it is, but it's usually followed by the point you make. they mention how it could be bad for clinton, if trump was someone else.
so even a negative for Clinton gets turned into a negative for Trump. BIAS!!
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
- Thread starter aspiegamer
- Start date
- Status
it is, but it's usually followed by the point you make. they mention how it could be bad for clinton, if trump was someone else.
so even a negative for Clinton gets turned into a negative for Trump. BIAS!!
elvisaintdead
Member
More proof that it's impossible to satirize Trump, even Vic Berger gets outperformed by the real thing.
whyamihere
Banned
Hillary and Trump are both going to be in Cedar Rapids on Friday.
That is a rather un-nuanced reading. Yes, the environment Republicans created during the past twenty years allowed a candidate like Trump to exist. However, Trump has said literally hundreds of things that can and have sunk Republican candidates in the past, even in the recent past. So there must be a few things specific to this scenario that make Trump unique.
And one would have to conclude that Trumps ability to drown out his competitors media attention by normalizing increasingly crazy shit and viewers growing a tolerance to it is a component.
He is horrifyingly fascinating to watch from a historical perspective. I hate that part of me who cant look away.
The good thing is that these ridiculously bad texas polls for trump may actually encourage enough people to vote in texas to make it blue this time.
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
i think so. they had some fun with the first Texas+3 poll for a day. couple that with the early voting numbers we see in the major counties, and i think it could fill a segment of the hour shows.
If Clinton wins California and New York by 30% or so each, Illinois by close to 20%, Florida by a comfortable 5-6% margin and Texas is within low single digits for Trump (or... she wins it? whispers of a dream), that's a double digit national margin, or close to it. Those are the five most populous states. Not to mention she'll win other large states comfortably, like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia, Washington, and very likely North Carolina.
So can hilary win the south in this election if she manages to win or barely lose some southern states like TX,GA and etc while winning Virigina by an insane amount,winning NC and FL by a decent margin and doing amazing in some of the democratic held southern states. I remember seeing a poll a few months ago showing her leading in the south when she was doing really well in the south.
gotstrangepowers
Banned
I've never felt this energized as a Texan voter. It was cool to vote for Obama but I knew he'd lose. The Castros just announced a TX tour in the next week starting in San Antonio. C'mon Hispanic voters!
Black Mamba
Member
No, it's not.
Nobody cares about these ACA stories. Just like nobody cared about the unemployment stories in 2012.
Nobody makes decisions based on what's going on in this manner.
If ACA premiums are rising for people on the fence, then yes that may affect their vote. But not because they heard a story about it on cable news. It's because their pocket book is getting hit. They feel it directly.
These ACA stories are just something people in the political world like to talk about and imagine as having some importance so that what they're arguing about is seemingly important when it's not.
This was true of UE in 2012, too. All the haggling about "if only the UE rate wasn't reported as low as it was then Obama would be crushed" was dumb then, too. What mattered was whether voters were getting jobs or not. What the UE rate reported simply represents what was happening in the real world but the report itself doesn't affect anything.
So ACA premium raises can have an effect on voters. But the stories about it do not at all.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
2014 polls were more favorable to Democrats than the results. That's what I interpreted that statement was saying.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Basileus777
Member
Polarization explains most of this really. Trump won the primary because the Republican base largely liked and agreed with his nonsense and that base has stuck with him. The rest of those voting for him would vote for any Republican candidate. Trump has been sunk, the idea that he has been immune to damage is a misconception as every major scandal has damaged him in 2016. The guy has been hovering at the very floor of support for a major candidate for a reason.
Qwerty710710
a child left behind
Wow Georgia and Texas are going to be within a few points on election day, not bad.
User 463088
Banned
I think, like, we all need to take a step back for a second.
We live in a world in which Texas is closer than PA, VA, CO, NV or NH. This is not normal. While we're like "Meh, 3" this is a big freaking deal. We've not had a situation in which Dems are energized to take the state. It's never seemed possible. I'm not saying we're going to win it, but we have enthusiasm on our side. THat might make a difference
We live in a world in which Texas is closer than PA, VA, CO, NV or NH. This is not normal. While we're like "Meh, 3" this is a big freaking deal. We've not had a situation in which Dems are energized to take the state. It's never seemed possible. I'm not saying we're going to win it, but we have enthusiasm on our side. THat might make a difference
The good thing is there is no way Texas is equally close to Florida, so easier to discard Fl poll in media tomorrow. Because goddamn it their horserace desperation is so clear whenever a poll shows narrowing. Almost a sense of relief they dont have to state the obvious again for at least one 24 hour newscycle.
The thing with the South is that Republicans were already at their ceiling with white voters, as opposed to states like Iowa or Maine. If Clinton gains among white college educated voters that usually vote R with non-college educated voters not moving very much, and latino turnout is increased, along with some depressed Republican turnout, you'll see some surprising results in the south.
Holy shit..
https://twitter.com/TUSK81/status/791480634619285505/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
More proof that Yale is indeed the best Ivy league school.
https://twitter.com/TUSK81/status/791480634619285505/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
More proof that Yale is indeed the best Ivy league school.
Beer Monkey
Member
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Right now it looks like 7-8 states will be decided by <5% and 14-15 states with margins between 5% and 10%. 2012 had four <5% and eleven between 5-10%. 2008: six states <5% and nine states 5-10%.
I'm not sure yet whether Hillary will win by as much as Obama did in 2008, but she's looking to do better across more states than he did. Maine may be the only state Obama won by >10% in 2012 that Hillary doesn't win by that much.
I'm not sure yet whether Hillary will win by as much as Obama did in 2008, but she's looking to do better across more states than he did. Maine may be the only state Obama won by >10% in 2012 that Hillary doesn't win by that much.
I want to believe.
For the long term, this absolutely bodes well. I think a lot of us were hoping the Democrats would use Trump as a registration machine in future swing states like AZ, GA, and TX and it looks like they did just that. While I'm under no illusions about TX in 2020 being as close, I think the ground will have been laid for 2024 and beyond. Maybe this accelerated the trend by a cycle or two like Obama's NC win in 2008.
As for this cycle, I agree with Hylian (I think) that we really don't know where the ceiling for Clinton will be. There are so many positive variables that may or may not have been taken into account in the polling (massive registration of latinos, how large will the gender gap be, millennials breaking towards Hillary, the insane GOTV differential, and the sudden bandwagon effect of Clinton being a winner) that we ultimately don't know how great a night it will be. If everything breaks towards Clinton on the 8th, who knows how big a win it will be.
JetBlackPanda
Member
Holy shit @ that Chaffetz tweet. I won't endorse but I will vote for him?
Ooooook
Ooooook
The Lamonster
Member
He's always been scummy.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The upside of Jason Chaffetz impeaching Hillary 22 times over the next eight years is that we get to see Chaffetz get publicly owned over and over and over again for the next eight years.
sazzy
Member
lumpy meltdown over mcmuffin stealing utah from pussy grabber
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A1QHfNs8Dg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A1QHfNs8Dg
Anyone else mildly curious if we'll see something similar to what happened after Obama was elected, where people said "Well, we have a black president now, racism must be over!"? Are we going to wake up on November 9th to pundits saying "The glass ceiling is broken, sexism is over everybody! Rape culture doesn't exist anymore, we've got a chick in the Ovary Office, right?"
BlastProcessing
Member
That's pretty great. Sean is cracking up. Gonna be a long 12 days for that man.
Haha, he mad.
It never fails to crack me up when conservatives freak out over "radical Islamic terrorism" is not being terminology used by government officials. So petty and superficial.
RastaMentality
Banned
Hannity is gonna self combust on air november 9th. that monologue is gonna be must watch tv.
He said "you neverTrumper jerks. i've had it. that's also some unfinished business. november 9th i have a lot to say all about you"
shinra-bansho
Member
I didn't read the last five pages.
But...
FUCK!
But...
FUCK!
googleplex
Member
My god..... that was some quality shade thrown at Jill Stein.
RastaMentality
Banned
Now i really want McMullin to win Utah so Hannity's
meltdown is even worse.
meltdown is even worse.
That's not shade fam, but rather straight up darkness
SomeRandomWeirdGuy
Member
I love that all the shit these fuckers complain about is the way it is BECAUSE OF REPUBLICANS. Dilapidated education system? Hmm I wonder who wanted to reduce spending and so cut education funding.
EDIT: And by love I mean fucking despise. These guys are scum.
Ignorance = bliss. And Trump is good for the middle barn.
...I feel awful for writing that...
I don't know much about the Amish, but it strikes me that they'd react even worse to Pussygate than women.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
There are no Amish people in the U.S. outside of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. So... Add 10k to Trump's vote total for those three states I guess at best?
We can unskew the polls by adding .2% to Trump's vote total in Pennsylvania I guess by taking account the Amish vote.
He hath lost an Eighth.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
So what's the update on Paul Ryan?
Is he still fucking trumps chicken?
Is he still fucking trumps chicken?
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked