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[Deleted member 231381]

I'm surprised people are more worried about the House than the gubernatorial races. It will be close to impossible to turn the House blue given the current districting. Turning the House blue therefore isn't really a matter of House performance, but rather, a matter of Democrats being able to take control of redistricting again. That means winning gubernatorial races and key state legislature seats. Making sure Gregg, van Ostern, and Justice win is crucial.

 

[Chumly]

The "Clinton Foundation" line irritates me to no end. The Clinton Foundation does good Fucking work! How the fuck does building an "A" rated charity that has helped millions of people around the world be a negative?!

Media bias against Hillary Clinton and the democrats. It's a serious issue that needs to be addressed. Just because Donald trump has set the bar so fucking low that he just speeds right over it the media should not be creating fictional "bad press" against Clinton just for the sake of trying to be fair. The media coverage has seriously disgusted me this cycle.

 

[Barzul]

Real Talk:

The most likely scenario is that the Dems don't get the House. And that sucks.

My question: What is likely to happen with a Democratic Senate, Presidency, and Republican House? Is this just more obstruction? Can anything Clinton is proposing actually pass? I really, really need student loan reform and the ACA needs serious fixing.

What can we realistically expect? Nothing? I'm so worried. I hate Paul Ryan!

I think it really depends on how the Republican civil war ends tbh. That's where we really need to focus on, how it ends.

 

[plagiarize]

Real Talk:

The most likely scenario is that the Dems don't get the House. And that sucks.

My question: What is likely to happen with a Democratic Senate, Presidency, and Republican House? Is this just more obstruction? Can anything Clinton is proposing actually pass? I really, really need student loan reform and the ACA needs serious fixing.

What can we realistically expect? Nothing? I'm so worried. I hate Paul Ryan!

If we get the senate, we get the supreme court too, don't forget. That makes things a lot easier if you've got the executive branch and the senate, which is why the GOP are so freaked out about it.

We can realistically strike down a lot of the bullshit partisan 'voter ID' laws. We can realistically strike down citizen's united. We can realistically see precedent established preventing districting for partisan gain, (or for racist reasons, essentially the same thing).

These things won't give us the house in 2018, but they'll help lay ground work to claw more of it back.

If the house continue to just block block block they'll continue to lose seats, imho.

 

[Skiptastic]

Sabato updated race ratings with just 12 days to go. New Hampshire and Wisconsin moved from Lean D to Likely D putting Clinton at 272 just from Likely/Safe D states. No change in Senate. CA-21 and IN-9 moved from Likely R to Lean R, NV-3 from Tossup to Lean D. Missouri Governor moved Fromm Tossup to Lean D.

That one bums me out the most. I'm glad to see the movement, but disappointed it's still Lean R.

They guy running in IN-9 for the GOP is some rich kid from TN who moved there last year and spent millions of his own money with millions from his dad's Super PAC. I'm seeing his negative ads and I live on the north side of Indy, so it sucks because fuck that dude.

I would hope Yoder has a chance, and hopefully she can win that one.

 

[Pyrokai]

We had a GOP House and a Dem Senate/Presidency under Obama and they never passed anything. A bunch of bills made it out of the senate, only to die in the House because they either failed the vote, or were never even voted on in the first place due to the pedophile's rule.

Right, that's what I'm worried about! It just drives me crazy. I'm really hoping that maybe there are SOME Dem gains and enough Reps that would actually try and get some things passed, but it probably comes down to Paul Ryan. I'm not sure what pedophile's rule is, but if it has anything to do with the House being able to be too obstructionist, then ugh.........why?!

If we get the senate, we get the supreme court too, don't forget. That makes things a lot easier if you've got the executive branch and the senate, which is why the GOP are so freaked out about it.

We can realistically strike down a lot of the bullshit partisan 'voter ID' laws. We can realistically strike down citizen's united. We can realistically see precedent established preventing districting for partisan gain, (or for racist reasons, essentially the same thing).

These things won't give us the house in 2018, but they'll help lay ground work to claw more of it back.

If the house continue to just block block block they'll continue to lose seats, imho.

True, a lot of what you said is a great thing, but I still worry that the juiciest stuff Clinton wants will never happen, and that really, really sucks.

And yes, Dems need to focus much more on the state level. I am mildly optimistic about gerrymandering and redistricting, though, with a liberal SCOTUS and Obama's effort to push out Midterm votes post-presidency. I also think a lot of Republicans might be on board. After all, I think redistricting is partially to blame for the rise of Trump. Ohio has already fixed gerrymandering for its state districts, and is already working on the federal (House) districts, for example, and it is currently controlled by a GOP government.

 

[starmud]

Hmmm, Trump running very poorly in California - 28%!!

http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/...ps-numbers-dropping-into-uncharted-territory/

As noted on Twitter, the California GOP is the 3rd largest in the House. Time to break that piggy bank.

ANOTHER poll shows a small lead in Texas? Go for broke, Abuela.

Interestingly enough, for the first time since the primary trump TV ads began playing somewhat rarely here in LA/OC. if the house concern is so bad that they are trying to get trumps already small base motivated, yikes.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm surprised people are more worried about the House than the gubernatorial races. It will be close to impossible to turn the House blue given the current districting. Turning the House blue therefore isn't really a matter of House performance, but rather, a matter of Democrats being able to take control of redistricting again. That means winning gubernatorial races and key state legislature seats. Making sure Gregg, van Ostern, and Justice win is crucial.

People here are still worried about the presidential race.

 

[dramatis]

I was watching PBS Newshour videos on Youtube for some reason, and they have a pretty short bit on how Europe sees the US election.

Towards the end they talk to a Greek politician who was quite blunt about what she thought of Hillary lol

Also it seems worse in Greece with their far right. The clip directly before the Greek politician was of a news round table where the one of the males straight up threw his water at a woman he was arguing with and then proceeded to smack the lady next to him. It got way out of hand.

 

[User 463088]

So, one thing I wanted to point out. In that Texas poll that has Trump ahead by 3, he is getting 33% of the Latino vote. Hillary got 56% (Latinos make up about 24% of the electorate in this poll).

Latino Decisions just came out with a poll where they surveyed Latino voters in Texas. They have it at 68/18. If Latino Decisions is right.....Trump's 3 point lead is not a lead at all.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7414/7749/1749/NALEO_State_Poll_Results.pdf

 

[Aaron Strife]

So, one thing I wanted to point out. In that Texas poll that has Trump ahead by 3, he is getting 33% of the Latino vote. Hillary got 56% (Latinos make up about 24% of the electorate in this poll).

Latino Decisions just came out with a poll where they surveyed Latino voters in Texas. They have it at 68/18. If Latino Decisions is right.....Trump's 3 point lead is not a lead at all.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7414/7749/1749/NALEO_State_Poll_Results.pdf

When is a lead not a lead

When it's trump and that orange fucker is going dowwwwwwn

 

[Wilsongt]

Right now I couldn't care less about the presidential numbers. I care more about the senate. Democrats definitely need to gain some control over it or else we're fucked for the next two years.

 

[RustyNails]

Abi ki baar Trump Sarkaar

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

Oh boy. Yet again Trump brings up Khan being alive if he was President in the interview with Stephanopolous this morning. What an idiot.

 

[Ecotic]

I hope gerrymandering can be declared unconstitutional and Democrats can regain the House with a good 2020 election. Democrats won the aggregate popular vote in the House races in 2012 and didn't win the House and that could easily happen this time. So it's possible with a landmark Supreme Court decision.

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

People here are still worried about the presidential race.

I'm one of them lol.

 

[User 463088]

People here are still worried about the presidential race.

Why what have you heard?
FUCK

 

[Zukkoyaki]

So today in why 538's model is dumb and makes no sense...

The following polls were added and according to their model it hurt Clinton's chances (no ABC in there yet):

+7 - PA Sienna
+7 - MI Epic MRA
+4 - FL Northern Florida
+5 - NH WBZ-UM
+9 - National CNBC (They listed this as NBC/WSJ even though it clearly isn't the same poll and uses widely different methodology)
+2 - IBD (Trendz!)
-1 - LA Times

I know, I know, TRENDZ and UNCERTAINTY and all that noise.

 

[newshinycd]

So, one thing I wanted to point out. In that Texas poll that has Trump ahead by 3, he is getting 33% of the Latino vote. Hillary got 56% (Latinos make up about 24% of the electorate in this poll).

Latino Decisions just came out with a poll where they surveyed Latino voters in Texas. They have it at 68/18. If Latino Decisions is right.....Trump's 3 point lead is not a lead at all.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7414/7749/1749/NALEO_State_Poll_Results.pdf

18% still seems a bit high, though.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Abi ki baar Trump Sarkaar

I LOVE THE HINDUS

I LOVE INDIA

*Bollywood Music*

 

[BotoxAgent]

yeah, I'm not worried about Hillary winning anymore. All I care about is the Senate and the House.

With that said......FUCK!!

 

[User 463088]

18% still seems a bit high, though.

I mean rationally, yes, but historically 18% is just abysmal. Romney got 39% in Florida, 24% in Nevada and North Carolina, and probably mid to upper 30s in Texas.

 

[Got the Shakes]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/791625798792974336

Someone is feeling the heat in Texas and he's also laying more groundwork for his rigged election claims. I can't wait until this damn election is over.

 

[Bowdz]

So, one thing I wanted to point out. In that Texas poll that has Trump ahead by 3, he is getting 33% of the Latino vote. Hillary got 56% (Latinos make up about 24% of the electorate in this poll).

Latino Decisions just came out with a poll where they surveyed Latino voters in Texas. They have it at 68/18. If Latino Decisions is right.....Trump's 3 point lead is not a lead at all.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7414/7749/1749/NALEO_State_Poll_Results.pdf

Excelente...

 

[witness]

So, one thing I wanted to point out. In that Texas poll that has Trump ahead by 3, he is getting 33% of the Latino vote. Hillary got 56% (Latinos make up about 24% of the electorate in this poll).

Latino Decisions just came out with a poll where they surveyed Latino voters in Texas. They have it at 68/18. If Latino Decisions is right.....Trump's 3 point lead is not a lead at all.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7414/7749/1749/NALEO_State_Poll_Results.pdf

Jesus Christ, the fucking total meltdowns that the Republicans would have over losing their conservative Mecca to Hillary Clinton of all people would make all the BS that happened totally worth it.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I hope gerrymandering can be declared unconstitutional and Democrats can regain the House with a good 2020 election. Democrats won the aggregate popular vote in the House races in 2012 and didn't win the House and that could easily happen this time. So it's possible with a landmark Supreme Court decision.

Under what grounds could the Supreme Court possibly declare it unconstitutional? Unless they basically used Section II of the Voting Rights Act as a crowbar to blow the whole system open, which would be an almost unprecedented use of judicial power, I don't really see what they can do.

 

[Laevateinn]

Abi ki baar Trump Sarkaar

All of my team is Indian and they thought that was hilarious.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Under what grounds could the Supreme Court possibly declare it unconstitutional? Unless they basically used Section II of the Voting Rights Act as a crowbar to blow the whole system open, which would be an almost unprecedented use of judicial power, I don't really see what they can do.

It's pretty clearly racially based. There are some maps that are blatantly drawn around minority communities.

 

[NeoXChaos]

It's pretty clearly racially based. There are some maps that are blatantly drawn around minority communities.

but would such a ruling be able to strike down the whole thing for state and federal lines?What would they enforce suggest in such a ruling? Could they enforce non-partisan commissions in every state?

 

[jtb]

So today in why 538's model is dumb and makes no sense...

The following polls were added and according to their model it hurt Clinton's chances (no ABC in there yet):

+7 - PA Sienna
+7 - MI Epic MRA
+4 - FL Northern Florida
+5 - NH WBZ-UM
+9 - National CNBC (They listed this as NBC/WSJ even though it clearly isn't the same poll and uses widely different methodology)
+2 - IBD (Trendz!)
-1 - LA Times

I know, I know, TRENDZ and UNCERTAINTY and all that noise.

Seriously. Isn't the model supposed to get more confident the closer we get to election day? There's no more events that can change the dynamics of the race! Get those clickz I guess

(I do wonder just how obscene the traffic to 538 is during this season)

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Seriously. Isn't the model supposed to get more confident the closer we get to election day? There's no more events that can change the dynamics of the race! Get those clickz I guess

(I do wonder just how obscene the traffic to 538 is during this season)

The model went from 85.4% to 84.7% and you're complaining that it is too uncertain?

The Nate hate in this thread is crazy, it's like a religion.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

but would such a ruling be able to strike down the whole thing for state and federal lines?What would they enforce suggest in such a ruling? Could they enforce non-partisan commissions in every state?

Yeah, basically this. I don't doubt that a willing Supreme Court could adjust things, but to make any real difference, they'd have to interpret Section II in such a specific manner that it effectively forbid anything except non-partisan commissions. I think that would be such a specific interpretations that even quite liberal judges would blanch at the prospect. I don't think the Supreme Court is going to be a solution to gerrymandering; I think it's a battle that has to be fought at state level.

 

[Holmes]

I feel some sort of twisted happiness seeing Republicans whine about long lines and voter fraud in a state completely run by Republicans because they might lose it.

 

[Barzul]

I'm sitting in a Starbucks in FL listening to Trump supporters, this shit is crazy. They're all older, white and male (just thought I'd mention). Trash talking Hilary, Bill, Barack, Pelosi etc. Saying how crazy it is that anyone can be a Democrat and bringing up rally size. Saying Tim Kaine only had 35 people in a rally the other day and that Trump had 30,000 lol. No idea if the Tim Kaine thing is even true.

EDIT: They're trashing LBJ and his social policies how it was the beginning of the end loool. LBJ signed the civil rights act right? This is surreal. They think I have my headphones in.

 

[Slayven]

Jesus Christ, the fucking total meltdowns that the Republicans would have over losing their conservative Mecca to Hillary Clinton of all people would make all the BS that happened totally worth it.

Preview of Paul Ryan if they lose Texas and Utah

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUWgE0EVQ9c

 

[Y2Kev]

The model went from 85.4% to 84.7% and you're complaining that it is too uncertain?

The Nate hate in this thread is crazy, it's like a religion.

Every day of early voting should reduce the chance of systemic polling error and Nate should make Clinton a 100% favorite NOW

 

[Zukkoyaki]

The model went from 85.4% to 84.7% and you're complaining that it is too uncertain?

The Nate hate in this thread is crazy, it's like a religion.

Admittedly we do hate in Silver too much here but I think a lot of it is people hamming things up.

Though it is bizarre that he seems to think Clinton's 6-7 point lead in the polls is about as safe or less than Obama's 1-2 point lead in the polls.

 

[Hylianhero777]

I'm sitting in a Starbucks in FL listening to Trump supporters, this shit is crazy. They're all older, white and male (just thought I'd mention). Trash talking Hilary, Bill, Barack, Pelosi etc. Saying how crazy it is that anyone can be a Democrat and bringing up rally size. Saying Tim Kaine only had 35 people in a rally the other day and that Trump had 30,000 lol. No idea if the Tim Kaine thing is even true.

EDIT: They're trashing LBJ and his social policies how it was the beginning of the end loool. LBJ signed the civil rights act right? This is surreal. They think I have my headphones in.

Just walk up to them after you're done there and say "I'm happy people like you are going to lose" and leave. Call them out on their bullshit.

 

[shiba5]

cnn is going to get a lot of hate for this slide lol

Why is it always "lewd comments" and not him describing how he sexually ASSAULTS women?! This shit burns me the fuck up. This is the only reason I wanted more oppo - because the fucking media lets him handwave this crime away as boys will be boys. FUCK!!

And Clinton Foundation shouldn't be on there either.

 

[dramatis]

Preview of Paul Ryan if they lose Texas and Utah

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUWgE0EVQ9c

You know, this might be the reason why people with talent generally don't get into politics, because for all the claims of getting rich and corruption and whatnot, it seems like a thankless job for 90% of the time.

Paul Ryan had presidential ambitions, I'm sure. Those ambitions are super dead.

 

[Barzul]

Just walk up to them after you're done there and say "I'm happy people like you are going to lose" and leave. Call them out on their bullshit.

You know what I just might if I leave before they do...I'm typically non-confrontational too, but hearing the LBJ thing had me like whoa..

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Admittedly we do hate in Silver too much here but I think a lot of it is people hamming things up.

Though it is bizarre that he seems to think Clinton's 6-7 point lead in the polls is about as safe or less than Obama's 1-2 point lead in the polls.

But he doesn't. Looking at what his forecast was predicting on 27th Oct 2012, he had it as Obama 73.6%, Romney 26.4%. So, he has Clinton about 11 percentage points more likely to win than Obama at the same stage. That seems pretty fair to me.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

But he doesn't. Looking at what his forecast was predicting on 27th Oct 2012, he had it as Obama 73.6%, Romney 26.4%. So, he has Clinton about 11 percentage points more likely to win than Obama at the same stage.

... You win haha

 

[Nairume]

No idea if the Tim Kaine thing is even true.

If I remember right, the Kaine thing stemmed from a picture of him going out and greeting people at an overflow area for a packed event that he was at. And you could see in that picture that there was clearly vastly more than just 35 people in said overflow.

 

[Bowdz]

Goddamn, CNN is going hard on the race tightening narrative today. Everyone glosses over the fact that their own fucking map has Clinton at 272 with their own lean/safe states and dives right into "Well, Trump's nipping at her heels and he could really put this thing away" diatribes. I expect this sort of behavior from the surrogates, but hearing it from Bergen is just sad.

 

[Officerrob]

Goddamn, CNN is going hard on the race tightening narrative today. Everyone glosses over the fact that their own fucking map has Clinton at 272 with their own lean/safe states and dives right into "Well, Trump's nipping at her heels and he could really put this thing away" diatribes. I expect this sort of behavior from the surrogates, but hearing it from Bergen is just sad.

The narrative that Trump is going to lose bigly was never going to stick for two weeks, they gotta change things up to keep viewers

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I'm surprised people are more worried about the House than the gubernatorial races. It will be close to impossible to turn the House blue given the current districting. Turning the House blue therefore isn't really a matter of House performance, but rather, a matter of Democrats being able to take control of redistricting again. That means winning gubernatorial races and key state legislature seats. Making sure Gregg, van Ostern, and Justice win is crucial.

Redistricting won't happen till 2021-2022 they'll all have to win reelection and van ostern has to win twice NH is 2 years and has an Executive council which limits power and I believe is GOP held

 

[Slayven]

Goddamn, CNN is going hard on the race tightening narrative today. Everyone glosses over the fact that their own fucking map has Clinton at 272 with their own lean/safe states and dives right into "Well, Trump's nipping at her heels and he could really put this thing away" diatribes. I expect this sort of behavior from the surrogates, but hearing it from Bergen is just sad.

Yeah the word from high must have came down hard. Funny you can tell who is down with it and who is merely paying lipservice

 

[Paches]

Redistricting won't happen till 2011-2012

We must go back.

 

[RustyNails]

I love the CNBC poll more than any other poll in these past few weeks. Because it has Trump at 34% (!). His floor has collapsed, according to the poll. Clinton's floor is still a healthy 43+.