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[hammysaurusrex]

But they can't admit that Hillary won on her own merits. Has to be a conspiracy.

I think this sentence most sums up my progression from enthusiasm, to apathy, to disgust with Bernie's political base.

I totally understand and can even sympathize with the things Bernie supporters want and I share some of their frustrations. However, Hillary supports are given no such benefit - there must be some kind of ignorance among voters, a conspiracy, fraud, etc. - it seems impossible for them to conceive that some us voted for Hillary because we sincerely think she us is the best candidate or we have analyzed Bernie's positions and found them, overall, unappealing.

In the end, I'm extremely thankful Bernie ran. It gave me the wake-up call that there's nothing 'special' in terms of rationale discourse about progressivism - it falls victim to the same logical fallacies of every other human endeavor, especially political. The "it can't happen here" perspective gained its textbook counter example in this campaign. When my ultra-liberal friends are using Breitbart unapologetically as resources for their political fodder, I wish there was someway to just walk them back even a few feet and let them see themselves.

 

[Fenderputty]

Psh, that's for kids. Real men put whiskey in their cereal.

Spoiler

/s

That was a strangely specific place for Reince to go, though, wasn't it? I've known exactly one person who put Bailey's in their cereal, and that was after a night of carousing on St. Patrick's Day that took a nasty turn. The combination lead almost immediately to vomiting, so I wouldn't recommend it.

It just sounded so nasty lol

Couldn't believe it was a thing. Maybe with something mild like frosted flakes or something.

I'd totally be up for an elimination of the deduction on all 2nd homes or homes over $2.5 million period.

I'm 35, definitely not rich and on my second home. You don't usually buy a home and live there for 30 years unless you're lucky enough to afford a nice place in a nice town for your first home. My first home was in a lower income neighborhood to build equity for my second.

Isn't there already a million dollar cap on the total value of a mortgage? Which seems better than a house value.

You actually get to decide what to do with your own savings, and it isn't susceptible to demographic bulges like Social Security is.

I didn't say it was to only the rich, just that it's mostly to the rich. If the objective is to help the poor and middle class it would be better to just give them money directly. This wouldn't end going to rich, it wouldn't cause distortions in housing market, and let the poor spend the money more readily on what they see fit.

Yeah, it isn't Japan bad, but ideally you don't want to be anywhere close to Japan bad. Anyway a primary surplus would still mean a net deficit overall, because a primary surplus is a budget surplus before interest payments. So the gov wouldn't be removing money from the economy, they'd just be putting less into it. This method would reduce the debt to GDP ratio by stabilizing the debt part while GDP continues to grow.

Yeah that doesn't sound bad, but I'm not sure how you transition to this Chilean model from what we have. Seems like fixing our system would be easier with less variables that could negatively effect people who've already paid into the system.

What type of money are you talking about giving to people? Is it tiered based on income? Property value varies widely. At least the current deduction catches that variance based on the total value of the mortgage / interest paid. A middle class person in Cali will make more and have a more valuable house than a person in Ohio with the same quality of life.

The interest payments aren't going to the average American. So a revenue neutral/surplus primary budget would still be effectively taking money out of the hands it should be going to. Unless you make our budget a surplus by cutting defense spending on things other than troops massively. In the meantime we need to do massive amount of infrastructure spending that we currently aren't doing.

 

[campfireweekend]

I think this is right in theory, wrong in practice. Once we have successfully expanded the welfare state sufficiently we can start to unwind the minimum wages, which I agree is approaching the problem incorrectly.

Wrong in theory as well. Look up monopsonistic labor competition.

Wages are often below where they would be set in equilibrium due to the monopsonistic powers most employers have.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

I'm 35, definitely not rich and on my second home. You don't usually buy a home and live there for 30 years unless you're lucky enough to afford a nice place in a nice town for your first home. My first home was in a lower income neighborhood to build equity for my second.

I think the poster's implication was "additional home," not if you sell your first house and move into a new one. Like someone who has a primary home in Seattle and a winter home in Palm Springs wouldn't be able to deduct the mortgage from both properties.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I don't think you get the deduction on a second home already.

 

[Holmes]

I think this is the most likely way that Trump will get to 1,237:

http://53eig.ht/1237#CT:28,DE:16,MD:38,PA:17,RI:10,IN:37,NE:1,WV:34,OR:12,WA:17,CA:120,NJ:51,NM:10

Here's my prediction:

http://53eig.ht/1237#CT:28,DE:16,MD:35,PA:17,RI:10,IN:48,WV:34,OR:12,WA:17,CA:129,NJ:51,NM:10

Really it all depends on Indiana, but I think he can get to 1237 without it now (with unpledged delegates). But a Trump win in Indiana will seal the deal and Cruz might as well just drop out afterwards.

 

[StopMakingSense]

I do think a sweep on Tues will give Trump enough of a momentum bump to get there.

 

[ivysaur12]

Watch Trump fall like, 5 delegates short

I think he'd still get it with the PA unpledged delegates.

 

[Gruco]

Wrong in theory as well. Look up monopsonistic labor competition.

Wages are often below where they would be set in equilibrium due to the monopsonistic powers most employers have.

FWIW, Search models give the same general result. I don't think there's any super hard evidence that rejects search in favor of monopsony, or even that particularly support monopsony power as being particularly widespread in min wag jobs, though I can think of a few hard rejections off the top off my head.

Anyway, I agree with you broadly, I just don't want to oversell the point on monopsony specifically bring the mechanism.

 

[Paskil]

YAAAAAAAS! I got a summons for jury duty. Always wanted to serve but only received a notice once and it was during my stupid years, and I had legal issues at the time.

Hope I get selected.

 

[Holmes]

I think the unpledged PA delegates (and to a lesser extent, the uncommitted ND delegates) will just vote the way the RNC wants them to. They say they'll vote the way their state/districts votes, but I can see them doing what the RNC tells them to. If Trump is really close to 1237 and it would be a disaster for Cruz to steal it, I can see the RNC taking the L and instructing them to give it to Trump.

 

[Y2Kev]

YAAAAAAAS! I got a summons for jury duty. Always wanted to serve but only received a notice once and it was during my stupid years, and I had legal issues at the time.

Hope I get selected.

I never made it to voir dire

 

[campfireweekend]

FWIW, Search models give the same general result. I don't think there's any super hard evidence that rejects search in favor of monopsony, or even that particularly support monopsony power as being particularly widespread in min wag jobs, though I can think of a few hard rejections off the top off my head.

Anyway, I agree with you broadly, I just don't want to oversell the point on monopsony specifically bring the mechanism.

I admit I may be a bit biased on that point due to studying under one of the professors that popularized the monopsony model in research of minimum wage, David Card.

Do you have any good papers on the search model?

 

[pigeon]

Wrong in theory as well. Look up monopsonistic labor competition.

Wages are often below where they would be set in equilibrium due to the monopsonistic powers most employers have.

I would argue the problem is not purely monopsony but also selling pressure from the lash of hunger, and I'd resolve the issue by creating sufficient guaranteed income to allow people to refuse to sell their labor if they don't reach a price they prefer.

 

[B-Dubs]

YAAAAAAAS! I got a summons for jury duty. Always wanted to serve but only received a notice once and it was during my stupid years, and I had legal issues at the time.

Hope I get selected.

I never even get called up

 

[Box of Kittens]

I didn't start posting on PoliGAF until earlier this year so I never participated in the prediction contest. Honestly I'm not sure who I would have picked but I doubt I would've guessed it would come down to Trump vs. Cruz (lol Kasich). One thing I did get right though was that Walker would flame out early. Living in Wisconsin for most of his first term, I could tell he didn't have what it takes to be a national politician.

 

[JesseEwiak]

I think the poster's implication was "additional home," not if you sell your first house and move into a new one. Like someone who has a primary home in Seattle and a winter home in Palm Springs wouldn't be able to deduct the mortgage from both properties.

Definitely meant 2nd home as additional home, not just the 2nd home you've bought and if there is a $1 million cap, that works. I just want to avoid the "OMG I'm middle class in San Francisco, but my house is worth 12 zillion dollars!" responses.

 

[campfireweekend]

I would argue the problem is not purely monopsony but also selling pressure from the lash of hunger, and I'd resolve the issue by creating sufficient guaranteed income to allow people to refuse to sell their labor if they don't reach a price they prefer.

Man, I really wish some presidential candidate would advocate a negative income tax.

It should be bipartisan. It was formulated by Friedman and almost implemented by Nixon!

 

[B-Dubs]

Man, I really wish some presidential candidate would advocate a negative income tax.

It should be bipartisan. It was formulated by Friedman and almost implemented by Nixon!

That would be a good idea, Congress can't be bothered to implement many good ideas.

 

[campfireweekend]

That would be a good idea, Congress can't be bothered to implement many good ideas.

Yeah I prefer it to universal basic income. Targeted programs always work better at alleviating a problem than simply raising everyone's income.

 

[Macho Madness]

A Bernie superdelegate flipped to Hillary today: https://westhollywoodguardian.wordpress.com/2016/04/19/hillary-clinton-endorsement/

 

[Cipherr]

Awww shit

https://youtu.be/JEjUzAM7OTs?t=12

 

[Wilsongt]

This $20 bill thing is going to be interesting...

 

[balladofwindfishes]

A Bernie superdelegate flipped to Hillary today: https://westhollywoodguardian.wordpress.com/2016/04/19/hillary-clinton-endorsement/

Bernie supporters should listen

I am slated to be married to the love of my life next year, and I cannot imagine a world without that legal right. Actually, I can, and that’s why it is so imperative that we coalesce behind our party’s choice, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

I argued with someone today (on reddit) who was so sure he didn't need to worry about a Republican Supreme Court because "the major social issues like marriage and abortion were settled ages ago" and I was just taken back the naivety of it.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

In case people in here didn't see this, about half a million people in California have probably mistakenly signed up for the American Independent Party instead of being Independent. The AIP is an ultraconservative anti-abortion anti-immigrant anti-gay party.

In California, you must be registered independent or with a party to vote in that party's primary.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1209986

 

[Zona]

A Bernie superdelegate flipped to Hillary today: https://westhollywoodguardian.wordpress.com/2016/04/19/hillary-clinton-endorsement/

Retroactive Momentum!

I can't decide if I want Trump to make it on the first ballot, or to have it stolen out from under him. Both thoughts are delicious in their own way. I'm sort of leaning towards stolen just to see the response from my Trump supporting friends. Their confidence in his winning the nomination and the general is adorable. I can't wait to see it crushed.

 

[Aaron Strife]

In case people in here didn't see this, about half a million people in California have probably mistakenly signed up for the American Independent Party instead of being Independent. The AIP is an ultraconservative anti-abortion anti-immigrant anti-gay party.

In California, you must be registered independent or with a party to vote in that party's primary.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1209986

Wah wah.

It's sneaky of the party to call themselves that, but it's just stupid to not read the goddamn instructions.

 

[Box of Kittens]

I argued with someone today (on reddit) who was so sure he didn't need to worry about a Republican Supreme Court because "the major social issues like marriage and abortion were settled ages ago" and I was just taken back the naivety of it.

Not to mention other issues like voting rights and campaign finance on which the Supreme Court has ruled against progressive legislation, or pending cases concerning issues like climate change, or...

 

[Mario]

Okay, because of the nature of the primaries, I think most of us are highly focused on this process specifically and staking sides. But speaking more broadly, what are the most important issues for PoliGAF this election cycle? What do we actually want accomplished?

As a foreigner living in a foreign land, my hopes and dreams for this election cycle are

- don't reverse out all the progress that has been made in the last few decades
- don't invade too many people you shouldn't

If you guys manage that, would love to see the US invest more in infrastructure, education, and health which I think will go a long way to solving some of your economic, social, and cultural problems.

To me, it seems like Hillary is the best fit for what the country needs to do now and for the future, and the closest thing you'll get to an Obama third term.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

So I'm specifically registered as no party preference in California (not the crazy independence party). What would I have to do to vote in a primary?

 

[StopMakingSense]

So I'm specifically registered as no party preference in California (not the crazy independence party). What would I have to do to vote in a primary?

Show up. Note you can only vote for Dems, not Repiblicans. (Party has to agree to let uncommitted voters participate)

 

[Fenderputty]

Man, I really wish some presidential candidate would advocate a negative income tax.

It should be bipartisan. It was formulated by Friedman and almost implemented by Nixon!

Poligaf discussed something other than polls and I learned something new because of it. Feels good man.

Also, American conservatism is full of religious zealots who dont want their money going to pay for the sick or poor. Drawing partisan lines has nothing to do with logic lol

 

[brainchild]

Now that it is clear that I didn't have anything to do with the incessant mentioning of Tyler or his models well after I originally brought them up, as evidenced by the fact that I still see him being mentioned here as recently as the last page (unless you all believe that I hacked most of the mod and user accounts in these threads when I was banned), I kindly request that I not be blamed for the ridiculous arguments that continue to arise from his bullshit.

I would prefer not to be banned for being someone that I am not, and I would prefer not to be banned for merely defending that fact. In no way did I violate ToS, and I will do everything that I can going forward to ensure that the ToS is respected.

Thanks for your consideration.

 

[RustyNails]

Now that it is clear that I didn't have anything to do with the incessant mentioning of Tyler or his models well after I originally brought them up, as evidenced by the fact that I still see him being mentioned here as recently as the last page (unless you all believe that I hacked most of the mod and user accounts in these threads when I was banned), I kindly request that I not be blamed for the ridiculous arguments that continue to arise from his bullshit.

I would prefer not to be banned for being someone that I am not, and I would prefer not to be banned for merely defending that fact. In no way did I violate ToS, and I will do everything that I can going forward to ensure that the ToS is respected.

Thanks for your consideration.

Wait, didn't you have an alt account?

 

[Holmes]

A Bernie superdelegate flipped to Hillary today: https://westhollywoodguardian.wordpress.com/2016/04/19/hillary-clinton-endorsement/

He's really cute.

I did some creeping and he was a Trudeau -> Sanders person (before this flip), whereas I'm a Mulcair -> Clinton person. Funny, that.

 

[brainchild]

Wait, didn't you have an alt account?

No, that was my brother, who came to my defense. He lives in a completely different state, the mods can verify it.

 

[Touchdown]

oh crap! Hannity got feisty with Ted Cruz earlier on his radio show!! Ted is starting to get frustrated!!

 

[Macho Madness]

Maddow will be interviewing Devine tonight.

 

[campfireweekend]

Poligaf discussed something other than polls and I learned something new because of it. Feels good man.

Also, American conservatism is full of religious zealots who dont want their money going to pay for the sick or poor. Drawing partisan lines has nothing to do with logic lol

The right once had a lot of policy tools that were kinda cool that they could claim they came up with.

NIT, cap and trade, obamacare.

They kinda just decided they didn't want to do that anymore, I guess.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

I can't believe Browns fans actually got something good to happen to their franchise.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

oh crap! Hannity got feisty with Ted Cruz earlier on his radio show!! Ted is starting to get frustrated!!

Any link?

 

[Plumbob]

Wrong in theory as well. Look up monopsonistic labor competition.

Wages are often below where they would be set in equilibrium due to the monopsonistic powers most employers have.

Ayyy dat David Card doe

 

[Macho Madness]

Any link?

Here's one: https://www.clippituser.tv/c/dlbmz

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I think he'd still get it with the PA unpledged delegates.

No, even after that. Like here's the scene:

Official: Looks like the total for Mr. Trump is .... 1236.

Then you get the Hitchhiker's Guide quote when the Earth blows up.

"There was a terrible ghastly silence.
There was a terrible ghastly noise. <--- This is where the riot happens.
There was a terrible ghastly silence."

 

[campfireweekend]

Ayyy dat David Card doe

The guy's a genius. Not to mention hilarious.

 

[NihonTiger90]

Bernie supporters should listen

I argued with someone today (on reddit) who was so sure he didn't need to worry about a Republican Supreme Court because "the major social issues like marriage and abortion were settled ages ago" and I was just taken back the naivety of it.

But of course, things were settled long ago for gay rights, after all. I mean, sodomy laws were struck down nationwide waaaaaaaaaay back in the grand old year of 2003 and adding sexual orientation to the federal hate crimes list was taken care of ages ago back in 2009. Ancient times.

And it's not like anyone has attempted to pass any bills restricting abortion access anytime lately, right?

This line of thinking is just so shortsighted, especially with what's going on in places like North Carolina right now.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

 

[Armaros]

But of course, things were settled long ago for gay rights, after all. I mean, sodomy laws were struck down nationwide waaaaaaaaaay back in the grand old year of 2003 and adding sexual orientation to the federal hate crimes list was taken care of ages ago back in 2009. Ancient times.

And it's not like anyone has attempted to pass any bills restricting abortion access anytime lately, right?

This line of thinking is just so shortsighted, especially with what's going on in places like North Carolina right now.

And its not like the Voter's Right Act just didnt have parts of it shut down by the Supreme Court, thus causing the rash of Voter ID laws.

 

[Plumbob]

The guy's a genius. Not to mention hilarious.

U take 142 or u attend 420 cuz

 

[ctothej]

For me? In no particular order:

- Investment in infrastructure, namely in regional public transportation (especially high speed rail on a regional basis; I'm still bitter Kasich cancelled the Ohio Hub project)

- Reform of the prison system to focus less on harsh punishment and more on rehabilitation where it can, because too many people come out of jail and are left with no options or skills but to go back to what got them in trouble before

- Focus on environmental issues and making renewable energy sources an even greater part of our energy portfolio while working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions even further

- Continued work toward the improvement of LBGT rights, equality for women in the workplace and salary-wise, and toward improving minority communities as well poorer ones

- Reasonable gun control steps; I don't know if registration would really work and I know the NRA would fight that like hell, but common sense shit like background checks for all sales is a good small first step.

If we only accomplish this, and don't get into any wars or repeal Obamacare, I'll be happy.

I'd like to see some progress made towards reducing student debt though. Free public tuition might not be feasible, but I hope the generation after me doesn't have to be straddled by 5 or 6 figures of debt.