily Caller. Pack it up folks, we're dooooooomed

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I can't help. It's over.

 

[whyamihere]

Nate Bronze Age speaks, with emojis:

@NateSilver538
People are *reaallllly* pushing the "it's tightening!" narrative and 🍒 cherry-picking 🍒 a lot to do it.

‏@NateSilver538
I'm also on Team Uncertainty-Is-High-This-Year-And-Dems-Are-Way-Too-Complacent. But evidence for tightening is tenuous.

 

[blackw0lf]

Considering how the main thing that could hurt Hillary now is complacency, not sure how these tightening narratives are a bad thing.

 

[Grexeno]

Bad Nate is literally the only one on Team Uncertainty is High This Year