Well, after tomorrow, there's only nine contests left, one of which is a 7 delegate territory, the US Virgin Islands, 5 are small prize states, New Mexico, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana and DC, one is a mid-size territory, Puerto Rico, one is a large state, New Jersey, and the final one is the biggest state of all, California. Clinton is favored in a majority of them, save for some small states. So if he wants any sort of victory, he needs to get about 80% in every state moving forward.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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User 463088
Banned
I think Bernie needs 66.7% from here on out? I did the numbers during my break the other day, but they're on my work computer.
HUELEN10
Member
2/3rds? Doesn't seem that far off to other calculations I've seen. Truly a narrow, but visible path to victory.
This is from FiveThirtyEight on May 3rd, during Indiana's primary:
He already missed his targets in Guam and West Virginia, so he'd need to do a bit better than those already absurd numbers in the remaining states.
Holy fucking shit at those numbers. I'm kinda surprised Clinton began campaigning in Kentucky again.
I wish Clinton would do an event near me in CA (Sacramento)
Bernie did one, but I really didn't want to deal with crowds to see someone I mostly dislike now.
theprodigy
Member
65.66% actually, using The Green Papers
How many primaries has he won with 66% or more of the vote? That path to victory seems unrealistically optimistic, rather than just "narrow". Narrow would be having to win most of the remaining states by 5-10%, not having to win all of them by 15% or more.
Retromelon
Member
Oh thats right, as i recall it bliv likes S.E too. She might be poligaf's favorite conservative
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Holy fucking shit at those numbers. I'm kinda surprised Clinton began campaigning in Kentucky again.
I wish Clinton would do an event near me in CA (Sacramento)
Well, Trump being the nominee, in a way it puts all 50 states "in play" so to speak. Thinking long term, visiting all 50 states is not a bad way to campaign.
eBay Huckster
Member
"instead I'll just insert variables into this model so it does that for me"
HUELEN10
Member
Point is it's not impossible, and it proves that his decision to be in it and it not being over until it truly is over has some merit.
plagiarize
Banned
*Primaries*? His home state. That's it. He's won a few caucuses by large margins...
but if you add up all the delegates left in the two remaining states that hold caucuses...
you get 35.
So his margins in caucuses are no good to him at this point.
You don't honestly think he's staying in because he thinks he can win do you?
The guy is way more intelligent than that.
Here's something else he's too smart to attempt: Overturn the will of the voters at the convention.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Just 3 blocks from my living room, or thereabouts.
HUELEN10
Member
I absolutely believe that he believes he has a shot. That's why I voted for him, because I believe he can do it too.
plagiarize
Banned
You vote for him because you think he'd be the best President.
I really hope you didn't vote for him because you think he thinks he can win. That's a really strange reason to vote for someone.
And he won't win.
It's important that you vote so that everyone can see which demographics care about which issues. Staying home to vote because you don't think your guy can win is just a sure fire way to ensure that politicians never give a fuck about what you want.
shinra-bansho
Member
You're both wrong.
Dattebayo.
He wasn't on Rachels show.
HUELEN10
Member
Well, okay. He wasn't my top pick, but I voted for him because I like where he stands on issues I care about and I thought my vote could make a difference... I'm just hoping that it did. And even if it didn't, I don't regret voting for sanders, just like I don't regret voting for Obama or Ron Paul.
He is the first, and only candidate that has ever made me WANT to join the demmys just to vote... For me, that is huge.
So yes, you're right, I didn't vote for him merely because I Believe he can win, but I still want him to, and believe he can. Again, we will see.
plagiarize
Banned
I was just looking at election betting odds.com or whatever.
Trump isn't going to pick a white guy as his VP. I mean... he can't be that ignorant. He didn't just pick white guys on the apprentice.
If he is... we're talking the biggest landslide the democrats have seen in a long time. But he can't. He's got to see that he's losing certain demographics if he doesn't do something about it... and that he can't afford to lose those demographics.
Right?
Gingrich would at best tie up the establishment republican white male vote. That's it. That's nothing.
Voting always makes a difference. That's something I wish certain demographics would understand. Sanders campaign will have failed to make him the nominee, but it won't have failed to bring much more focus onto the sort of issues he fights for.
Trump isn't going to pick a white guy as his VP. I mean... he can't be that ignorant. He didn't just pick white guys on the apprentice.
If he is... we're talking the biggest landslide the democrats have seen in a long time. But he can't. He's got to see that he's losing certain demographics if he doesn't do something about it... and that he can't afford to lose those demographics.
Right?
Gingrich would at best tie up the establishment republican white male vote. That's it. That's nothing.
Voting always makes a difference. That's something I wish certain demographics would understand. Sanders campaign will have failed to make him the nominee, but it won't have failed to bring much more focus onto the sort of issues he fights for.
The trick is that people still need to voluntarily register to a party to vote in a primary since they are both closed. 76% of newly registred voters in OR failed to register for a party in time for this primary.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Rubio is literally this stupid.
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/732402556903821313?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
This is Scott Walker/Jeb Bush tier stupidity.
He is in Puerto Rico.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If he jumps back into the Senate race in Florida I feel like it will backfire tremendously.
I don't think there is anything trump can to do to actually stop losing certain demographics in this election. No VP he chooses will help him get the demographics he needs to beat Hilary or keep the race close.
I thought for a second donald trump actually replied to that tweet. Lol.
Anyway if rubio jumps back into the florida senate race he will not even win it and probably destroy whatever remains of his political career.
If the Jacksonville Jaguars are losing by 28 points in the fourth quarter, it's not impossible for them to win....it's just extremely unlikely that they would score 28+ unanswered points within the span of 8 -10 minutes of playtime, particularly given how poorly they played up until the beginning of the fourth quarter.
That's not to say that the Jaguars players themselves should give up and go home, but by that point most of their fans have already given up hope and are walking out to the parking lot. Sanders doesn't have to give up if he wants to fight all the way to the end, but anybody without their head in the clouds probably should have.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
eBay Huckster
Member
except at this point we're coming up on 4 minutes left and the jags drives keep ending in 3 and outs
Hope this comes back to bite the Philippines.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The Jaguars would also probably be benching guys like Bortles, Ramsey, and Myles Jack at that point to avoid injury so they could preserve their future goals.
Not sonic-y enough for the target audience.
I really don't know how to react to that article. I feel sorry for the Philippians that never voted for that guy especially the ones that may be in danger of feeling the effects of some of his dangerous policies(i.e like the hitting squads).
I doubt he jumps back in in the senate. I think he is being coy, either governor run or an implied "I'll probably never run for president again." My bet is the former.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
It's a "Trump won without being in political office so I can run for president in 2020 and win the nomination even if I'm not in political office in the next four years" tweet.
It's so fucking stupid.
VendettaRed07
Member
I kind of agree with the point that the Clinton campaign apparently made where they aren't going to do the "go for the center" 90s strategy. You really are wearing either a red shirt or blue shirt at this point.
I think the goal less trying to court would be Trump voters and more so courting the left leaning voters who would might stay home, or vote for Jill Stein or write in Frank Underwood or something. A VP who appeals to the Bernie wing, would help significantly more than likely any other type of VP pick.
I think the goal less trying to court would be Trump voters and more so courting the left leaning voters who would might stay home, or vote for Jill Stein or write in Frank Underwood or something. A VP who appeals to the Bernie wing, would help significantly more than likely any other type of VP pick.
Hillary only got this far because she grabbed Obama in a bear hug and didn't let go. I think it can't be understated how much Obama's unspoken support helped her. Sanders would've sunk her otherwise.
And Bortles just threw a pick six (no TV advertising in California)
would be trump supporters are probably more realistic and more numerous than people who would vote for Jill Stein, and probably easier to get. We are also talking tenths of a percentage point. I would greatly lose respect for Hillary if she did anything to the level that could convince some idiot voting for Jill Stein to switch to Hillary.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Ok, y'all. Predict KY and Oregon.
KY: Clinton +3
OR: Sanders +10
KY: Clinton +3
OR: Sanders +10
Whoa now, let's not get crazy. While bear hugging Obama definitely helped run up the margins, Bernie was never in a position to beat her.
VendettaRed07
Member
Right, but the alternative isn't any better.
I don't think appeal to the Trump voters is a road she or the Dems want to go down at all, considering what it would probably entail.
shinra-bansho
Member
The centre isn't about getting Trump voters. It's that there's more to be gained trying to coax socially liberal Republicans horrified with Trump. There are more self identified moderates than liberals. Crazy Bernie's crazy fans aren't going to decide the general election by voting for kooky Jill. Come November no one will care about him again.
Officerrob
Banned
Kentucky:Bernie +2
Oregon: Bernie +8
Shits Given: 0
Oregon: Bernie +8
Shits Given: 0
VendettaRed07
Member
I wouldn't say sunk but it would have been much closer. I think this is also evidence as to why Hillary should be doing something other than the Obama bear hug to get support from the progressive wing to get behind her.
VendettaRed07
Member
I feel like Hillary can make that appeal on her own, as the safe option or the non "risk" candidate, to republicans who really feel like the world will blow up if Trump wins.
I don't think those people will care who her VP is. Where as I think the Liberal base more so would.
But In the end I really have no idea what I'm talking about so w/e
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