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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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B

blackaroni

Member
Tad is still talking about stealing delegates from caucus states smh. Didn't someone actually leak the unpledged delegates for NV before their convention? Was anything ever done about that?
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
blackaroni said:
Tad is still talking about stealing delegates from caucus states smh. Didn't someone actually leak the unpledged delegates for NV before their convention? Was anything ever done about that?
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Tad comes off as a douche... Who is worse, though? Him or Weaver?
 
S

soundscream

Member
brainchild said:
Now that it is clear that I didn't have anything to do with the incessant mentioning of Tyler or his models well after I originally brought them up, as evidenced by the fact that I still see him being mentioned here as recently as the last page (unless you all believe that I hacked most of the mod and user accounts in these threads when I was banned), I kindly request that I not be blamed for the ridiculous arguments that continue to arise from his bullshit.

I would prefer not to be banned for being someone that I am not, and I would prefer not to be banned for merely defending that fact. In no way did I violate ToS, and I will do everything that I can going forward to ensure that the ToS is respected.

Thanks for your consideration.
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What made you decide to go all in with that thread you made? Because it wasn't a good look.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Wilsongt said:
Tad comes off as a douche... Who is worse, though? Him or Weaver?
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Weaver for sure

As for things that I want to see done:

Increase in the minimum wage to at least 10 nationwide
Supreme Court makes the lgbt community a protected class
I think one of the biggest things that need to be addressed is the K-12 education system, even more so than college costs. The condition and qualities of some the schools we make children attend is deplorable
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
Kristoffer said:
In case people in here didn't see this, about half a million people in California have probably mistakenly signed up for the American Independent Party instead of being Independent. The AIP is an ultraconservative anti-abortion anti-immigrant anti-gay party.

In California, you must be registered independent or with a party to vote in that party's primary.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1209986
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Listen, if I'm a member of the Democrat Party, the last people I want deciding my nominee are people who aren't even going to bother to register as Democrats. I'm an independent, so I can't vote in my state's closed primary, and I'm OK with that. These people who don't want to label themselves but still want to take on responsibility for choosing party nominees? That's nonsense. It's funny in this case because "actual" independents can vote in the Democratic primary while the "American Independent Party" can't, but if you're that ignorant, maybe you shouldn't be responsible for choosing the nominee of the party you're unwilling to label yourself as. Just register as a Democrat and be done with it.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
soundscream said:
What made you decide to go all in with that thread you made? Because it wasn't a good look.
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It was a curious and novel way to attempt to predict elections and I took interest in it. It was also becoming increasingly predictive over time, so I thought it was thread worthy at the time.

Since then I've learned that even with his regression model, the elections are just too fluid and dynamic for his model to have consistent predictive power without polls (there is no 100% consistency between any two or more states and their correlation with social media data). He'd be better off using a 'polls +' model like Nate does.

Anyway, it just pisses me off that I got accused of being him WELL AFTER I rejected him and his model. I'd like to just move on from that now.


EDIT:

I should also add that I go 'all in' with anything that I defend. I'm a passionate debater, but that shouldn't be conflated with conflict of interest.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
If 1000 people develop 1000 different models with completely random variables, a handful of them will seem highly predictive nearly every time every now and then.

The Tyler model had all the warning signs of crippling lack of external validity from the jump. From the first time it was brought up.

Since the idea is to put the discussion to bed for good, fair enough:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_validity

Consider this for future discussions on models.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
brainchild said:
It was a curious and novel way to attempt to predict elections and I took interest in it. It was also becoming increasingly predictive over time, so I thought it was thread worthy at the time.

Since then I've learned that even with his regression model, the elections are just too fluid and dynamic for his model to have consistent predictive power without polls (there is no 100% consistency between any two or more states and their correlation with social media data). He'd be better off using a 'polls +' model like Nate does.

Anyway, it just pisses me off that I got accused of being him WELL AFTER I rejected him and his model. I'd like to just move on from that now.


EDIT:

I should also add that I go 'all in' with anything that I defend. I'm a passionate debater, but that shouldn't be conflated with conflict of interest.
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Except it wasn't getting more predictive over time.

Also, when I made that joke I was just kidding.
 
C

Crayons

Banned
hawk2025 said:
If 1000 people develop 1000 different models with completely random variables, a handful of them will seem highly predictive nearly every time every now and then.

The Tyler model had all the warning signs of crippling lack of external validity from the jump. From the first time it was brought up.

Since the idea is to put the discussion to bed for good, fair enough:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_validity

Consider this for future discussions on models.
Click to expand...

hell yes. statistics
 
A

adamsappel

Member
B-Dubs said:
The VP usually does get a speaking spot, so I'm sure he will.
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Old, but as much as I'd like Franken as VP, he has too much SNL-era baggage for Republicans to exploit.
Ignatz Mouse said:
I don't think you get the deduction on a second home already.
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Remember when McCain couldn't even remember how many houses he owned? Hmm, how many houses do the Clintons and Trump own?
Wilsongt said:
This $20 bill thing is going to be interesting...
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My father tells a story of when he was a kid there was a friend's dad who hated Roosevelt and would throw away dimes that had his face on them (and the kids would pick them up and spend them). I wonder if racists will refuse the new bills in change, and what awful name they will give them?
 
C

campfireweekend

Member
Plumbob said:
I'm econ + math 2015
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Ooh, math. I'm econ + stats 2016. Is 104 worth taking. I have a semester left and was wondering whether to take it.

Also, I love how at the beginning of 142 Card tried to play up the difficulty of the class so much that half the people dropped, playing up the people that remained some kinda econ elite.

I mean, i'm not gonna say that class wasn't difficult at times, but lol
 
P

Plumbob

Member
campfireweekend said:
Ooh, math. I'm econ + stats 2016. Is 104 worth taking. I have a semester left and was wondering whether to take it.

Also, I love how at the beginning of 142 Card tried to play up the difficulty of the class so much that half the people dropped, playing up the people that remained some kinda econ elite.

I mean, i'm not gonna say that class wasn't difficult at times, but lol
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104 is super hit or miss and pretty challenging. If you want to go to grad school it's really A or bust for real analysis.

I dropped 142 :p had plenty on my plate senior year. Are you gonna write a thesis?
 
H

hawk2025

Member
I totally missed the David Card lovefest on the previous page!


<3 <3 <3


If you want to apply to PhDs, take Real Analysis.

I cannot emphasize that enough. FWIW, I got in everywhere without an A on Real Analysis.
 
C

campfireweekend

Member
Plumbob said:
104 is super hit or miss and pretty challenging. If you want to go to grad school it's really A or bust for real analysis.

I dropped 142 :p had plenty on my plate senior year. Are you gonna write a thesis?
Click to expand...

Shoulda stuck it out mayne. Super fun class.

I'm not gonna write a thesis, I'm probably going to get an MA for stats or econ before I pursue a PhD, and either program would include real analysis and research opportunities.
 
D

daedalius

Member
blackaroni said:
Tad is still talking about stealing delegates from caucus states smh. Didn't someone actually leak the unpledged delegates for NV before their convention? Was anything ever done about that?
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How much of a meltdown would Bernie supporters be having if hill's chief strategist was talking about stealing unpledged delegates?
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Touchdown said:
oh crap! Hannity got feisty with Ted Cruz earlier on his radio show!! Ted is starting to get frustrated!!
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/im-getting-sick-sean-hannity-224557956.html

Hannity pointed out that the Cruz campaign has focused on wooing delegates who might be able to switch their votes from Trump to Cruz on a second convention ballot.

"It's more than a process question," Hannity said. "It's an integrity-of-the-election question."

Cruz responded that the "only people asking this question are the hardcore Donald Trump supporters."

Hannity told him that he had to "stop."

"Senator, why do you do this every single time?" Hannity asked, cutting Cruz off as he was speaking. "You've got to stop. Every time I have you on the air, and I ask a legitimate question, you try to throw this in my face. I'm getting sick of it. I've had you on more than any other candidate on radio and TV. So if I ask you, senator, a legitimate question to explain to the audience, why don't you just answer it?"
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LOL why is it that Sean Hannity of all people is the first to go after Cruz for dodging questions?
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Fenderputty said:
How the fuck are any of these dudes supposed to debate Hillary if they get flustered the second they can't get the slightest amount of heat?
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I don't know which i'm surprised by more, Hannity having some actual class or Cruz being a douchebag.

Oh wait, i'm actually not surprised by the later.

Brawndo Addict said:
I'm pretty sure everybody's posts involving Tyler's model has been a joke/meme.
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Seriously, that's what the last thread's title ended up being too.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Fenderputty said:
How the fuck are any of these dudes supposed to debate Hillary if they get flustered the second they can't get the slightest amount of heat?
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Cruz hasn't directly answered many questions yet this election. My guess is he just continues to do that.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
brainchild said:
Not falling for this trap again lest I be accused of being Tyler and end up getting myself banned for trolling. Moving on...
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Man, tyler you were so spot on with that michigan prediction. ;)

Im sorry for being humorous i didnt know about any of this stuff you went through brah
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Brawndo Addict said:
I'm pretty sure everybody's posts involving Tyler's model has been a joke/meme.
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My banning was not a joke/meme. To suggest that this was all in good fun is a serious case of revisionist history.

Many people were absolutely confounded that I was so ardent in my defense of his model (at the time), and even accused my brother of being an alt account. All of my posts (and my brother's posts) regarding this have been deleted. There is nothing humorous about anything of this, from my perspective.
 
K

Kangi

Member
Weren't your brother's posts deleted specifically because one should be PMing a mod about these things instead of airing grievances with them in a thread?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
If Hillary was in prison, she would probably lose Utah, Texas, Georgia, and Mississippi, but I'm pretty confident she'd win North Carolina, Virginia, and states more liberal than those two.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Kangi said:
Weren't your brother's posts deleted specifically because one should be PMing a mod about these things instead of airing grievances with them in a thread?
Click to expand...

My brother's intention was to vouch for me that I wasn't Tyler. That post was deleted.

However, I don't want to get into a big discussion about this. I just wanted to clarify that this was not all fun and games, and that I'd like to move on from this nonsense. I'd like to be able to post in this thread going forward without being accused of being Tyler.
 
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