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[Ophelion]

there's actually another diablos in ot that is for trump.

Beard Universe Diablos?!

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Fuck, I'm already posting about politics again. SHIT! I didn't even make it like six hours. I'm so weeeeeeak.

 

[User 463088]

Fuck, I'm already posting about politics again. SHIT! I didn't even make it like six hours. I'm so weeeeeeak.

I'm lurking posting on my laptop, that I have to keep hidden from my work computer's webcam, while I'm on a conference call.....and I'm observing a new hire training class on my second work computer.

So.....if you're weak, I'm a flower blowing in the wind.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

You can't just keep repeating a made-up term and hopes it becomes something.

Is that a quote from everyone's favorite Demmy, Amtrak Joe?

 

[Mael]

NEW YORK (AP) - Donald Trump, GOP nomination virtually in hand, is planning a general election campaign that banks heavily on his personal appeal and trademark rallies while spurning the kind of sophisticated data operation that was a centerpiece of Barack Obama's winning White House runs.

http://bigstory.ap.org/ed853e2f84bd42658868a42f997c93fe

At work, we're treating the election like the best reality show ever.
Season 1 didn't disappoint and with the Nebraska shenanigan it could be the best thing ever.
Season 2 is going to be so legendary!
I have no words.

 

[Crocodile]

I'm seeing these Nebraska exit poll data and while its only exit poll data and is limited in its ability to predict primary results, I'm still surprised at how favorable they seem to Trump. I thought Nebraksa was supposed to be a bad Trump state. IF Trump wins it, were those bad assumptions or are people just falling in line after the results of last week?

 

[jack_package_200]

http://www.opb.org/news/series/elec...ers-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

OR Dem Primary

Hillary: 48
Bernie: 33

I fucking wish. That would give me so much life.

 

[Macho Madness]

I'm seeing these Nebraska exit poll data and while its only exit poll data and is limited in its ability to predict primary results, I'm still surprised at how favorable they seem to Trump. I thought Nebraksa was supposed to be a bad Trump state. IF Trump wins it, were those bad assumptions or are people just falling in line after the results of last week?

BEN SASSE

 

[StopMakingSense]

I'm seeing these Nebraska exit poll data and while its only exit poll data and is limited in its ability to predict primary results, I'm still surprised at how favorable they seem to Trump. I thought Nebraksa was supposed to be a bad Trump state. IF Trump wins it, were those bad assumptions or are people just falling in line after the results of last week?

But the other 2 are on officially suspended campaigns, thats going to severely impact their results.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hillary wins Oregon, and I will donate $50 to Bernie's campaign or any campaign of PoliGafs choosing. (It can't be to Queen, though....)

As a Minnesotan I would like to lobby hard for Angie Craig.

Why not to Hillary, maxed out already?

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

But the other 2 are on officially suspended campaigns, thats going to severely impact their results.

NECROMENTUM

 

[jack_package_200]

Oregonian.

Already seeing supporters say OPB is part of the establishment.

I am starting to hate the term establishment.

 

[FyreWulff]

I'm seeing these Nebraska exit poll data and while its only exit poll data and is limited in its ability to predict primary results, I'm still surprised at how favorable they seem to Trump. I thought Nebraksa was supposed to be a bad Trump state. IF Trump wins it, were those bad assumptions or are people just falling in line after the results of last week?

Nebraska is open for NP/Dem while closed for Republicans.

It's possible to have a ballot where you can vote against Hillary but for Trump but not the other way around. Also only a single delegate is bound to the popular election for the Dems, so the entire Dem stronghold is going to be low turnout as fuck.

 

[Bowdz]

http://bigstory.ap.org/ed853e2f84bd42658868a42f997c93fe

Fuck yeah. I'm glad to be part of a party and campaign that actually believes in data science.

Also, lol at that Oregon Dem poll. Bernie is not going to lose Oregon.

 

[Angry Grimace]

You can't just keep repeating a made-up term and hopes it becomes something.

I'm still Monawesome dammit...

Everyone knows exactly what "diablosing" means, so yeah

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Oregonian.

Already seeing supporters say OPB is part of the establishment.

I am starting to hate the term establishment.

At this point, I treat the word "establishment" as code for "my opinion is baseless and worth ignoring."

 

[Trancos]

I get the feeling that this is going to be a Yuuuuge margin for Bernie for a very small delegate gain. But I'm totally expecting a bloodbath.

 

[zero_suit]

I get the feeling that this is going to be a Yuuuuge margin for Bernie for a very small delegate gain. But I'm totally expecting a bloodbath.

Momentum!!

 

[mo60]

But the other 2 are on officially suspended campaigns, thats going to severely impact their results.

Yep. Trump could easily win well over 80% of the vote because of that unless people were allowed to vote for Cruz and Kasich before they suspended their campaigns.

 

[Trancos]

surprise /s: West Virginia called for Trump (NYT, AP, the Guardian)

 

[Trancos]

Exit Polls: Sanders 57 - Hillary 43. If that holds is not what I was expecting

 

[blackw0lf]

Exit Polls: Sanders 57 - Hillary 43. If that holds is not what I was expecting

Honestly that would be less than I was expecting

 

[Maledict]

Exit Polls: Sanders 57 - Hillary 43. If that holds is not what I was expecting

I honestly expected a much bigger blowout if that holds.

 

[User 463088]

As a Minnesotan I would like to lobby hard for Angie Craig.

Why not to Hillary, maxed out already?

I am ya. I was bored during my ban and maxed out.

 

[plagiarize]

Exit Polls: Sanders 57 - Hillary 43. If that holds is not what I was expecting

15 points would put Clinton at around her 538 target.

 

[Y2Kev]

It never holds. Tears incoming.

 

[Box of Kittens]

ok people, enough with the generalizations about Sanders supporters based on states like West Virginia and Oklahoma when the majority of states aren't like that

One thing that can get in the way of productive conversations about things like this is people not acknowledging that each candidate's support is a coalition. Bernie's voters include, among others, people who support him for his left wing stances, people who vote for him because they see him as anti-establishment, and people who just don't like Hillary (including some who are registered or identify as Democrats but will vote Republican in the fall).

This is also why statements about Hillary needing to win over Bernie's supporters should be qualified. Many will vote for her regardless while others won't vote for her under any circumstances. These aren't the Bernie supporters Hillary needs to be winning over.

 

[Suikoguy]

It never holds. Tears incoming.

It would put it fairly close to where benchmark expects though.

 

[BanGy.nz]

Exit polls will burn you every time.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Oh I didn't realise there was a primary today.

 

[User 463088]

I guess Portman had decided to get on the Trump nickname wagon. His online ads call Ted Strickland Retread Ted.

 

[googleplex]

At this point, I treat the word "establishment" as code for "my opinion is baseless and worth ignoring."

I thought I was the only one. :hugs:

 

[Iolo]

Exit Polls: Sanders 57 - Hillary 43. If that holds is not what I was expecting

If the final margin is like +25 or +35 Bernie, can we claim fraud?

Eh, why wait. Fraud!

 

[Fenderputty]

Calling for an additional exit poll to verify the validity of actual votes might be one of the dumbest things I've ever heard

Huelenical even.

 

[itschris]

If the final margin is like +25 or +35 Bernie, can we claim fraud?

Eh, why wait. Fraud!

Sorry, no. It's only fraud when Hillary beats the polls.

 

[Daniel B·]

From my earlier [post=203158558]post[/post], texting in the front row of a Bernie Sanders rally (shady looking guy on left; see start of video (below), for the damning evidence), really should be a federal offence, punishable by compulsory attendance of one of Hillary's more intimate gatherings (well, more than one would qualify as "cruel or unusual punishment") .



Given his plum position in the crowd, it's just not done, you know.

 

[Oceanwind]

So how come there aren't any results yet?

 

[BitStyle]

There's a bit of reporting for West Virginia on TheGuardian

 

[Box of Kittens]

They're starting to trickle in. Anyone know enough about West Virginia to say anything about what they mean? Hillary has the early lead, but I'm guessing these votes aren't representative of the state.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Clinton leads 50-41

Pack it up folks

Spoiler

/s

 

[hammysaurusrex]

Hillary with 9% lead with 1/1761 reporting - IT'S HAPPENING!!!

Spoiler

lol

 

[Trancos]

If the final margin is like +25 or +35 Bernie, can we claim fraud?

Eh, why wait. Fraud!

I've seen Bernie supporter using examples like Chile's 1988 plebiscite to oust Pinochet as proof that the international community (UN, etc) use exit polls as the final proof of everything. Exit polls are just a tiny fraction of what observers do. Yes they did exit polls but....

The most important thing they do to prevent fraud is rapid/independent counting. Volunteers at the precincts observe the counting and communicate tallies back to an independent headquarter in the same way that guy in GUAM was doing it last week posting the tallies in twitter.

Headquarters consolidate tallies and now you have a comparable number to the official results.

Governments are less likely to attempt to cook the number if someone else is counting nationally too.

That how it's been done in every election that needed special international attention.

 

[Suikoguy]

With record early voting, and that exit poll, it's going to be closer than many here are expecting.

 

[Tranqueris]

"Joining us now is Jeff Weaver"

Mute.

Close tab.

 

[studyguy]

So I just got my vote by mail ballot for CA.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Hillary up by 1 vote!

 

[Box of Kittens]

I've seen Bernie supporter using examples like Chile's 1988 plebiscite to oust Pinochet as proof that the international community (UN, etc) use exit polls as the final proof of everything. Exit polls are just a tiny fraction of what observers do. Yes they did exit polls but....

The most important thing they do to prevent fraud is rapid/independent counting. Volunteers at the precincts observe the counting and communicate tallies back to an independent headquarter in the same way that guy in GUAM was doing it last week posting the tallies in twitter.

Headquarters consolidate tallies and now you have a comparable number to the official results.

Governments are less likely to attempt to cook the number if someone else is counting nationally too.

That how it's been done in every election that needed special international attention.

Whenever I point out the common discrepancies between exit polls and actual results in the UK (which has the hand counted paper ballots that the conspiracy theorists claim would prevent fraud), the response is silence. In 1992 they overstated Labour's share of the vote enough to cause the exit poll based projection to be wrong (the projection was a "hung parliament" with no party holding a majority but the actual result was a Tory majority).

 

[Trancos]

~9% 'Other' seems quite high. Interesting.
Still expecting a bloodbath.

 

[Box of Kittens]

~9% 'Other' seems quite high. Interesting.
Still expecting a bloodbath.

This is the state that gave Obama less than 58% of the primary vote in 2012. The guy running against him was doing time.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So I just got my vote by mail ballot for CA.

Feel the bern