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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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And yet it still won't be the right time to talk about gun control. Fucking hell.
I can see the Obama news conference now. He'll come out, looking disappointed, give us a big sigh and ask what the hell is wrong with us.
Fucking hell, we could stop this shit from happening but for some reason we just can't be bothered. Fuck everything.
Watching Cruz respond to remarks concerning him dropping out because she is mathematically eliminated is awesome. He has no logically coherent argument for winning now and has had to twist himself so much in the past that it is all coming back to bite him in the ass.
It is important to remember that Sam Wang has Trump's chance at winning a majority before the convention at 66% and his chance at getting within 100 delegates at over 90%. I really think Manafort is having a positive impact on Trump's already decent chances of securing a majority.
Macho Madness
Member
5 days old. Jesus Christ.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Count me in for "cruel tax on the poor and uneducated." They function as a regressive tax and my view is that you need a good argument, beyond simply the revenue it will raise, to justify the good a regressive tax will do. I'd rather the revenue be raised through other means.
I do understand and appreciate the argument that people playing the lottery are choosing to do so, but to me that is uncomfortably close to an argument that just because you can exploit someone you should. I can't ignore the effects that it has.
And we aren't going to do shit about it. The fact is this nation should be ashamed of itself.
plagiarize
Banned
Like it or loathe it, poor people playing the lottery are basically paying a small amount of money to be able to dream about being wealthy and have it seem plausible. There is good and bad in that. I don't see them as something we should prioritize going after (I never play myself) but until we have more progressive tax incomes to balance it out I'd be against removing something major even if it is regressive.
I know, but I'd rather them have to sign a blood oath and be legally bound versus morally bound.
Macho Madness
Member
First legit poll out of Indiana
WTHR/HPI
Donald Trump 37%
Ted Cruz 31%
John Kasich 22%
Hillary Clinton 48%
Bernie Sanders 45%
No cross tabs yet with Pence/Gregg and Stutzman/Young.
WTHR/HPI
Donald Trump 37%
Ted Cruz 31%
John Kasich 22%
Hillary Clinton 48%
Bernie Sanders 45%
No cross tabs yet with Pence/Gregg and Stutzman/Young.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Honestly, I think a lot of Republicans were delusional about Obama's prospects for re-election. 2010 had them convinced he was the second coming of Carter.
But on the whole I agree that the entire Stop Trump effort is just kicking the can down the road. The conditions that led to Trump have been festering for decades and it's not enough to treat the symptoms. They need to deal with the problems caused by the Southern Strategy if they are to remain a viable national party in the long term, and the sooner they do so the better off they will be.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Indiana is the key to all this. Stay strong, Trumpy.
OH GOOOOODDD!!!!!
Looks like the insufferable John Kasich might cost Cruz in the state, lol. Fucking scrublets. DT, you've got this bro.
Macho Madness
Member
What might save Trump (and Bernie) is that Indiana is open:
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I thought Indiana would end up going to Bernie better than that. Don't know why though, given OH and IL didn't.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Will Independents even bother to show up? I imagine turnout will be down for Democrats now that the nominee is basically selected already.
Macho Madness
Member
That actually spells bad news for Trump potentially if you look at what happened in Ohio.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
What would Trump have to do in the campaign to lose WV in the general?
A): Call Hillary a c---
B): Show his cock during one of the debates.
C): Call for abolishing the right of women to vote
D): Compare himself to Hitler
E): Assault a black woman and end up in prison
F): Nothing, he will win West Virginia no matter what.
My favorite game other than "how many states would Hillary win in prison?"
A): Call Hillary a c---
B): Show his cock during one of the debates.
C): Call for abolishing the right of women to vote
D): Compare himself to Hitler
E): Assault a black woman and end up in prison
F): Nothing, he will win West Virginia no matter what.
My favorite game other than "how many states would Hillary win in prison?"
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Aaron Strife
Banned
You know McAuliffe would love a gig in another Clinton administration, but hopefully he'll stick around as gov until the end of his term (Virginia governors can only serve one) so he can appoint Kaine's replacement after he's made VP.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I like that that painting makes Hillary look like she's 100lbs heavier than she is.
Macho Madness
Member
I've seen some people call her obese and I want to know #whichhillary they're looking at
Box of Kittens
Banned
Well it's just a single poll but since it's Indiana this is pretty much all we have to go on. Good news for Trump, especially given how important the state is to his prospects for reaching 1237 (or at least striking distance).
I'm going to be really curious to see how the state votes. My suspicion is that the Indianapolis metro will be strong Cruz territory (it's similar in many ways to the Milwaukee area) while Northern Indiana is more likely to favor Trump (protectionism and racism will both play well there).
Southern Indiana is what I see as likely making the difference. There's a lot of religious conservatives there, which should in theory favor Cruz, but Trump did surprisingly well with religious conservatives in the South, and religious conservatives in Southern Indiana in many ways resemble their Southern counterparts more so than religious conservatives in much of the rest of the Midwest (the settlers in the area largely migrated from places like Virginia, and this has effects that last to this day). Looking at the results in Southern Ohio and Southern Illinois would seem to confirm to me that this is Trump territory. Anecdotally, I have lots of family down there and the things I see/hear suggest there's a lot of support for Trump, but of course you should always take anecdotes with a huge grain of salt.
This is what Sam Wang was talking about when he said that Kasich winning Ohio would be a net positive for Trump.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Btw a Clinton win in Indiana would be pretty devastating just because I feel most people are sort of pegging it and the other May states as Sanders by default, perhaps out of caution. He'll have no problem romping Oregon I'm sure, but I could very easily see IN, WV and KY all going for Clinton.
Also would be pretty hilarious if Clinton did win the Washington primary even if it's meaningless in terms of delegates. Like omg how dare those superdelegates stick by Clinton after she won our primary, everyone knows our bullshit caucuses are the most democratic way to determine anything.
Also would be pretty hilarious if Clinton did win the Washington primary even if it's meaningless in terms of delegates. Like omg how dare those superdelegates stick by Clinton after she won our primary, everyone knows our bullshit caucuses are the most democratic way to determine anything.
Macho Madness
Member
Look at the Kentucky border counties to see how southern Indiana could vote. Similarly, look at Cook county, IL to see how northwest Indiana will go.
The wildcard is Indy (Trump usually does well in urban areas).
Then you've got other cities like South Bend, Lafayette, Fort Wayne, Muncie etc. and I'm not sure how they would go.
The wildcard is Indy (Trump usually does well in urban areas).
Then you've got other cities like South Bend, Lafayette, Fort Wayne, Muncie etc. and I'm not sure how they would go.
FloydtheFathead
Member
That Indiana poll..
Please Jesus. Please..
Please Jesus. Please..
Macho Madness
Member
I think it would be devestating too. I don't think it's more diverse than Michigan.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I'm not even sure Sanders is going to still be in the race by the time Indiana comes around.
Macho Madness
Member
Chezzymann
Member
Super ancedotal but I went to southern Indiana for spring break to visit relatives and one of them who looked exactly like one of the guys from duck dynasty yelled "IM VOTIN' FER TRUMP" when the conversation went political
Macho Madness
Member
I drove through rural southern Indiana just last weekend. I only saw one yard sign for a presidential candidate.
TRUMP *click*
Aaron Strife
Banned
What's funny is even if he does drop out after Tuesday, he'll probably still win a few states, so you'll get to see the extra-delusional Bernie supporters insist he's still in it.
The big problem with the lottery-as-a-service argument is that it's a really shitty service. I think it's cheating to jump between "we're providing something people like" and "it's an important source of revenue" - these are separable goals and you can evaluate them as such.
Is the government doing a good job providing a valuable service? Not really. It's a monopoly provider that charges ridiculously high prices for its product - the profit margin on state lotteries is huge. It would be pretty outrageous if the government were to do this with any other product. If it is a good thing for people to be able to play the lottery then the government should allow competition or should at least stop being so predatory itself.
Is it a good idea to try to get more tax revenue specifically from poor people? I'd say no.
I think that the usual justification for the lottery requires thinking that people shouldn't be playing the lottery. That's what justifies the state banning competition and charging ridiculous prices for tickets - if you play the lottery you should pay a penalty. And then we're going to use this sin tax to fund education or whatever else. So really I don't think that the two justifications are even consistent. The regressive revenue extraction is justified because people who buy lottery tickets deserve to pay a penalty. If the lottery is actually a good and useful thing to have in its own right then we're just forcing people who like the lottery to pay a penalty that we don't force people who have other hobbies to pay (and it's suspicious that lottery players skew poor, etc.).
Box of Kittens
Banned
My concern with using Kentucky border counties is the caucus effect, but they do suggest Cruz could do well in Southern Indiana, which wouldn't be completely surprising given the evangelical factor. I'd still favor Trump in that area though.
I'm favoring Cruz in the Indianapolis area on the theory that it votes like the Milwaukee area. Both have suburbs that have remained particularly conservative even as suburban areas in most of the country have become more moderate. On the other hand, Cincinnati is somewhat similar and Cruz did quite poorly in the parts of Ohio in and around Cincinnati, but I'm attributing that to the unique circumstances of the Ohio primary. Cruz fared pretty well in the suburbs on the Kentucky side, though again there's the caucus issue.
Either way, I'm really interested to see how Indiana goes, not just because it's so important on the Republican side, but also to see the geography of each candidate's support.
Here is a precinct map of Ohio, thanks to Ryne Rohla on Twitter:
Trump didn't win most of the counties bordering Indiana, but he did pretty well, and the precinct map shows that he did best in the precincts that actually do border the state. And in the precincts that border Pennsylvania and West Virginia, Trump blowout.
Trump didn't win most of the counties bordering Indiana, but he did pretty well, and the precinct map shows that he did best in the precincts that actually do border the state. And in the precincts that border Pennsylvania and West Virginia, Trump blowout.
eBay Huckster
Member
So Nancy Pelosi is about to start speaking at an event @ OSU in a few minutes
And I'm literally right in front of a TV camera
And I'm literally right in front of a TV camera
Beer Monkey
Member
This from the party that failed at tech in the 2012 campaign.
Remember your ORCA software, jackass?
Macho Madness
Member
However, it's not all that relevant since nobody lives there.
You see that small cluster of red and green that borders Indiana in the southwest corner? That's right near Richmond, IN. It's not a big city but people do live there.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah but I want her to have a 500 delegate lead.
balladofwindfishes
Member
If the Dem race is over, how likely do you think it is a bunch of Democrats troll vote for Trump, enough to actually matter?
Put a shoe on your head so we know it's you.
Democrats have shown themselves to be idiots by crossing over to vote for Rubio or Kasich, depending on the state.
Veritigo_X
Member
For some reason democrats are dumb when it comes to crossing over. There are a lot of people really worried about Trump so they vote Kasich.
I had family considering doing that until I talked some sense into them.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I believe most people start with the base assumption that presidential elections are roughly 50-50, so Trump has every bit of chance as Hillary to become president.
I would parade Nate Silver's projections in 2012 to everyone I talked to and there were people still worried about that 10% chance that Romney would become president. One friend worried about "simply listening to what he wants to hear" which is ironic because he's the Bernie supporter getting all his news and insight on the race from TYT, but I digress.
The fact that the popular vote usually ends up being pretty close probably fuels that. Pundits were making complete asses of themselves trying to take down Nate's projections, like Morning Joe freaking out like "WHO believes that Obama will get 78% of the vote!?" Learn how probabilities work broseph.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
I thought, "Man, could they have picked anyone lamer than that pandering fuck Michael Steele?" years ago when Steele stepped down from chairing the GOP.
Then the GOP manages to drag Reince Priebus out from whatever hole he was birthed in, so there you go.
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