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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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T

TheFatOne

Member
TYT is so predictable. Sanders puts out a talking point, and they are going to parrot it to hell. Sanders has been talking about how he's the better GE candidate, and of course they keep beating that drum ignoring completely that the voters have already spoken. Shit is comical. I can't wait until he's out of the race, and comes out and campaigns for Hilary. Going to be funny watching TYT then.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
Adaren said:
Daniel B·;203167267 said:
What I'm saying is, I would bet purely Bernie supporters would be willing to pony up sufficient $27 donations to fund an independent exit poll
Click to expand...
Hm...

Also idk how you make a guaranteed-accurate exit poll. Just throwing some money at it isn't sufficient.
Click to expand...

I would hope there are organizations that conduct exit polls, whose reputation is largely based on the veracity of their polling. For these organizations, and for anyone interested in an accurate indication of the result, it shouldn't matter that one of the concerned parties paid for the poll.

And yes, I perfectly understand that by their very nature (essentially, not feasible to poll a high percentage of voters), an exit poll will have a margin of error, but we should be able to rely on a poll that meets internationally accepted standards, and where the recorded vote is well beyond this margin of error (I believe 2% is typical), as has been the case in many of the Democratic primaries, and almost always in Hillary's favor, we should be questioning the result.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Trump hasn't even hit the convention yet and it seems like every left-leaning voter in the country is looking for any reason to Diablos as much as possible. I could put out a poll of my next door neighbors and get a 100 gloom and doom responses.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
The movement of West Virginia away from the Democratic Party at a national level has been rapid. Check out this chart, which gives the Democratic margin in West Virginia, the Democratic margin nationally, and West Virginia's lean in that election (i.e. how much more Democratic or Republican it voted than the nation as a whole). I was a bit lazy here and used the raw margins instead of the two-party vote (i.e. ignoring third parties) but this gets the idea across.

Code: 
Year   WVDem   NatlDem   WVLean
1988   +4.74   -7.73     D+12.5
1992   +13.02  +5.56     D+7.5
1996   +14.75  +8.52     D+6.2
2000   -6.32   +0.52     R+6.8
2004   -12.86  -2.46     R+10.4
2008   -13.12  +7.27     R+20.4
2012   -26.76  +3.86     R+30.6

In 1988 it was one of ten states (plus DC) that voted for Dukakis. In terms of margin it was his sixth best state. Even though its Democratic lean had much diminished by 1996, it still gave Clinton a better margin over Dole than California. By 2012 it was Obama's fifth worst state. In 2008 Obama actually managed to do worse in West Virginia than Kerry did in 2004.

And that is how you end up with a bunch of registered Democrats in your state who will vote for Trump.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Angry Grimace said:
Trump hasn't even hit the convention yet and it seems like every left-leaning voter in the country is looking for any reason to Diablos as much as possible. I could put out a poll of my next door neighbors and get a 100 gloom and doom responses.
Click to expand...

It's a long road ahead, personally I'm tired already.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Daniel B·;203171416 said:
I would hope there are organizations that conduct exit polls, whos reputation is largely based on the veracity of their polling. For these organizations, and for anyone interested in an accurate indication of the result, it shouldn't matter that of one of the concerned parties payed for the poll.

And yes, I perfectly understand that by their very nature (essentially, not feasible to poll a high percentage of voters), an exit poll will have a margin of error, but we should be able to rely on a poll that meets internationally accepted standards, and where the recorded vote is well beyond this margin of error (I believe 2% is typical), as has been the case in many of the Democratic primaries, and almost always in Hillary's favor, we should be questioning the result.
Click to expand...

Here is what I read:

The Industrial Revolution, to me,
is just like a story I know...
..called The Puppy Who Lost His Way.
The world was changing...
..and the puppy was getting... bigger.
So, you see, the puppy was like industry,...
..in that they were both
lost in the woods,...
..and nobody, especially the little boy -
society - knew where to find them.
Except that the puppy... was a dog.
But the industry, my friends,...
..that was a revolution.
Knibb High football rules!
Click to expand...
 
G

gcubed

Member
Black Mamba said:
Here is what I read:
Click to expand...

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
 
C

Cipherr

Member
Angry Grimace said:
Trump hasn't even hit the convention yet and it seems like every left-leaning voter in the country is looking for any reason to Diablos as much as possible. I could put out a poll of my next door neighbors and get a 100 gloom and doom responses.
Click to expand...

Still not 2008 levels yet. It was really weird back then watching so many people (especially co-workers) that were 'liberal' and always had been, be VERY uncomfortable trying to find a way to say.... "yeah politically I want nothing to do with the right... But I can't vote for a Black guy". The struggle in their face as they tried to find out how to say that without offending me was real. I had to bail so many of them out by walking away or changing the subject, lol.

Its pretty bad with Hillary, but not nearly that bad. The GOP has seen Hillary coming for a while, so at least people have a few flimsy talk points to go to for her. There was no such thing for Obama, so they were just firing blanks.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
When there's high deviation between a sample based statistic and a measure of the full population... you don't question the validity of the full population result.

Huelenical.
 
E

Emarv

Member
HUELEN10 said:
You can't just keep repeating a made-up term and hopes it becomes something. :(

I'm still Monawesome dammit...
Click to expand...

reginageorge.gif
 
S

studyguy

Member
HUELEN10 said:
You can't just keep repeating a made-up term and hopes it becomes something. :(
Click to expand...

Basically the Trump motto though this election, repeat nonsense enough and eventually it'll twist reality into a pretzel.

If your terms didn't make it past the initial acceptance phase then it just means you weren't shitposting hard enough.
 
Q

QuantumBro

Banned
I figure someone in here will have an answer: If I'm registered in California with no party preference, is the only thing I can't vote on is the presidential primary (I can still vote on state, local, and US Congress primaries, right)?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
QuantumBro said:
I figure someone in here will have an answer: If I'm registered in California with no party preference, is the only thing I can't vote on is the presidential primary (I can still vote on state, local, and US Congress primaries, right)?
Click to expand...

You can vote in the Dem primary, just not the GOP primary.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
8 years ago WV dems voted for Hillary to oppose Obama

Over those 8 years Hillary embraces Obama's America and policies.

Today they vote overwhelmingly to reject Clinton.

Its not hard to figure out what's going in a large part of that 44%.

Does anyone have that video from WV in 2008?
 
Q

QuantumBro

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
You can vote in the Dem primary, just not the GOP primary.
Click to expand...

I was too lazy buy a stamp to mail in the postcard about primary voting, so I don't think my ballot is going to have Dem primary stuff on it. Election's over anyway so I don't care about not being able to vote on that, but I do want to vote on everything else.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
HUELEN10 said:
That's a thought... Any one of you PoliGAF regulars vote in the Republican primary? I know some people in the OT did.
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Thought about it. The Dem caucus and the GOP caucus were across the street from each other. The Dem caucus was packed, the GOP caucus was far more manageable.

I would have voted for Trump.
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
chiym1992 said:
48 Clinton - 33 Sanders

Bad poll? Outlier?
Click to expand...

That doesn't sound right to me. The age breakdowns show Bernie winning 64 percent under-45s, 45 percent of the over-45s, and only 33% total? Are they wildly oversampling older voters to arrive at that number? I know some people in my immediate family who were Bernie supporters who have switched their allegiance to Clinton, so I guess that could be happening, but there are still an awful lot of Bernie signs around Portland.
 
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