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[BobTheFork]

Watch us win the house but not the Senate.

Getting both was never possible IMO. Be happy with the house, if that

 

[Joeytj]

Ahh... there's a Stronger Together Broadway for Hillary live show on her Facebook right now.

What? Right now, it's Billy Crystal doing political stand-up in front of an audience.

 

[Paches]

Randy stealing the election

 

[HanShotFirst]

Watch us win the house but not the Senate.

We're going to win the Senate, House, and state legislatures by historic landslides that will destroy the Republican party, but lose the Presidency.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Yeah right.

They've got the house down pat.

The interesting thing about a 15-20 seat pick up and retaking the Senate, is how it opens possibilities for actual legislation to pass. Having to lift a net 30 votes for something like infrastructure bank, or (god-forbid!) immigration reform, is a whole lot more doable than before. It's not sexy, but patent reform and mental health funding may also be on the table, both of which may actually lead to tangible goods for business and the citizens

 

[hawk2025]

538 wrote a whole article where the actual content is literally "tails of probability distributions have less mass".


Mess.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Fucking DWS man.

Should have been fired in 2014. Embarrassing she was allowed to stay on as head of DNC.

Bring back Howard Dean for fucks sake.

 

[Manmademan]

Getting both was never possible IMO. Be happy with the house, if that

you drunk, bro?

 

[VendettaRed07]

you drunk, bro?

Yes.

Yes I am.

 

[CygnusXS]

You think he lets her talk freely?

I mean, I would hope so?

 

[BobTheFork]

you drunk, bro?

you think they are going to get both?
Or did you mean they would get the senate but not the house. I may have mixed it up.
I don't think there is any chance of both

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Per Tom Llamas: Trump tells me Speaker Ryan may not want him to win the election: "maybe he wants to run in 4 years" More tomorrow on @GMA @ABCPolitics

I'm not giving up on the House if we have three more weeks of Trump telling GOP voters that the party is against him and the elections are rigged.

 

[HanShotFirst]

The interesting thing about a 15-20 seat pick up and retaking the Senate, is how it opens possibilities for actual legislation to pass. Having to lift a net 30 votes for something like infrastructure bank, or (god-forbid!) immigration reform, is a whole lot more doable than before. It's not sexy, but patent reform and mental health funding may also be on the table, both of which may actually lead to tangible goods for business and the citizens

That's how its supposed to work, but if Paul Ryan doesn't put bills up for a vote then it won't matter, 'that's why Democrats getting 218 seats is much better than 217. Pelosi as speaker is far more preferable than Ryan as speaker, regardless of the number of seats. I'm not saying the number of seats Democrats pick up is unimportant(it is) but getting the speakership is something that Democrats really need to just get some real compromise and bills passed.

 

[Y2Kev]

Trump: You should be ashamed of yourself. You lied, you cheated, there has never been more cheating, you are rigging the election, you are missing 40,000 emails, possibly 50, maybe 60,000 emails, and you acid washed and bleached the Benghazi records. And you ignored 600 possibly 700 or 800 requests for help from Benghazi. And now we learn that you did a dirty deal with the FBI to get unindicted. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Hillary: bububububu

Chris Wallace *throws in a towel*

*Hillary faints*

Y'all know this is true and y'all can't WAIT for morning joe tomorrow.

 

[Pyrokai]

What is this quid pro quo thing??????

 

[Grief.exe]

"I want to fight negativity online"

It's a cry for help, let her out!

What is this quid pro quo thing??????

Everything is covered here.

https://twitter.com/yottapoint/status/788051222469029888

 

[Manmademan]

you think they are going to get both?

1.) The senate is far, far easier to pick up than the House. 538 had the democrats at about a 70% chance of controlling the senate as of this afternoon (I'm too lazy to check the exact number.)

2.) If the election were held today, Democrats would control the house. Hillary is polling around a +9 in likely voter polls right now. Given the rather lopsided ground game advantage the democrats have at the moment, this is very likely to be a lowball.

Most estimates had the democrats needing somewhere around a +7 advantage in the popular vote to win the house of representatives. a +9 or +10 will not only win the house, but will cause gerrymandering to backfire horribly on the GOP, wiping out a lot of seats they thought were safe.

 

[RustyNails]

Watch us win the house but not the Senate.

This is even better. Queen Pelosi will simply bring up the Immigration bill an it will be passed into law.

 

[royalan]

"Donald Trump said you are stronger than ever. Is that true"

"Never answers question*

I hate having to watch her do this.

I don't.

Just like Trump's children, Melania is a grown ass women. She wants to get on stage? Let her take the tomatoes.

 

[User 463088]

Oh god, the Al Smith Dinner is Thursday.

 

[Slayven]

1.) The senate is far, far easier to pick up than the House. 538 had the democrats at about a 70% chance of controlling the senate as of this afternoon (I'm too lazy to check the exact number.)

2.) If the election were held today, Democrats would control the house. Hillary is polling around a +9 in likely voter polls right now. Given the rather lopsided ground game advantage the democrats have at the moment, this is very likely to be a lowball.

Most estimates had the democrats needing somewhere around a +7 advantage in the popular vote to win the house of representatives. a +9 or +10 will not only win the house, but will cause gerrymandering to backfire horribly on the GOP, wiping out a lot of seats they thought were safe.

Technically the election is being held today. Early voting and what not

 

[Joeytj]

Trump: You should be ashamed of yourself. You lied, you cheated, there has never been more cheating, you are rigging the election, you are missing 40,000 emails, possibly 50, maybe 60,000 emails, and you acid washed and bleached the Benghazi records. And you ignored 600 possibly 700 or 800 requests for help from Benghazi. And now we learn that you did a dirty deal with the FBI to get unindicted. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Hillary: bububububu

Chris Wallace *throws in a towel*

*Hillary faints*

Y'all know this is true and y'all can't WAIT for morning joe tomorrow.

Are you drunk most of the times?

 

[Captain Pants]

I had clicked on this facebook comment feed because my best friend's wife had posted something in it, and this was the first shit I saw. Hillary Derangement Syndrome is going to be just as bad as Obama Derangement Syndrome isn't it?

 

[Blader]

Rubio actually lost the debate somehow by creating the only news-worthy thing from the debate. He claimed Patrick Murphy sexually assaulted a woman because of a picture of Murphy groping a woman... The woman was Murphy's girlfriend.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/788173445666406400

Rubio is 100% scrublord and Murphy is even more of a scrublord if he can't beat this loser.

Did he actually say on stage that it was a picture of his girlfriend?

 

[User 463088]

I had clicked on this facebook comment feed because my best friend's wife had posted something in it, and this was the first shit I saw. Hillary Derangement Syndrome is going to be just as bad as Obama Derangement Syndrome isn't it?

Oh you sweet summer child.

It's going to be worse. Wait until they investigate Christmas cards again.

 

[Slayven]

I had clicked on this facebook comment feed because my best friend's wife had posted something in it, and this was the first shit I saw. Hillary Derangement Syndrome is going to be just as bad as Obama Derangement Syndrome isn't it?

When did Hillary commit insider trading?

 

[whyamihere]

Ooooof.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/senate-gop-cash-crunch-229830

Senate Republicans, whose fragile majority has been threatened by Donald Trump’s tanking presidential bid, are suddenly confronting another problem: a lack of cash.

Republicans are set to be massively outspent on TV ads in seven of the eight states that are likely to decide control of the chamber. The spending disadvantage could badly hinder the GOP’s prospects, and it has led to growing frustration among the party’s top strategists — many of whom are convinced it’s long past time to cut Trump loose and focus almost exclusively on preserving the Senate majority.

Republicans say they are particularly concerned that Democrats will use their financial advantage to tie the GOP candidates to an increasingly toxic Trump, who is now besieged by numerous accusations of sexual assault. In the New Hampshire Senate race — where Democrats have seized on GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s errant debate comment that Trump “absolutely” was a role model for children, which she hastily retracted — Democrats have booked nearly $16 million of TV airtime between Oct. 11 and Nov. 8, while Republicans have set aside over $12 million, according to a media tracking source. In Indiana, where another key contest is unfolding, Democrats are set to air over $7 million worth of commercials during the same time frame, while Republicans have booked around $4 million.

And in Pennsylvania, the gap is particularly large. Democrats, who tied Republican Sen. Pat Toomey to Trump in another new ad last week, have reserved $17 million of TV airtime there — more than double the $8 million Republicans are set to air.

It could get worse. As Hillary Clinton pulls away from Trump, Republicans are worried Democrats will shift resources down-ballot. The Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, which has been dedicated to electing Clinton, is considering investing in several Senate races.

“I think it’s very disconcerting,” said Steven Law, who oversees Senate Leadership Fund, the principal outside group defending the Republican majority. “What we’re seeing is, Democrats’ big money has concluded that the presidential race is banked. So now, it’s pouring into the most competitive Senate races.”

Law, a longtime ally of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, said there was “almost giddy donor enthusiasm on the Democratic side.”

Others are questioning the approach of the NRSC, which spent heavily early on in this year’s campaign but now is short on cash for the final push. As of Friday afternoon, the committee had reserved just $5 million for the four week stretch — a small fraction of the $40 million booked by the DSCC. NRSC officials say they decided to spend money earlier in the campaign season in order to define Democratic candidates.

One national Republican strategist, however, called the decision a “giant gamble” and “a bit of a headscratcher.”

STATE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICAN
FLORIDA $4.2 million $9.6 million
INDIANA $7.0 million $4.3 million
MISSOURI $8.1 million $6.4 million
NEVADA $12.5 million $12.2 million
NEW HAMPSHIRE $15.8 million $12.3 million
NORTH CAROLINA $11.9 million $9.3 million
PENNSYLVANIA $17.2 million $8.5 million
WISCONSIN $4.0 million $1.9 million
TOTAL: $80.7 million $64.5 million

 

[Tamanon]

When did Hillary commit insider trading?

I believe they're talking about the "cattle deal"?

 

[thcsquad]

Most estimates had the democrats needing somewhere around a +7 advantage in the popular vote to win the house of representatives. a +9 or +10 will not only win the house, but will cause gerrymandering to backfire horribly on the GOP, wiping out a lot of seats they thought were safe.

And doesn't this tie in with the reports about red states turning less red? From an EC perspective, some of her national polling advantage is wasted on states that are never going for her. but if a state goes from r+25 to r+15, that has to reflect itself in some house seats. If Texas closes to r+5, that has to be worth some house seats, even with gerrymandering.

 

[Pyrokai]

Everything is covered here.

https://twitter.com/yottapoint/status/788051222469029888

Yikes, this sounds bad.

 

[Manmademan]

Technically the election is being held today. Early voting and what not

this is true- but since I'm not in an early voting state I tend to overlook that.

here's a quote from wang at PEC going into this in detail.

Yesterday, I used the generic Congressional preference poll and national Presidential polls to estimate that if the election were held today, House Democratic candidates would win the popular vote by 5-8%, indicated by the curly bracket in the graph. Judging from the last few cycles, that level of public opinion appears to be right on the edge of being enough to give Democrats control of the House.

Note that on the generic Congressional graph, I have displayed a threshold of Democrats +4.5% 7%. Revised – I may revise that threshold in the weeks ahead – informed comments are welcome.

Kyle Kondik takes a more extreme view, and estimates that Democrats need a +10% win. If true, that would be a serious deviation from 1946-2012 trends. There is a research finding from the 1990s asserting that the effects of gerrymandering can fade after a few cycles. Whether Kyle is right or I am, it is probably time to revisit that old finding – for instance with newer statistical tools.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/12/what-would-it-take-for-the-house-to-flip/

Wang says 5 to 8% would be "right on the edge" of giving democrats the house, noting that Kyle Kondik's "more extreme" view that he doesn't consider likely says +10.

With hillary at +9/+10 right now, with a third debate coming the democrats have this.

It's possible that Trump's popularity may revert to some kind of mean, and slide back to a +6 or +7 but i can't see how that happens right now. The floodgates on women charging him with sexual assault has been opened, and that kind of impression isn't going to easily revert before november 8th.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Yikes, this sounds bad.

What about it?

 

[Carpe Carnim]

That's how its supposed to work, but if Paul Ryan doesn't put bills up for a vote then it won't matter, 'that's why Democrats getting 218 seats is much better than 217. Pelosi as speaker is far more preferable than Ryan as speaker, regardless of the number of seats. I'm not saying the number of seats Democrats pick up is unimportant(it is) but getting the speakership is something that Democrats really need to just get some real compromise and bills passed.

Of course, that's how it should work, and having the Speakership back in Nancy Smash! hands is the better option, but a slim majority for Ryan keeps the fear of purple-district Repubs teaming up with Dems to pass SOMETHING, a reality. More importantly, it limits the amount of concessions he can extract to put those deals on the schedule.

Eventually, fear of losing swing-districts will outweigh the mewling and skullduggery of the Freedom Caucus crazies

 

[Boke1879]

I don't.

Just like Trump's children, Melania is a grown ass women. She wants to get on stage? Let her take the tomatoes.

Gotta agree here. She's a grown woman and could have said she wants no parts of this. She decided to do this. Now I doubt this moves the needle in any way but it brings back up an issue that was quite frankly fading from media presence

 

[Captain Pants]

It's going to be worse.

I really do wonder about that. It's going to be interesting study in whether America is more racist or more sexist. Obama unhinged some people just by existing, but the same does seem true of Hillary, and across the left and the right.

 

[Manmademan]

And doesn't this tie in with the reports about red states turning less red? From an EC perspective, some of her national polling advantage is wasted on states that are never going for her. but if a state goes from r+25 to r+15, that has to reflect itself in some house seats. If Texas closes to r+5, that has to be worth some house seats, even with gerrymandering.

yes, exactly. There are already reports that the democrats are sending campaign surrogates and clinton herself to places like AZ or GA or whatever.

This isn't because they want to run up the score in the EV, it's because there are newly vulnerable house races that could flip with a small increase in turnout.

 

[Diablos]

Money talks a lot in FL for waterboy. fucking hell

 

[mackaveli]

It's great that Bernie is putting in a lot of work to Hillary's campaign.

I know a lot of people were worried he might not even endorse or campaign at all. I was skeptical but I am very happy to be wrong.

 

[HylianTom]

Maddow is outlining a map of where Bernie has been for Clinton over the past few weeks. I am impressed and thankful. He's going to Arizona tomorrow for two events.

Thank you, Bernie! {*salute*}

 

[Suikoguy]

What about it?

He apparently never read it:

One of the last tweets of the series:

"There's NO scandal here. No quid pro quo. No HRC wrongdoing. Routine stuff is being made to look suspicious."

Virtually every Clinton "Scandal" is that way.

Every Single Time

It's infuriating.

Considering the sheer amount of hacked information released, i'm quite impressed how clean Dems and Clinton are right now. If people want a non-corrupt party, seems like a damn good choice right now.

 

[RustyNails]

This weekly standard hit piece is the biggest bullshit after that AP tweet this election.

T. R. Ramachandran ‏@yottapoint 39m39 minutes ago

Kennedy was entitled to express a strong opinion on what shd be retroactively classified. Just like Colin Powell was. That's NOT a scandal.

T. R. Ramachandran ‏@yottapoint 1m1 minute ago

*Hypothetical* alt-tweet: FBI official DESPERATELY wanted to classify email that was unclassified. Why? Was it FBI cover up? (Hold breath)

 

[Grief.exe]

New Keepin it 1600 is up

https://soundcloud.com/keepinit1600

 

[HylianTom]

Apprentice Staffer Claims Gary Busey Groped Her. And Then Donald Trump Laughed.

Oscar nominee Gary Busey allegedly sexually assaulted a female Apprentice employee during his time on the show, five Apprentice employees tell The Daily Beast. Donald Trump knew about the incident, laughed it off, and kept Busey on his TV series, these staffers said.

Multiple Apprentice employees, including the alleged victim herself, told The Daily Beast that the Academy-Award-nominated actor “grabbed” one of their colleagues “firmly between [the] legs” during the 2011 season of Celebrity Apprentice. Busey also forcibly put the female staffer’s hand on the crotch of his pants. The alleged incident, which they say took place during a location shoot in SoHo in New York City, prompted a firestorm among members of the Apprentice crew.

I love that Busey will now be seen as a Trump partner-in-pussy-grabbin'.

 

[User 463088]

Maddow is outlining a map of where Bernie has been for Clinton over the past few weeks. I am impressed and thankful. He's going to Arizona tomorrow for two events.

Thank you, Bernie! {*salute*}

Thank you ... Bernie.

But, did you hear what Rachel said?

Trump has 5 staffers in the entire state of Arizona. That's the RNC, the AZ GOP and Trump...combined.

Hahahahahahaha

 

[Slayven]

I believe they're talking about the "cattle deal"?

who has more felonies, Hillary or Carmen Sandiego?

 

[hom3land]

I pray the dems take Congress. If not HillDawgs presidential term will be filled with hearing on emails,bengazhi, the devil inside Hillary.....

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I pray the dems take Congress. If not HillDawgs presidential term will be filled with hearing on emails,bengazhi, the devil inside Hillary.....

As Obama has shown, you can actually get a surprising amount of stuff done as president without the help of congress.

With a liberal SC, she's going to have a lot more leeway with executive actions than Obama had.

 

[Slayven]

As Obama has shown, you can actually get a surprising amount of stuff done as president without the help of congress.

With a liberal SC, she's going to have a lot more leeway with executive actions than Obama had.

But still no death panels.

 

[explodet]

who has more felonies, Hillary or Carmen Sandiego?

Neither have ever been convicted of any crime.

*WINK*

 

[Cyanity]

No one knows what quid pro quo means. Seriously. Go interview some people on the street and ask them what "Quid pro quo" means - the average person will have no clue. And as a result, it doesn't matter whether or not this is a nothingburger. Even if it was blatant quid pro quo, no one would give a shit.