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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
pigeon said:
Also, in general, funding policy programs with Pigouvian taxes is kind of dumb for obvious reasons. If universal pre-K works and you make a bunch of smart kids then one thing they might do is recognize the health problems caused by soda and stop drinking it. Then what do you do?

However getting the pre-K is what's important. Once it's in place it'll be easier to pass some other tax to pay for it if the soda tax is insufficient.
Click to expand...

Right, you answered your own question. If the program is entrenched already, you can make up the funding gap from a more educated populace that doesn't drink soda anymore in some other way, as people will have come to expect the service that was initially provided by the soda tax.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Maledict said:
I think if Trump is 100 or so delegates short, he'll offer the VP slot to Kasich to get his delegates behind him. Not sure if Kasich takes it, but it would make sense for Trump to offer that (and get the party establishment behind him).
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Trump won't be short.

He's projected to overperform in indiana (initial estimates had cruz winning that) and this is what california is looking like right now:

CgrE8WmWsAIW4ET.jpg


If this holds up he'll easily hit the pledged delegate total of 1237 in a walk- and that's not including the 200 or so unbound delegates (50 or so from PA which is Trump country right now) that aren't included in the fivethirtyeight estimate. Trump does about 40% or so nationally among republicans, he does that well among the unbound delegates it's an easy win for him.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-donald-trump-clinch-the-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/

Keep in mind as well that Trump's campaign against the RNC "rigging" the contest is working and his numbers are improving. Consecutive wins tend to also improve numbers and he's due for a pretty big streak there too. Outside of a scandal or a death, there's no way Trump doesn't take the nomination on the first ballot.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
pigeon said:
Also, in general, funding policy programs with Pigouvian taxes is kind of dumb for obvious reasons. If universal pre-K works and you make a bunch of smart kids then one thing they might do is recognize the health problems caused by soda and stop drinking it. Then what do you do?

However getting the pre-K is what's important. Once it's in place it'll be easier to pass some other tax to pay for it if the soda tax is insufficient.
Click to expand...

if universal Pre-K works then you have a bunch of smart kids that realize universal pre-K works and they should probably be funding it though whatever means are available.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
Maledict said:
I think if Trump is 100 or so delegates short, he'll offer the VP slot to Kasich to get his delegates behind him. Not sure if Kasich takes it, but it would make sense for Trump to offer that (and get the party establishment behind him).
Click to expand...

Doing so would not only poison him in Ohio should he lose (where he's seen as saintly compared to Trump) but if that poison trickles down to his top lieutenants, could poison the gubernatorial race in 2018 as well. All the top GOP candidates are expected to be from his administration, running off of his perceived success.
 
J

Jack The Nipper

Banned
Even if trump loses this way isn't he going to go in on his own or what not?

I mean he only loses cause they choose someone else. I don't think he will let that go down like that and it will really flare up his supporters and crush cruz
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
The purity tests are stupid.

Being against any tax increase that would impact the poor more than any other group, no matter what the raised funds will be spent on, is almost as stupid as being against any tax increase.

Soda taxes are gaining traction because it looks like they work relatively well. Plus it's not a tax on a necessity. We recently stopped buying soda and started drinking water instead, because we're trying to cut down what we spend on groceries. I can still have a soda as a treat when I want one, but it's not bulk of what I drink anymore. Sometimes the government can and should give people a little shove into healthier behaviors.

Especially if you're proposing single payer.

We're long overdue for realizing that a government that looks out for the health of the people it's governing isn't an inherently negative thing.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Can we just take a moment to reflect that the Republican Party has been taken over by people with the signature policy proposal of "We're going to build a wall and Mexico is going to pay for the wall"

Like, it feels like it's been overshadowed with how insane Trump and Cruz are about absolutely everything, but one of the two American political parties is really about to make extorting Mexico into paying for a 2000 mile long wall that will do absolutely nothing a key part of their platform.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
RustyNails said:
No and no. Trump's entire game is "these politicians". He's no way in fuck nominating a beltway insider like Kasich. One who's associated with toxifying the party in the first place (W.). Christie is just a fatter Trump but in office. He brings nothing new and daresay might start stealing Trump's thunder schtick. He will nominate a nutso Military general.
Click to expand...

So basically Allen West right?

west.jpg
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
A): The coal industry is already dead.
B): This comparison is creepy as fuck, mmkay, Cruz?

https://twitter.com/katiezez/status/723883842713604096
Click to expand...

Isn't it beautiful? Electricity generation is cleaner than it's been since the early 80s (total pollution is less! this isn't a per kWh stat).

I've got an engineer coming next week to survey our house for our upcoming solar installation, which is only possible for us right now because of the Solar incentives that Obama not long ago extended. We've got two electric cars on the drive, one a lease and one a purchase, again, only something we were able to afford because of EV tax credits.

Cruz would nuke those and try to bring back the coal industry, because of his ignorance on climate change and his belief it's all a big money making conspiracy.

We've got to let the unclean industries go to move towards cleaner industries. We have the knowledge and the technology, and the jobs lost will be replaced with cleaner ones. Yes, that sucks for areas of the country who have economies based around oil or coal but you can't keep polluting the planet unnecessarily just to protect localized economies. In time people will migrate to where the new jobs are, just as they migrated to where the coal and oil was in the first place.

Propping up a dying industry to protect jobs is about as anticapitalist as I can think of.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
nocturnalis said:
I'm a straight woman. I swear, PoliGAF has the highest gay concentration I've seen and I'm from the Los Angeles area.
Click to expand...

I think the fight for civil rights in the last ten years, and specifically its speed and effectiveness, has left GLBT folk politicized to a greater degree than others and, similarly, created an engaged left that is significantly gayer than the national average.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Makai said:
Excise taxes are very unfair.
Click to expand...

Less and less kids are smoking now thanks to excise taxes. I'll take it. Nothing is perfect. If we can't enact any change where one demographic might lose out, then we'll never enact change. You've got to look at the bigger picture... and you've got to be prepared to give a little to get something.

pigeon said:
I think the fight for civil rights in the last ten years, and specifically its speed and effectiveness, has left GLBT folk politicized to a greater degree than others and, similarly, created an engaged left that is significantly gayer than the national average.
Click to expand...

Or maybe they just feel more confident about getting involved in politics. And if you want to know why the left is gayer than the national average, you only have to look to the GOP. They were driven away from the right, more than they wanted to move to the left. Unless sexual orientation is somehow tied to a persons feelings about large government vs small government.
 
T

thcsquad

Member
Manmademan said:
probably not. prepackaged drinks are fixed in size. cans, 16oz bottles, 2L bottles, 1L bottles, sit down restaurant glasses, etc. This is where most of the revenue will be coming from.
Click to expand...

They aren't as fixed as you think. The 20oz bottle is relatively new, and really new are the 8oz cans. The latter have started to catch on, and I think they would really sell more if there was a per ounce sugar tax.

The regressive argument is a bit weird to me. I get that we generally don't like regressive taxes, but with stuff like this it inches towards 'preying on the poor' territory, like cigarettes and gambling. Should we start protecting payday loan sharks because they primarily serve the poor too?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
plagiarize said:
Isn't it beautiful? Electricity generation is cleaner than it's been since the early 80s (total pollution is less! this isn't a per kWh stat).

I've got an engineer coming next week to survey our house for our upcoming solar installation, which is only possible for us right now because of the Solar incentives that Obama not long ago extended. We've got two electric cars on the drive, one a lease and one a purchase, again, only something we were able to afford because of EV tax credits.

Cruz would nuke those and try to bring back the coal industry, because of his ignorance on climate change and his belief it's all a big money making conspiracy.

We've got to let the unclean industries go to move towards cleaner industries. We have the knowledge and the technology, and the jobs lost will be replaced with cleaner ones. Yes, that sucks for areas of the country who have economies based around oil or coal but you can't keep polluting the planet unnecessarily just to protect localized economies. In time people will migrate to where the new jobs are, just as they migrated to where the coal and oil was in the first place.

Propping up a dying industry to protect jobs is about as capitalist as I can think of.
Click to expand...

I mean, it's about as anti-capitalist as possible. Capitalism is supposed to eat alive the industries that don't evolve to meet new eras.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
I guess I hadn't fully woken up yet and realized this wasn't even a proposal she was making. Just saying that universal Pre-K is good and not knocking Philly's method of funding it.
 
T

thcsquad

Member
pigeon said:
Also, in general, funding policy programs with Pigouvian taxes is kind of dumb for obvious reasons. If universal pre-K works and you make a bunch of smart kids then one thing they might do is recognize the health problems caused by soda and stop drinking it. Then what do you do?

However getting the pre-K is what's important. Once it's in place it'll be easier to pass some other tax to pay for it if the soda tax is insufficient.
Click to expand...

That's why my idea is to fund programs that are directly related to the social harm caused by the thing you are taxing. Say, a carbon tax that directly funds all green energy research and loan programs. When nobody is producing carbon, the tax no longer has any use.

Ideally, as many government programs as possible would be funded in such a way, instead of broadly from general funds. Like the 'globalization unemployment safety net' funded by some kind of import mechanism, or a soda tax that funds healthy school lunch programs, etc.

In reality the taxing and funding amounts would be hard to get right in this way, because you need room for overages in social programs and such. But I think that even just thinking about the causes of social harms when creating laws and having some market prod in the right direction would be useful.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Superdelegate update:

In the past two days, Clinton picked up 11 more endorsements from superdelegates, according to an Associated Press survey.

Factoring in superdelegates, Clinton's lead stands at 1,941 to 1,191 for Sanders, according to the AP count. That puts her at 81 percent of the 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination
Click to expand...

What about after Tuesday?

At stake Tuesday are 384 delegates in primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. This group of contests offers Sanders one of the last chances left on the election calendar to gain ground in pledged delegates and make a broader case to superdelegates to support him.

Yet it appears Clinton could do well enough Tuesday to end the night with 90 percent of the delegates needed to win the nomination, leaving her just 200 or so shy.
Click to expand...

When superdelegates are included, Clinton's lead after an average performance on Tuesday would require Sanders to start winning far more than the three of every four delegates he needs now just to catch up.

Do a little better than that, and Clinton can reasonably expect to clinch the nomination by June 7 — before the first votes are even counted in California.
Click to expand...

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/3248...math-how-tuesday-could-close-door-sanders-bid
 
T

thcsquad

Member
Kristoffer said:
Cigarette tax punishes victims. Bad. Gas tax is not regressive at all. Good.
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I think the gas tax used to be more progressive, but in some metro areas the rich are displacing the poor from urban centers to far out places where they have to drive more mileage. It probably varies though, in the SF metro area I bet a gas tax would be highly regressive, whereas in Phoenix it would be progressive.

As an advocate for mass transit, I would love to see a highly increased gas tax to fund more transit, but the suburban poor (who were compelled to move to the suburbs via job sprawl) get forgotten a lot.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Macho Madness said:
I guess I hadn't fully woken up yet and realized this wasn't even a proposal she was making. Just saying that universal Pre-K is good and not knocking Philly's method of funding it.
Click to expand...

yep. Bernie wading in and shitting on the plan simply because Hillary had something nice to say about it is the very definition of a shitty, irresponsible thing to do.

It becomes clearer as the campaign goes on that Sanders is a grandstanding asshole who doesn't actually care about policy, as long as he gets his soapbox.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Pataki: Trump, Clinton horribly flawed
George Pataki said:
There's enormous negatives for Hillary, there's enormous negatives for Donald Trump. It's not the people, it's the candidates. They are both horribly flawed candidates. The solution is, nominate someone else.The race isn't over and I'm hopeful Donald Trump doesn't get the nomination locked up before the convention, I'm backing John Kasich and I think he's the type of candidate the american people say, republicans and democrats, here's a problem solver, here's someone who's going to put us instead of his political party or self interests first, and I think that's all we need.
Click to expand...
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
The only reason people see John Kasich as the "good guy" is because no one gives a shit about him so no one has bothered to attack him.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Chezzymann said:
The only reason people see John Kasich as the "good guy" is because no one gives a shit about him so no one has bothered to attack him.
Click to expand...

There was a NY Times article that called Hillary the "only true hawk left in the race."

John Kasich is running such a laughable campaign, he can't get noticed even when he's one of the five contenders left for president. Sad!
 
B

Bowdz

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
John Kasich is planning three simultaneous ground invasions of the Middle East and is promising to balance the budget by cutting taxes dramatically.

Sounds like a guy everyone would want as president.
Click to expand...

Yeah, this has slid by media scrutiny waaaay to long. It was absolutely jawdropping to hear him in the debate. He wants ground wars in Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan and he didn't even try to run from it. But hey, gee golly wow, you know, he's such a moderate guy let me tell you.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Chezzymann said:
The only reason people see John Kasich as the "good guy" is because no one gives a shit about him so no one has bothered to attack him.
Click to expand...

Even less than that I'd say - he's literally "Generic R" on the ballot right now. People don't really know anything about him, so to point to polling numbers as a sign of strength is a bit silly at this sage.

(I do think he'd be the strongest of the three candidates left, but he's not beating Hillary by that much. He would carry Ohio though which would be huge).
 
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